Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

Inheritance of time to flowering in cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.)

Time to flowering and maturity is an important adaptive feature in annual crops, including cowpeas (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.). In West and Central Africa, photoperiod is the most important environmental variable affecting time to flowering in cowpea. The inheritance of time from sowing to flowering (f) in cowpeas was studied by crossing a photoperiod-sensitive genotype Kanannnado to a photoperiod-insensitive variety IT97D-941-1. Sufficient seed of F-1, F-2, F-3 and backcross populations were generated. The parental, F-1, F-2, F-3 and the backcross populations were screened for f under long natural days (mean daylength 13.4 h per day) in the field and the parents, F-1, F-2 and backcross populations under short day (10 h per day) conditions. The result of the screening showed that photoperiod in the field was long enough to delay flowering of photoperiod-sensitive genotypes. Photoperiod-sensitivity was found to be partially dominant to insensitivity. Frequency distribution of the trait in the various populations indicated quantitative inheritance. Additive (d) and additive x dominance (j) interactions were the most important gene actions conditioning time to flowering. A narrow sense heritability of 86% was estimated for this trait. This will result in 26 days gain in time to flowering with 5% selection intensity from the F-2 to F-3 generation. At least seven major gene pairs, with an average delay of 6 days each, were estimated to control time to flowering in this cross.

Quantum studies of the vibrations in H3O2- and D3O2-

The vibrations of H3O2- and D3O2- are investigated using diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) and vibrational configuration-interaction approaches, as implemented in the program MULTIMODE. These studies use the potential surface recently developed by Huang [ J. Am. Chem. Soc. 126, 5042 (2004)]. The focus of this work is on the vibrational ground state and fundamentals which occur between 100 and 3700 cm(-1). In most cases, excellent agreement is obtained between the fundamental frequencies calculated by the two approaches. This serves to demonstrate the power of both methods for treating this very anharmonic system. Based on the results of the MULTIMODE and DMC treatments, the extent and nature of the couplings in H3O2- and D3O2- are investigated. (C) 2005 American Institute of Physics.

Dietary intakes and food sources of phytoestrogens in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) 24-hour dietary recall cohort

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Phytoestrogens are estradiol-like natural compounds found in plants that have been associated with protective effects against chronic diseases, including some cancers, cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis. The purpose of this study was to estimate the dietary intake of phytoestrogens, identify their food sources and their association with lifestyle factors in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Single 24-hour dietary recalls were collected from 36 037 individuals from 10 European countries, aged 35–74 years using a standardized computerized interview programe (EPIC-Soft). An ad hoc food composition database on phytoestrogens (isoflavones, lignans, coumestans, enterolignans and equol) was compiled using data from available databases, in order to obtain and describe phytoestrogen intakes and their food sources across 27 redefined EPIC centres. RESULTS: Mean total phytoestrogen intake was the highest in the UK health-conscious group (24.9 mg/day in men and 21.1 mg/day in women) whereas lowest in Greece (1.3 mg/day) in men and Spain-Granada (1.0 mg/day) in women. Northern European countries had higher intakes than southern countries. The main phytoestrogen contributors were isoflavones in both UK centres and lignans in the other EPIC cohorts. Age, body mass index, educational level, smoking status and physical activity were related to increased intakes of lignans, enterolignans and equol, but not to total phytoestrogen, isoflavone or coumestan intakes. In the UK cohorts, the major food sources of phytoestrogens were soy products. In the other EPIC cohorts the dietary sources were more distributed, among fruits, vegetables, soy products, cereal products, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high variability in the dietary intake of total and phytoestrogen subclasses and their food sources across European regions.

Estimated dietary intakes and sources of flavanols in the German population (German National Nutrition Survey II)

Background/Objectives Data from intervention studies suggest a beneficial effect of flavanols on vascular health. However, insufficient data on their intake have delayed the assessment of their health benefits. The aim of this study was to estimate intake of flavanols and their main sources among people living in Germany. Subjects/Methods Data from diet history interviews of the German National Nutrition Survey II for 15,371 people across Germany aged 14–80 years were analyzed. The FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition Database was compiled using the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer Databases and expanded to include recipes and retention factors. Results Mean intake of total flavanols, flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins (PA), and theaflavins in Germany was 386, 120, 196, and 70 mg/day, respectively. Women had higher intakes of total flavanols (399 mg/day) than men (372 mg/day) in all age groups, with the exception of the elderly. Similar results were observed for monomers (108 mg/day for men, 131 mg/day for women) and PA (190 mg/day; 203 mg/day), although intake of theaflavins was higher in men (74 mg/day; 66 mg/day). There was an age gradient with an increase in total flavanols, monomers, and theaflavins across the age groups. The major contributor of total flavanols in all subjects was pome fruits (27 %) followed by black tea (25 %). Conclusions This study demonstrated age- and sex-related variations in the intake and sources of dietary flavanols in Germany. The current analysis will provide a valuable tool in clarifying and confirming the potential health benefits of flavanols.

Multi-scale sensible heat fluxes in the urban environment from large aperture scintillometry and eddy covariance

Sensible heat fluxes (QH) are determined using scintillometry and eddy covariance over a suburban area. Two large aperture scintillometers provide spatially integrated fluxes across path lengths of 2.8 km and 5.5 km over Swindon, UK. The shorter scintillometer path spans newly built residential areas and has an approximate source area of 2-4 km2, whilst the long path extends from the rural outskirts to the town centre and has a source area of around 5-10 km2. These large-scale heat fluxes are compared with local-scale eddy covariance measurements. Clear seasonal trends are revealed by the long duration of this dataset and variability in monthly QH is related to the meteorological conditions. At shorter time scales the response of QH to solar radiation often gives rise to close agreement between the measurements, but during times of rapidly changing cloud cover spatial differences in the net radiation (Q*) coincide with greater differences between heat fluxes. For clear days QH lags Q*, thus the ratio of QH to Q* increases throughout the day. In summer the observed energy partitioning is related to the vegetation fraction through use of a footprint model. The results demonstrate the value of scintillometry for integrating surface heterogeneity and offer improved understanding of the influence of anthropogenic materials on surface-atmosphere interactions.

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

Present bias predicts participation in payments for environmental services: evidence from a behavioral experiment in Uganda

Farmers are necessary agents in global efforts to conserve the environment now that croplands and pastures together constitute the largest terrestrial system on Earth – covering some 48% of ice-free land surface. Whereas standard economic models predict that farmers will participate in conservation programs so long as they are profitable, empirical findings from behavioral economics point to a number of normally unobservable preferences that may influence the decision-making process. This study tests, for the first time, whether heterogeneity in behavioral preferences correlates with decisions to participate in Payments for Environmental Services (PES) programs. We elicit individual trust and time preferences using economic experiments and link resulting measures to household survey data and participation decisions in a Ugandan PES program. We find that farmers who exhibit a preference for proximate gains – present-biased preferences – are 47.7% more likely to participate in the program than those who show time-consistent or future-biased preferences. This result has implications for ongoing and planned PES programs involving farmers, particularly in Africa, by highlighting a potential relationship between payment timing and participation, and further validates the use of behavioral experiments in explaining real-world decisions.

Could in-home sensors surpass human observation of people with Parkinson’s at high risk of falling? An ethnographic study

Self-report underpins our understanding of falls among people with Parkinson’s (PwP) as they largely happen unwitnessed at home. In this qualitative study, we used an ethnographic approach to investigate which in-home sensors, in which locations, could gather useful data about fall risk. Over six weeks, we observed five independently mobile PwP at high risk of falling, at home. We made field notes about falls (prior events and concerns) and recorded movement with video, Kinect, and wearable sensors. The three women and two men (aged 71 to 79 years) having moderate or severe Parkinson’s were dependent on others and highly sedentary. We most commonly noted balance protection, loss, and restoration during chair transfers, walks across open spaces and through gaps, turns, steps up and down, and tasks in standing (all evident walking between chair and stairs, e.g.). Our unobtrusive sensors were acceptable to participants: they could detect instability during everyday activity at home and potentially guide intervention. Monitoring the route between chair and stairs is likely to give information without invading the privacy of people at high risk of falling, with very limited mobility, who spend most of the day in their sitting rooms.

Dynamics of biochemical and morphophysiological changes during zygotic embryogenesis in Acca sellowiana (Berg.) Burr.

Acca sellowiana (Berg.) Burr. is a native Myrtaceae from southern Brazil and Uruguay, now the subject of a domestication and breeding program. Biotechnological tools have been used to assist in this program. The establishment of a reliable protocol of somatic embryogenesis has been pursued, with a view to capturing and fixing genetic gains. The rationale behind this work relies on the fact that deepening comprehension of the general metabolism of zygotic embryogenesis may certainly improve the protocol for somatic embryogenesis. Thus, in the present work we studied the accumulation of protein, total sugars, starch, amino acids, polyamines (PAs), IAA and ABA, in different stages of A. sellowiana zygotic embryogenesis. Starch is the predominant storage compound during zygotic embryo development. Increased synthesis of amino acids in the cotyledonary stage, mainly of asparagine, was observed throughout development. Total free PAs showed increased synthesis, whereas total conjugated PAs were mainly observed in the early developmental stages. IAA decreased and ABA increased with the progression from early to late embryogenesis. Besides providing basic information on the morphophysiological and biochemical changes of zygotic embryogenesis, the results here obtained may provide adequate strategies towards the modulation of somatic embryogenesis in this species as well as in other woody angiosperms.

Different mechanisms underlie the effects of acute and long-term inhibition of nitric oxide synthases in antigen-induced pulmonary eosinophil recruitment in BALB/C mice

Nitric oxide synthase (NOS) inhibitors are largely used to evaluate the NO contribution to pulmonary allergy, but contrasting data have been reported. In this study, pharmacological, biochemical and pharmacokinetic assays were performed to compare the effects of acute and long-term treatment of BALB/C mice with the non-selective NOS inhibitor L-NAME in ovalbumin (OVA)-challenged mice. Acute L-NAME treatment (50 mg/kg, gavage) significantly reduced the eosinophil number in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF). The inducible NOS (iNOS) inhibitor aminoguanidine (20 mg/kg/day in the drinking water) also significantly reduced the eosinophil number in BALF In contrast, 3-week L-NAME treatment (50 and 150 mg/kg/day in the drinking water) significantly increased the pulmonary eosinophil influx. The constitutive NOS (cNOS) activity in brain and lungs was reduced by both acute and 3-week L-NAME treatments. The pulmonary iNOS activity was reduced by acute L-NAME (or aminoguanidine), but unaffected by 3-week L-NAME treatment. Acute L-NAME (or aminoguanidine) treatment was more efficient to reduce the NO(x) levels compared with 3-week L-NAME treatment. The pharmacokinetic study revealed that L-NAME is not bioavailable when given orally. After acute L-NAME intake, serum concentrations of the metabolite N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine decreased from 30 min to 24 h. In the 3-week L-NAME treatment, the N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine concentration was close to the detection limit. In conclusion, 3-week treatment with L-NAME yields low serum N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine concentrations, causing preferential inhibition of cNOS activity. Therefore, eosinophil influx potentiation by 3-week L-NAME treatment may reflect removal of protective cNOS-derived NO, with no interference on the ongoing inflammation due to iNOS-derived NO. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combination Efficacy of Voriconazole and Amphotericin B in the Experimental Disease in Immunodeficient Mice Caused by Fluconazole-resistant Cryptococcus neoformans

The therapeutic efficacy of amphotericin B and voriconazole alone and in combination with one another were evaluated in immunodeficient mice (BALB/c-SCID) infected with a fluconazole-resistant strain of Cryptococcus neoformans var. grubii. The animals were infected intravenously with 3 x 10(5) cells and intraperitoneally treated with amphotericin B (1.5 mg/kg/day) in combination with voriconazole (40 mg/kg/days). Treatment began 1 day after inoculation and continued for 7 and 15 days post-inoculation. The treatments were evaluated by survival curves and yeast quantification (CFUs) in brain and lung tissues. Treatments for 15 days significantly promoted the survival of the animals compared to the control groups. Our results indicated that amphotericin B was effective in assuring longest-term survival of infected animals, but these animals still harbored the highest CFU of C. neoformans in lungs and brain at the end of the experiment. Voriconazole was not as effective alone, but in combination with amphotericin B, it prolonged survival for the second-longest time period and provided the lowest colonization of target organs by the fungus. None of the treatments were effective in complete eradication of the fungus in mice lungs and brain at the end of the experiment.

The corrosion of austenitic 304 stainless steel in biodiesel

Fuel distribution uses 304 stainless steel containers for the storage of biofuels, however there are few reports in the literature about the corrosive aspects this. steel in biodiesel. The objective of this research is to study the corrosive behavior of 304 austenitic stainless steel in the presence of biodiesel, unwashed and washed, with aqueous solutions of citric, oxalic, acetic and ascorbic acids 0,01 mol L(-1), and compare with results obtained for the copper (ASTM D130). The employedtechniques were: atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) and optical microscopy (OM). The results of EA A showed a low rate of corrosion for the stainless steel, the alloys elements studied were Cr, Ni and Fe, the highest rate was observed for the chrome, 1.78 ppm / day in biodiesel with or without washing. The OM of the 304 steel, when compared with that of copper has a low corrosion rate in the 304 steel/biodiesel system. Not with standing, this demonstrates that not only the 304 steel, but also the copper corrodes in biodiesel

Students’ Role in Distance Learning

1. IntroductionMuch of the support that students have in a traditional classroom is absent in a distance learning course. In the traditional classroom, the learner is together with his or her classmates and the teacher; learning is socially embedded. Students can talk to each other and may learn from each other as they go through the learning process together. They also witness the teacher’s expression of the knowledge firsthand. The class participants communicate to each other not only through their words, but also through their gestures, facial expressions and tone of voice, and the teacher can observe the students’ progress and provide guidance and feedback in an as-needed basis. Further, through the habit of meeting in a regular place at a regular time, the participants reinforce their own and each other’s commitment to the course. A distance course must somehow provide learners other kinds of supports so that the distance learner also has a sense of connection with a learning community; can benefit from interaction with peers who are going through a similar learning process; receives feedback that allows him or her to know how he or she is progressing; and is guided enough so that he or she continues to progress towards the learning objectives. This cannot be accomplished if the distance course does not simultaneously promote student autonomy, for the distance course format requires students to take greater responsibility for their own learning. This chapter presents one distance learning course that was able to address all of these goals. The English Department at Högskolan Dalarna, Sweden, participates in a distance learning program with Vietnam National University. Students enrolled in this program study half-time for two years to complete a Master’s degree in English Linguistics. The distance courses in this program all contain two types of regular class meetings: one type is student-only seminars conducted through text chat, during which students discuss and complete assignments that prepare them for the other type of class meeting, also conducted through text chat, where the teacher is present and is the one to lead the discussion of seminar issues and assignments. The inclusion of student-only seminars in the course design allows for student independence while at the same time it encourages co-operation and solidarity. The teacher-led seminars offer the advantages of a class led by an expert.In this chapter, we present chatlog data from Vietnamese students in one distance course in English linguistics, comparing the role of the student in both student-only and teacher-led seminars. We discuss how students navigate their participation roles, through computer-mediated communication (CMC), according to seminar type, and we consider the emerging role of the autonomous student in the foreign-language medium, distance learning environment. We close by considering aspects of effective design of distance learning courses from the perspective of a foreign language (FL) environment.

12-month results from a novel test battery used in a duodenal levodopa infusion trial

A novel test battery consisting of self-assessments and motor tests (tapping and spiral drawing) for patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) was developed for a hand computer with touch screen in a telemedicine setting. Tests are performed four times per day in the home environment during weeklong test periods. Results are processed into scores for different dimensions of the symptom state and an ‘overall score’ reflecting the global condition of a patient during a test period. The test battery was validated in a separate study recently submitted to Mov Disord. This test battery is currently being used in an open longitudinal trial (DAPHNE, EudraCT No. 2005- 002654-21) by sixty-five patients with advanced PD at nine clinics around Sweden. On inclusion, the patients were either receiving treatment with duodenal levodopa/carbidopa infusion (Duodopa®) (n=36), or they were candidates for receiving this treatment (n=29). We now present interim results for the first twelve months. Test periods were performed in three-month intervals. During most of the periods, UPDRS ratings were performed in afternoons at the start of the week. In twenty of the patients, scores were available during individually optimized oral polypharamacy, before receiving infusion and at least one test period after having started infusion treatment. Usability and compliance with performing tests, this far are good, both with patients and clinical staff. Correlations between test periods 2 and 3 during infusion treatment (three months apart) are stronger for overall test score than for total UPDRS, indicating good reliability. The correlation between overall test score and UPDRS for all test periods is adequate (r=-0.6). In an exact Wilcoxon signed rank test, where the endpoint is the change from the first to the twelve month test period (n=25), there was no change in test results in any of the test battery dimensions for the patients already receiving infusion when included. However, in the patients entering the study before receiving infusion, there was a significant change (improvement) from the baseline to the twelve month test period in dimensions; ‘off’, ‘dyskinesia’ and ‘satisfied’ and in the ‘overall score’ (n=15). The mean improvement in overall score after infusion was 29% (p=0.015). We conclude that the test battery is able to measure a functional improvement with infusion that is sustained over at least twelve months.