Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically-motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly-sized finite populations. The extension to unequal sized households is discussed briefly.

The contribution of Angola to the early spread of the HIV-1 epidemic

Poster presented at the 22nd International HIV Dynamics and Evolution. Budapest, Hungary, 13-16 May 2015

Power Study on Testing Epidemic Alternatives

Detecting change points in epidemic models has been studied by many scholars. Yao (1993) summarized five existing test statistics in the literature. Out of those test statistics, it was observed that the likelihood ratio statistic showed its standout power. However, all of the existing test statistics are based on an assumption that population variance is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in practice. To avoid assuming known population variance, a new test statistic for detecting epidemic models is studied in this thesis. The new test statistic is a parameter-free test statistic which is more powerful compared to the existing test statistics. Different sample sizes and lengths of epidemic durations are used for the power comparison purpose. Monte Carlo simulation is used to find the critical values of the new test statistic and to perform the power comparison. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation result, it can be concluded that the sample size and the length of the duration have some effect on the power of the tests. It can also be observed that the new test statistic studied in this thesis has higher power than the existing test statistics do in all of cases.

Epizootic and epidemic dermatophytose outbreaks caused byTrichophyton mentagrophytesfrom rabbits in Portugal, 2015

We report an outbreak of dermatophytoses in rabbits, which was the origin of a dermatophytose epidemic in an agricultural school in central Portugal, affecting 15 people. Both the phenotypic characteristics and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequence of the dermatophytes isolated from the rabbits and patients were identical, suggesting that a single strain was responsible for both the epizootic and epidemic dermatophytoses and confirming that these two outbreaks were linked. The ITS sequences were also 100% identical to the ITS sequence of five strains isolated from rabbits in Greece and Italy, but different from that of Trichophyton mentagrophytes commonly isolated from dogs and cats. These results suggest that a particular T. mentagrophytes genotype could be prevalent in rabbits in southern Europe.

Outbreak of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus in Portugal, 2015

An outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in the South of Portugal in January 2015 and the spread of PEDV northwards in the territory are described. Comparative analysis of the amplified sequences showed a very high (99.0%) identity with the PEDV variant most recently reported in the United States and also show complete (100%) identity to the strains recently reported in Germany, supporting the hypothesis that a unique strain is currently circulating in Europe. The origin of this PEDV variant still needs to be elucidated and further studies in the remaining European countries may contribute to the knowledge.

2016 Eastern Equine Encephalitis Activity

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected mosquito. Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) is a rare illness in humans, and only a few cases are reported in the United States each year. Most cases occur in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Most people infected with EEEV have no apparent illness. Severe cases of EEE (involving encephalitis, an inflammation of the brain) begin with the sudden onset of headache, high fever, chills, and vomiting. The illness may then progress into disorientation, seizures, or coma. EEE virus is one of the most severe mosquito transmitted diseases in the United States with approximately 33% mortality and significant brain damage in most survivors. There is no specific treatment for EEE; care is based on symptoms. You can reduce your risk of being infected with EEEV by using insect repellent, wearing protective clothing, and staying indoors while mosquitoes are most active.

Infección por virus sincitial respiratorio y su relación con valores de IGG en niños críticos

Antecedente: La infección por el virus sincitial respiratorio (VSR) representa una elevada morbimortalidad, y en algunos casos necesidad de manejo en unidades de cuidado intensivo pediátrico (UCIP). La respuesta inmunológica influye de manera directa en la expresión de la severidad y pronóstico de los pacientes con infección respiratoria. Metodología: Estudio de una cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con infección respiratoria grave secundaria a VSR, sin historia de inmunodeficiencia, atendidos en la UCIP del Hospital Universitario Clínica San Rafael. Se realizó análisis descriptivoglobaly de acuerdo a la categorización de las prueba de IgG. Resultados: De 188 pacientes que ingresaron a la UCIP, 13% presentaron infección por VSR (24), con una edad promedio de 7,3 (DE=3,6) meses. Pertenecían al sexo masculino79,83%. Se encontró que 12,5% tenían un valor de IgGbajo para su edad, 58,33% tenían valores en límite inferior y el 29,17% dentro de rangos normales para su edad. En los pacientes con IgG baja, fue mayor la presentación de choque séptico que no responde a líquidos (100 vs 92 vs 86%), la mediana de días de ventilación mecánica fue mayor (8 vs 6 vs 5 respectivamente), así como la mortalidad (67 vs 7,1 vs 0%). Conclusión: Nuestra serie encontró que aquellos pacientes con niveles bajos o valores en el límite inferior de IgG sérica tuvieron mayor compromiso sistémico, mayor duración de ventilación mecánica y mayor mortalidad. Se necesitan estudios prospectivos que relaciones niveles bajos de IgG con severidad y pronostico en estos pacientes con infección grave por VSR.

Obesity Versus Osteoarthritis: Beyond The Mechanical Overload.

Obesity is currently considered a major public health problem in the world, already reaching epidemic characteristics, according to the World Health Organization. Excess weight is the major risk factor associated with various diseases, such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia and osteometabolic diseases, including osteoporosis and osteoarthritis. Osteoarthritis is the most prevalent rheumatic disease and the leading cause of physical disability and reduced quality of life of the population over 65 years. It mainly involves the joints that bear weight - knees and hips. However, along with the cases of obesity, its prevalence is increasing, and even in other joints, such as hands. Thus, it is assumed that the influence of obesity on the development of OA is beyond mechanical overload. The purpose of this review was to correlate the possible mechanisms underlying the genesis and development of these two diseases. Increased fat mass is directly proportional to excessive consumption of saturated fatty acids, responsible for systemic low-grade inflammation condition and insulin and leptin resistance. At high levels, leptin assumes inflammatory characteristics and acts in the articular cartilage, triggering the inflammatory process and changing homeostasis this tissue with consequent degeneration. We conclude that obesity is a risk factor for osteoarthritis and that physical activity and changes in diet composition can reverse the inflammatory and leptin resistance, reducing progression or preventing the onset of osteoarthritis.

Variability Modeling Of Rainfall, Deforestation, And Incidence Of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis In Orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

Tratamento clínico da epilepsia resistente

The authors analysed 34 cases of resistant epilepsy (20 males and 14 females, mean age 23 years), treated clinically between February/1984 and May/1986. The patients underwent neurological, neuropsychological, psychological, psychiatric, cerebrospinal fluid, electroencephalographic, tomographic and/or angiographic examination. Most of the patients had complex partial seizures. The etiology was unknown in 19 patients (55.8%), probable neurocysticercosis in 6, perinatal hypoxia in 5, delivery trauma in 3 and probable sequelae of encephalitis in 2 patients. There was a clear past history of infantile febrile convulsion in 2 patients. Most patients received carbamazepine (mean dose 24.5 mg/kg/day), phenytoin (5 mg/kg and valproic acid (28 mg/kg) as monotherapy or in association. Twenty-two patients (64.7%) had more than 80% decrease of the seizure frequency. Nine resistant epilepsy-cases (24.5%) were evaluated as candidates for surgical therapy. The authors concluded that the resistant epilepsy is best managed by a specialised, multidisciplinary team, and pointed out the need of a correct diagnosis of the seizure type, an adequate drug therapy and a good engagement of the patient and his family in the treatment.

Deep Water Running para redução da gordura corporal em mulheres na meia idade : estudo de intervenção em Campinas - SP

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Evolução temporal da dengue no município de Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, 1994 a 2003

Este estudo caracteriza-se epidemiológico-descritivo com objetivo de descrever a evolução temporal dos casos de dengue em Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, no período de 1994 a 2003, segundo mês de ocorrência e sexo. Os dados foram obtidos junto às fichas de notificação compulsória fornecidas pela Vigilância Epidemiológica da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do município. Foram obtidos os coeficientes de incidência por 100.000 habitantes, segundo estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. O município viveu uma epidemia de dengue no ano de 2001, quando o coeficiente de incidência chegou a 619,65 casos/100.000 habitantes, sendo que dentre os 5.553 casos encontrados no período estudado, 0,07% ocorreram no ano de 1994, 3,68% em 1995, 4,52% em 1996, 2,40% em 1997, 1,82% em 1998, 5,73% em 1999, 3,75% em 2000, 57,37% em 2001, 6,25% em 2002 e, 14,39% em 2003 . Os meses do ano de maior ocorrência da doença foram de janeiro a maio. Em relação à variável sexo, a proporção entre o número de casos foi de aproximadamente 1:1, mostrando pequenas flutuações de casos de dengue entre homens e mulheres, para todo período estudado. Os resultados apontam a necessidade do desenvolvimento de estudos sobre a temática e reforçam o papel das instituições de ensino na questão da dengue no nosso país.

Popularização do autoexame da boca: um exemplo de educação não formal - Parte II

Um dos maiores desafios das universidades, em especial das públicas, é transpor o conhecimento científico produzido entre seus muros para a população em geral. A educação não formal é uma ferramenta importante e ainda pouco utilizada pelos pesquisadores e docentes para aproximar o cotidiano do conhecimento científico. O câncer de boca atinge mais 11.000 brasileiros por ano. A despeito da alta incidência, esta patologia é ainda pouco conhecida da população em geral e de parte da classe médica e odontológica. Baseando-se nos dados epidemiológicos, em pesquisas e artigos científicos, o câncer de boca foi o tema eleito para a ação em educação e comunicação da primeira campanha nacional, de caráter não governamental, de prevenção de câncer de boca, um ótimo exemplo de como isso pode ser feito. Este trabalho se propõe a descrever a metodologia de comunicação utilizada e os resultados obtidos nesta experiência.

A novel A2 allele found in Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a widely spread zoonotic disease. In Brazil the disease is caused by Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi. Peridomestic sandflies acquire the etiological agent by feeding on blood of infected reservoir animals, such as dogs or wildlife. The disease is endemic in Brazil and epidemic foci have been reported in densely populated cities all over the country. Many clinical features of Leishmania infection are related to the host-parasite relationship, and many candidate virulence factors in parasites that cause VL have been studied such as A2 genes. The A2 gene was first isolated in 1994 and then in 2005 three new alleles were described in Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum. In the present study we amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequenced the A2 gene from the genome of a clonal population of L. (L.) infantum chagasi VL parasites. The L. (L.) infantum chagasi A2 gene was amplified, cloned, and sequenced in. The amplified fragment showed approximately 90% similarity with another A2 allele amplified in Leishmania (Leishmania) donovani and in L.(L.) infantum described in literature. However, nucleotide translation shows differences in protein amino acid sequence, which may be essential to determine the variability of A2 genes in the species of the L. (L.) donovani complex and represents an additional tool to help understanding the role this gene family may have in establishing virulence and immunity in visceral leishmaniasis. This knowledge is important for the development of more accurate diagnostic tests and effective tools for disease control.