The impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation phases on off-season maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil

In recent years, maize has become one of the main alternative crops for the autumn winter growing season in the central-western and southeastern regions of Brazil. However, water deficits, sub-optimal temperatures and low solar radiation levels are common problems that are experienced during this growing season by local farmers. One methodology to assess the impact of variable weather conditions on crop production is the use of crop simulation models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate variability on maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil. Specific objectives for this study were (1) to analyse the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation and air temperature for four locations in the state of Sao Paulo and (2) to analyse the impact of ENSO on maize grown off-season for the same four locations using a crop simulation model. For each site, historical weather data were categorised as belonging to one of three phases of ENSO: El Nino (warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific), La Nina (cool sea surface temperature anomalies) or neutral, based on an index derived from observed sea surface temperature anomalies. During El Nino, there is a tendency for an increase in the rainfall amount during May for the four selected locations, and also during April, mainly in three of the locations, resulting in an increase in simulated maize yield planted between February 15 and March 15. In general, there was a decrease in the simulated yield for maize grown off-season during neutral years. This study showed how a crop model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on the yield of maize grown off-season in a subtropical region of Brazil. The outcomes of this study can be very useful for both policy makers and local farmers for agricultural planning and decision making. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Cytogenetic biomonitoring of inhabitants of a large uranium mineralization area: the municipalities of Monte Alegre, Prainha, and Alenquer, in the State of Para, Brazil

Uranium is a natural radioactive metallic element; its effect on the organism is cumulative, and chronic exposure to this element can induce carcinogenesis. Three cities of the Amazon region-Monte Alegre, Prainha, and Alenquer-in North Brazil, are located in one of the largest uranium mineralization areas of the world. Radon is a radioactive gas, part of uranium decay series and readily diffuses through rock. In Monte Alegre, most of the houses are built of rocks removed from the Earth`s crust in the forest, where the uranium reserves lie. The objective of the present work is to determine the presence or absence of genotoxicity and risk of carcinogenesis induced by natural exposure to uranium and radon in the populations of these three cities. The frequency of micronuclei (MN) and chromosomal aberrations (CA) showed no statistically significant differences between the control population and the three study populations (P > 0.05). MN was also analyzed using the fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) technique, with a centromere-specific probe. No clastogenic and/or aneugenic effects were found in the populations. Using FISH analysis, other carcinogenesis biomarkers were analyzed, but neither the presence of the IGH/BCL2 translocation nor an amplification of the MYC gene and 22q21 region was detected. Clastogenicity and DNA damage were also not found in the populations analyzed using the alkaline comet assay. The mitotic index showed no cytotoxicity in the analyzed individuals` lymphocytes. Once we do not have data concerning radiation doses from other sources, such as cosmic rays, potassium, thorium, or anthropogenic sources, it is hard to determine if uranium emissions in this geographic region where our study population lives are too low to cause significant DNA damage. Regardless, genetic analyses suggest that the radiation in our study area is not high enough to induce DNA alterations or to interfere with mitotic apparatus formation. It is also possible that damages caused by radiation doses undergo cellular repair.

Dimensionless spray flux in wet granulation: Monte-Carlo simulations and experimental validation

Dimensionless spray flux Ψa is a dimensionless group that characterises the three most important variables in liquid dispersion: flowrate, drop size and powder flux through the spray zone. In this paper, the Poisson distribution was used to generate analytical solutions for the proportion of nuclei formed from single drops (fsingle) and the fraction of the powder surface covered by drops (fcovered) as a function of Ψa. Monte-Carlo simulations were performed to simulate the spray zone and investigate how Ψa, fsingle and fcovered are related. The Monte-Carlo data was an excellent match with analytical solutions of fcovered and fsingle as a function of Ψa. At low Ψa, the proportion of the surface covered by drops (fcovered) was equal to Ψa. As Ψa increases, drop overlap becomes more dominant and the powder surface coverage levels off. The proportion of nuclei formed from single drops (fsingle) falls exponentially with increasing Ψa. In the ranges covered, these results were independent of drop size, number of drops, drop size distribution (mono-sized, bimodal and trimodal distributions), and the uniformity of the spray. Experimental data of nuclei size distributions as a function of spray flux were fitted to the analytical solution for fsingle by defining a cutsize for single drop nuclei. The fitted cutsizes followed the spray drop sizes suggesting that the method is robust and that the cutsize does indicate the transition size between single drop and agglomerate nuclei. This demonstrates that the nuclei distribution is determined by the dimensionless spray flux and the fraction of drop controlled nuclei can be calculated analytically in advance.

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Millennial and orbital variations of El Nino/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial interglacial cycle(1). ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time(2,3), but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Nino events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Nino events ( summer precipitation declines in El Nino years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard - Oeschger events - millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record - although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (, 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.

Shell utilization by the land hermit crab Coenobita scaevola (Anomura, Coenobitidae) from Wadi El-Gemal, Red Sea

We conducted a study in order to determine the shell utilization pattern of the land hermit crab Coenobita scaevola (Forskal, 1775), the only species representing the family Coenobitidae in the Red Sea. Hermit crabs were collected during July 2003 and January 2004 along the sandy shores of protected area of Wadi-Elgemal, south Red Sea. Animals were fixed in 10% formalin and transported to the laboratory where they were weighed and measured for cephalothoracic shield length (CSL) and width, left propodus length and height. Gastropod shells species were identified, weighed and measured for shell aperture width and length and shell internal volume. A total of 391 individuals were collected (219 females, 172 males) and were found occupying ten shell species, with clear significant occupation of Nerita undata. A positive relationship was obtained between the size of the shells occupied and the hermit crabs. Analysis of shell internal volume and crab dimensions demonstrated that this shell dimension constitutes mainly the determinant for C. scaevola shell utilization. With respect to the size of the animals and the occupied shell type, Nerita undata was occupied by a wide range of CSL (2.5-8.5mm). Small sized crabs (2.5-3.5mm CSL) occupied Planaxis sulcatus and Nassarius arcularius plicatus while larger specimens (8.5-9.5mm CSL) occupied Turbo radiatits, Polinices milanostomus and Monodonta canilifera. Variations in the shell occupation were also recognized among male and females. Comparisons among populational and shell use features led us to suggest the use of this land hermit crab as key-species in the preserving program of shores and protected areas, since this species is the first organism to disappear from any shore when a new tourist establishment is implemented.

Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation

The small sample performance of Granger causality tests under different model dimensions, degree of cointegration, direction of causality, and system stability are presented. Two tests based on maximum likelihood estimation of error-correction models (LR and WALD) are compared to a Wald test based on multivariate least squares estimation of a modified VAR (MWALD). In large samples all test statistics perform well in terms of size and power. For smaller samples, the LR and WALD tests perform better than the MWALD test. Overall, the LR test outperforms the other two in terms of size and power in small samples.

Rickettsial infection in domestic mammals and their ectoparasites in El Valle de Anton, Cocle, Panama

The present research evaluated the presence of Rickettsia spp. on ectoparasites of horses and dogs (using PCR techniques), and their sera (using immunofluorescence assay) in El Valle de Anton town in Panama. A total of 20 horses and 20 dogs were sampled, finding four species of ectoparasites on dogs (the ticks Rhipicephalus sanguineus, Amblyomma ovale, Amblyomma oblongoguttatum, and the flea Ctenocephalides felis), and two tick species on horses (Amblyomma cajennense and Dermacentor nitens). DNA of Rickettsia amblyommii was found in pools of A. cajennense, D. nitens, and R. sanguineus, while Rickettsia fells was detected in C. felis pools. Overall, 70% (14/20) and 65% (13/20) of the horses and dogs, respectively, were seroreactive (titer >= 64) to spotted fever group rickettsiae. Sera from six dogs and five horses reacted to R. amblyommii antigens with titers at least four-fold higher than those for the other antigens tested (Rickettsia bellii, Rickettsia parked, Rickettsia rhipicephali, R. felis, and R. rickettsii). These serological results, coupled with our molecular findings, suggest that these dogs and horses were infected by Rickettsia amblyommii. More studies need to be realized afford to identify the Rickettsia species responsible for other serological and molecular positive results, and their ecological importance. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An atomistic simulation of solid state sintering using Monte Carlo methods

This paper presents results on the simulation of the solid state sintering of copper wires using Monte Carlo techniques based on elements of lattice theory and cellular automata. The initial structure is superimposed onto a triangular, two-dimensional lattice, where each lattice site corresponds to either an atom or vacancy. The number of vacancies varies with the simulation temperature, while a cluster of vacancies is a pore. To simulate sintering, lattice sites are picked at random and reoriented in terms of an atomistic model governing mass transport. The probability that an atom has sufficient energy to jump to a vacant lattice site is related to the jump frequency, and hence the diffusion coefficient, while the probability that an atomic jump will be accepted is related to the change in energy of the system as a result of the jump, as determined by the change in the number of nearest neighbours. The jump frequency is also used to relate model time, measured in Monte Carlo Steps, to the actual sintering time. The model incorporates bulk, grain boundary and surface diffusion terms and includes vacancy annihilation on the grain boundaries. The predictions of the model were found to be consistent with experimental data, both in terms of the microstructural evolution and in terms of the sintering time. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.