Analysis and risk estimates to workers of Brazilian granitic industries and sandblasters exposed to respirable crystalline silica and natural radionuclides

Occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica and to radiation emitted by natural radionuclides present both in rocks and sands was studied in the Brazilian extractive process and granite product manufacture. Respirable airborne dust samples were collected in working environments, where workers perform different tasks with distinct commercial granites types, and also in places where sandblasters work with sands from different origins. The free crystalline silica contents were determined using X-ray diffraction of the respirable particulate fraction of each sample. Dust samples from granite cutting and sandblasting ambient had the natural radionuclides concentrations measured by gamma spectrometry. Dust concentrations in the workplaces were quite variable, reaching values up to 10 times higher than the respirable particle mass threshold limit value (TLV) set by the American Conference for Governmental Industrial Hygienists of 3 mg m(-3). Also the free crystalline silica concentrations were high. reaching values up to 48 times the TLV of 0.025 mg m(-3). Additionally, our results suggest that the risk of radiation-induced cancer in the granite or marble industries is negligible. However, the combined exposure to dust, gamma radiation, and radon daughter products could result in the enhancement of lung cancer risks associated to sandblasting activities. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biomarkers of extracellular matrix metabolism (MMP-9 and TIMP-1) and risk of stroke, myocardial infarction and cause-specific mortality : cohort study

Objective: Turnover of the extracellular matrix in all solid organs is governed mainly by a balance between the degrading matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs). An altered extracellular matrix metabolism has been implicated in a variety of diseases. We investigated relations of serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 to mortality risk from an etiological perspective. Design: The prospective Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) cohort, followed from 1991–1995 for up to 18.1 years. A random population-based sample of 1,082 71-year-old men, no loss to follow-up. Endpoints were all-cause (n = 628), cardiovascular (n = 230), non-cardiovascular (n = 398) and cancer mortality (n = 178), and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 138) or stroke (n = 163). Results: Serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were associated with risk of all-cause mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.19; and 1.11, 1.02–1.20; respectively). TIMP-1 levels were mainly related to risks of cardiovascular mortality and stroke (HR per standard deviation 1.22, 95% CI 1.09–1.37; and 1.18, 1.04–1.35; respectively). All relations except those of TIMP-1 to stroke risk were attenuated by adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors. Relations in a subsample without cardiovascular disease or cancer were similar to those in the total sample. Conclusion: In this community-based cohort of elderly men, serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were related to mortality risk. An altered extracellular matrix metabolism may be involved in several detrimental pathways, and circulating MMP-9 or TIMP-1 levels may be relevant markers thereof.

Sale of credit portfolio and risk : the case of financial institutions in Brazil

Este estudo analisa se as vendas de carteiras de crédito são utilizadas por instituições financeiras para gestão de risco, de acordo com Stanton(1998) e Murray(2001) ou para captação recursos, como apontado em Cebenoyan e Strahan(2001) e Dionne e Harchaoui(2003). Duas hipóteses foram testadas quanto às vendas de carteira de crédito: 1) implicam em melhor rating na carteira remanescente; ou 2) promovem alavancagem financeira - com piora na carteira remanescente -, controlando para a existência de coobrigação e para quem esses ativos foram transferidos. A amostra inclui informações trimestrais de 145 instituições financeiras do primeiro trimestre de 2001 ao segundo trimestre de 2008. Os resultados oferecem evidências empíricas de que as instituições financeiras utilizam estas vendas para melhora do rating da carteira de crédito remanescente, ou seja, elas transferem, em sua maioria, ativos de baixa qualidade, garantindo bons ratings e melhorando a liquidez. Adicionalmente, seguindo a proposta Dionne e Harchaoui(2003) - que além de testar, evidenciam que exigências regulatórias promovem alavancagem em ativos de alto risco - foi observada a relação entre o Índice de Basiléia e rating da carteira de crédito. As conclusões foram semelhantes às encontradas por Dionne e Harchaoui(2003): quanto mais adequada – maior Índice de Basiléia - uma instituição financeira for, maiores as chances de ela possuir uma carteira de crédito com qualidade ruim.

Essays on regulation and risk

In this thesis, we investigate some aspects of the interplay between economic regulation and the risk of the regulated firm. In the first chapter, the main goal is to understand the implications a mainstream regulatory model (Laffont and Tirole, 1993) have on the systematic risk of the firm. We generalize the model in order to incorporate aggregate risk, and find that the optimal regulatory contract must be severely constrained in order to reproduce real-world systematic risk levels. We also consider the optimal profit-sharing mechanism, with an endogenous sharing rate, to explore the relationship between contract power and beta. We find results compatible with the available evidence that high-powered regimes impose more risk to the firm. In the second chapter, a joint work with Daniel Lima from the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), we start from the observation that regulated firms are subject to some regulatory practices that potentially affect the symmetry of the distribution of their future profits. If these practices are anticipated by investors in the stock market, the pattern of asymmetry in the empirical distribution of stock returns may differ among regulated and non-regulated companies. We review some recently proposed asymmetry measures that are robust to the empirical regularities of return data and use them to investigate whether there are meaningful differences in the distribution of asymmetry between these two groups of companies. In the third and last chapter, three different approaches to the capital asset pricing model of Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) are tested with recent Brazilian data and estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) as a unifying procedure. We find that ex-post stock returns generally exhibit statistically significant coskewness with the market portfolio, and hence are sensitive to squared market returns. However, while the theoretical ground for the preference for skewness is well established and fairly intuitive, we did not find supporting evidence that investors require a premium for supporting this risk factor in Brazil.

Nonparametric tail risk, macroeconomics and stock returns: predictability and risk premia

This paper proposes a new novel to calculate tail risks incorporating risk-neutral information without dependence on options data. Proceeding via a non parametric approach we derive a stochastic discount factor that correctly price a chosen panel of stocks returns. With the assumption that states probabilities are homogeneous we back out the risk neutral distribution and calculate five primitive tail risk measures, all extracted from this risk neutral probability. The final measure is than set as the first principal component of the preliminary measures. Using six Fama-French size and book to market portfolios to calculate our tail risk, we find that it has significant predictive power when forecasting market returns one month ahead, aggregate U.S. consumption and GDP one quarter ahead and also macroeconomic activity indexes. Conditional Fama-Macbeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions reveal that our factor present a positive risk premium when controlling for traditional factors.

Business Plan, financial and risk analysis from the start-up mathrix

Mathrix is an e-learning math website that will be launched in March 2016. This master thesis offered a unique chance to interact with experienced supervisors in venture capitalism and project investment. It could serve as guidelines for entrepreneurs who intend to raise funds. Starting with the company’s business plan, the thesis focuses on estimating the company’s value with its return on investment using three scenarios and taking into consideration the risks evolved.

Asymmetric auctions and risk aversion within independent private valoues

We study tournaments with many ex-ante asymmetric (heterogeneous) contestants as an independent-private-values all-pay auction. The asymmetry is either with respect to the distribution of valuations for the prize or the risk preferences. By characterizing equilibria in tnonotone strategies we show that tournaments \:vith man~y heterogenous contestants are qualitatively distinct. First, with two (or many ex-ante identical) participants, a contestant always exerts some effort with positive probability. In contrast, with many asymmetric participants, one 1night not exert any effort at all, even if there is a positive probability that he has the highest valuation among ali. Second, in tournan1ents with t'wo (o r n1any ex-ante h01nogenous) contestants, equilibrium effort densities are decreasing. This prediction is at odds with experimental evidence that shows the empírica! density might be increasing at high effort levels. V\.lith rnany heterogeneous contestants, however. the increasing bid density is consistent with an equilibrium behavior.

Seroprevalence of and risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii in sheep raised in the Jaboticabal microregion, São Paulo State, Brazil

Seroprevalence of and risk factors for toxoplasmosis in sheep from different properties in the Jaboticabal microregion, São Paulo State, Brazil were determined. Antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii were found in sera of 52.0% of 488 sheep tested by indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT >= 64). T gondii seropositivity in sheep was significantly associated with gender of the sheep, pasturing system, contact with cats, and the use of mineral supplements and the type of feed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geographic and Educational Factors and Risk of the First Peritonitis Episode in Brazilian Peritoneal Dialysis Study (BRAZPD) Patients

Background and objectives Peritonitis remains as the most frequent cause of peritoneal dialysis (PD) failure, impairing patient's outcome. No large multicenter study has addressed socioeconomic, educational, and geographic issues as peritonitis risk factors in countries with a large geographic area and diverse socioeconomic conditions, such as Brazil.Design, setting, participants, & measurements Incident PD patients recruited from 114 dialysis centers and reporting to BRAZPD, a multicenter observational study, from December 2004 through October 2007 were included. Clinical, dialysis-related, demographic, and socioeconomic variables were analyzed. Patients were followed up until their first peritonitis. Cox proportional model was used to determine independent factors associated with peritonitis.Results In a cumulative follow-up of 2032 patients during 22.026 patient-months, 474 (23.3%) presented a first peritonitis episode. In contrast to earlier findings, PD modality, previous hemodialysis, diabetes, gender, age, and family income were not risk predictors. Factors independently associated with increased hazard risk were lower educational level, non-white race, region where patients live, shorter distance from dialysis center, and lower number of patients per center.Conclusions Educational level and geographic factors as well as race and center size are associated with risk for the first peritonitis, independent of socioeconomic status, PD modality, and comorbidities. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 1944-1951, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.11431210

Complications and risk factors in transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsies

CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: A biópsia da próstata não é um procedimento isento de riscos. Existe preocupação com respeito às complicações e quais seriam os melhores antibióticos usados antes do procedimento. O objetivo foi determinar a taxa de complicações e os possíveis fatores de risco para complicação na biópsia da próstata. TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Estudo prospectivo clínico, realizado no Hospital das Clínicas de Botucatu. MÉTODOS: Foram realizadas biópsias em 174 pacientes que apresentavam anormalidade ao exame digital da próstata ou antígeno prostático específico maior que 4 ng/ml ou ambos. Todos os pacientes realizaram enema e antibioticoprofilaxia previamente ao exame. As complicações foram anotadas após o término do procedimento e em consultas posteriores. Algumas condições foram investigadas como possíveis fatores de risco para biópsias de próstata: idade, câncer da próstata, diabetes melito, hipertensão arterial sistêmica, antecedentes de prostatite, uso de ácido acetilsalicílico, volume prostático, número de biópsias e uso de sonda vesical. RESULTADOS: As complicações hemorrágicas foram mais comuns (75,3%) enquanto que as infecciosas ocorreram em 19% dos casos. O tipo mais freqüente foi a hematúria, ocorrendo em 56% dos pacientes. A infecção do trato urinário ocorreu em 16 pacientes (9,2%). Sepse foi observada em três pacientes (1,7%). Não houve óbitos. em 20% dos pacientes não foram observadas complicações após o exame. A presença da sonda vesical foi fator de risco para complicações infecciosas (p < 0,05). O número maior de amostras nas biópsias foi relacionado à hematúria, sangramento retal e complicações infecciosas (p < 0,05). As demais condições investigadas não se relacionaram com complicações pós-biópsia da próstata. CONCLUSÕES: As complicações pós-biópsia da próstata foram em sua maioria autolimitadas. A taxa de complicações graves foi baixa, sendo a biópsia de próstata guiada pelo ultra-som segura e eficaz. A retirada de um maior número de fragmentos na biópsia relaciona-se com hematúria, sangramento retal e complicações infecciosas. A sonda vesical foi um fator de risco para complicações infecciosas.

Venous ulcer: clinical characteristics and risk factors

BackgroundLower limb venous ulceration ranks among the 10 most common medical problems in Western countries and has significant socioeconomic impact. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for unhealed, recurrent, and large ulcers and to characterize patients with active or recently healed venous ulcers.MethodsWe identified 97 patients and assessed 103 ulcerated limbs in 90 patients. All patients underwent clinical examination, arterial and venous system evaluation, ankle-brachial index determination, and ultrasound of the affected limb. Clinical characteristics included age, gender, race, ulcer duration, time since first episode, history of recurrence, localization of ulcer, ulcer area, eczema, ochre dermatitis, lipodermatosclerosis, pain, body mass index, and medical history data. Risk factors were identified by univariate analysis and estimated odds ratios.ResultsWe assessed 90 patients (103 limbs) with active or healed venous leg ulcers, of whom 84.4% were Caucasian and 68.9% were female. Mean age was 56.0 +/- 13.3 years. Ulcers had remained unhealed for < 1 year in 40.7%. Lipodermatosclerosis, lower limb hyperpigmentation, edema, and eczema were seen in 96.7%, 95.6%, 94.4%, and 51.1% of patients, respectively. Pain was a frequent symptom in 74.4%. Body mass index was assessed in 85 patients: 30.6% were slightly, 36.5% moderately, and 7% severely obese. Patient age > 60 years (odds ratio [OR] 4.0), extensive lipodermatosclerosis (OR 8.7), and previous history of ulceration (OR 19.9) were risk factors for unhealed ulcers. Time since first ulcer episode >= 2 years (OR 29.2) and incompetence of venous systems (OR 1.6) were risk factors for recurrence.ConclusionsLongstanding and large ulcers and recurrences are the main problems encountered by venous ulcer patients. Severe lipodermatosclerosis, previous ulcer history, and time since first ulcer episode >= 2 years are significant risk factors.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Chlamydia trachomatis Cervicitis in Pregnant Women at the Genital Tract Infection in Obstetrics Unit Care at Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University - UNESP, Brazil

Objective. To evaluate the prevalence of and risk factors for Chlamydia trachomatis cervicitis in pregnant women seen at the Genital Tract Infection in Obstetrics Unit Care in Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University - UNESP.Materials and Methods. Between June 2006 and February 2008, 101 pregnant women were included in this study. During the gynecologic examination, cervical secretions were collected using cytobrush Plus GT (CooperSurgical Inc) to assess C. trachomatis using polymerase chain reaction. Vaginal flora were examined by Gram stain, and socio-demographic data were extracted from medical records.Results. of the 101 patients, 26 (25.7%) were positive for C. trachomatis. The median age of the infected group was 24 years (range = 13-40 y), and 48.5% of them had abnormal vaginal flora. The presence of chlamydial infection was associated with smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 2.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-7.19), residing in a city with fewer than 100,000 inhabitants (OR = 2.86, 95% CI = 1.03-7.94), presence of condyloma acuminatum (p = .03), and presence of discreet inflammation on Pap smear (p = .02).Conclusions. The prevalence of C. trachomatis is high in pregnant women seen at the Genital Infection Unit Care, UNESP, and is related to many risk factors. Therefore, its screening is extremely important in reducing obstetrical and neonatal complications.

Prevalence and risk factors for urinary incontinence in healthy pregnant Brazilian women

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Prevalence and risk factors for urinary and fecal incontinence in brazilian women

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)