Flood analysis of the clare river catchment considering traditional factors and climate change

The main objective of this thesis on flooding was to produce a detailed report on flooding with specific reference to the Clare River catchment. Past flooding in the Clare River catchment was assessed with specific reference to the November 2009 flood event. A Geographic Information System was used to produce a graphical representation of the spatial distribution of the November 2009 flood. Flood risk is prominent within the Clare River catchment especially in the region of Claregalway. The recent flooding events of November 2009 produced significant fluvial flooding from the Clare River. This resulted in considerable flood damage to property. There were also hidden costs such as the economic impact of the closing of the N17 until floodwater subsided. Land use and channel conditions are traditional factors that have long been recognised for their effect on flooding processes. These factors were examined in the context of the Clare River catchment to determine if they had any significant effect on flood flows. Climate change has become recognised as a factor that may produce more significant and frequent flood events in the future. Many experts feel that climate change will result in an increase in the intensity and duration of rainfall in western Ireland. This would have significant implications for the Clare River catchment, which is already vulnerable to flooding. Flood estimation techniques are a key aspect in understanding and preparing for flood events. This study uses methods based on the statistical analysis of recorded data and methods based on a design rainstorm and rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood flows. These provide a mathematical basis to evaluate the impacts of various factors on flooding and also to generate practical design floods, which can be used in the design of flood relief measures. The final element of the thesis includes the author’s recommendations on how flood risk management techniques can reduce existing flood risk in the Clare River catchment. Future implications to flood risk due to factors such as climate change and poor planning practices are also considered.

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?

Econometric analysis has been inconclusive in determining the contribution that increased skills have on macroeconomic performance whilst conventional growth accounting approaches to the same problem rest on restrictive assumptions. We propose an alternative micro-to-macro method which combines elements of growth accounting and numerical general equilibrium modelling. The usefulness of this approach for applied education policy analysis is demonstrated by evaluating the macroeconomic impact on the Scottish economy of a single graduation cohort from further education colleges. We find the macroeconomic impact to be significant. From a policy point of view this supports a revival of interest in the conventional teaching role of education institutions.

The Impacts of Temporary and Anticipated Tourism Spending.

Part of the local economic impact of a major sporting event comes from the associated temporary tourism expenditures. Typically demand-driven Input-Output (IO) methods are used to quantify the impacts of such expenditures. However, IO modelling has specific weaknesses when measuring temporary tourism impacts; particular problems lie in its treatment of factor supplies and its lack of dynamics. Recent work argues that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis is more appropriate and this has been widely applied. Neglected in this literature however is an understanding of the role that behavioural characteristics and factor supply assumptions play in determining the economic impact of tourist expenditures, particularly where expenditures are temporary (i.e. of limited duration) and anticipated (i.e. known in advance). This paper uses a CGE model for Scotland in which agents can have myopic- or forward-looking behaviours and shows how these alternative specifications affect the timing and scale of the economic impacts from anticipated and temporary tourism expenditure. The tourism shock analysed is of a scale expected for the Commonwealth Games to be held in Glasgow in 2014. The model shows how “pre-shock” and “legacy” effects – impacts before and after the shock – arise and their quantitative importance. Using the forward-looking model the paper calculates the optimal degree of pre-announcement.

Modelos de viento aplicados a la mejora en la predicción de incendios forestales

La predicción de incendios forestales es uno de los grandes retos de la comunidad científica debido al impacto medioambiental, humano y económico que tienen en la sociedad. El comportamiento de este fenómeno es difícil de modelar debido a la gran cantidad de variables que intervienen y la dificultad que implica su correcta medición. Los simuladores de fuego son herramientas muy útiles pero, actualmente, los resultados que obtenemos tienen un alto grado de imprecisión. Desde nuestro grupo se ha trabajado en la predicción en dos etapas, donde antes de realizar cualquier predicción, se incorpora una etapa de ajuste de los parámetros de entrada para obtener mejores predicciones. Pese a la mejora que supone este nuevo paradigma de predicción, las simulaciones sobre incendios reales tienen un alto grado de error por el efecto de las condiciones meteorológicas que, usualmente, varían de manera notable durante el transcurso de la simulación. Uno de los factores más determinantes en el comportamiento de un incendio, junto con las características del terreno, es el viento. Los modelos de predicción son extremadamente sensibles al cambio en los componentes de dirección y velocidad del viento por lo que cualquier mejora que podamos introducir para mejorar la calidad de estas componentes influye directamente en la calidad de la predicción. Nuestro sistema de predicción utiliza la dirección y velocidad del viento de forma global en todo el terreno, y lo que proponemos con este trabajo es introducir un modelo de vientos que nos permita generar vientos locales en todas las celdas en las que se divide el terreno. Este viento local dependerá del viento general y de las características del terreno de dichas celdas. Consideramos que la utilización de un viento general no es suficiente para realizar una buena predicción del comportamiento de un incendio y hemos comprobado que la inclusión de un simulador de campo de vientos en nuestro sistema puede llegar a mejorar nuestras predicciones considerablemente. Los resultados obtenidos en los experimentos sintéticos que hemos realizado nos hacen ser optimistas, puesto que consideramos que la inclusión de componentes de viento locales permitirá mejorar nuestras predicciones en incendios reales.

Towards the enhancement of foodborne disease surveillance: A consultation paper

Foodborne disease is a source of increasing morbidity and fatality in the island of Ireland. It also has an economic impact. As a result of the continuing concern about food safety and its implications on an all-island basis, the North/South Ministerial Council established the Food Safety Promotion Board (FSPB) on December 2nd 1999. At its Board meeting in February 2000, the FSPB considered the issue of microbiological surveillance and, in noting the complexity of the issues, recommended that the key players in foodborne disease surveillance in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland consider ways for the improvement of microbiological surveillance on an all-island basis. To assist in the development of a surveillance strategy for the FSPB, a Functional Meeting Group on Disease Surveillance was convened. The group compiled this consultation paper. A series of recommendations are made in the consultation paper and the key recommendations are summarised below.

Understanding the Economics of Investments in the Social Determinants of Health

Briefing 9 - Understanding the economics of investments in the social determinants of health This document, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, examines how to use measures of economic investment to improve and increase local investment in the social determinants of health. The paper provides information to support decision-making on actions to address the social determinants of health and the development of business cases for investment. It supplements the evidence reviews in this series, which include information on the economic impacts of actions on health inequalities, and should help the reader to be an intelligent customer and commissioner of economic analyses and to understand their limitations. The paper covers: - The rationale for understanding, measuring and taking into account the economic impact of decisions and interventions that impact on the social determinants of health.- The benefits and limitations of various ‘economic measures of impact’ – commonly used terms which can be confusing, sometimes leading to misinterpretation of which measure of economic impact is appropriate for what purpose.- What is currently known about the economic impact of intervening in the social determinants of health.- Good practice and further resources which will support better decisions. The briefing is available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

World Alzheimer Report 2010

The World Alzheimer Report 2010 provides the clearest, most comprehensive global picture yet of the economic impact of Alzheimer's disease and dementia.��The report includes an estimate of the worldwide cost of dementia, including direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs and costs of informal (family) care. The estimates are broken down by world region and include analysis of the differences between low and high income countries. The report also contains important policy recommendations and makes clear to key decision-makers that doing nothing is not an option. The full report is available at the following link: World Alzheimer Report 2010��

World Alzheimer Report

The World Alzheimer Report 2010 provides the clearest, most comprehensive global picture yet of the economic impact of Alzheimer's disease and dementia.The report includes an estimate of the worldwide cost of dementia, including direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs and costs of informal (family) care. The estimates are broken down by world region and include analysis of the differences between low and high income countries. The report also contains important policy recommendations and makes clear to key decision-makers that doing nothing is not an option.The report can be found here.

Why did Swiss citizens refuse to ban tobacco advertising?

A ban on tobacco advertising is one of the major tools to promote tobacco control. Swiss citizens recently refused to modify the Swiss Constitution to ban tobacco advertising. This case study shows how a strong alliance among the tobacco industry, the state, the media, and sports and cultural activities planners made it difficult for people to make an informed decision. The promoters of the ban were unable to provide counter-arguments to the mostly fallacious claims made by the opponents regarding the likely health and economic impact of this ban. A comparison to successful campaigns in Canada and New Zealand provides insight regarding factors missing in the Swiss campaign which might have been useful in obtaining support from Swiss citizens.

Further Education and Training Strategy 2014-2019

he first ever strategy for the Further Education and Training (FET) sector is being launched by the Minister for Education and Skills, Ruair�_ Quinn T.D., and Minister of State for Training and Skills Ciarn Cannon T.D. The overall aim of the Strategy is to develop a world-class integrated system of further education and training in Ireland, which will promote economic development and meet the needs of all citizens. The new strategy was developed by SOLAS with assistance from the ESRI which was commissioned to carry out evidence based research and assist in the development of the Strategy. Five high level strategic goals have been identified: -Skills for the Economy: to address the current and future needs of learners, jobseekers, employers and employees and to contribute to national economic development -Active Inclusion: to support the active inclusion of people of all abilities in society with special reference to literacy and numeracy -Quality Provision: to provide high quality education and training programmes and to meet the appropriate national and international quality standards -Integrated Planning and Funding: FET provision will be planned and funded on the basis of objective analysis of needs and evidence of social and economic impact -Standing of FET: to ensure a valued learning path leading to agreed employment, career, developmental, personal and social options. The Strategy follows a radical overhaul of the structure of the sector by the Government which includes the streamlining of 33 existing VECs into 16 Education and Training Boards (ETBs), the abolition of F́S and creation of SOLAS, the Further Education and Training Authority. Speaking at the launch in the Chester Beatty li

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

Allergie aux beta-lactamines [Allergy to beta-lactam antibiotics].

Beta-lactam antibiotics allergies are common. Up to 10% of the population describe a former allergy to penicillins. However only 10 to 15% of these individuals are actually allergic. In most cases, beta-lactam antibiotics will be avoided and replaced by other antibiotics such as quinolones. This fear of a serious allergic reaction has an economic impact and may lead to the emergence of antibiotic resistance. A thorough allergic work-up can accurately determine true allergic patients. Most of the patients with a proven allergy will be able to tolerate other antibiotics belonging to the beta-lactam family. This article focuses on the management of beta-lactam allergic patients.

Evolutionary histories of expanded peptidase families in Schistosoma mansoni

Schistosoma mansoni is one of the three main causative agents of human schistosomiasis, a major health problem with a vast socio-economic impact. Recent advances in the proteomic analysis of schistosomes have revealed that peptidases are the main virulence factors involved in the pathogenesis of this disease. In this context, evolutionary studies can be applied to identify peptidase families that have been expanded in genomes over time in response to different selection pressures. Using a phylogenomic approach, we searched for expanded endopeptidase families in the S. mansoni predicted proteome with the aim of contributing to the knowledge of such enzymes as potential therapeutic targets. We found three endopeptidase families that comprise leishmanolysins (metallopeptidase M8 family), cercarial elastases (serine peptidase S1 family) and cathepsin D proteins (aspartic peptidase A1 family). Our results suggest that the Schistosoma members of these families originated from successive gene duplication events in the parasite lineage after its diversification from other metazoans. Overall, critical residues are conserved among the duplicated genes/proteins. Furthermore, each protein family displays a distinct evolutionary history. Altogether, this work provides an evolutionary view of three S. mansoni peptidase families, which allows for a deeper understanding of the genomic complexity and lineage-specific adaptations potentially related to the parasitic lifestyle.

Agriculture, technological change and environmental sustainability: Looking for a win-win water policy strategy

This paper analyses the effects that technological changes in agriculture would have on environmental, social and economic indicators. Specifically, our study is focused on two alternative technological improvements: the modernization of water transportation systems versus the increase in the total factor productivity of agriculture. Using a computable general equilibrium model for the Catalan economy, our results suggest that a water policy that leads to greater economic efficiency is not necessarily optimal if we consider social or environmental criteria. Moreover, improving environmental sustainability depends less on the type of technological change than on the institutional framework in which technological change occurs. Keywords: agricultural technological changes, computable general equilibrium model, economic impact, water policy

Genetics of narcolepsy and other major sleep disorders.

One third of the population is affected by a sleep disorder with a major social, medical, and economic impact. Although very little is known about the genetics of normal sleep, familial and twin studies indicate an important influence of genetic factors. Most sleep disorders run in families and in several of them the contribution of genetic factors is increasingly recognised. With recent advances in the genetics of narcolepsy and the role of the hypocretin/orexin system, the possibility that other gene defects may contribute to the pathophysiology of major sleep disorders is worth indepth investigation.