Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

Fate and Transport of Naproxen in a Sandy Aquifer Material: Saturated Column Studies and Model Evaluation

Naproxen-C14H14O3 is a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug which has been found at detectable concentrations in wastewater, surface water, and groundwater. Naproxen is relatively hydrophilic and is in anionic form at pH between 6 and 8. In this study, column experiments were performed using an unconsolidated aquifer material from an area near Barcelona (Spain) to assess transport and reaction mechanisms of Naproxen in the aquifer matrix under different pore water fluxes. Results were evaluated using HYDRUS-1D, which was used to estimate transport parameters. Batch sorption isotherms for Naproxen conformed with the linear model with a sorption coefficient of 0.42 (cm3 g−1), suggesting a low sorption affinity. Naproxen breakthrough curves (BTCs) measured in soil columns under steady-state, saturated water flow conditions displayed similar behavior, with no apparent hysteresis in sorption or dependence of retardation (R, 3.85-4.24) on pore water velocities. Soil sorption did not show any significant decrease for increasing flow rates, as observed from Naproxen recovery in the effluent. Sorption parameters estimated by the model suggest that Naproxen has a low sorption affinity to aquifer matrix. Most sorption of Naproxen occurred on the instantaneous sorption sites, with the kinetic sorption sites representing only about 10 to 40% of total sorption.

Estimation of the Proportion of Underachieving Students in Compulsory Secondary Education in Spain: An Application of the Rasch Model

There are very few studies in Spain that treat underachievement rigorously, and those that do are typically related to gifted students. The present study examined the proportion of underachieving students using the Rasch measurement model. A sample of 643 first-year high school students (mean age = 12.09; SD = 0.47) from 8 schools in the province of Alicante (Spain) completed the Battery of Differential and General Skills (Badyg), and these students' General Points Average (GPAs) were recovered by teachers. Dichotomous and Partial credit Rasch models were performed. After adjusting the measurement instruments, the individual underachievement index provided a total sample of 181 underachieving students, or 28.14% of the total sample across the ability levels. This study confirms that the Rasch measurement model can accurately estimate the construct validity of both the intelligence test and the academic grades for the calculation of underachieving students. Furthermore, the present study constitutes a pioneer framework for the estimation of the prevalence of underachievement in Spain.

Boston, Massachusetts Region, Digital Elevation Model with Bathymetry

This raster layer represents surface elevation and bathymetry data for the Boston Region, Massachusetts. It was created by merging portions of MassGIS Digital Elevation Model 1:5,000 (2005) data with NOAA Estuarine Bathymetric Digital Elevation Models (30 m.) (1998). DEM data was derived from the digital terrain models that were produced as part of the MassGIS 1:5,000 Black and White Digital Orthophoto imagery project. Cellsize is 5 meters by 5 meters. Each cell has a floating point value, in meters, which represents its elevation above or below sea level.

Simulation of Land Use and Investment Behaviour under Different Policy Scenarios: Results of the extended farm/household model. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 27, July 2012

Factor markets are a central issue in analyses of farm development and of agricultural sector vitality. Among the different production factors, land is one of the most studied. Several studies seek to estimate the effect of government policy payments on land value or land rental prices. The studies mostly agree that government payments and other types of policy support are significant in explaining land prices and account for a large share of them. In October 2011, the European Commission published a new policy proposal for the common agricultural policy (CAP) up to 2020. The proposed regulation includes a shift from historical to regional payments. The objective of this paper is to provide an ex ante analysis of the impact of the new CAP policy instruments on the land market. In particular, the effect of the regionalisation of payments in Italy is examined. The analysis is based on the use of a mathematical programming model to simulate the changes in land demand for a farm in Emilia Romagna. The results highlight the relevance of the new policy mechanism in determining a change in land demand. Yet the effect is highly dependent on initial ownership of entitlements under the historical payment scheme.

A daily rainfall erosivity model for Western Amazonia

Rainfall erosivities as defined by the R factor from the universal soil loss equation were determined for all events during a two-year period at the station La Cuenca in western Amazonia. Three methods based on a power relationship between rainfall amount and erosivity were then applied to estimate event and daily rainfall erosivities from the respective rainfall amounts. A test of the resulting regression equations against an independent data set proved all three methods equally adequate in predicting rainfall erosivity from daily rainfall amount. We recommend the Richardson model for testing in the Amazon Basin, and its use with the coefficient from La Cuenca in western Amazonia.

A liberation model for comminution based on probability theory

Mineral processing plants use two main processes; these are comminution and separation. The objective of the comminution process is to break complex particles consisting of numerous minerals into smaller simpler particles where individual particles consist primarily of only one mineral. The process in which the mineral composition distribution in particles changes due to breakage is called 'liberation'. The purpose of separation is to separate particles consisting of valuable mineral from those containing nonvaluable mineral. The energy required to break particles to fine sizes is expensive, and therefore the mineral processing engineer must design the circuit so that the breakage of liberated particles is reduced in favour of breaking composite particles. In order to effectively optimize a circuit through simulation it is necessary to predict how the mineral composition distributions change due to comminution. Such a model is called a 'liberation model for comminution'. It was generally considered that such a model should incorporate information about the ore, such as the texture. However, the relationship between the feed and product particles can be estimated using a probability method, with the probability being defined as the probability that a feed particle of a particular composition and size will form a particular product particle of a particular size and composition. The model is based on maximizing the entropy of the probability subject to mass constraints and composition constraint. Not only does this methodology allow a liberation model to be developed for binary particles, but also for particles consisting of many minerals. Results from applying the model to real plant ore are presented. A laboratory ball mill was used to break particles. The results from this experiment were used to estimate the kernel which represents the relationship between parent and progeny particles. A second feed, consisting primarily of heavy particles subsampled from the main ore was then ground through the same mill. The results from the first experiment were used to predict the product of the second experiment. The agreement between the predicted results and the actual results are very good. It is therefore recommended that more extensive validation is needed to fully evaluate the substance of the method. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Equity weights in the allocation of health care: the rank-dependent QALY model

This paper introduces the rank-dependent quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) model, a new method to aggregate QALYs in economic evaluations of health care. The rank-dependent QALY model permits the formalization of influential concepts of equity in the allocation of health care, such as the fair innings approach, and it includes as special cases many of the social welfare functions that have been proposed in the literature. An important advantage of the rank-dependent QALY model is that it offers a straightforward procedure to estimate equity weights for QALYs. We characterize the rank-dependent QALY model and argue that its central condition has normative appeal. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions I. Model development

Cereal-legume intercropping plays an important role in subsistence food production in developing countries, especially in situations of limited water resources. Crop simulation can be used to assess risk for intercrop productivity over time and space. In this study, a simple model for intercropping was developed for cereal and legume growth and yield, under semi-arid conditions. The model is based on radiation interception and use, and incorporates a water stress factor. Total dry matter and yield are functions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the fraction of radiation intercepted and radiation use efficiency (RUE). One of two PAR sub-models was used to estimate PAR from solar radiation; either PAR is 50% of solar radiation or the ratio of PAR to solar radiation (PAR/SR) is a function of the clearness index (K-T). The fraction of radiation intercepted was calculated either based on Beer's Law with crop extinction coefficients (K) from field experiments or from previous reports. RUE was calculated as a function of available soil water to a depth of 900 mm (ASW). Either the soil water balance method or the decay curve approach was used to determine ASW. Thus, two alternatives for each of three factors, i.e., PAR/SR, K and ASW, were considered, giving eight possible models (2 methods x 3 factors). The model calibration and validation were carried out with maize-bean intercropping systems using data collected in a semi-arid region (Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa) during seven growing seasons (1996/1997-2002/2003). The combination of PAR estimated from the clearness index, a crop extinction coefficient from the field experiment and the decay curve model gave the most reasonable and acceptable result. The intercrop model developed in this study is simple, so this modelling approach can be employed to develop other cereal-legume intercrop models for semi-arid regions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Critical behavior of one-particle spectral weights in the transverse Ising model

We investigate the critical behavior of the spectral weight of a single quasiparticle, one of the key observables in experiment, for the particular case of the transverse Ising model. Series expansions are calculated for the linear chain and the square and simple cubic lattices. For the chain model, a conjectured exact result is discovered. For the square and simple cubic lattices, series analyses are used to estimate the critical exponents. The results agree with the general predictions of Sachdev [Quantum Phase Transitions (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1999)].

Designs for generalized linear models with several variables and model uncertainty

Standard factorial designs sometimes may be inadequate for experiments that aim to estimate a generalized linear model, for example, for describing a binary response in terms of several variables. A method is proposed for finding exact designs for such experiments that uses a criterion allowing for uncertainty in the link function, the linear predictor, or the model parameters, together with a design search. Designs are assessed and compared by simulation of the distribution of efficiencies relative to locally optimal designs over a space of possible models. Exact designs are investigated for two applications, and their advantages over factorial and central composite designs are demonstrated.

Using epidemiological models to estimate the health effects of diet behaviour change: the example of tailored fruit and vegetable promotion

Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for categorical longitudinal data from a social survey of immigrants

The paper investigates a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of categorical longitudinal data from a large social survey of immigrants to Australia. Data for each subject are observed on three separate occasions, or waves, of the survey. One of the features of the data set is that observations for some variables are missing for at least one wave. A model for the employment status of immigrants is developed by introducing, at the first stage of a hierarchical model, a multinomial model for the response and then subsequent terms are introduced to explain wave and subject effects. To estimate the model, we use the Gibbs sampler, which allows missing data for both the response and the explanatory variables to be imputed at each iteration of the algorithm, given some appropriate prior distributions. After accounting for significant covariate effects in the model, results show that the relative probability of remaining unemployed diminished with time following arrival in Australia.

Blurred edges look faint, and faint edges look sharp:The effect of a gradient threshold in a multi-scale edge coding model

A multi-scale model of edge coding based on normalized Gaussian derivative filters successfully predicts perceived scale (blur) for a wide variety of edge profiles [Georgeson, M. A., May, K. A., Freeman, T. C. A., & Hesse, G. S. (in press). From filters to features: Scale-space analysis of edge and blur coding in human vision. Journal of Vision]. Our model spatially differentiates the luminance profile, half-wave rectifies the 1st derivative, and then differentiates twice more, to give the 3rd derivative of all regions with a positive gradient. This process is implemented by a set of Gaussian derivative filters with a range of scales. Peaks in the inverted normalized 3rd derivative across space and scale indicate the positions and scales of the edges. The edge contrast can be estimated from the height of the peak. The model provides a veridical estimate of the scale and contrast of edges that have a Gaussian integral profile. Therefore, since scale and contrast are independent stimulus parameters, the model predicts that the perceived value of either of these parameters should be unaffected by changes in the other. This prediction was found to be incorrect: reducing the contrast of an edge made it look sharper, and increasing its scale led to a decrease in the perceived contrast. Our model can account for these effects when the simple half-wave rectifier after the 1st derivative is replaced by a smoothed threshold function described by two parameters. For each subject, one pair of parameters provided a satisfactory fit to the data from all the experiments presented here and in the accompanying paper [May, K. A. & Georgeson, M. A. (2007). Added luminance ramp alters perceived edge blur and contrast: A critical test for derivative-based models of edge coding. Vision Research, 47, 1721-1731]. Thus, when we allow for the visual system's insensitivity to very shallow luminance gradients, our multi-scale model can be extended to edge coding over a wide range of contrasts and blurs. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.