Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Row spacing and planting density effects on the growth and yield of sugarcane. 1. Responses in fumigated and non-fumigated soil.

It has been reported that high-density planting of sugarcane can improve cane and sugar yield through promoting rapid canopy closure and increasing radiation interception earlier in crop growth. It is widely known that the control of adverse soil biota through fumigation (removes soil biological constraints and improves soil health) can improve cane and sugar yield. Whether the responses to high-density planting and improved soil health are additive or interactive has important implications for the sugarcane production system. Field experiments established at Bundaberg and Mackay, Queensland, Australia, involved all combinations of 2-row spacings (0.5 and 1.5 m), two planting densities (27 000 and 81 000 two-eyed setts/ha), and two soil fumigation treatments (fumigated and non-fumigated). The Bundaberg experiment had two cultivars (Q124, Q155), was fully irrigated, and harvested 15 months after planting. The Mackay experiment had one cultivar (Q117), was grown under rainfed conditions, and harvested 10 months after planting. High-density planting (81 000 setts/ha in 0.5-m rows) did not produce any more cane or sugar yield at harvest than low-density planting (27 000 setts/ha in 1.5-m rows) regardless of location, crop duration (15 v. 10 months), water supply (irrigated v. rainfed), or soil health (fumigated v. non-fumigated). Conversely, soil fumigation generally increased cane and sugar yields regardless of site, row spacing, and planting density. In the Bundaberg experiment there was a large fumigation x cultivar x density interaction (P<0.01). Cultivar Q155 responded positively to higher planting density in non-fumigated soil but not in fumigated soil, while Q124 showed a negative response to higher planting density in non-fumigated soil but no response in fumigated soil. In the Mackay experiment, Q117 showed a non-significant trend of increasing yield in response to increasing planting density in non-fumigated soil, similar to the Q155 response in non-fumigated soil at Bundaberg. The similarity in yield across the range of row spacings and planting densities within experiments was largely due to compensation between stalk number and stalk weight, particularly when fumigation was used to address soil health. Further, the different cultivars (Q124 and Q155 at Bundaberg and Q117 at Mackay) exhibited differing physiological responses to the fumigation, row spacing, and planting density treatments. These included the rate of tiller initiation and subsequent loss, changes in stalk weight, and propensity to lodging. These responses suggest that there may be potential for selecting cultivars suited to different planting configurations.

Row spacing and planting density effects on the growth and yield of sugarcane. 3. Responses with different cultivars.

The promotion of controlled traffic (matching wheel and row spacing) in the Australian sugar industry is necessitating a widening of row spacing beyond the standard 1.5 m. As all cultivars grown in the Australian industry have been selected under the standard row spacing there are concerns that at least some cultivars may not be suitable for wider rows. To address this issue, experiments were established in northern and southern Queensland in which cultivars, with different growth characteristics, recommended for each region, were grown under a range of different row configurations. In the northern Queensland experiment at Gordonvale, cultivars Q187((sic)), Q200((sic)), Q201((sic)), and Q218((sic)) were grown in 1.5-m single rows, 1.8-m single rows, 1.8-m dual rows (50 cm between duals), and 2.3-m dual rows (80 cm between duals). In the southern Queensland experiment at Farnsfield, cvv. Q138, Q205((sic)), Q222((sic)) and Q188((sic)) were also grown in 1.5-m single rows, 1.8-m single rows, 1.8-m dual rows (50 cm between duals), while 1.8-m-wide throat planted single row and 2.0-m dual row (80 cm between duals) configurations were also included. There was no difference in yield between the different row configurations at Farnsfield but there was a significant row configuration x cultivar interaction at Gordonvale due to good yields in 1.8-m single and dual rows with Q201((sic)) and poor yields with Q200((sic)) at the same row spacings. There was no significant difference between the two cultivars in 1.5-m single and 2.3-m dual rows. The experiments once again demonstrated the compensatory capacity that exists in sugarcane to manipulate stalk number and individual stalk weight as a means of producing similar yields across a range of row configurations and planting densities. There was evidence of different growth patterns between cultivars in response to different row configurations (viz. propensity to tiller, susceptibility to lodging, ability to compensate between stalk number and stalk weight), suggesting that there may be genetic differences in response to row configuration. It is argued that there is a need to evaluate potential cultivars under a wider range of row configurations than the standard 1.5-m single rows. Cultivars that perform well in row configurations ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 m are essential if the adverse effects of soil compaction are to be managed through the adoption of controlled traffic.

Row spacing and planting density effects on the growth and yield of sugarcane. 2. Strategies for the adoption of controlled traffic.

Controlled traffic (matching wheel and row spacing) is being promoted as a means to manage soil compaction in the Australian sugar industry. However, machinery limitations dictate that wider row spacings than the standard 1.5-m single row will need to be adopted to incorporate controlled traffic and many growers are reluctant to widen row spacing for fear of yield penalties. To address these concerns, contrasting row configuration and planting density combinations were investigated for their effect on cane and sugar yield in large-scale experiments in the Gordonvale, Tully, Ingham, Mackay, and Bingera (near Bundaberg) sugarcane-growing regions of Queensland, Australia. The results showed that sugarcane possesses a capacity to compensate for different row configurations and planting densities through variation in stalk number and individual stalk weight. Row configurations ranging from 1.5-m single rows (the current industry standard) to 1.8-m dual rows (50 cm between duals), 2.1-m dual (80 cm between duals) and triple ( 65 cm between triples) rows, and 2.3-m triple rows (65 cm between triples) produced similar yields. Four rows (50 cm apart) on a 2.1-m configuration (quad rows) produced lower yields largely due to crop lodging, while a 1.8-m single row configuration produced lower yields in the plant crop, probably due to inadequate resource availability (water stress/limited radiation interception). The results suggest that controlled traffic can be adopted in the Australian sugar industry by changing from a 1.5-m single row to 1.8-m dual row configuration without yield penalty. Further, the similar yields obtained with wider row configurations (2 m or greater with multiple rows) in these experiments emphasise the physiological and environmental plasticity that exists in sugarcane. Controlled traffic can be implemented with these wider row configurations (>2 m), although it will be necessary to carry out expensive modifications to the current harvester and haul-out equipment. There were indications from this research that not all cultivars were suited to configurations involving multiple rows. The results suggest that consideration be given to assessing clones with different growth habits under a range of row configurations to find the most suitable plant types for controlled traffic cropping systems.

Effect of timing of a deficit-irrigation allocation on corn evapotranspiration, yield, water use efficiency and dry mass

Water regulations have decreased irrigation water supplies in Nebraska and some other areas of the USA Great Plains. When available water is not enough to meet crop water requirements during the entire growing cycle, it becomes critical to know the proper irrigation timing that would maximize yields and profits. This study evaluated the effect of timing of a deficit-irrigation allocation (150 mm) on crop evapotranspiration (ETc), yield, water use efficiency (WUE = yield/ETc), irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE = yield/irrigation), and dry mass (DM) of corn (Zea mays L.) irrigated with subsurface drip irrigation in the semiarid climate of North Platte, NE. During 2005 and 2006, a total of sixteen irrigation treatments (eight each year) were evaluated, which received different percentages of the water allocation during July, August, and September. During both years, all treatments resulted in no crop stress during the vegetative period and stress during the reproductive stages, which affected ETc, DM, yield, WUE and IWUE. Among treatments, ETc varied by 7.2 and 18.8%; yield by 17 and 33%; WUE by 12 and 22%, and IWUE by 18 and 33% in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Yield and WUE both increased linearly with ETc and with ETc/ETp (ETp = seasonal ETc with no water stress), and WUE increased linearly with yield. The yield response factor (ky) averaged 1.50 over the two seasons. Irrigation timing affected the DM of the plant, grain, and cob, but not that of the stover. It also affected the percent of DM partitioned to the grain (harvest index), which increased linearly with ETc and averaged 56.2% over the two seasons, but did not affect the percent allocated to the cob or stover. Irrigation applied in July had the highest positive coefficient of determination (R2) with yield. This high positive correlation decreased considerably for irrigation applied in August, and became negative for irrigation applied in September. The best positive correlation between the soil water deficit factor (Ks) and yield occurred during weeks 12-14 from crop emergence, during the "milk" and "dough" growth stages. Yield was poorly correlated to stress during weeks 15 and 16, and the correlation became negative after week 17. Dividing the 150 mm allocation about evenly among July, August and September was a good strategy resulting in the highest yields in 2005, but not in 2006. Applying a larger proportion of the allocation in July was a good strategy during both years, and the opposite resulted when applying a large proportion of the allocation in September. The different results obtained between years indicate that flexible irrigation scheduling techniques should be adopted, rather than relying on fixed timing strategies.

Analysis and Modelling of the Effects of Water Stress on Maize Growth and Yield in Dryland Conditions.

It is essential to provide experimental evidence and reliable predictions of the effects of water stress on crop production in the drier, less predictable environments. A field experiment undertaken in southeast Queensland, Australia with three water regimes (fully irrigated, rainfed and irrigated until late canopy expansion followed by rainfed) was used to compare effects of water stress on crop production in two maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars (Pioneer 34N43 and Pioneer 31H50). Water stress affected growth and yield more in Pioneer 34N43 than in Pioneer 31H50. A crop model APSIM-Maize, after having been calibrated for the two cultivars, was used to simulate maize growth and development under water stress. The predictions on leaf area index (LAI) dynamics, biomass growth and grain yield under rain fed and irrigated followed by rain fed treatments was reasonable, indicating that stress indices used by APSIM-Maize produced appropriate adjustments to crop growth and development in response to water stress. This study shows that Pioneer 31H50 is less sensitive to water stress and thus a preferred cultivar in dryland conditions, and that it is feasible to provide sound predictions and risk assessment for crop production in drier, more variable conditions using the APSIM-Maize model.

Pre-cropping with canola decreased Pratylenchus thornei populations, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, and yield of wheat.

Root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) significantly reduces wheat yields in the northern Australian grain region. Canola is thought to have a 'biofumigation' potential to control nematodes; therefore, a field experiment was designed to compare canola with other winter crops or clean-fallow for reducing P. thornei population densities and improving growth of P. thornei-intolerant wheat (cv. Batavia) in the following year. Immediately after harvest of the first-year crops, populations of P. thornei were lowest following various canola cultivars or clean-fallow (1957-5200 P. thornei/kg dry soil) and were highest following susceptible wheat cultivars (31 033-41 294/kg dry soil). Unexpectedly, at planting of the second-year wheat crop, nematode populations were at more uniform lower levels (<5000/kg dry soil), irrespective of the previous season's treatment, and remained that way during the growing season, which was quite dry. Growth and grain yield of the second-year wheat crop were poorest on plots previously planted with canola or left fallow due to poor colonisation with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, with the exception of canola cv. Karoo, which had high AM fungal colonisation and low wheat yields. There were significant regressions between growth and yield parameters of the second-year wheat and levels of AMF following the pre-crop treatments. Thus, canola appears to be a good crop for reducing P. thornei populations, but AM fungal-dependence of subsequent crops should be considered, particularly in the northern Australian grain region.

GRDC Improving crop and farm water use efficiency in Australia

Project Objectives: 1. Improving yield and water use efficiency of the wheat crop, the backbone of the Australia grains industry, by better matching management, variety, soil and climate. The aim is thus increasing kg grain/ha per mm evapotranspiration and kg grain/ha per mm rain. 2. Improving land and water productivity and profit by better arrangement of the components of the cropping system. This involves better allocation of farm resources (land, water, machinery, labour) and identifying strategies that account for trade-offs between profit and risk. The aim is thus improving $/ha per year and mm rain in a risk framework.

Integrating crop improvement technologies for rapid genetic advance

This project developed a novel approach to integrating enhanced gene mapping technologies with crop modelling to enhance the rate of improvement in sorghum yield.

A case study on the use of legume crop rotations in sugarcane

Growing legume fallow crops has proven to be an important factor in reducing the yield decline effect in sugarcane production. Legumes can also provide a direct economic benefit to sugarcane farmers by providing a source of nitrogen. Further, in some instances, income can flow from the sale, of grain or seed. The following case study provides an insight into the changes made by Russell Young, a sugarcane farmer situated in the Rita Island area of the Burdekin district. The case study focuses on the economics of the old farming system versus a new farming system. The old farming system is based on the conventional farming practices previously used by the Young family in 2002 compared to the 2006 farming system which involves a reduction in tillage practices and use of a Soybean rotational crop for seed production. A whole-of-farm was used to assess the impact of the new farming system on farm profitability. A whole-of-farm economic analysis looks at the impact of a change in farming practice across the whole business, rather than focusing on one single component. This case study is specific to an individual grower’s situation and is not representative of all situations. When evaluating a farming system change, it is important to have a detailed plan.

Selenium and its effects on growth, yield and tuber quality in potato

Selenium (Se) has been demonstrated to be an essential trace element for maintenance of animal and human health. Although it has not been confirmed to be an essential micronutrient in higher plants, there is increasing evidence that Se functions as an antioxidant in plants. Selenium has been shown to exert a beneficial effect on crop growth and promotes stress tolerance at low concentrations. However, the specific physiological mechanisms that underlie the positive effects of Se in plants have not been clearly elucidated. The aims of this study were to determine the Se concentration in potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and the effects of Se on the accumulation of carbohydrates, growth and yield in potato plants. An additional aim was to study the impact of Se on the total glycoalkaloid concentration in immature potato tubers. The distribution of Se in different biochemical Se fractions and the effect of storage on the Se concentration were studied in Se-enriched tubers. Furthermore, the effect of Se on raw darkening and translocation of Se from seed tubers to the next tuber generation was investigated. Due to the established anti-ageing properties of Se, it was of interest to study if Se affects physiological age and growth vigour of seed tubers. The Se concentrations in the upper leaves, roots, stolons and tubers of potato increased with increasing Se supplementation. The highest Se concentration was reached in young upper leaves, roots and stolons, indicating that added selenate was efficiently utilized and taken up at an early stage. During the growing period the Se concentration declined in the aerial parts, roots and stolons of potato plants whereas an intensive accumulation took place in immature and mature tubers. Selenium increased carbohydrate accumulation in the young upper leaves and in stolons, roots and tubers at maturity. This could not be explained by increased production of photoassimilates as net photosynthesis did not differ among Se treatments. The Se treated plants produced higher tuber yields than control plants, and at the highest Se concentration (0.3 mg kg-1) lower numbers of larger tubers were harvested. Increased yield of Se treated plants suggested that Se may enhance the allocation of photoassimilates for tuber growth, acting as a strong sink for both Se and for carbohydrates. Similarly as for other plant species, the positive impact of Se on the yield of potato plants could be related to its antioxidative effect in delaying senescence. The highest Se supplementation (0.9 mg kg-1) slightly decreased the glycoalkaloid concentration of immature tubers. However, at this level the Se concentration in tubers was about 20 µg g-1 DW. A 100 g consumption of potato would provide about 500 mg of Se, which exceeds the upper safe intake level of 400 µg per day for human dietary. The low Se applications (0.0035 and 0.1 mg kg-1) diminished and retarded the degree of raw darkening in tubers stored for one and eight months, which can be attributed to the antioxidative properties of Se. The storage for 1 to 12 months did not affect the Se concentrations of tubers. In the Se enriched tubers Se was allocated to the organic Se fraction, indicating that it was incorporated into organic compounds in tubers. Elevated Se concentration in the next-generation tubers produced by the Se enriched seed tubers indicated that Se could be translocated from the seed tubers to the progeny. In the seed tubers stored for 8 months, at high levels, Se had some positive effects on the growth vigour of sprouts, but Se had no consistent effect on the growth vigour of seed tubers of optimal physiological age. These results indicate that Se is a beneficial trace element in potato plants that exerts a positive effect on yield formation and improves the processing and storage quality of table potato tubers. These positive effects of Se are, however, dependent on the Se concentration and the age of the potato plant and tuber.

Stunted cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) fully recovers biomass and yield of seed cotton after delayed root inoculation with spores of an arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus (Glomus mosseae)

In the northern grain and cotton region of Australia, poor crop growth after long periods of fallow, called 'long-fallow' disorder, is caused by a decline of natural arbuscular-mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). When cotton was grown in large pots containing 22 kg of Vertisol from a field recently harvested from cotton in Central Queensland, plants in pasteurised soil were extremely stunted compared with plants in unpasteurised soil. We tested the hypothesis that this extreme stunting was caused by the absence of AMF and examined whether such stunted plants could recover from subsequent treatment with AMF spores and/or P fertiliser. At 42 days after sowing, the healthy cotton growing in unpasteurised soil had 48% of its root-length colonised with AMF, whereas the stunted cotton had none. After inoculation with AMF spores (6 spores/g soil of Glomus mosseae) and/or application of P fertiliser (50 mg P/kg soil) at 45 days after sowing, the stunted plants commenced to improve about 25 days after treatment, and continued until their total dry matter and seed cotton production equalled that of plants growing in unpasteurised soil with natural AMF. In contrast, non-mycorrhizal cotton grown without P fertiliser remained stunted throughout and produced no bolls and only 1% of the biomass of mycorrhizal cotton. Even with the addition of P fertiliser, non-mycorrhizal cotton produced only 64% of the biomass and 58% of the seed cotton (lint + seed) of mycorrhizal cotton plants. These results show that cotton is highly dependent on AMF for P nutrition and growth in Vertisol (even with high rates of P fertiliser), but can recover from complete lack of AMF and consequent stunting during at least the first 45 days of growth when treated with AMF spores and/or P fertiliser. This corroborates field observations in the northern region that cotton may recover from long-fallow disorder caused by low initial levels of AMF propagules in the soil as the AMF colonisation of its roots increases during the growing season.

Undersowing in a northern climate: effects on spring cereal yield and risk of nitrate leaching

Disadvantages of invariable cereal cropping, concern of nutrient leaching and prices of nitrogen (N) fertilizer have all increased during last decades. An undersown crop, which grows together with a main crop and after harvest, could mitigate all those questions. The aim of this study was to develop undersowing in Finnish conditions, so that it suits for spring cereal farming as well as possible and enhances taking care of soil and environment, especially when control of N is concerned. In total, 17 plant species were undersown in spring cereals during the field experiments between 1991-1999 at four sites in South and Central Finland, but after selection, eight of them were studied more thoroughly. Two legumes, one grass species and one mixture of them were included in long-term trials in order to study annually repeated undersowing. Further, simultaneous broadcasting of seeds instead of separate undersowing was studied. Grain yield response and the capacity of the undersown crop to absorb soil N or fix N from atmosphere, and the release of N were of greatest interest. Seeding rates of undersown crops and N fertilization rates during annually repeated undersowing were also studied. Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam., IR) absorbed soil nitrate N (NO3-N) most efficiently in autumn and timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in spring. The capacity of other grass species to absorb N was low, or it was insufficient considering the negative effect on grain yield. Red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and white clover (Trifolium repens L.) suited well in annually repeated undersowing, supplying fixed N for cereals without markedly increased risk of N leaching. Autumn oriented growth rhythm of the studied legumes was optimal for undersowing, whereas the growth rhythm of grasses was less suited but varied between species. A model of adaptive undersowing system was outlined in order to emphasize allocation of measures according needs. After defining the goal of undersowing, many decisions are to be done. When diminishing N leaching is primarily sought, a mixture of IR and timothy is advantageous. Clovers suit for replacing N fertilization, as the positive residual effect is greater than the negative effect caused by competition. A mixture of legume and non legume is a good choice when increased diversity is the main target. Seeding rate is an efficient means for adjusting competition and N effects. Broadcasting with soil covering equipment can be used to establish an undersown crop. In addition, timing and method of cover crop termination have an important role in the outcome. Continuous observing of the system is needed as for instance conditions significantly affect growth of undersown crop and on the other hand N release from crop residues may increase in long run.

Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

The Relationship Between the Stay-Green Trait and Grain Yield in Elite Sorghum Hybrids Grown in a Range of Environments

The stay-green drought adaptation mechanism has been widely promoted as a way of improving grain yield and lodging resistance in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] and as a result has been the subject of many physiological and genetic studies. The relevance of these studies to elite sorghum hybrids is not clear given that they sample a limited number of environments and were conducted using inbred lines or relatively small numbers of experimental F-1 hybrids. In this study we investigated the relationship between stay-green and yield using data from breeding trials that sampled 1668 unique hybrid combinations and 23 environments whose mean yields varied from 2.3 to 10.5 t ha(-1). The strength and direction of the association between stay-green and grain yield varied with both environment and genetic background (male tester). The majority of associations were positive, particularly in environments with yields below 6 t ha(-1). As trial mean yield increased above 6 t ha(-1) there was a trend toward an increased number of negative associations; however, the number and magnitude of the positive associations were larger. Given that post-flowering drought is very commonly experienced by sorghum crops world wide and average yields are 1.2 and 2.5 t ha(-1) for the world and Australia, respectively, our results indicate that selection for stay-green in elite sorghum hybrids may be broadly beneficial for increasing yield in a wide range of environments.