Modern Portfolio Theory Applied to Electricity Resource Planning

To meet electricity demand, electric utilities develop growth strategies for generation, transmission, and distributions systems. For a long time those strategies have been developed by applying least-cost methodology, in which the cheapest stand-alone resources are simply added, instead of analyzing complete portfolios. As a consequence, least-cost methodology is biased in favor of fossil fuel-based technologies, completely ignoring the benefits of adding non-fossil fuel technologies to generation portfolios, especially renewable energies. For this reason, this thesis introduces modern portfolio theory (MPT) to gain a more profound insight into a generation portfolio’s performance using generation cost and risk metrics. We discuss all necessary assumptions and modifications to this finance technique for its application within power systems planning, and we present a real case of analysis. Finally, the results of this thesis are summarized, pointing out the main benefits and the scope of this new tool in the context of electricity generation planning.

Defining the Resolution of a Network for Transportation Analyses: a New Method to Improve Transportation Planning Decisions

Travel demand models are important tools used in the analysis of transportation plans, projects, and policies. The modeling results are useful for transportation planners making transportation decisions and for policy makers developing transportation policies. Defining the level of detail (i.e., the number of roads) of the transport network in consistency with the travel demand model’s zone system is crucial to the accuracy of modeling results. However, travel demand modelers have not had tools to determine how much detail is needed in a transport network for a travel demand model. This dissertation seeks to fill this knowledge gap by (1) providing methodology to define an appropriate level of detail for a transport network in a given travel demand model; (2) implementing this methodology in a travel demand model in the Baltimore area; and (3) identifying how this methodology improves the modeling accuracy. All analyses identify the spatial resolution of the transport network has great impacts on the modeling results. For example, when compared to the observed traffic data, a very detailed network underestimates traffic congestion in the Baltimore area, while a network developed by this dissertation provides a more accurate modeling result of the traffic conditions. Through the evaluation of the impacts a new transportation project has on both networks, the differences in their analysis results point out the importance of having an appropriate level of network detail for making improved planning decisions. The results corroborate a suggested guideline concerning the development of a transport network in consistency with the travel demand model’s zone system. To conclude this dissertation, limitations are identified in data sources and methodology, based on which a plan of future studies is laid out.

Scheduling of track inspection and maintenance activities in railroad networks

The U.S. railroad companies spend billions of dollars every year on railroad track maintenance in order to ensure safety and operational efficiency of their railroad networks. Besides maintenance costs, other costs such as train accident costs, train and shipment delay costs and rolling stock maintenance costs are also closely related to track maintenance activities. Optimizing the track maintenance process on the extensive railroad networks is a very complex problem with major cost implications. Currently, the decision making process for track maintenance planning is largely manual and primarily relies on the knowledge and judgment of experts. There is considerable potential to improve the process by using operations research techniques to develop solutions to the optimization problems on track maintenance. In this dissertation study, we propose a range of mathematical models and solution algorithms for three network-level scheduling problems on track maintenance: track inspection scheduling problem (TISP), production team scheduling problem (PTSP) and job-to-project clustering problem (JTPCP). TISP involves a set of inspection teams which travel over the railroad network to identify track defects. It is a large-scale routing and scheduling problem where thousands of tasks are to be scheduled subject to many difficult side constraints such as periodicity constraints and discrete working time constraints. A vehicle routing problem formulation was proposed for TISP, and a customized heuristic algorithm was developed to solve the model. The algorithm iteratively applies a constructive heuristic and a local search algorithm in an incremental scheduling horizon framework. The proposed model and algorithm have been adopted by a Class I railroad in its decision making process. Real-world case studies show the proposed approach outperforms the manual approach in short-term scheduling and can be used to conduct long-term what-if analyses to yield managerial insights. PTSP schedules capital track maintenance projects, which are the largest track maintenance activities and account for the majority of railroad capital spending. A time-space network model was proposed to formulate PTSP. More than ten types of side constraints were considered in the model, including very complex constraints such as mutual exclusion constraints and consecution constraints. A multiple neighborhood search algorithm, including a decomposition and restriction search and a block-interchange search, was developed to solve the model. Various performance enhancement techniques, such as data reduction, augmented cost function and subproblem prioritization, were developed to improve the algorithm. The proposed approach has been adopted by a Class I railroad for two years. Our numerical results show the model solutions are able to satisfy all hard constraints and most soft constraints. Compared with the existing manual procedure, the proposed approach is able to bring significant cost savings and operational efficiency improvement. JTPCP is an intermediate problem between TISP and PTSP. It focuses on clustering thousands of capital track maintenance jobs (based on the defects identified in track inspection) into projects so that the projects can be scheduled in PTSP. A vehicle routing problem based model and a multiple-step heuristic algorithm were developed to solve this problem. Various side constraints such as mutual exclusion constraints and rounding constraints were considered. The proposed approach has been applied in practice and has shown good performance in both solution quality and efficiency.

Photovoltaic power forecast modeling with artificial neural networks

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Eletrónica e Telecomunicações, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

QoE-aware power management in vehicle-to-grid networks:a matching-theoretic approach

Frequency, time and places of charging and discharging have critical impact on the Quality of Experience (QoE) of using Electric Vehicles (EVs). EV charging and discharging scheduling schemes should consider both the QoE of using EV and the load capacity of the power grid. In this paper, we design a traveling plan-aware scheduling scheme for EV charging in driving pattern and a cooperative EV charging and discharging scheme in parking pattern to improve the QoE of using EV and enhance the reliability of the power grid. For traveling planaware scheduling, the assignment of EVs to Charging Stations (CSs) is modeled as a many-to-one matching game and the Stable Matching Algorithm (SMA) is proposed. For cooperative EV charging and discharging in parking pattern, the electricity exchange between charging EVs and discharging EVs in the same parking lot is formulated as a many-to-many matching model with ties, and we develop the Pareto Optimal Matching Algorithm (POMA). Simulation results indicates that the SMA can significantly improve the average system utility for EV charging in driving pattern, and the POMA can increase the amount of electricity offloaded from the grid which is helpful to enhance the reliability of the power grid.

Matching theory based travel plan aware charging algorithms in V2G smart grid networks

The frequency, time and places of charging have large impact on the Quality of Experience (QoE) of EV drivers. It is critical to design effective EV charging scheduling system to improve the QoE of EV drivers. In order to improve EV charging QoE and utilization of CSs, we develop an innovative travel plan aware charging scheduling scheme for moving EVs to be charged at Charging Stations (CS). In the design of the proposed charging scheduling scheme for moving EVs, the travel routes of EVs and the utility of CSs are taken into consideration. The assignment of EVs to CSs is modeled as a two-sided many-to-one matching game with the objective of maximizing the system utility which reflects the satisfactory degrees of EVs and the profits of CSs. A Stable Matching Algorithm (SMA) is proposed to seek stable matching between charging EVs and CSs. Furthermore, an improved Learning based On-LiNe scheduling Algorithm (LONA) is proposed to be executed by each CS in a distributed manner. The performance gain of the average system utility by the SMA is up to 38.2% comparing to the Random Charging Scheduling (RCS) algorithm, and 4.67% comparing to Only utility of Electric Vehicle Concerned (OEVC) scheme. The effectiveness of the proposed SMA and LONA is also demonstrated by simulations in terms of the satisfactory ratio of charging EVs and the the convergence speed of iteration.

Avoided losses on LV networks as a result of microgeneration

In the scope of the discussions about microgeneration (and microgrids), the avoided electrical losses are often pointed out as an important value to be credited to those entities. Therefore, methods to assess the impact of microgeneration on losses must be developed in order to support the definition of a suitable regulatory framework for the economic integration of microgeneration on distribution networks. This paper presents an analytical method to quantify the value of avoided losses that microgeneration may produce on LV networks. Intervals of expected avoided losses are used to account for the variation of avoided losses due to the number, size and location of microgenerators, as well as for the kind of load distribution on LV networks.

Assessing the contribution of microgrids to the reliability of distribution networks

The emergence of microgeneration has recently lead to the concept of microgrid, a network of LV consumers and producers able to export electric energy in some circumstances and also to work in an isolated way in emergency situations. Research on the organization of microgrids, control devices, functionalities and other technical aspects is presently being carried out, in order to establish a consistent technical framework to support the concept. The successful development of the microgrid concept implies the definition of a suitable regulation for its integration on distribution systems. In order to define such a regulation, the identification of costs and benefits that microgrids may bring is a crucial task. Actually, this is the basis for a discussion about the way global costs could be divided among the different agents that benefit from the development of microgrids. Among other aspects, the effect of microgrids on the reliability of the distribution network has been pointed out as an important advantage, due to the ability of isolated operation in emergency situations. This paper identifies the situations where the existence of a microgrid may reduce the interruption rate and duration and thus improve the reliability indices of the distribution network. The relevant expressions necessary to quantify the reliability are presented. An illustrative example is included, where the global influence of the microgrid in the reliability is commented.