994 resultados para Crop yield forecasting


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The appropriate chemical management of cover crops in no-tillage aims to obtain greater benefits with its employment in agricultural systems. The objective of this study was to assess upland rice yield as affected by the previous summer crop, species and desiccation timing of cover crops by glyphosate. Sown cover crops were sown (November 2007), followed by rice in half of the experimental area and soybean in the other half (November 2008). After the harvesting of these crops, the same cover crops were sown again (March 2009) and followed by upland rice in the total area (November 2009). The experiment consisted of the combination of five cover crops (fallow, Panicum maximum, Brachiaria ruziziensis, B. brizantha and Pennisetum glaucum), four desiccation timings (30, 20, 10 and 0 days before rice sowing), and two antecedents of the summer crop (rice or soybean) under no-tillage system (NTS), plus two control treatments at conventional tillage system (CTS). Cover crops significantly affect rice grain yield and its components. There is a significant tendency to highest yield when cover crop desiccation is conducted farther from the rice sowing date (from 2,577.1 kg ha-1 - desiccation at rice sowing to 3,115.30 kg ha-1 - desiccation 30 days before rice sowing). Soybean as an antecedent of summer crop allows better upland rice yield (3,754 kg ha-1) than rice as an antecedent of summer crop (2,635 kg ha-1); fallow/soybean/fallow (4,507 kg ha-1) and millet/soybean/millet (4,765 kg ha-1) rotation at no-tillage system, and incorporated fallow /soybean/ incorporated fallow (4,427 kg ha-1) at conventional tillage system allow the highest rice yield; upland rice yield is similar at no-till (3,194 kg ha-1) and till system (2,878 kg ha-1).

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For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

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Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

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Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

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Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study, the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1±C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%{5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration, except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5±C, the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5±C to close to 0 at about 36±C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575{0.6), harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change, for example, by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure, breeding heat-resistant varieties, and improving the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme climate events.

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Objetivando avaliar efeitos de períodos de infestação inicial na comunidade infestante e na produtividade da beterraba em sistema de semeadura direta e transplantio, conduziu-se um experimento em delineamento de blocos casualizados, esquema fatorial 2 x 13. Métodos de semeadura direta e transplante de mudas foram avaliados dentro de 13 períodos semanais crescentes de infestação. Importância relativa, densidade e matéria seca acumulada pelas plantas daninhas foram analisadas por regressão não-linear, assim como produtividade e estande da cultura de beterraba, que foram submetidos à análise de variância. Amaranthus viridis, Coronopus didymus, Cyperus rotundus, Digitaria nuda, Galinsoga parviflora e Nicandra physaloides foram as plantas daninhas mais importantes, destacando-se C. didymus. O acúmulo de matéria seca das plantas daninhas foi maior na cultura em semeadura direta, embora a densidade de plantas daninhas tenha sido mais alta em sistema de transplantio. A produtividade da beterraba transplantada foi maior que a da semeadura direta no tratamento livre de plantas daninhas. A convivência das plantas daninhas com a cultura pode permanecer por quatro e sete semanas depois da semeadura/transplantio, respectivamente, antes de reduzir a produtividade. A cultura em sistema de semeadura direta foi mais susceptível à interferência das plantas daninhas que a cultura sob sistema de transplantio.

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Os resíduos vegetais das culturas, ao se decomporem, alteram os atributos químicos do solo e, como consequência, influenciam a produtividade das culturas em sucessão. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os atributos químicos do solo e a produtividade das culturas de soja, milho e arroz, cultivadas no verão, em sucessão a culturas de inverno em semeadura direta. O experimento foi realizado em Jaboticabal-SP (48 ° 18 ' 58 '' W e 21 ° 15 ' 22 '' S), em um Latossolo Vermelho eutrófico. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso, no esquema em faixas, com três repetições. Os tratamentos foram constituídos pela combinação de quatro sequências de culturas de verão (monoculturas de milho e soja e rotações soja/milho e arroz/feijão/algodão) com sete culturas de inverno (milho, girassol, nabo forrageiro, milheto, guandu, sorgo e crotalária). Os cultivos iniciaram-se em 2002. Após o manejo das culturas de inverno e antes da semeadura das culturas de verão do ano agrícola 2006/2007, foram coletadas amostras de solo nas camadas de 0-2,5; 2,5-5,0; 5-10; 10-20; e 20-30 cm. Nas amostras de solo, foram determinados: teores de matéria orgânica, pH, teores de P (resina), K, Ca e Mg trocáveis e acidez potencial (H + Al). As sequências de verão rotação soja/milho e milho em monocultura proporcionaram no solo menores teores de matéria orgânica na camada de 0-10 cm e de P do solo na camada de 0-20 cm. Na sequência de verão arroz/feijão/algodão, maiores teores de K foram proporcionados pelas culturas de inverno crotalária e nabo forrageiro, na camada de 0-10 cm, e milheto, na de 0-2,5 cm. Crotalária, milheto, nabo forrageiro e sorgo, cultivados no inverno, proporcionaram maiores teores de matéria orgânica no solo na camada de 0-30 cm. Maiores teores de P no solo foram proporcionados pela crotalária, na camada de 0-2,5 cm, e pelo nabo forrageiro, na de 0-5 cm. Maiores produtividades de soja, como monocultura de verão, foram obtidas após nabo forrageiro e crotalária e, quando em rotação com milho no verão, após nabo forrageiro, crotalária e milheto. Maiores produtividades de milho foram obtidas após nabo forrageiro, milheto e guandu, e menor produtividade de arroz foi obtida após sorgo.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Apple scab, caused by Venturia inaequalis, is a major disease affecting apple production. Breeding programs have developed over 30 releases of scab-resistant cultivars since 1970 with recent ones having much improved quality. Redfree and GoldRush are from a cooperative breeding program involving Purdue, Rutgers, and Illinois universities while Liberty was introduced from the Cornell University breeding program. For these cultivars to gain better acceptance, more information is needed on their cropping capacities and the effect of crop load on fruit quality attributes. Our study was conducted to determine the relationship between increasing crop load on tree growth, fruit size, and fruit quality variables of the three cultivars under Iowa conditions.

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Tillage system and crop rotation have a major long-term effect on soil productivity and soil quality components such as soil carbon and other soil physical, biological, and chemical properties. In addition, both tillage and crop rotation have effects on weed and soil disease control. There is a need for well-defined, longterm tillage and crop rotation studies across the different soils and climate conditions in the state. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term effects of different tillage systems and crop rotations on soil productivity.

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In Spain, large quantities of wine are produced every year (3,339,700 tonnes in 2011) (FAO, 2011) with the consequent waste generation. During the winemaking process, solid residues like grape stalks are generated, as well as grape marc and wine lees as by-products. According to the Council Regulation (EC) 1493/1999 on the common organization of the wine market, by-products coming from the winery industry must be sent to alcohol-distilleries to generate exhausted grape marc and vinasses. With an adequate composting treatment, these wastes can be applied to soils as a source of nutrients and organic matter. A three-year field experiment (2011, 2012 and 2013) was carried out in Ciudad Real (central Spain) to study the effects of wine-distillery waste compost application in a melon crop (Cucumis melo L.). Melon crop has been traditionally cultivated in this area with high inputs of water and fertilizers, but no antecedents of application of winery wastes are known. In a randomized complete block design, four treatments were compared: three compost doses consisted of 6.7 (D1), 13.3 (D2) and 20 t compost ha-1 (D3), and a control treatment without compost addition (D0). The soil was a shallow sandy-loam (Petrocalcic Palexeralfs) with a depth of 0.60 m and a discontinuous petrocalcic horizon between 0.60 and 0.70 m, slightly basic (pH 8.4), poor in organic matter (0.24%), rich in potassium (410 ppm) and with a medium level of phosphorus (22.1 ppm). During each growing period four harvests were carried out and total and marketable yield (fruits weighting <1 kg or visually rotten were not considered), fruit average weight and fruit number per plant were determined. At the end of the crop cycle, four plants per treatment were sampled and the nutrient content (N, P and K) was determined. Soil samplings (0-30 cm depth) were carried before the application of compost and at the end of each growing season and available N and P, as well as exchangeable K content were analyzed. With this information, an integrated analysis was carried out with the aim to evaluate the suitability of this compost as organic amendment.

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Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.