Three essays on labor liberalization and its effects on world economy

This dissertation consists of three theoretical essays on immigration, international trade and political economy. The first two essays analyze the political economy of immigration in developed countries. The third essay explores new ground on the effects of labor liberalization in developing countries. Trade economists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical and game theoretical models during the last seventy years. This dissertation benefits from these advances to analyze economic issues related to immigration. The first essay applies a long run general equilibrium trade model similar to Krugman (1980), and blends it with the median voter ala-Mayer (1984) framework. The second essay uses a short run general equilibrium specific factor trade model similar to Jones (1975) and incorporates it with the median voter model similar to Benhabib (1997). The third essay employs a five stage game theoretical approach similar to Vogel (2007) and solves it by the method of backward induction. The first essay shows that labor liberalization is more likely to come about in societies that have more taste for varieties, and that workers and capital owners could share the same positive stance toward labor liberalization. In a dynamic model, it demonstrates that the median voter is willing to accept fewer immigrants in the first period in order to preserve her domestic political influence in the second period threatened by the naturalization of these immigrants. The second essay shows that the liberalization of labor depends on the host country's stock and distribution of capital, and the number of groups of skilled workers within each country. I demonstrate that the more types of goods both countries produce, the more liberal the host country is toward immigration. The third essay proposes a theory of free movement of goods and labor between two economies with imperfect labor contracts. The heart of my analysis lies in the determinants of talent development where individuals' decisions to emigrate are related to the fixed costs of emigration. Finally, free trade and labor affect income via an indirect effect on individuals' incentives to invest in the skill levels and a direct effect on the prices of goods.

Essays on Competition in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Chapter 1: Patents and Entry Competition in the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Role of Marketing Exclusivity Effective patent length for innovation drugs is severely curtailed because of extensive efficacy and safety tests required for FDA approval, raising concern over adequacy of incentives for new drug development. The Hatch-Waxman Act extends patent length for new drugs by five years, but also promotes generic entry by simplifying approval procedures and granting 180-day marketing exclusivity to a first generic entrant before the patent expires. In this paper we present a dynamic model to examine the effect of marketing exclusivity. We find that marketing exclusivity may be redundant and its removal may increase generic firms' profits and social welfare. Chapter 2: Why Authorized Generics?: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations Facing generic competition, the brand-name companies some-times launch generic versions themselves called authorized generics. This practice is puzzling. If it is cannibalization, it cannot be profitable. If it is divisionalization, it should be practiced always instead of sometimes. I explain this phenomenon in terms of switching costs in a model in which the incumbent first develops a customer base to ready itself against generic competition later. I show that only sufficiently low switching costs or large market size justifies launch of AGs. I then use prescription drug data to test those results and find support. Chapter 3: The Merger Paradox and R&D Oligopoly theory says that merger is unprofitable, unless a majority of firms in industry merge. Here, we introduce R&D opportunities to resolve this so-called merger paradox. We have three results. First, when there is one R&D firm, that firm can profitably merge with any number of non-R&D firms. Second, with multiple R&D firms and multiple non-R&D firms, all R&D firms can profitably merge. Third, with two R&D firms and two non-R&D firms, each R&D firms prefer to merge with a non-R&D firm. With three or more than non-R&D firms, however, the R&D firms prefer to merge with each other.

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Um estudo sobre a variabilidade do vento no nordeste do Brasil através de métodos estatísticos e via modelos dinâmicos de meso e micro escala

The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal and interannual variability and calculate the trends of wind speed in NEB and then validate the mesoscale numerical model for after engage with the microscale numerical model in order to get the wind resource at some locations in the NEB. For this we use two data sets of wind speed (weather stations and anemometric towers) and two dynamic models; one of mesoscale and another of microscale. We use statistical tools to evaluate and validate the data obtained. The simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model were made using data assimilation methods (Newtonian Relaxation and Kalman filter). The main results show: (i) Five homogeneous groups of wind speed in the NEB with higher values in winter and spring and with lower in summer and fall; (ii) The interannual variability of the wind speed in some groups stood out with higher values; (iii) The large-scale circulation modified by the El Niño and La Niña intensified wind speed for the groups with higher values; (iv) The trend analysis showed more significant negative values for G3, G4 and G5 in all seasons and in the annual average; (v) The performance of dynamic mesoscale model showed smaller errors in the locations Paracuru and São João and major errors were observed in Triunfo; (vi) Application of the Kalman filter significantly reduce the systematic errors shown in the simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model; (vii) The wind resource indicate that Paracuru and Triunfo are favorable areas for the generation of energy, and the coupling technique after validation showed better results for Paracuru. We conclude that the objective was achieved, making it possible to identify trends in homogeneous groups of wind behavior, and to evaluate the quality of both simulations with the dynamic model of mesoscale and microscale to answer questions as necessary before planning research projects in Wind-Energy area in the NEB

Design, development and control of a new generation high performance linear actuator for parallel robots and other applications

The main focus of this research is to design and develop a high performance linear actuator based on a four bar mechanism. The present work includes the detailed analysis (kinematics and dynamics), design, implementation and experimental validation of the newly designed actuator. High performance is characterized by the acceleration of the actuator end effector. The principle of the newly designed actuator is to network the four bar rhombus configuration (where some bars are extended to form an X shape) to attain high acceleration. Firstly, a detailed kinematic analysis of the actuator is presented and kinematic performance is evaluated through MATLAB simulations. A dynamic equation of the actuator is achieved by using the Lagrangian dynamic formulation. A SIMULINK control model of the actuator is developed using the dynamic equation. In addition, Bond Graph methodology is presented for the dynamic simulation. The Bond Graph model comprises individual component modeling of the actuator along with control. Required torque was simulated using the Bond Graph model. Results indicate that, high acceleration (around 20g) can be achieved with modest (3 N-m or less) torque input. A practical prototype of the actuator is designed using SOLIDWORKS and then produced to verify the proof of concept. The design goal was to achieve the peak acceleration of more than 10g at the middle point of the travel length, when the end effector travels the stroke length (around 1 m). The actuator is primarily designed to operate in standalone condition and later to use it in the 3RPR parallel robot. A DC motor is used to operate the actuator. A quadrature encoder is attached with the DC motor to control the end effector. The associated control scheme of the actuator is analyzed and integrated with the physical prototype. From standalone experimentation of the actuator, around 17g acceleration was achieved by the end effector (stroke length was 0.2m to 0.78m). Results indicate that the developed dynamic model results are in good agreement. Finally, a Design of Experiment (DOE) based statistical approach is also introduced to identify the parametric combination that yields the greatest performance. Data are collected by using the Bond Graph model. This approach is helpful in designing the actuator without much complexity.

Mixtures of g-priors in Generalized Linear Models

Mixtures of Zellner's g-priors have been studied extensively in linear models and have been shown to have numerous desirable properties for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. Several extensions of g-priors to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) have been proposed in the literature; however, the choice of prior distribution of g and resulting properties for inference have received considerably less attention. In this paper, we extend mixtures of g-priors to GLMs by assigning the truncated Compound Confluent Hypergeometric (tCCH) distribution to 1/(1+g) and illustrate how this prior distribution encompasses several special cases of mixtures of g-priors in the literature, such as the Hyper-g, truncated Gamma, Beta-prime, and the Robust prior. Under an integrated Laplace approximation to the likelihood, the posterior distribution of 1/(1+g) is in turn a tCCH distribution, and approximate marginal likelihoods are thus available analytically. We discuss the local geometric properties of the g-prior in GLMs and show that specific choices of the hyper-parameters satisfy the various desiderata for model selection proposed by Bayarri et al, such as asymptotic model selection consistency, information consistency, intrinsic consistency, and measurement invariance. We also illustrate inference using these priors and contrast them to others in the literature via simulation and real examples.

Essays on Firm Heterogeneity with Empirical Applications in Economic History and Agricultural Economics

This thesis uses models of firm-heterogeneity to complete empirical analyses in economic history and agricultural economics. In Chapter 2, a theoretical model of firm heterogeneity is used to derive a statistic that summarizes the welfare gains from the introduction of a new technology. The empirical application considers the use of mechanical steam power in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the late nineteenth century. I exploit exogenous variation in geography to estimate several parameters of the model. My results indicate that the use of steam power resulted in a 15.1 percent increase in firm-level productivity and a 3.0-5.2 percent increase in aggregate welfare. Chapter 3 considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a dynamic model of the demand for quotas with farmers that are heterogeneous in their marginal cost of milk production. The econometric analysis uses farm-level data and estimates a parameter of the theoretical model that is required for the counterfactual experiments. The results indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16 percent expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products. In Chapter 4, I study the relationship between farm-level productivity and participation in the Commercial Export Milk (CEM) program. I use a difference-in-difference research design with inverse propensity weights to test for causality between participation in the CEM program and total factor productivity (TFP). I find a positive correlation between participation in the CEM program and TFP, however I find no statistically significant evidence that the CEM program affected TFP.

Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico

LINS, Filipe C. A. et al. Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE PESQUISA E DESENVOLVIMENTO EM PETRÓLEO E GÁS, 5. 2009, Fortaleza, CE. Anais... Fortaleza: CBPDPetro, 2009.

Evaluación del estado poblaciónal del Cangrejo violáceo Platyxanthus orbignyi (Milne Edwards y Lucas, 1843) del área de Lambayeque por medio de un modelo dinámico de Biomasa

Se hace un análisis del estado poblacional del cangrejo violáceo Platyxanthus orbignyi (Milne Edwards y Lucas, 1843) del litoral de Lambayeque – Perú para el periodo 2001-2010 por medio de: 1) El modelo dinámico de biomasa de Schaefer en su versión de error de observación; a este modelo se le introdujo la variable ambiental anomalía de la temperatura superficial del mar (ATSM) del área de San José (Lambayeque) y se obtuvo 2) el modelo dinámico con variable ambiental, ambos basados en datos de captura, esfuerzo y CPUE. Se utilizó el método de máxima verosimilitud en el proceso de ajuste y el bootstrap para determinar los intervalos de confianza de los parámetros. Los parámetros poblacionales y pesqueros estimados por el modelo dinámico de biomasa de Schaefer (MDB) fueron: K: 750 000 kg, r : 0,21 y q: 8,36 x 10-6 y por el modelo dinámico con variable ambiental (MDVA) los parámetros fueron K: 765 000 kg, r: 0,23 y q: 8,02 x 10-6. Con los valores de los parámetros estimados mediante el MDB y el MDVA se calcularon los principales puntos biológicos de referencia (PBR) los cuales fueron: MRS: 39 822 kg, BMRS: 375 000 kg, fMRS: 12 561 nasas, FMRS: 0,11, F0.1: 0,10 para el MDB; y MRS: 44 069 kg, BMRS: 382 500 kg, fMRS: 13 782 nasas, FMRS: 0,12, F0.1: 0,10 para el MDVA. Los resultados indican que el estado actual de la pesquería del cangrejo violáceo del Litoral de Lambayeque se encuentra muy cerca al nivel óptimo. En vista de que no se dispone de información de evaluaciones directas de este recurso que confirme o no los resultados del MDB y MDVA y en virtud de la calidad de datos, se sugiere que el manejo de la pesquería sea del tipo adaptativo alrededor del punto de referencia F0.1 y teniendo en cuenta las condiciones ambientales.

Implications de l’hétérogénéité comportementale et biologique pour la vaccination contre les virus du papillome humain au niveau de la population : modélisation mathématique, revue systématique et méta-analyse

Objectifs : Dans plusieurs pays la couverture vaccinale contre les virus du papillome humain (VPH) est associée aux déterminants sociaux des comportements sexuels et la participation au dépistage du cancer du col utérin. Ces vaccins protègent uniquement contre certains types de VPH, donc leur impact futur sur les VPH nonvaccinaux demeure incertain. L’hétérogénéité comportementale entre individus et biologique entre types de VPH affectera l’efficacité populationnelle de la vaccination contre les VPH. Les objectifs spécifiques de cette thèse étaient 1) de modéliser comment une couverture vaccinale inégale entre filles préadolescentes qui différeront selon leur activité sexuelle et leur participation au dépistage du cancer du col affectera l’efficacité populationnelle de la vaccination, 2) faire une synthèse et comparer les estimés d’efficacité croisée des vaccins contre les VPH dans des populations ADN-négatives aux VPH et 3) d’identifier, avec la modélisation, les devis d’étude épidémiologique qui réduisent les biais dans l’estimation des interactions biologiques entre types de VPH. Méthode : Nous avons utilisé des modèles de transmission dynamique et une revue systématique de la littérature pour répondre aux objectifs. 1) Nous avons modélisé une couverture vaccinale inégale entre filles qui différeront selon leur activité sexuelle et leur participation au dépistage, et examiné les changements postvaccination dans l’inégalité dans la prévalence des VPH et l’incidence des carcinomes malpighien (SCC) du col de l’utérus entre femmes ayant différents comportements. 2) Nous avons effectué une revue systématique et méta-analyse des efficacités croisées des vaccins contre les VPH estimées dans des populations ADNnégatives aux VPH. 3) Nous avons développé des modèles de transmission dynamique et d’interaction de deux types de VPH pour simuler les études épidémiologiques d’interactions entre les VPH. Résultats : Pour l’objectif 1), notre modèle de transmission prédit que l’efficacité populationnelle du vaccin dépendra de la distribution du vaccin dans la population. Après la vaccination, les inégalités absolues dans l’incidence de l’infection et des SCC entre groupes de femmes qui diffèrent selon leur activité sexuelle et leur participation au dépistage devraient diminuer. Inversement, les inégalités relatives pourraient augmenter si les femmes plus sexuellement actives et celles qui ne se font jamais dépister ont une couverture vaccinale moins élevée que les autres. Le taux d’incidence des SCC demeurera élevé chez les femmes qui ne sont jamais dépistées après la vaccination. L’efficacité croisée vaccinale et les interactions biologiques entre VPH ne sont pas encore assez bien caractérisées pour pouvoir prédire l’impact du vaccin sur les types de VPH nonvaccinaux. Pour l’objectif 2), notre méta-analyse des essais cliniques des vaccins suggère que le vaccin bivalent a une efficacité croisée significativement plus élevée que le quadrivalent contre les infections persistantes et lésions précancéreuses avec les VPH-31, 33 et 45. Les essais cliniques plus longs estiment une efficacité croisée plus faible. La modélisation des études épidémiologiques d’interactions pour l’objectif 3) montre que l’estimation des interactions biologiques entre types de VPH dans les études épidémiologiques est systématiquement biaisée par la corrélation entre le temps à risque d’infection avec un type de VPH et le temps à risque d’infection avec d’autres types de VPH. L’ajustement pour des marqueurs d’activité sexuelle ne réussit pas à contrôler ce biais. Une mesure valide des interactions biologiques entre types de VPH peut être obtenue uniquement avec des études épidémiologiques prospectives qui restreignent les analyses à des individus susceptibles ayant des partenaires sexuels infectés. Conclusion : L’hétérogénéité comportementale entre individus et l’hétérogénéité biologique entre VPH affecteront l’efficacité populationnelle du vaccin contre les VPH. Dans les contextes où les déterminants sociaux des comportements sexuels et la participation au dépistage sont aussi associés à la couverture vaccinale chez les préadolescentes, l’inégalité relative dans l’incidence des SCC risque d’augmenter. Ces comportements demeureront des facteurs de risque importants du cancer du col à l’avenir. L’effet à long terme du vaccin sur les types de VPH non-vaccinaux demeure incertain. Quoique nos résultats suggèrent que les vaccins offrent une efficacité croisée contre certains types de VPH, celle-ci pourrait diminuer après quelques années. Des interactions compétitives entre VPH pourraient exister malgré les associations observées entre les incidences des infections VPH, donc une augmentation post-vaccination de la prévalence des VPH non-vaccinaux demeure possible. Des devis d’analyse plus complexes sont nécessaires pour mesurer de façon valide les interactions biologiques entre les VPH dans les études épidémiologiques.

Développement et expérimentation d'algorithmes de réorientation pour un robot sériel en chute libre

Ce mémoire présente 2 types de méthodes pour effectuer la réorientation d’un robot sériel en chute libre en utilisant les mouvements internes de celui-ci. Ces mouvements sont prescrits à partir d’algorithmes de planification de trajectoire basés sur le modèle dynamique du robot. La première méthode tente de réorienter le robot en appliquant une technique d’optimisation locale fonctionnant avec une fonction potentielle décrivant l’orientation du système, et la deuxième méthode applique des fonctions sinusoïdales aux articulations pour réorienter le robot. Pour tester les performances des méthodes en simulation, on tente de réorienter le robot pour une configuration initiale et finale identiques où toutes les membrures sont alignées mais avec le robot ayant complété une rotation de 180 degrés sur lui-même. Afin de comparer les résultats obtenus avec la réalité, un prototype de robot sériel plan flottant possédant trois membrures et deux liaisons rotoïdes est construit. Les expérimentations effectuées montrent que le prototype est capable d’atteindre les réorientations prescrites si peu de perturbations extérieures sont présentes et ce, même si le contrôle de l’orientation est effectué en boucle ouverte.

Medidas de eficiência energética numa indústria cerâmica

O presente relatório resulta de um estágio realizado no âmbito da eficiência energética assente no programa Galp 20-20-20 que tem por génese uma parceria entre a Universidade de Aveiro e a empresa de coberturas cerâmicas, CS – Coelho da Silva S.A. A Fábrica alvo de estudo é uma consumidora intensiva de energia, despendeu no ano de 2013 cerca de 3.768 tep. Devido aos seus processos de cozedura e secagem, apresenta uma elevada dependência de Gás Natural, representando pouco mais de 78% do consumo global da fábrica. Deste consumo de energia térmica, 83% respeita ao forno e os restantes 17% encontram-se alocados ao secador, pelo que as medidas de eficiência energética presentes neste relatório centram-se da redução deste vetor energético. São então propostas três medidas para a redução da dependência deste vetor. A primeira, incide na recuperação de calor residual presente nos gases de exaustão através da instalação de um permutador de calor. Esta medida permite uma redução do consumo na ordem dos 10% e conta com um payback de 2,3 anos resultante de uma economia anual de 150.000 €. Para este estudo foi desenvolvido um modelo dinâmico em excel que permite a simulação de diversos cenários. São também propostas mais duas intervenções que incidem na alteração do circuito térmico. Estas medidas têm um impacte mais reduzido no que respeita ao percentual de redução energético, ambas com menos de 1% de redução do consumo global da fábrica. Contudo são medidas bastante interessantes dada a sua simplicidade e contam com poupanças anuais na ordem dos 6.000 € que resultam num payback inferior a 2 meses. Paralelamente executaram-se dois estudos para a iluminação, o primeiro sugere a instalação de um modelador de tensão que reduz a potência de iluminação em 36%, implicando uma redução da iluminância de cerca de 5%. A redução da potência resulta numa economia energética na ordem dos 0,4% da energia global da instalação. Este equipamento poderá ser adquirido por completo ou em renting. Ao optar pela compra integral, o investimento será apenas ressarcido em 2,8 anos resultante de uma poupança anula de perto de 6.500 €. Caso seja por renting este não tem qualquer custo adicional e as economias monetárias são partilhadas entre a empresa que fornece o equipamento e a CS-Coelho da Silva, S.A. Por fim é sugerida a substituição de parte da iluminação atual da fábrica por tecnologia LED, com esta medida reduz-se o consumo global em 0,76%. Esta medida gera uma economia monetária na ordem dos 11.500 € sendo ressarcida em 2,1 anos.

Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico

LINS, Filipe C. A. et al. Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE PESQUISA E DESENVOLVIMENTO EM PETRÓLEO E GÁS, 5. 2009, Fortaleza, CE. Anais... Fortaleza: CBPDPetro, 2009.

O risco dos bancos, regulação e a crise financeira internacional

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, 13 de Julho de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.

A Modeling Approach to Quantify the Effects of Stomatal Behavior and Mesophyll Conductance on Leaf Water Use Efficiency

Water use efficiency (WUE) is considered as a determinant of yield under stress and a component of crop drought resistance. Stomatal behavior regulates both transpiration rate and net assimilation and has been suggested to be crucial for improving crop WUE. In this work, a dynamic model was used to examine the impact of dynamic properties of stomata on WUE. The model includes sub-models of stomatal conductance dynamics, solute accumulation in the mesophyll, mesophyll water content, and water flow to the mesophyll. Using the instantaneous value of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis, and transpiration rate were simulated using a biochemical model and Penman-Monteith equation, respectively. The model was parameterized for a cucumber leaf and model outputs were evaluated using climatic data. Our simulations revealed that WUE was higher on a cloudy than a sunny day. Fast stomatal reaction to light decreased WUE during the period of increasing light (e.g., in the morning) by up to 10.2% and increased WUE during the period of decreasing light (afternoon) by up to 6.25%. Sensitivity of daily WUE to stomatal parameters and mesophyll conductance to CO2 was tested for sunny and cloudy days. Increasing mesophyll conductance to CO2 was more likely to increase WUE for all climatic conditions (up to 5.5% on the sunny day) than modifications of stomatal reaction speed to light and maximum stomatal conductance.