Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

New England idyls, Op. 62

Soitinnus: Piano.

The geologic and geomorphologic maps of Santa Coloma de Farners (Girona, Spain)

Notice about the geologic and geomorphologic maps of Santa Coloma de Farners, at scale 1:10,000 published by Unitat de Geologia of the Universitat de Girona

Geologic maps published by university de Girona's unity of geodynamics

In 1978 University de Girona's Unity of Geodynamics started publishing geological maps, in several themes and scales, of various areas of the Province of Girona (fig. 1). So far, up to 38 maps, gathered in several collections, have been published

A Note on the periodic orbits and topological entropy of graph maps

This paper deals with the relationship between the periodic orbits of continuous maps on graphs and the topological entropy of the map. We show that the topological entropy of a graph map can be approximated by the entropy of its periodic orbits

Om nyttan som England kan hafwa af sina nybyggen i norra America

Inv: Med Guds Hjelp.

Chemotaxonomy of three genera of the annonaceae family using self-organizing maps and 13C NMR data of diterpenes

The Annonaceae family is distributed throughout Neotropical regions of the world. In Brazil, it covers nearly all natural formations particularly Annona, Xylopia and Polyalthia and is characterized chemically by the production of sources of terpenoids (mainly diterpenes), alkaloids, steroids, polyphenols and, flavonoids. Studies from 13C NMR data of diterpenes related with their botanical occurrence were used to generate self-organizing maps (SOM). Results corroborate those in the literature obtained from morphological and molecular data for three genera and the model can be used to project other diterpenes. Therefore, the model produced can predict which genera are likely to contain a compound.

Distortion properties of quasiconformal maps

In this Licentiate thesis we investigate the absolute ratio δ, j, ˜j and hyperbolic ρ metrics and their relations with each other. Various growth estimates are given for quasiconformal mpas both in plane and space. Some Hölder constants were refined with respect δ, j ˜j metrics. Some new results regarding the Hölder continuity of quasiconformal and quasiregular mapping of unit ball with respect to Euclidean and hyperbolic metrics are given, which were obtained by many authors in 1980’s. Applications are given to the study of metric space, quasiconformal and quasiregular maps in the plane and as well as in the space.

Cadastral maps of irrigated areas by center pivots in the State of Minas Gerais, using CBERS-2B/CCD satellite imaging

Medium-resolution satellite images have been widely used for the identification and quantification of irrigated areas by center pivot. These areas, which present predominantly circular forms, can be easily identified by visual analyses of these images. In addition to identifying and quantifying areas irrigated by center pivot, other information that is associated to these areas is fundamental for producing cadastral maps. The goal of this work was to generate cadastral mapping of areas irrigated by center pivots in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, with the purpose of supplying information on irrigated agriculture. Using the satellite CBERS2B/CCD, images were used to identify and quantify irrigated areas and then associate these areas with a database containing information about: irrigated area, perimeter, municipality, path row, basin in which the pivot is located, and the date of image acquisition.3,781 center pivots systems were identified. The smallest area irrigated was 4.6 hectares and the largest one was 192.6 hectares. The total estimated value of irrigated area was 254,875 hectares. The largest number of center pivots appeared in the municipalities of Unaí and Paracatu, with 495 and 459 systems, respectively. Cadastral mapping is a very useful tool to assist and enhance information on irrigated agriculture in the State of Minas Gerais.

Determination of management zones from normalized and standardized equivalent produtivity maps in the soybean culture

Through the site-specific management, the precision agriculture brings new techniques for the agricultural sector, as well as a larger detailing of the used methods and increase of the global efficiency of the system. The objective of this work was to analyze two techniques for definition of management zones using soybean yield maps, in a productive area handled with localized fertilization and other with conventional fertilization. The sampling area has 1.74 ha, with 128 plots with site-specific fertilization and 128 plots with conventional fertilization. The productivity data were normalized by two techniques (normalized and standardized equivalent productivity), being later classified in management zones. It can be concluded that the two methods of management zones definition had revealed to be efficient, presenting similarities in the data disposal. Due to the fact that the equivalent standardized productivity uses standard score, it contemplates a better statistics justification.

Comparison measures of maps generated by geostatistical methods

This study uses several measures derived from the error matrix for comparing two thematic maps generated with the same sample set. The reference map was generated with all the sample elements and the map set as the model was generated without the two points detected as influential by the analysis of local influence diagnostics. The data analyzed refer to the wheat productivity in an agricultural area of 13.55 ha considering a sampling grid of 50 x 50 m comprising 50 georeferenced sample elements. The comparison measures derived from the error matrix indicated that despite some similarity on the maps, they are different. The difference between the estimated production by the reference map and the actual production was of 350 kilograms. The same difference calculated with the mode map was of 50 kilograms, indicating that the study of influential points is of fundamental importance to obtain a more reliable estimative and use of measures obtained from the error matrix is a good option to make comparisons between thematic maps.

Comparison of maps of spatial variability of soil resistance to penetration constructed with and without covariables using a spatial linear model

A study about the spatial variability of data of soil resistance to penetration (RSP) was conducted at layers 0.0-0.1 m, 0.1-0.2 m and 0.2-0.3 m depth, using the statistical methods in univariate forms, i.e., using traditional geostatistics, forming thematic maps by ordinary kriging for each layer of the study. It was analyzed the RSP in layer 0.2-0.3 m depth through a spatial linear model (SLM), which considered the layers 0.0-0.1 m and 0.1-0.2 m in depth as covariable, obtaining an estimation model and a thematic map by universal kriging. The thematic maps of the RSP at layer 0.2-0.3 m depth, constructed by both methods, were compared using measures of accuracy obtained from the construction of the matrix of errors and confusion matrix. There are similarities between the thematic maps. All maps showed that the RSP is higher in the north region.

Soybean yield maps using regular and optimized sample with different configurations by simulated annealing

ABSTRACT This study aimed to compare thematic maps of soybean yield for different sampling grids, using geostatistical methods (semivariance function and kriging). The analysis was performed with soybean yield data in t ha-1 in a commercial area with regular grids with distances between points of 25x25 m, 50x50 m, 75x75 m, 100x100 m, with 549, 188, 66 and 44 sampling points respectively; and data obtained by yield monitors. Optimized sampling schemes were also generated with the algorithm called Simulated Annealing, using maximization of the overall accuracy measure as a criterion for optimization. The results showed that sample size and sample density influenced the description of the spatial distribution of soybean yield. When the sample size was increased, there was an increased efficiency of thematic maps used to describe the spatial variability of soybean yield (higher values of accuracy indices and lower values for the sum of squared estimation error). In addition, more accurate maps were obtained, especially considering the optimized sample configurations with 188 and 549 sample points.

The passing of Protestant England

Kirjallisuusarvostelu