915 resultados para Database search Evidential value Bayesian decision theory Influence diagrams


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This review explores the influence to suicide in print and electronic media, and considers both real and fictional deaths. The conclusion appears inescapable that reports about celebrities which are multi-modal, repeated, explicit, front page, glorify the suicide, and describe the method lead to an increase in deaths from suicide, particularly in the region in which reports are published. The paper argues that even if there was multi-national agreement to international guidelines, media will continue to report suicide when it is considered to be a matter of public interest. What appears crucial is a collaborative approach between professionals and the media to promote a negative attitude toward suicide without increasing stigma toward those with mental health problems.

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This study was designed to test the utility of a revised theory of planned behavior in the prediction of intentions to volunteer among older people. Such a perspective allowed for the consideration of a broader range of social and contextual factors than has been examined in previous research on volunteer decision making among older people. The article reports the findings from a study that investigated volunteer intentions and behavior in a random sample of older people aged 65 to 74 years living in an Australian capital city. Results showed that, as predicted by the revised theory of planned behavior, intention to volunteer predicted subsequent reported volunteer behavior. Intention was, in turn, predicted by social norms (both subjective and behavioral), perceived behavioral control, and moral obligation, with the effect of attitude being mediated through moral obligation.

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The measurement of organic carbon in soils has traditionally used dichromate oxidation procedures including the Wakley and Black and the Heanes methods. The measurement of carbon in soils by high temperature combustion is now widely used providing a rapid automated procedure without the use of toxic chemicals. This procedure however measures total carbon thus requiring some means of correction for soil samples containing carbonate and charcoal forms of carbon. This paper examines the effects of known additions of charcoal to a range of soil types on the results obtained by the Walkley and Black, Heanes and combustion methods. The results show, that while the charcoal carbon does not react under Walkley and Black conditions, some proportion does so with the Heanes method. A comparison of six Australian Soil and Plant Analysis Council reference soil samples by the three methods showed good agreement between the Heanes method, the combustion method and only slightly lower recoveries by the Walkley and Black procedure. Carbonate carbon will cause an overestimation of soil organic carbon by the combustion method thus requiring a separate determination of carbonate carbon to be applied as a correction. This work shows that a suitable acid pre-treatment of alkaline soils in the sample boats followed by a drying step eliminates the carbonate carbon prior to combustion and the need for an additional measurement. The measurement of carbon in soils by high temperature combustion in an oxygen atmosphere has been shown to be a rapid and reliable method capable of producing results in good agreement with one of the established dichromate oxidation procedures.

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This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This article examines child welfare workers' understanding of physical child abuse and the Implications for those supervising these workers. The article Is based on the results of a study that involved In-depth Interviews and focus groups with statutory child welfare workers. Analysis revealed that workers' understanding of physical child abuse embodied a wide range of ideas that were generally consistent with existing literature. The study highlights the value and utility of a reflective approach In stimulating and making explicit the theoretical underpinnings of child welfare workers practice. Specific Implications for professional supervision are addressed.

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Density functional theory for adsorption in carbons is adapted here to incorporate a random distribution of pore wall thickness in the solid, and it is shown that the mean pore wall thickness is intimately related to the pore size distribution characteristics. For typical carbons the pore walls are estimated to comprise only about two graphene layers, and application of the modified density functional theory approach shows that the commonly used assumption of infinitely thick walls can severely affect the results for adsorption in small pores under both supercritical and subcritical conditions. Under supercritical conditions the Henry's law coefficient is overpredicted by as much as a factor of 2, while under subcritical conditions pore wall heterogeneity appears to modify transitions in small pores into a sequence of smaller ones corresponding to pores with different wall thicknesses. The results suggest the need to improve current pore size distrubution analysis methods to allow for pore wall heterogeneity. The density functional theory is further extended here to allow for interpore adsorbate interactions, and it appears that these interaction are negligible for small molecules such as nitrogen but significant for more strongly interacting heavier molecules such as butane, for which the traditional independent pore model may not be adequate.

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In the 70s, a new line of research focused on the study of the influence of the audit report on the decision process of investors, financial analysts and credit analysts. Notwithstanding the numerous studies that have been carried out, results have not been consistent. Given the above, and considering the lack, in Portugal, of a research of this nature, it seems urgent to carry out a study that allows the analysis of the use of the audit report, as well as its influence on the decision making process of Portuguese stakeholders. For that purpose, in the light of the positivist research paradigm, a questionnaire was designed, which was administered by mail and on the Survey Monkey platform to a sample of institutional investors, financial analysts and credit analysts. The statistical analysis of the data obtained was undertaken with resource to the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and SmartPLS 2.0. Corroborating the literature review and the assumptions of the Agency Theory and the Stakeholder Theory, used in the theoretical framework of analysis, empirical evidence has shown that the audit report influences the decision of institutional investors, financial analysts and credit analysts, and that the opinion expressed in that document is the most determinant factor of this influence. In addition to this factor, it was found that the degree of utilization of the audit report, as well as the value ascribed to this document, determine its influence in the decision process of research groups studied. Only in the case of institutional investors, the results did not reveal a correlation between the utility ascribed to the audit report and the influence of this document in their decision making process. In turn, the statistical inference of the model explaining the degree of use of the audit report revealed that it is conditioned by the perceived quality of the information enclosed in the audit report, the utility assigned to the audit report on the decision process, as well as the relevance of the other sources of information used by stakeholders. Therefore, this study allowed proving the importance of the audit report to its users. As a result, we believe to have filled a gap in national literature and to have contributed to the enhancement of international literature. The importance that this document has for the development of any country is, therefore, shown, and it is urgent to maintain rigor in the selection of its staff, in the development of its standards, and especially in the development of audits. Moreover, we also consider that this research may contribute to the improvement of the audit report, insofar as it will help professional bodies to understand the information needs and perceptions of stakeholders.

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The theoretical framework that underpins this research study is based on the Prospect Theory formulated by Kahneman and Tversky, and Thaler's Mental Accounting Theory. The research aims to evaluate the consumers' behavior when different patterns of discount are offered (in percentage and absolute value and for larger and smaller discounts). Two experiments were conducted to explore these patterns of behavior and the results that were obtained supported the view that the framing effect was a common occurrence. The patterns of choice of individuals in a sample were found to be different due to changes in the ways discounts were offered. This can be explained by the various ways of presenting discount rates that had an impact on the influence of purchase intentions, recommendations and quality perception.

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The increasing involvement of individuals in social media over the past decade has enabled firms to pursue new avenues in communication and sponsoring activities. Besides general research on either social media or sponsoring, questions regarding the consequences of a joint activity (sponsoring activities in social media) remain unexplored. Hence, the present study analyses whether the perceived image of the brand and the celebrity endorser credibility of a top sports team influence the perceived brand value of the sponsoring firm in a social media setting. Moreover, these effects are compared between existing customers and non-customers of the sponsoring firm. Interestingly, perceived celebrity endorser credibility plays no role in forming brand value perceptions in the case of the existing customers. Implications for marketing theory and practice are derived.

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In the last decades considerations about equipments' availability became an important issue, as well as its dependence on components characteristics such as reliability and maintainability. This is particularly of outstanding importance if one is dealing with high risk industrial equipments, where these factors play an important and fundamental role in risk management when safety or huge economic values are in discussion. As availability is a function of reliability, maintainability, and maintenance support activities, the main goal is to improve one or more of these factors. This paper intends to show how maintainability can influence availability and present a methodology to select the most important attributes for maintainability using a partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM). Improvements in maintainability can be analyzed assuming it as a probability related with a restore probability density function [g(t)].

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Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

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Alheiras are a traditional, smoked, fermented meat sausage, produced in Portugal, with an undeniable cultural and gastronomic legacy. In this study, we assessed the nutritional value of this product, as well as the influence of different types of thermal processing. Alheiras from Mirandela were submitted to six different procedures: microwave, skillet, oven, charcoal grill, electric fryer and electric grill. Protein, fat, carbohydrate, minerals, NaCl, and cholesterol contents, as well as fatty acid profile were evaluated. The results show that alheiras are not hypercaloric but an unbalanced foodstuff (high levels of proteins and lipids) and the type of processing has a major impact on their nutritional value. Charcoal grill is the healthiest option: less fat (12.5 g/100 g) and cholesterol (29.3 mg/100 g), corresponding to a lower caloric intake (231.8 kcal, less 13% than the raw ones). Inversely, fried alheiras presented the worst nutritional profile, with the highest levels of fat (18.1 g/100 g) and cholesterol (76.0 g/100 g).

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This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.