Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.

Criminal profiling

One of the more widely recognized and practiced subspecialities within forensic criminology is that of criminal profiling. It has a long history, as detailed in Turvey (2008a). It also boasts a small library of distinct literature, with different methods and subspecialities all its own. Criminal profiling is a practice that has seen increasing popular and media attention over the past several decades. It has been depicted in popular fiction such as films like Silence of the Lambs (1991) and television programs like Criminal Minds (2005– present). It has also been applied in a number of high profile cases, including the “Washington Snipers” (see Turvey and McGrath, 2005, for an extended discussion of profiling and the media in the D.C. Sniper case). As a result, students of criminology commonly express an interest in studying criminal profiling with a view to becoming profilers themselves.

Criminal profiling : behavioural consistency, the homology assumption and case linkage

Criminal profiling is an investigative tool used around the world to infer the personality and behavioural characteristics of an offender based on their crime. Case linkage, the process of determining discreet connections between crimes of the same offender, is a practice that falls under the general banner of criminal profiling and has been widely criticized. Two theories, behavioural consistency and the homology assumption, are examined and their impact on profiling in general and case linkage specifically is discussed...

Visualization of complex biological systems: An immune response model using OpenGL

In this paper we present an update on our novel visualization technologies based on cellular immune interaction from both large-scale spatial and temporal perspectives. We do so with a primary motive: to present a visually and behaviourally realistic environment to the community of experimental biologists and physicians such that their knowledge and expertise may be more readily integrated into the model creation and calibration process. Visualization aids understanding as we rely on visual perception to make crucial decisions. For example, with our initial model, we can visualize the dynamics of an idealized lymphatic compartment, with antigen presenting cells (APC) and cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) cells. The visualization technology presented here offers the researcher the ability to start, pause, zoom-in, zoom-out and navigate in 3-dimensions through an idealised lymphatic compartment.

Incorporating complex train paths to an analysis of absolute capacity

Railways are an important mode of transportation. They are however large and complex and their construction, management and operation is time consuming and costly. Evidently planning the current and future activities is vital. Part of that planning process is an analysis of capacity. To determine what volume of traffic can be achieved over time, a variety of railway capacity analysis techniques have been created. A generic analytical approach that incorporates more complex train paths however has yet to be provided. This article provides such an approach. This article extends a mathematical model for determining the theoretical capacity of a railway network. The main contribution of this paper is the modelling of more complex train paths whereby each section can be visited many times in the course of a train’s journey. Three variant models are formulated and then demonstrated in a case study. This article’s numerical investigations have successively shown the applicability of the proposed models and how they may be used to gain insights into system performance.

Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

Variation in the complex carbohydrate biosynthesis loci of Acinetobacter baumannii genomes

Extracellular polysaccharides are major immunogenic components of the bacterial cell envelope. However, little is known about their biosynthesis in the genus Acinetobacter, which includes A. baumannii, an important nosocomial pathogen. Whether Acinetobacter sp. produce a capsule or a lipopolysaccharide carrying an O antigen or both is not resolved. To explore these issues, genes involved in the synthesis of complex polysaccharides were located in 10 complete A. baumannii genome sequences, and the function of each of their products was predicted via comparison to enzymes with a known function. The absence of a gene encoding a WaaL ligase, required to link the carbohydrate polymer to the lipid A-core oligosaccharide (lipooligosaccharide) forming lipopolysaccharide, suggests that only a capsule is produced. Nine distinct arrangements of a large capsule biosynthesis locus, designated KL1 to KL9, were found in the genomes. Three forms of a second, smaller variable locus, likely to be required for synthesis of the outer core of the lipid A-core moiety, were designated OCL1 to OCL3 and also annotated. Each K locus includes genes for capsule export as well as genes for synthesis of activated sugar precursors, and for glycosyltransfer, glycan modification and oligosaccharide repeat-unit processing. The K loci all include the export genes at one end and genes for synthesis of common sugar precursors at the other, with a highly variable region that includes the remaining genes in between. Five different capsule loci, KL2, KL6, KL7, KL8 and KL9 were detected in multiply antibiotic resistant isolates belonging to global clone 2, and two other loci, KL1 and KL4, in global clone 1. This indicates that this region is being substituted repeatedly in multiply antibiotic resistant isolates from these clones.

The O-specific polysaccharide structure and gene cluster of serotype O:12 of the Yersinia pseudotuberculosis complex, and the identification of a novel L-quinovose biosynthesis gene

A major virulence factor for Yersinia pseudotuberculosis is lipopolysaccharide, including O-polysaccharide (OPS). Currently, the OPS based serotyping scheme for Y. pseudotuberculosis includes 21 known O-serotypes, with genetic and structural data available for 17 of them. The completion of the OPS structures and genetics of this species will enable the visualization of relationships between O-serotypes and allow for analysis of the evolutionary processes within the species that give rise to new serotypes. Here we present the OPS structure and gene cluster of serotype O:12, thus adding one more to the set of completed serotypes, and show that this serotype is present in both Y. pseudotuberculosis and the newly identified Y. similis species. The O:12 structure is shown to include two rare sugars: 4-C[(R)-1-hydroxyethyl]-3,6-dideoxy-d-xylo-hexose (d-yersiniose) and 6-deoxy-l-glucopyranose (l-quinovose). We have identified a novel putative guanine diphosphate (GDP)-l-fucose 4-epimerase gene and propose a pathway for the synthesis of GDP-l-quinovose, which extends the known GDP-l-fucose pathway.

Use of parametric modelling and climate-based metrics for the efficient design of daylight strategies in buildings with complex geometries

The purpose of this research is to assess daylight performance of buildings with climatic responsive envelopes with complex geometry that integrates shading devices in the façade. To this end two case studies are chosen due to their complex geometries and integrated daylight devices. The effect of different parameters of the daylight devices is analysed through Climate base daylight metrics.

The Complex Politics of Care: Needs and interests, norms and desires

If you want to understand something about a society, and the social contracts that underpin it, then understanding the way it positions women, children, those with corporeal or cognitive differences and other not-quitecitizens is a good place to start. As most now understand, this positioning is not natural; it is part of the high-stakes social, institutional and above all ideological labour of defining the human body, directing human behaviour and determining who will hold agency, authority and power...

Thermal behavior of kaolinite–urea intercalation complex and molecular dynamics simulation for urea molecule orientation

The thermal behavior of kaolinite–urea intercalation complex was investigated by thermogravimetry–differential scanning calorimetry (TG–DSC), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). In addition, the interaction mode of urea molecules intercalated into the kaolinite gallery was studied by means of molecular dynamics simulation. Three main mass losses were observed at 136 °C, in the range of 210–270 °C, and at 500 °C in the TG–DSC curves, which were, respectively, attributed to (1) melting of the surface-adsorbed urea, (2) removal of the intercalated urea, and (3) dehydroxylation of the deintercalated kaolinite. The three DSC endothermic peaks at 218, 250, and 261 °C were related to the successive removals of intercalated urea with three different distribution structures. Based on the angle between the dipole moment vector of urea and the basal surface of kaolinite, the three urea models could be described as follows: (1) Type A, the dipole moment vector is nearly parallel to the basal surface of kaolinite; (2) Type B, the dipole moment vector points to the silica tetrahedron with the angle between it and the basal surface of kaolinite ranging from 20°to 40°; and (3) Type C, the dipole moment vector is nearly perpendicular to the basal surface of kaolinite. The three distribution structures of urea molecules were validated by the results of the molecular dynamics simulation. Furthermore, the thermal behavior of the kaolinite–urea intercalation complex investigated by TG–DSC was also supported by FTIR and XRD analyses.

Cinema Cities, Media Cities: The Contemporary International Studio Complex

This report, written for the Australian Film Commission (now Screen Australia) is the first major study of the development and role of studio complexes in the spread of film production around the world. The report is divided in to five chapters. First, it examines policy-making around studios, including government support for new facilities around the world. Second, it situates the phenomenon of the contemporary studio complex within the international production ecology. Third, it provides examples of the three types of studio complex: production precinct; cinema city; and media city. Fourth, it describes the networks of production that sustain studios. And fifth it explores the place of the studio in the relationship between 'local' and international production.

An efficient DSE using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution

This paper presents an efficient noniterative method for distribution state estimation using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution (CMCGD). In the proposed method, the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the state variables is obtained in one step considering load uncertainties, measurement errors, and load correlations. In this method, first the bus voltages, branch currents, and injection currents are represented by MCGD using direct load flow and a linear transformation. Then, the mean and SD of bus voltages, or other states, are calculated using CMCGD and estimation of variance method. The mean and SD of pseudo measurements, as well as spatial correlations between pseudo measurements, are modeled based on the historical data for different levels of load duration curve. The proposed method can handle load uncertainties without using time-consuming approaches such as Monte Carlo. Simulation results of two case studies, six-bus, and a realistic 747-bus distribution network show the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of speed, accuracy, and quality against the conventional approach.

In the Solanaceae, a hierarchy of bHLHs confer distinct target specificity to the anthocyanin regulatory complex

The anthocyanin biosynthetic pathway is regulated by a transcription factor complex consisting of an R2R3 MYB, a bHLH, and a WD40. Although R2R3 MYBs belonging to the anthocyanin-activating class have been identified in many plants, and their role well elucidated, the subgroups of bHLH implicated in anthocyanin regulation seem to be more complex. It is not clear whether these potential bHLH partners are biologically interchangeable with redundant functions, or even if heterodimers are involved. In this study, AcMYB110, an R2R3 MYB isolated from kiwifruit (Actinidia sp.) showing a strong activation of the anthocyanin pathway in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) was used to examine the function of interacting endogenous bHLH partners. Constitutive expression of AcMYB110 in tobacco leaves revealed different roles for two bHLHs, NtAN1 and NtJAF13. A hierarchical mechanism is shown to control the regulation of transcription factors and consequently of the anthocyanin biosynthetic pathway. Here, a model is proposed for the regulation of the anthocyanin pathway in Solanaceous plants in which AN1 is directly involved in the activation of the biosynthetic genes, whereas JAF13 is involved in the regulation of AN1 transcription.