Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Endogenous retailer preferences in intermediate good markets

We model strategic interaction in a differentiated input market as a game among two suppliers and n retailers. Each one of the upstream firms chooses the specification of the input which it will offer.Then, retailers choose their type from a continuum of possibilities. The decisions made in these two first stages affect the degree of compatibility between each retailer's ideal input specification and that of the inputs offered by the two upstream firms. In a third stage, upstream firms compete setting input prices. Equilibrium may be of the two-vendor policy or of the technological monopoly type.

Influence of UV radiation on chlorophyll, and antioxidant enzymes of wetland plants in different types of constructed wetland

A surface- and vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland were designed to study the response of chlorophyll and antioxidant enzymes to elevated UV radiation in three types of wetland plants (Canna indica, Phragmites austrail, and Typha augustifolia). Results showed that (1) chlorophyll content of C. indica, P. austrail, and T. augustifolia in the constructed wetland was significantly lower where UV radiation was increased by 10 and 20 % above ambient solar level than in treatment with ambient solar UV radiation (p < 0.05). (2) The malondialdehyde (MDA) content, guaiacol peroxidase (POD), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and catalase (CAT) activities of wetland plants increased with elevated UV radiation intensity. (3) The increased rate of MDA, SOD, POD, and CAT activities of C. indica, P. australis, and T. angustifolia by elevated UV radiation of 10 % was higher in vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland than in surface-flow-constructed wetland. The sensitivity of MDA, SOD, POD, and CAT activities of C. indica, P. austrail, and T. augustifolia to the elevated UV radiation was lower in surface-flow-constructed wetland than in the vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland, which was related to a reduction in UV radiation intensity through the dissolved organic carbon and suspended matter in the water. C. indica had the highest SOD and POD activities, which implied it is more sensitive to enhanced UV radiation. Therefore, different wetland plants had different antioxidant enzymes by elevated UV radiation, which were more sensitive in vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland than in surface-flow-constructed wetland.

Self-construals, Symbolic and Hedonic Preferences, and Actual Purchase Behavior

The study explores the influence of the independent and interdependent self-construals on actual purchase behavior and the mediating role of consumer preferences for symbolic and hedonic meanings. Data were collected through a survey of about 1,000 respondents. Results indicate that independent consumers draw on the self/hedonic- and status-symbolic resources of clothing in the construction and expression of their identities. Regarding the interdependent consumers, they show no interest in clothing affiliation and status symbolism. The degree of preference for status-symbolic meaning mediates all effects of the independent and interdependent self-construals on actual purchase behavior; self-expressive/hedonic preferences mediate two of the three effects of the independent self on actual purchase behavior when accounting for suppression effects, whereas the expected mediation of preference for affiliation meaning is not supported.

Exploring farmer preferences for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia vaccination: a case study of Narok District, Kenya

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important disease in most of sub-Saharan Africa. A conjoint analysis and ordered probit regression models were used to measure the preferences of farmers for CBPP vaccine and vaccination attributes. This was with regard to inclusion or not of an indicator in the vaccine, vaccine safety, vaccine stability as well as frequency of vaccination, vaccine administration and the nature of vaccination. The analysis was carried out in 190 households in Narok District of Kenya between October and December 2006 using structured questionnaires, 16 attribute profiles and a five-point Likert scale. The factors affecting attribute valuation were shown through a two-way location interaction model. The study also demonstrated the relative importance (RI) of attributes and the compensation value of attribute levels. The attribute coefficient estimates showed that farmers prefer a vaccine that has an indicator, is 100% safe and is administered by the government (p<0.0001). The preferences for the vaccine attributes were consistent with expectations. Preferences for stability, frequency of vaccination and nature of vaccination differed amongst farmers (p>0.05). While inclusion of an indicator in the vaccine was the most important attribute (RI=43.6%), price was the least important (RI=0.5%). Of the 22 household factors considered, 15 affected attribute valuation. The compensation values for a change from non inclusion to inclusion of an indicator, 95-100% safety, 2h to greater than 2h stability and from compulsory to elective vaccination were positive while those for a change from annual to biannual vaccination and from government to private administration were negative. The study concluded that the farmers in Narok District had preferences for specific vaccine and vaccination attributes. These preferences were conditioned by various household characteristics and disease risk factors. On average the farmers would need to be compensated or persuaded to accept biannual and private vaccination against CBPP. There is need for consideration of farmer preferences for vaccine attribute levels during vaccine formulations and farmer preferences for vaccination attribute levels when designing delivery of vaccines.

Investigating preferences for dynamic electricity tariffs: the effect of environmental and system benefit disclosure

Dynamic electricity pricing can produce efficiency gains in the electricity sector and help achieve energy policy goals such as increasing electric system reliability and supporting renewable energy deployment. Retail electric companies can offer dynamic pricing to residential electricity customers via smart meter-enabled tariffs that proxy the cost to procure electricity on the wholesale market. Current investments in the smart metering necessary to implement dynamic tariffs show policy makers’ resolve for enabling responsive demand and realizing its benefits. However, despite these benefits and the potential bill savings these tariffs can offer, adoption among residential customers remains at low levels. Using a choice experiment approach, this paper seeks to determine whether disclosing the environmental and system benefits of dynamic tariffs to residential customers can increase adoption. Although sampling and design issues preclude wide generalization, we found that our environmentally conscious respondents reduced their required discount to switch to dynamic tariffs around 10% in response to higher awareness of environmental and system benefits. The perception that shifting usage is easy to do also had a significant impact, indicating the potential importance of enabling technology. Perhaps the targeted communication strategy employed by this study is one way to increase adoption and achieve policy goals.

The forms of bioavailability of phosphorus in integrated vertical flow constructed wetland with earthworms and different substrates

A sequential extraction method was utilized to analyze seven forms of P in an integrated vertical-flow constructed wetland (IVFCW) containing earthworms and different substrates. The aluminum-bound P (Al-P) content was found to be lower, and the occluded P (Oc-P) content was higher in the IVFCW. The addition of earthworms into the influent chamber of IVFCW increased the exchange P (Ex-P), iron-bound P (Fe-P), calcium bound P (Ca-P), Oc-P, detritus-bound (De-P) and organic P (Org-P) content in the influent chamber, and also enhanced P content uptake by wetland plants. A significantly positive correlation between P content of above-ground wetland plants and the Ex-P, Fe-P, Oc-P and Org-P content in the rhizosphere was found (P < 0.05), which indicated that the Ex-P, Fe-P, Oc-P and Org-P could be bio-available P. The Ex-P, Fe-P, De-P, Oc-P and Ca-P content of the influent chamber was higher where the substrate contained a mixture of Qing sand and river sand rather than only river sand. Also the IVFCW with earthworms and both Qing sand and river sand had a higher removal efficiency of P, which was related to higher P content uptake by wetland plants and P retained in IVFCW. These findings suggest that addition of earthworms in IVFCW increases the bioavailable P content, resulting in enhanced P content uptake by wetland plants.

Temperament and self-based correlates of cooperative, competitive and individualistic learning preferences

People vary in the extent to which they prefer cooperative, competitive or individualistic achievement tasks. In the present research, we conducted two studies designed to investigate correlates and possible roots of these social interdependence orientations, namely approach and avoidance temperament, general self-efficacy, implicit theories of intelligence, and contingencies of self-worth based in others’ approval, competition, and academic competence. The results indicated that approach temperament, general self-efficacy, and incremental theory were positively, and entity theory was negatively related to cooperative preferences (|r| range from .11 to .41); approach temperament, general self-efficacy, competition contingencies, and academic competence contingencies were positively related to competitive preferences (|r| range from .16 to .46); and avoidance temperament, entity theory, competitive contingencies, and academic competence contingencies were positively related, and incremental theory was negatively related to individualistic preferences (|r| range from .09 to .15). The findings are discussed with regard to the meaning of each of the three social interdependence orientations, cultural differences among the observed relations, and implications for practicioners.

Conformational preferences for some 2-substituted N-methoxy-N-methylacetamides through spectroscopic and theoretical studies

The analysis of the IR carbonyl band of the 2-substituted N-methoxy-N-methylacetamides Y-CH(2)C(O)-N(OMe)Me (Y = F1, OMe 2, OPh 3, Cl 4), supported by B3LYP/6-311++G(3df, 3pd) calculations along with the NBO analysis for 1-4, indicated the existence of cis-gauche conformers i.e. (c) and (g) for 1 and 3, (c(1), c(2)) and (g(1), g(2)) for 2, and (c) and (g(1), g(2)) for 4. In the gas phase, the g conformer population prevails over the c one, for 1 and 3, the (c(1) + c(2)) population prevails over the (g(1) + g(2)) one for 2, and the (g(1) + g(2)) conformer population is more abundant than (c) one for 4. In n-hexane solution, the cis conformer is more abundant for 1-3. The occurrence of Fermi resonance in the nu(CO) region, in n-hexane, precludes the estimative of relative populations of the (c, g(1), g(2)) conformers for 4. The SCI-PCM calculations agree with the solvent effect on the nu(CO) band component relative intensities for 1-3. NBO analysis showed that the n(N) -> pi.(CO), orbital interaction is the main factor which stabilizes the gauche (g, g(1), g(2)) conformers for 1-4 into a larger extent relative to the cis (c, c(1), c(2)) ones. The n(y) -> pi(.)(Co,) sigma(C-Y) -> pi.(CO,) pi(CO) -> sigma(C-Y) and 7co orbital interactions still contribute, but into a minor extent for the stabilization of the gauche conformers relative to the cis ones. The existence of some pyramidalization at the nitrogen atom of the Weinreb amides 1-4 is responsible for the occurrence of Y(delta)-(4)center dot center dot center dot O(delta)-(9) and Y(delta)-(4)center dot center dot center dot N(delta)-(7) short contacts in the gauche (g, g(1), g(2)) conformers, which originates strong repulsive Coulombic interactions, acting in opposition to the large orbital stabilization of the gauche conformer with respect to the cis one. Therefore, a delicate balance of the Coulombic and orbital interactions seems to be responsible for the observed stabilization of the gauche (g, g(1), g(2)) and cis (c, c(1), c(2)) conformers, both in the gas phase and in the solution for 1-4. However, the cis conformer predominance, in non polar solvents, for the 2-substituted N-methoxy-N-methyl acetamides 1-3, bearing in a first raw (fluorine and oxygen) atoms, is in the opposite direction to the gauche conformer preference for the corresponding 2-substituted N,N-dialkyl-acetamides. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A three-dimensional network constructed from the assembly of 1,3-diaminopropane-copper(II) and tetracyanopalladate(II) moieties

The coordination polymer [Cu(Pd(CN)(4))(pn)](n) (pn = 1,3-diaminopropane) has been synthesized and characterized by elemental analysis, infrared spectroscopy and single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The crystal structure showed that three cyano groups of each [Pd(CN)(4)] unit bridge Cu(II) centers leading to the formation of a three-dimensional network. A series of bifurcated hydrogen bonds between the amino groups of the diamine and the nonbridging cyano groups of the cyanometallate result in the organization of suprarnolecular chains and rings along the polymer. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

"I'm still here. Sort of." : Constructed Identities in Paul Auster's City of Glass

Paul Auster’s City of Glass contains a jumble of identities. In fact, the identities are more numerous than the characters, and consequently, characters have several different identities. Some of these identities are obvious constructs, but with others the degree of construction is less evident. Poststructuralist theory, however, puts forward the idea that these seemingly original identities are in fact constructs to the same level as all others. Thus, this essay argues that there are no original identities; identities are constructed by outer factors. This essay discusses three outer factors contributing to the construction of identities, factors commonly discussed in poststructuralist criticism, these three being language, cultural codes and chance.

Materialising bodies : there is nothing more material than a socially constructed body.

Over the last one of two decades, researchers within the physical education (PE) and sport pedagogy research frequently use the concept ‘the material body’. An initial purpose of this article is to explore what a concept of a ‘material body’ might mean. What other bodies are there? Who would dispute the materiality of bodies? I suggest that the use of a concept as ‘the material body’ suggests a hesitation before the radicalism of the linguistic turn in the sense that the concept ‘discourse’ does not include a material dimension. In this way ‘the material body’ relates to an interpretation of ‘the socially (or discursively) constructed body’ as void of matter. A further purpose with the article is to re-inscribe matter in the concept of ‘discourse’. This is done by way of discussing what theorists like Michel Foucault and, in particular, Judith Butler, has to say about the materiality of the body. In their writings, discourse should not be limited to spoken and/or written language. Rather, discourse is understood in terms of actions and events that create meanings—that matters. One conclusion of the article is that it is important to problematise the mundane view of discourse as ‘verbal interchange’ because it reinforces the promise of an objective knowledge that will eventually shed light on the ‘real’ body and the mysteries of sexual difference, what its origins are, what causes it. Another conclusion is that the PE and sport pedagogy research should pay less attention to the body as an object (what it ‘is’), and pay more attention to how the body matters, and e.g. how movements make bodies matter.