Policy making in divided government. A pivotal actors model with party discipline

This article presents a formal model of policy decision-making in an institutional framework of separation of powers in which the main actors are pivotal political parties with voting discipline. The basic model previously developed from pivotal politics theory for the analysis of the United States lawmaking is here modified to account for policy outcomes and institutional performances in other presidential regimes, especially in Latin America. Legislators' party indiscipline at voting and multi-partism appear as favorable conditions to reduce the size of the equilibrium set containing collectively inefficient outcomes, while a two-party system with strong party discipline is most prone to produce 'gridlock', that is, stability of socially inefficient policies. The article provides a framework for analysis which can induce significant revisions of empirical data, especially regarding the effects of situations of (newly defined) unified and divided government, different decision rules, the number of parties and their discipline. These implications should be testable and may inspire future analytical and empirical work.

A scaled difference chi-square test statistic for moment structure analysis

A family of scaling corrections aimed to improve the chi-square approximation of goodness-of-fit test statistics in small samples, large models, and nonnormal data was proposed in Satorra and Bentler (1994). For structural equations models, Satorra-Bentler's (SB) scaling corrections are available in standard computer software. Often, however, the interest is not on the overall fit of a model, but on a test of the restrictions that a null model say ${\cal M}_0$ implies on a less restricted one ${\cal M}_1$. If $T_0$ and $T_1$ denote the goodness-of-fit test statistics associated to ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$, respectively, then typically the difference $T_d = T_0 - T_1$ is used as a chi-square test statistic with degrees of freedom equal to the difference on the number of independent parameters estimated under the models ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$. As in the case of the goodness-of-fit test, it is of interest to scale the statistic $T_d$ in order to improve its chi-square approximation in realistic, i.e., nonasymptotic and nonnormal, applications. In a recent paper, Satorra (1999) shows that the difference between two Satorra-Bentler scaled test statistics for overall model fit does not yield the correct SB scaled difference test statistic. Satorra developed an expression that permits scaling the difference test statistic, but his formula has some practical limitations, since it requires heavy computations that are notavailable in standard computer software. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an easy way to compute the scaled difference chi-square statistic from the scaled goodness-of-fit test statistics of models ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$. A Monte Carlo study is provided to illustrate the performance of the competing statistics.

The variability of money velocity in a generalized cash-in-advance model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand wherethe velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant and equal to one as in cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). Despite its simplicity, in terms of paramaters to calibrate, the model performs surprisingly well. In particular, it approximates the variability of money velocity observed in the U.S. for the post-war period. The model is then used to analyze the welfare costs of inflation under uncertainty. This application calculates the errors derived from computing the costs of inflation with deterministic models. It turns out that the size of this difference is small, at least for the levels of uncertainty estimated for the U.S. economy.

On the structural difference between the evolutionary approach of Young and that of Kandori, Mailath and Rob

We provide robust examples of symmetric two-player coordination games in normal form that reveal that equilibrium selection bythe evolutionary model of Young (1993) is essentially different from equilibrium selection by the evolutionary model of Kandori, Mailath and Rob (1993).

TRENDS IN HOSPITAL MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION IN SWITZERLAND, 1998 TO 2008 THE REGION MAKES THE DIFFERENCE: DISPARITIES IN MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION WITHIN SWITZERLAND

The aim of this master's thesis was to assess the ten- year trends and regional differences in management and outcome of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) within Switzerland. The thesis is composed of two articles. First, in the article "Trends in hospital management of acute myocardial infarction in Switzerland, 1998 to 2008" over 102,700 cases of AMI with corresponding management and revascularization procedures were assessed. The results showed a considerable increase in the numbers of hospital discharges for AMI, namely due to the increase of between- hospital transfers. Rates of intensive care unit admissions remained stable. All types of revascularization procedures showed an increase. In particular, overall stenting rates increased with drug-eluting stents partly replacing bare stents. Second, in the article "The region makes the difference: disparities in management of acute myocardial infarction within Switzerland" around 25,600 cases of AMI with corresponding management were assessed for the period of 2007-2008 and according to seven Swiss regions. As reported by our results, considerable regional differences in AMI management were stated within Switzerland. Although each region showed different trends regarding revascularization interventions, Leman and Ticino contrast significantly by presenting the minimum and maximum rates in almost all assessed parameters. As a consequence these two regions differ the most from the Swiss average. The impact of the changes in trends and the regional differences in AMI management on Swiss patient's outcome and economics remains to be assessed. Purpose: To assess ten-year trends in management and outcome of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Switzerland. Methods: Swiss hospital discharge database for the 1998 to 2008 period. AMI was defined as a primary discharge diagnosis code I21 according to the CIM-10 classification of the World Health Organization. Management and revascularization procedures were assessed. Results: Overall, 102,729 hospital discharges with a diagnosis of AMI were analyzed. The number of hospital discharges increased almost three-fold from 5530 in 1998 to 13,834 in 2008, namely due to a considerable increase in between-hospital transfers (1352 in 1998, 6494 in 2008). Relative to all hospital discharges, Intensive Care Unit admission rate was 38.0% in 1998 and remained stable (36.2%) in 2008 (p for trend=0.25). Percutaneous revascularization rates increased from 6.0% to 39.9% (p for trend<0.001). Non-drug-eluting stent use increased from 1.3% to 16.6% (p for trend<0.05). Drug eluting stents appeared in 2004 and increased to 23.5% of hospital discharges in 2008 (p for trend=0.07). Coronary artery bypass graft increased from 1.0% to 3.0% (p for trend<0.001). Circulatory assistance increased from 0.2% to 1.7% (p for trend<0.001). Thrombolysis showed no significant changes, from 0.5% to 1.9% (p for trend=0.64). Most of these trends were confirmed after multivariate adjustment. Conclusion: Between 1998 and 2008 the number of hospital discharges for AMI increased considerably in Switzerland, namely due to between-hospital transfers. Overall stenting rates increased, drug-eluting stents partly replacing bare stents. The impact of these changes on outcome and economics remains to be assessed.

Difference in distribution of microtubule-associated proteins 5a and 5b during the development of cerebral cortex and corpus callosum in cats: dependence on phosphorylation.

MAP5, a microtubule-associated protein characteristic of differentiating neurons, was studied in the developing visual cortex and corpus callosum of the cat. In juvenile cortical tissue, during the first month after birth, MAP5 is present as a protein doublet of molecular weights of 320 and 300 kDa, defined as MAP5a and MAP5b, respectively. MAP5a is the phosphorylated form. MAP5a decreases two weeks after birth and is no longer detectable at the beginning of the second postnatal month; MAP5b also decreases after the second postnatal week but more slowly and it is still present in the adult. In the corpus callosum only MAP5a is present between birth and the end of the first postnatal month. Afterwards only MAP5b is present but decreases in concentration more than 3-fold towards adulthood. Our immunocytochemical studies show MAP5 in somata, dendrites and axonal processes of cortical neurons. In adult tissue it is very prominent in pyramidal cells of layer V. In the corpus callosum MAP5 is present in axons at all ages. There is strong evidence that MAP5a is located in axons while MAP5b seems restricted to somata and dendrites until P28, but is found in callosal axons from P39 onwards. Biochemical experiments indicate that the state of phosphorylation of MAP5 influences its association with structural components. After high speed centrifugation of early postnatal brain tissue, MAP5a remains with pellet fractions while most MAP5b is soluble. In conclusion, phosphorylation of MAP5 may regulate (1) its intracellular distribution within axons and dendrites, and (2) its ability to interact with other subcellular components.

Soil shear strength under non-irrigated and irrigated short duration grazing systems

Pasture productivity can drop due to soil compaction caused by animal trampling. Physical and mechanical alterations are therefore extremely important indicators for pasture management. The objective of this research was to: draw and evaluate the Mohr failure line of a Red Yellow Latossol under different pasture cycles and natural forest; calculate apparent cohesion; observe possible physical alterations in this soil; and propose a correction factor for stocking rates based on shear strength properties. This study was conducted between March/2006 and March/2007 on the Experimental Farm of Fundação de Ensino Superior de Passos, in Passos, state of Minas Gerais. The total study area covered 6 ha, of which 2 ha were irrigated pasture, 2 ha non-irrigated pasture and 2 ha natural forest. Brachiaria brizantha cv. MG-5 Vitória was used as forage plant. The pasture area was divided into paddocks. The Mohr failure line of samples of a Red Yellow Latossol under irrigated pasture equilibrated at a tension of water content of 6 kPa indicated higher shear strength than under non-irrigated pasture. The shear strength under irrigated pasture and natural forest was higher than under non-irrigated pasture. At a tension of water content of 33 kPa no difference was found in shear strength between management and use. Possible changes in soil structure were caused by apparent cohesion. The values of the correction factor were close to 1, which may indicate a possible soil compaction in prolonged periods of management.

Circadian variations of ischemic burden among patients with myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Several parameters of cardiovascular physiology and pathophysiology exhibit circadian rhythms. Recently, a relation between infarct size and the time of day at which it occurs has been suggested in experimental models of myocardial infarction. The aim of this study is to investigate whether circadian rhythms could cause differences in ischemic burden in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI).¦METHODS: In 353 consecutive patients with STEMI treated by PPCI, time of symptom onset, peak creatine kinase (CK), and follow-up at 30 days were obtained. We divided 24 hours into 4 time groups based on time of symptom onset (00:00-05:59, 06:00-11:59, 12:00-17:59, and 18:00-23:59).¦RESULTS: There was no difference between the groups regarding baseline patients and management's characteristics. At multivariable analysis, there was a statistically significant difference between peak CK levels among patients with symptom onset between 00:00 and 05:59 when compared with peak CK levels of patients with symptom onset in any other time group (mean increase 38.4%, P < .05). Thirty-day mortality for STEMI patients with symptom onset occurring between 00:00 and 05:59 was significantly higher than any other time group (P < .05).¦CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates an independent correlation between the infarct size of STEMI patients treated by PPCI and the time of the day at which symptoms occurred. These results suggest that time of the day should be a critical issue to look at when assessing prognosis of patients with myocardial infarction.

Difference in the homocysteine-lowering effect of folic acid in haemodialysis patients with and without occlusive vascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Hyperhomocysteinaemia has been identified as an independent cardiovascular risk factor and is found in more than 85% of patients on maintenance haemodialysis. Previous studies have shown that folic acid can lower circulating homocysteine in dialysis patients. We evaluated prospectively the effect of increasing the folic acid dosage from 1 to 6 mg per dialysis on plasma total homocysteine levels of haemodialysis patients with and without a history of occlusive vascular artery disease (OVD). METHODS: Thirty-nine stable patients on high-flux dialysis were studied. Their mean age was 63 +/-11 years and 17 (43%) had a history of OVD, either coronary and/or cerebral and/or peripheral occlusive disease. For several years prior to the study, the patients had received an oral post-dialysis multivitamin supplement including 1 mg of folic acid per dialysis. After baseline determinations, the folic acid dose was increased from 1 to 6 mg/dialysis for 3 months. RESULTS: After 3 months, plasma homocysteine had decreased significantly by approximately 23% from 31.1 +/- 12.7 to 24.5 +/- 9 micromol/l (P = 0.0005), while folic acid concentrations had increased from 6.5 +/- 2.5 to 14.4+/-2.5 microg/l (P < 0.0001). However, the decrease of homocysteine was quite different in patients with and in those without OVD. In patients with OVD, homocysteine decreased only marginally by approximately 2.5% (from 29.0 +/- 10.3 to 28.3 +/- 8.4 micromol/l, P = 0.74), whereas in patients without OVD there was a significant reduction of approximately 34% (from 32.7+/-14.4 to 21.6+/-8.6 micromol/l, P = 0.0008). Plasma homocysteine levels were reduced by > 15% in three patients (18%) in the group with OVD compared with 19 (86%) in the group without OVD (P = 0.001), and by > 30% in none of the patients (0%) in the former group compared with 13 (59%) in the latter (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that the homocysteine-lowering effect of folic acid administration appears to be less effective in haemodialysis patients having occlusive vascular disease than in those without evidence of such disease.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Water-Stable Aggregates and Associated Carbon in a Subtropical Rice Soil Under Variable Tillage

ABSTRACT Tillage systems can influence C sequestration by changing aggregate formation and C distribution within the aggregate. This study was undertaken to explore the impact of no-tillage without straw (NT-S) and with straw (NT+S), and moldboard plow without straw (MP-S) and with straw (MP+S), on soil aggregation and aggregate-associated C after six years of double rice planting in a Hydragric Anthrosol in Guangxi, southwest of China. Soil samples of 0.00-0.05, 0.05-0.20 and 0.20-0.30 m layers were wet-sieved and divided into four aggregate-size classes, >2 mm, 2.00-0.25 mm, 0.25-0.053 and <0.053 mm, respectively, for measuring aggregate associated C and humic and fulvic acids. Results showed that the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock in bulk soil was 40.2-51.1 % higher in the 0.00-0.05 m layer and 11.3-17.0 % lower in the 0.05-0.20 m layer in NT system (NT+S and NT-S) compared to the MP system (MP+S and MP-S), respectively. However, no statistical difference was found across the whole 0.00-0.30 m layer. The NT system increased the proportion of >2 mm aggregate fraction and reduced the proportion of <0.053 mm aggregates in both 0.00-0.05 and 0.05-0.20 m layers. The SOC concentration, SOC stock and humic and fulvic acids within the >0.25 mm macroaggregate fraction also significantly increased in the 0.00-0.5 m layer in NT system. However, those within the 2.00-0.25 mm aggregate fraction were significantly reduced in the 0.05-0.200 m layer under NT system. Straw incorporation increased not only the SOC stock in bulk soil, but also the proportion of macroaggregate, aggregate associated with SOC and humic and fulvic acids concentration within the aggregate. The effect of straw on C sequestration might be dependent on the location of straw incorporation. In conclusion, the NT system increased the total SOC accumulation and humic and fulvic acids within macroaggregates, thus contributing to C sequestration in the 0.00-0.05 m layer.