Reliability models for existing structures based on dynamic state estimation and data based asymptotic extreme value analysis

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Helicopter blade flapping with and without small angle assumption in the presence of dynamic stall

The flapping equation for a rotating rigid helicopter blade is typically derived by considering (1)small flap angle, (2) small induced angle of attack and (3) linear aerodynamics. However, the use of nonlinear aerodynamics such as dynamic stall can make the assumptions of small angles suspect as shown in this paper. A general equation describing helicopter blade flap dynamics for large flap angle and large induced inflow angle of attack is derived. A semi-empirical dynamic stall aerodynamics model (ONERA model) is used. Numerical simulations are performed by solving the nonlinear flapping ordinary differential equation for steady state conditions and the validity of the small angle approximations are examined. It is shown that the small flapping assumption, and to a lesser extent, the small induced angle ofattack assumption, can lead to inaccurate predictions of the blade flap response in certain flight conditions for some rotors when nonlinear aerodynamics is considered. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic changes in mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) activities in the corpus luteum of the bonnet monkey (Macaca radiata) during development, induced luteolysis, and simulated early pregnancy: A role for p38 MAPK in the regulation of luteal function

Changes in MAPK activities were examined in the corpus luteum (CL) during luteolysis and pregnancy, employing GnRH antagonist (Cetrorelix)-induced luteolysis, stages of CL, and hCG treatment to mimic early pregnancy as model systems in the bonnet monkey. We hypothesized that MAPKs could serve to phosphorylate critical phosphoproteins to regulate luteal function. Analysis of several indices for structural (caspase-3 activity and DNA fragmentation) and functional (progesterone and steroidogenic acute regulatory protein expression) changes in the CL revealed that the decreased luteal function observed during Cetrorelix treatment and late luteal phase was associated with increased caspase-3 activity and DNA fragmentation. As expected, human chorionic gonadotropin treatment dramatically increased luteal function, but the indices for structural changes were only partially attenuated. All three MAPKs appeared to be constitutively active in the mid-luteal-phase CL, and activities of ERK-1/2 and p38-MAPK (p38), but not Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK)-1/2, decreased significantly (P < 0.05) within 12 - 24 h after Cetrorelix treatment. During the late luteal phase, in contrast to decreased ERK-1/2 and p38 activities, JNK-1/2 activities increased significantly (P < 0.05). Although human chorionic gonadotropin treatment increased ERK-1/2 and p38 activities, it decreased JNK-1/2 activities. The activation status of p38 was correlated with the phosphorylation status of an upstream activator, MAPK kinase-3/6 and the expression of MAPK activated protein kinase-3, a downstream target. Intraluteal administration of p38 kinase inhibitor (SB203580), but not MAPK kinase-1/2 inhibitor (PD98059), decreased the luteal function. Together, these data suggest an important role for p38 in the regulation of CL function in primates.

Learning dynamic prices in multiseller electronic retail markets with price sensitive customers, stochastic demands, and inventory replenishments

In this paper, we use reinforcement learning (RL) as a tool to study price dynamics in an electronic retail market consisting of two competing sellers, and price sensitive and lead time sensitive customers. Sellers, offering identical products, compete on price to satisfy stochastically arriving demands (customers), and follow standard inventory control and replenishment policies to manage their inventories. In such a generalized setting, RL techniques have not previously been applied. We consider two representative cases: 1) no information case, were none of the sellers has any information about customer queue levels, inventory levels, or prices at the competitors; and 2) partial information case, where every seller has information about the customer queue levels and inventory levels of the competitors. Sellers employ automated pricing agents, or pricebots, which use RL-based pricing algorithms to reset the prices at random intervals based on factors such as number of back orders, inventory levels, and replenishment lead times, with the objective of maximizing discounted cumulative profit. In the no information case, we show that a seller who uses Q-learning outperforms a seller who uses derivative following (DF). In the partial information case, we model the problem as a Markovian game and use actor-critic based RL to learn dynamic prices. We believe our approach to solving these problems is a new and promising way of setting dynamic prices in multiseller environments with stochastic demands, price sensitive customers, and inventory replenishments.

Foaming of slags under dynamic conditions

Slag foaming under dynamic conditions has been studied in laboratory scale to examine the influence of properties commonly used to describe the foaminess and foam stability of slags under steady-state conditions. Synthetically produced slags with compositions relevant to tool steel and stainless steel production were studied through X-ray equipment in measurements simulating the dynamic conditions found in real processes. It is found that the dynamic systems display a more complex behavior than systems Under steady state. Traditional theories for foaming do not seem to be valid for slag foaming under dynamic conditions. The foam displays a fluctuating behavior, which the presently available models are not able to take into account. The concept of a foaming index does not seem to be applicable, resulting in the need for alternative models.

The fluctuations in slag foam under dynamic conditions

In the present article, slag foaming phenomenon under dynamic conditions is critically analyzed on the basis of the results of high-temperature X-ray image analysis experiments. The results indicate that the mismatch between the gas generation rate and gas escape rate has a serious impact on the foam height. This mismatch is attributed to the chemical reaction rate, which has to be considered in modeling slag foaming under dynamic conditions. The results further imply that a critical ratio of bubble size/crucible size exists, where wall effects are likely to become prominent.

Communication: Evidence of dynamic heterogeneity in glassy polymer monolayers from interface microrheology measurements

We have developed a novel nanoparticle tracking based interface microrheology technique to perform in situ studies on confined complex fluids. To demonstrate the power of this technique, we show, for the first time, how in situ glass formation in polymers confined at air-water interface can be directly probed by monitoring variation of the mean square displacement of embedded nanoparticles as a function of surface density. We have further quantified the appearance of dynamic heterogeneity and hence vitrification in polymethyl methacrylate monolayers above a certain surface density, through the variation of non-Gaussian parameter of the probes. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3471584].

Stability Analysis of Composite Skew Plates Using a Dynamic Method

Stability analysis is carried out considering free lateral vibrations of simply supported composite skew plates that are subjected to both direct and shear in-plane forces. An oblique stress component representation is used, consistent with the skew-geometry of the plate. A double series, expressed in Chebyshev polynomials, is used here as the assumed deflection surface and Ritz method of solution is employed. Numerical results for different combinations of side ratios, skew angle, and in-plane loadings that act individually or in combination are obtained. In this method, the in-plane load parameter is varied until the fundamental frequency goes to zero. The value of the in-plane load then corresponds to a critical buckling load. Plots of frequency parameter versus in-plane loading are given for a few typical cases. Details of crossings and quasi degeneracies of these curves are presented.

Static and dynamic properties of incommensurate smectic-AIC liquid crystals

We study the elasticity, topological defects, and hydrodynamics of the recently discovered incommensurate smectic (AIC) phase, characterized by two collinear mass density waves of incommensurate spatial frequency. The low-energy long-wavelength excitations of the system can be described by a displacement field u(x) and a ��phason�� field w(x) associated, respectively, with collective and relative motion of the two constituent density waves. We formulate the elastic free energy in terms of these two variables and find that when w=0, its functional dependence on u is identical to that of a conventional smectic liquid crystal, while when u=0, its functional dependence on w is the same as that for the angle variable in a slightly anisotropic XY model. An arbitrariness in the definition of u and w allows a choice that eliminates all relevant couplings between them in the long-wavelength elastic energy. The topological defects of the system are dislocations with nonzero u and w components. We introduce a two-dimensional Burgers lattice for these dislocations, and compute the interaction between them. This has two parts: one arising from the u field that is short ranged and identical to the interaction between dislocations in an ordinary smectic liquid crystal, and one arising from the w field that is long ranged and identical to the logarithmic interaction between vortices in an XY model. The hydrodynamic modes of the AIC include first- and second-sound modes whose direction-dependent velocities are identical to those in ordinary smectics. The sound attenuations have a different direction dependence, however. The breakdown of hydrodynamics found in conventional smectic liquid crystals, with three of the five viscosities diverging as 1/? at small frequencies ?, occurs in these systems as well and is identical in all its details. In addition, there is a diffusive phason mode, not found in ordinary smectic liquid crystals, that leads to anomalously slow mechanical response analogous to that predicted in quasicrystals, but on a far more experimentally accessible time scale.

Steady compressible flow of granular materials through a wedge-shaped hopper: The smooth wall, radial gravity problem

A continuum model based on the critical state theory of soil mechanics is used to generate stress and density profiles, and to compute discharge velocities for the plane flow of cohesionless materials. Two types of yield loci are employed, namely, a yield locus with a corner, and a smooth yield locus. The yield locus with a corner leads to computational difficulties. For the smooth yield locus, results are found to be relatively insensitive to the shape of the yield locus, the location of the upper traction-free surface and the density specified on this surface. This insensitivity arises from the existence of asymptotic stress and density fields, to which the solution tends to converge on moving down the hopper. Numerical and approximate analytical solutions are obtained for these fields and the latter is used to derive an expression for the discharge velocity. This relation predicts discharge velocities to within 13% of the exact (numerical) values. While the assumption of incompressibility has been frequently used in the literature, it is shown here that in some cases, this leads to discharge velocities which are significantly higher than those obtained by the incorporation of density variation.

Study Of The Hvdc-Torsional Interactions Through Digital Dynamic Simulation

This paper presents the detailed dynamic digital simulation for the study of phenomenon of torsional interaction between HVDC-Turbine generator shaft, dynamics using the novel converter model presented in [ 1 ] The system model includes detailed representation of the synchronous generator and the shaft dynamics, the ac and dc network transients. The results of a case study indicate the various factors that influence the torsional interaction.

Dynamic security assessment of power systems using structure-preserving energy functions

An application of direct methods to dynamic security assessment of power systems using structure-preserving energy functions (SPEF) is presented. The transient energy margin (TEM) is used as an index for checking the stability of the system as well as ranking the contigencies based on their severity. The computation of the TEM requires the evaluation of the critical energy and the energy at fault clearing. Usually this is done by simulating the faulted trajectory, which is time-consuming. In this paper, a new algorithm which eliminates the faulted trajectory estimation is presented to calculate the TEM. The system equations and the SPEF are developed using the centre-of-inertia (COI) formulation and the loads are modelled as arbitrary functions of the respective bus voltages. The critical energy is evaluated using the potential energy boundary surface (PEBS) method. The method is illustrated by considering two realistic power system examples.