Nature's choice? a study of the displacement of incumbents in elections

Como choques econômicos afetam eleições em democracias? Usando dados eleitorais do Congresso dos Estados Unidos, eu testo se choques adversos podem afetar desigualmente partidos incumbentes e oponentes. Esse efeito é identificado, entre vários procedimentos, por uma regressão em descontinuidade. Eu considero possibilidades teóricas para esse efeito, quando cidadãos não conseguem observar perfeitamente se a falta de bens públicos é devido a um choque adverso, ou a consumo privado do político. Quando o choque é observável, não há efeito; enquanto se não fosse, haveria. As evidências empíricas são consistentes com a teoria.

Election over, battle for Brazil rages

Last week I sat down with a Brazilian acquaintance who was shaking his head over the state of national politics. A graduate of a military high school, he'd been getting e-mails from former classmates, many of them now retired army officers, who were irate over the recent presidential elections. "We need to kick these no-good Petistas out of office," one bristled, using the derogatory shorthand for members of the ruling Workers Party, or PT in Portuguese.

Brazil's election: as polarized as can be

What you see above is a graphic representation of something anyone who followed the campaign that led to the re-election of Dilma Rousseff as Brazil’s president on October 26 already knows: the election was the most polarised in the country’s history. Brasil was split down the middle, not only numerically (Dilma got 52 per cent, Aécio Neves 48) and geographically (Dilma won in the less developed north, Aécio in the more prosperous south). The twitterspere, too, was divided into two camps. Not only that; they hardly talked to each other at all.

Brazil’s 2014 presidential elections: the interconnection between election news and stock market behavior

This study researches whether there has been abnormal stock market behaviour in Brazil as a consequence of election news (observed via opinion polls), regarding the last Brazilian presidential election, held in October 2014. Via applying event study methodology, the research on the Ibovespa and Petrobras suggests that events in which Rousseff was gaining in share have been subject to negative abnormal returns, and events where Rousseff was loosing in share have led to positive abnormal returns. Moreover, volatility has been significantly elevated during the election period and volume has been found to have slightly increased.

Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

BIOCHEMICAL VARIABILITY BETWEEN VENOMS FROM DIFFERENT HONEYBEE (APIS-MELLIFERA) RACES

1. The comparison of molecular exclusion cromatography profiles of venoms from sting apparatuses of Apis mellifera ligustica, Apis mellifera adansonii and Africanized honey-bees in Sephadex G-100 revealed both qualitative and quantitative differences.2. The venoms from A.m. ligustica and A.m. adansonii presented, respectively, three and two peaks characteristic of each sub-species, while Africanized honey-bee was characterized by the absence of eight peaks common to the former.3. The polypeptides with M(r) in the range from 100,000 to 7500 da correspond respectively to 62.0%, 66.6% and 68.7% of total proteins from the venon of A.m. ligustica, A.m. adansonii and Africanized honey-bees, while the peptidic fraction with M(r) range from 4100 to 2000 da corresponds to 11.4%, 32.4% and 10.2% of venom protein, respectively.

Identification of new Bremia lactucae races in lettuce in São Paulo state

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Can Eucalyptus invade native forest fragments close to commercial stands?

Some Eucalyptus species are widely used as a plantation crop in tropical and subtropical regions. One reason for this is the diversity of end uses, but the main reason is the high level of wood production obtained from commercial plantings. With the advancement of biotechnology it will be possible to expand the geographical area in which eucalypts can be used as commercial plantation crops, especially in regions with current climatic restrictions. Despite the popularity of eucalypts and their increasing range, questions still exist, in both traditional planting areas and in the new regions: Can eucalypts invade areas of native vegetation, causing damage to natural ecosystems biodiversity?The objective of this study it was to assess whether eucalypts can invade native vegetation fragments in proximity to commercial stands, and what factors promote this invasive growth. Thus, three experiments were established in forest fragments located in three different regions of Brazil. Each experiment was composed of 40 plots (1 m(2) each one), 20 plots located at the border between the forest fragment and eucalypts plantation, and 20 plots in the interior of the forest fragments. In each experimental site, the plots were paired by two soil exposure conditions, 10 plots in natural conditions and 10 plots with soil exposure (no plant and no litter). During the rainy season, 2 g of eucalypts seeds were sown in each plot, including Eucalyptus grandis or a hybrid of E. urophylla x E. grandis, the most common commercial eucalypt species planted in the three region. At 15, 30, 45, 90, 180, 270 and 360 days after sowing, we assessed the number of seedlings of eucalypts and the number of seedlings of native species resulting from natural regeneration. Fifteen days after sowing, the greatest number of eucalypts seedlings (37 m(-2)) was observed in the plots with lower luminosity and exposed soil. Also, for native species, it was observed that exposed soil improved natural germination reaching the highest number of 163 seedlings per square meter. Site and soil exposure were the factors that have the greatest influence on seed germination of both eucalypt and native species. However, 270 days after sowing, eucalypt seedlings were not observed at any of the three experimental sites. The result shows the inability of eucalypts to adapt to condition outside of their natural range. However, native species demonstrated their strong capacity for natural regeneration in forest fragments under the same conditions where eucalypts were seeded. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chaotic diffusion caused by close encounters with several massive asteroids The (4) Vesta case

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Inversion in the temperature coefficient of the optical path length close to the glass transition temperature in tellurite glasses

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Blink reflex: comparison of latency measurements in different human races

Latências do reflexo trigêmino-facial e índices cefalométricos foram analisados em 30 voluntários adultos normais, de 3 diferentes raças, sendo 10 brancos, 10 negros e 10 orientais. Idades variaram de 15 a 59 anos, alturas de 1,6 a 1,8 m e pesos de 60 a 80 kg. Os reflexos trigêmino-faciais foram obtidos por estimulação elétrica unilateral do nervo supra-orbital e captação nos músculos orbicularis oculi, para análise quantitativa de 3 respostas, ipsolateral precoce (R1), ipsolateral tardia (R2i) e contralateral tardia (R2c). Índices cefalométricos foram obtidos multiplicando-se por 100 a razão entre maior diâmetro transverso e maior diâmetro sagital do crânio. As médias dos índices cefalométricos de cada grupo foram compatíveis com as respectivas características raciais. As respostas R1, R2i e R2c não mostraram diferenças de latências estatisticamente significativas entre as 3 diferentes raças analisadas neste estudo.

Isoenzymatic variation in the germplasm of Brazilian races of maize (Zea mays L.)

Existem mais de 200 raças de milho (Zea mays L.), as quais são divididas em três grupos (raças comerciais antigas, raças comerciais recentes e raças indígenas). As raças indígenas, embora não tenham valor comercial, possuem muitas características importantes que podem ser utilizadas em programas de melhoramento de milho. A maior parte do germoplasma brasileiro das raças de milho indígena foi coletada, no mínimo, 40 anos atrás e nada é conhecido sobre a variabilidade presente neste germoplasma. Quinze populações de 4 raças indígenas de milho (Caingang, Entrelaçado, Lenha e Moroti) e 5 cultivares indígenas foram analisados utilizando-se 5 sistemas isoenzimáticos codificados por 14 locos. A análise revelou um baixo nível de variabilidade entre as amostras estudadas. O número médio de alelos/loco foi três, com 64,3% de locos polimórficos e uma heterozigosidade média esperada de 0,352. Por população, a média de número de alelos por loco polimórfico foi 1,6, em média 47,5% dos locos foram polimórficos e a heterozigosidade média foi 0,195. A distância genética média entre as populações foi 0,821 e a proporção da variabilidade genética, que é atribuída ao componente entre populações (Gst), foi 0,156. Os dados sugerem que um efeito de fundador poderia explicar a baixa variabilidade detectada.

Unique Derived Features in Spermiogenesis and Sperm Morphology Supporting a Close Relationship between the Species of Hollandichthys and Rachoviscus (Characiformes: Characidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)