Introduction and the problems of weather interpretation

Numerical forecasts of the atmosphere based on the fundamental dynamical and thermodynamical equations have now been carried for almost 30 years. The very first models which were used were drastic simplifications of the governing equations and permitting only the prediction of the geostrophic wind in the middle of the troposphere based on the conservation of absolute vorticity. Since then we have seen a remarkable development in models predicting the large-scale synoptic flow. Verification carried out at NMC Washington indicates an improvement of about 40% in 24h forecasts for the 500mb geopotential since the end of the 1950’s. The most advanced models of today use the equations of motion in their more original form (i.e. primitive equations) which are better suited to predicting the atmosphere at low latitudes as well as small scale systems. The model which we have developed at the Centre, for instance, will be able to predict weather systems from a scale of 500-1000 km and a vertical extension of a few hundred millibars up to global weather systems extending through the whole depth of the atmosphere. With a grid resolution of 1.5 and 15 vertical levels and covering the whole globe it is possible to describe rather accurately the thermodynamical processes associated with cyclone development. It is further possible to incorporate sub-grid-scale processes such as radiation, exchange of sensible heat, release of latent heat etc. in order to predict the development of new weather systems and the decay of old ones. Later in this introduction I will exemplify this by showing some results of forecasts by the Centre’s model.

Applying Jackson’s methodological ideal-types: problems of differentiation and classification

In The Conduct of Inquiry in International Relations, Patrick Jackson situates methodologies in International Relations in relation to their underlying philosophical assumptions. One of his aims is to map International Relations debates in a way that ‘capture[s] current controversies’ (p. 40). This ambition is overstated: whilst Jackson’s typology is useful as a clarificatory tool, (re)classifying existing scholarship in International Relations is more problematic. One problem with Jackson’s approach is that he tends to run together the philosophical assumptions which decisively differentiate his methodologies (by stipulating a distinctive warrant for knowledge claims) and the explanatory strategies that are employed to generate such knowledge claims, suggesting that the latter are entailed by the former. In fact, the explanatory strategies which Jackson associates with each methodology reflect conventional practice in International Relations just as much as they reflect philosophical assumptions. This makes it more difficult to identify each methodology at work than Jackson implies. I illustrate this point through a critical analysis of Jackson’s controversial reclassification of Waltz as an analyticist, showing that whilst Jackson’s typology helps to expose inconsistencies in Waltz’s approach, it does not fully support the proposed reclassification. The conventional aspect of methodologies in International Relations also raises questions about the limits of Jackson’s ‘engaged pluralism’.

Emotional geographies of enthusiasm: belonging to the Telecommunications Heritage Group

Enthusiasm has long been associated with notions of impassioned mood, intensity of feeling and passionate dedication. Despite this burgeoning field of ‘enthusiastic geographies’, the conceptualisation of enthusiasm has until now remained largely untouched by geographers. This article develops recent work on emotional geographies in order to shed light on the emergence, experience and spatial implications of enthusiasm in group settings. It draws upon interview material with members of the UK’s Telecommunications Heritage Group in order to examine enthusiasm as an emotional affiliation. It is argued in this article that enthusiasm influences passions, performances and actions in space, revealing the mutual ‘closeness’, exclusivity of knowledgeability and sociability among participants.

Interpretation and expectations among mothers of children with anxiety disorders: associations with maternal anxiety disorder

Background Models of the development and maintenance of childhood anxiety suggest an important role for parent cognitions: that is, negative expectations of children's coping abilities lead to parenting behaviors that maintain child anxiety. The primary aims of the current study were to (1) compare expectations of child vulnerability and coping among mothers of children with anxiety disorders on the basis of whether or not mothers also had a current anxiety disorder, and (2) examine the degree to which the association between maternal anxiety disorder status and child coping expectations was mediated by how mothers interpreted ambiguous material that referred to their own experience. Methods The association between interpretations of threat, negative emotion, and control was assessed using hypothetical ambiguous scenarios in a sample of 271 anxious and nonanxious mothers of 7- to 12-year-old children with an anxiety disorder. Mothers also rated their expectations when presented with real life challenge tasks. Results There was a significant association between maternal anxiety disorder status and negative expectations of child coping behaviors. Mothers’ self-referent interpretations were found to mediate this relationship. Responses to ambiguous hypothetical scenarios correlated significantly with responses to real life challenge tasks. Conclusions Treatments for childhood anxiety disorders in the context of parental anxiety disorders may benefit from the inclusion of a component to directly address parental cognitions. Some inconsistencies were found when comparing maternal expectations in response to hypothetical scenarios with real life challenges. This should be addressed in future research.

Faith and protection: the construction of hope by parents of children with leukemia and their oncologists

Background. Oncologists are criticized for fostering unrealistic hope in patients and families, but criticisms reflect a perspective that is oversimplified and “expert” guidance that is ambiguous or impractical. Our aim was to understand how pediatric oncologists manage parents' hope in practice and to evaluate how they address parents' needs. Methods. Participants were 53 parents and 12 oncologists whom they consulted across six U.K. centers. We audio recorded consultations approximately 1–2, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis. Parents were interviewed after each consultation to elicit their perspectives on the consultation and clinical relationship. Transcripts of consultations and interviews were analyzed qualitatively. Results. Parents needed hope in order to function effectively in the face of despair, and all wanted the oncologists to help them be hopeful. Most parents focused hope on the short term. They therefore needed oncologists to be authoritative in taking responsibility for the child's long-term survival while cushioning parents from information about longer-term uncertainties and being positive in providing information about short-term progress. A few parents who could not fully trust their oncologist were unable to hope. Conclusion. Oncologists' pivotal role in sustaining hope was one that parents gave them. Most parents' “faith” in the oncologist allowed them to set aside, rather than deny, their fears about survival while investing their hopes in short-term milestones. Oncologists' behavior generally matched parents' needs, contradicting common criticisms of oncologists. Nevertheless, oncologists need to identify and address the difficulty that some parents have in fully trusting the oncologist and, consequently, being hopeful.

Disambiguating with Bourdieu: unravelling policy from practice in the teaching of children with English as an additional language

This article explores the use of Bourdieusian analysis for examining how policy and practice interact in the teaching of English and therefore in the development of children���s language and literacy; in particular how Bourdieusian analysis uncovers the ways in which teachers’ practice has been influenced unconsciously by centralised shaping of the curriculum for English in England while the pupil demographic in schools has become more linguistically diverse. Data were collected from interviews with both newly qualified and very experienced primary school (pupil ages 5 – 11) teachers, whose pedagogical norms for the teaching of English were challenged by the arrival of non-English speakers in their classrooms. The discussion highlights how the use of Bourdieusian constructs of field, habitus and capital can disambiguate teachers’ practical classroom decisions from the influences of policy expectations.