An experimental and modelling study of the capture of CO2 from gas mixtures with different techniques, with focus on multicomponent effects.

In the present work, the deviations in the solubility of CO2, CH4, and N2 at 30 °c in the mixed gases (CO2/CH4) and (CO2/N2) from the pure gas behavior were studied using the dual-mode model over a wide range of equilibrium composition and pressure values in two glassy polymers. The first of which was PI-DAR which is the polyimide formed by the reaction between 4, 6-diaminoresorcinol dihydrochloride (DAR-Cl) and 2, 2’-bis-(3, 4-dicarboxyphenyl) hexafluoropropane dianhydride (6FDA). The other glassy polymer was TR-DAR which is the corresponding thermally rearranged polymer of PI-DAR. Also, mixed gas sorption experiments for the gas mixture (CO2/CH4) in TR-DAR at 30°c took place in order to assess the degree of accuracy of the dual-mode model in predicting the true mixed gas behavior. The experiments were conducted on a pressure decay apparatus coupled with a gas chromatography column. On the other hand, the solubility of CO2 and CH4 in two rubbery polymers at 30⁰c in the mixed gas (CO2/CH4) was modelled using the Lacombe and Sanchez equation of state at various values of equilibrium composition and pressure. These two rubbery polymers were cross-linked poly (ethylene oxide) (XLPEO) and poly (dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS). Moreover, data about the sorption of CO2 and CH4 in liquid methyl dietahnolamine MDEA that was collected from literature65-67 was used to determine the deviations in the sorption behavior in the mixed gas from that in the pure gases. It was observed that the competition effects between the penetrants were prevailing in the glassy polymers while swelling effects were predominant in the rubbery polymers above a certain value of the fugacity of CO2. Also, it was found that the dual-mode model showed a good prediction of the sorption of CH4 in the mixed gas for small pressure values but in general, it failed to predict the actual sorption of the penetrants in the mixed gas.

Moving to Capture Children's Attention : Developing a Methodology for Measuring Visuomotor Attention

Funding: Authors LH and MMW are part of the Healthy Children, Healthy Families Theme of the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) Yorkshire and Humber (www.clahrc-yh.nihr.ac.uk/). Please note, the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR and the Department of Health. At different points in time this programme of research has been supported by a Medical Research Council (MRC; www.mrc.ac.uk) scholarship, an MRC Centenary Early Career Award and a grant from The Waterloo Foundation (TWF reference: 1285/1986; www.waterloofoundation.org.uk/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Mining the Online Social Network Data: Influence, Summarization, and Organization

Online Social Network (OSN) services provided by Internet companies bring people together to chat, share the information, and enjoy the information. Meanwhile, huge amounts of data are generated by those services (they can be regarded as the social media ) every day, every hour, even every minute, and every second. Currently, researchers are interested in analyzing the OSN data, extracting interesting patterns from it, and applying those patterns to real-world applications. However, due to the large-scale property of the OSN data, it is difficult to effectively analyze it. This dissertation focuses on applying data mining and information retrieval techniques to mine two key components in the social media data — users and user-generated contents. Specifically, it aims at addressing three problems related to the social media users and contents: (1) how does one organize the users and the contents? (2) how does one summarize the textual contents so that users do not have to go over every post to capture the general idea? (3) how does one identify the influential users in the social media to benefit other applications, e.g., Marketing Campaign? The contribution of this dissertation is briefly summarized as follows. (1) It provides a comprehensive and versatile data mining framework to analyze the users and user-generated contents from the social media. (2) It designs a hierarchical co-clustering algorithm to organize the users and contents. (3) It proposes multi-document summarization methods to extract core information from the social network contents. (4) It introduces three important dimensions of social influence, and a dynamic influence model for identifying influential users.

Improved Accuracy in Optical Motion Capture Measurements Leads to Increased Sensitivity to Kinematic Changes

Clinical optical motion capture allows us to obtain kinematic and kinetic outcome measures that aid clinicians in diagnosing and treating different pathologies affecting healthy gait. The long term aim for gait centres is for subject-specific analyses that can predict, prevent, or reverse the effects of pathologies through gait retraining. To track the body, anatomical segment coordinate systems are commonly created by applying markers to the surface of the skin over specific, bony anatomy that is manually palpated. The location and placement of these markers is subjective and precision errors of up to 25mm have been reported [1]. Additionally, the selection of which anatomical landmarks to use in segment models can result in large angular differences; for example angular differences in the trunk can range up to 53o for the same motion depending on marker placement [2]. These errors can result in erroneous kinematic outcomes that either diminish or increase the apparent effects of a treatment or pathology compared to healthy data. Our goal was to improve the accuracy and precision of optical motion capture outcome measures. This thesis describes two separate studies. In the first study we aimed to establish an approach that would allow us to independently quantify the error among trunk models. Using this approach we determined if there was a best model to accurately track trunk motion. In the second study we designed a device to improve precision for test, re-test protocols that would also reduce the set-up time for motion capture experiments. Our method to compare a kinematically derived centre of mass velocity to one that was derived kinetically was successful in quantifying error among trunk models. Our findings indicate that models that use lateral shoulder markers as well as limit the translational degrees of freedom of the trunk through shared pelvic markers result in the least amount of error for the tasks we studied. We also successfully reduced intra- and inter-operator anatomical marker placement errors using a marker alignment device. The improved accuracy and precision resulting from the methods established in this thesis may lead to increased sensitivity to changes in kinematics, and ultimately result in more consistent treatment outcomes.

High resolution Thomson Parabola Spectrometer for full spectral capture of multi-species ion beams

We report on the experimental characterisation of laser-driven ion beams using a Thomson Parabola Spectrometer (TPS) equipped with trapezoidally shaped electric plates, proposed by Gwynne et al. [Rev. Sci. Instrum. 85, 033304 (2014)]. While a pair of extended (30 cm long) electric plates was able to produce a significant increase in the separation between neighbouring ion species at high energies, deploying a trapezoidal design circumvented the spectral clipping at the low energy end of the ion spectra. The shape of the electric plate was chosen carefully considering, for the given spectrometer configuration, the range of detectable ion energies and species. Analytical tracing of the ion parabolas matches closely with the experimental data, which suggests a minimal effect of fringe fields on the escaping ions close to the wedged edge of the electrode. The analytical formulae were derived considering the relativistic correction required for the high energy ions to be characterised using such spectrometer.

Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling of Coupled Thermal and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Data-Driven Dynamic Prediction of Interrelated Heat and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Automated Collection of Sign Inventory Information by Integrating Global Positioning System (GPS) with Videologging Data Collection Activities, 1995

Advances in communication, navigation and imaging technologies are expected to fundamentally change methods currently used to collect data. Electronic data interchange strategies will also minimize data handling and automatically update files at the point of capture. This report summarizes the outcome of using a multi-camera platform as a method to collect roadway inventory data. It defines basic system requirements as expressed by users, who applied these techniques and examines how the application of the technology met those needs. A sign inventory case study was used to determine the advantages of creating and maintaining the database and provides the capability to monitor performance criteria for a Safety Management System. The project identified at least 75 percent of the data elements needed for a sign inventory can be gathered by viewing a high resolution image.

Developing a Theory of Pervasive Information Capture, Processing, Visualization and Documentation

Developing a theoretical framework for pervasive information environments is an enormous goal. This paper aims to provide a small step towards such a goal. The following pages report on our initial investigations to devise a framework that will continue to support locative, experiential and evaluative data from ‘user feedback’ in an increasingly pervasive information environment. We loosely attempt to outline this framework by developing a methodology capable of moving from rapid-deployment of software and hardware technologies, towards a goal of realistic immersive experience of pervasive information. We propose various technical solutions and address a range of problems such as; information capture through a novel model of sensing, processing, visualization and cognition.

Integrating a mobile accessible electronic system into dockside monitoring: How can small-scale fisheries data collection programs transition from paper-based to digital data collection?

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Volatility and Correlations from High-Frequency Data

This dissertation contains four essays that all share a common purpose: developing new methodologies to exploit the potential of high-frequency data for the measurement, modeling and forecasting of financial assets volatility and correlations. The first two chapters provide useful tools for univariate applications while the last two chapters develop multivariate methodologies. In chapter 1, we introduce a new class of univariate volatility models named FloGARCH models. FloGARCH models provide a parsimonious joint model for low frequency returns and realized measures, and are sufficiently flexible to capture long memory as well as asymmetries related to leverage effects. We analyze the performances of the models in a realistic numerical study and on the basis of a data set composed of 65 equities. Using more than 10 years of high-frequency transactions, we document significant statistical gains related to the FloGARCH models in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit and forecasting accuracy compared to classical and Realized GARCH models. In chapter 2, using 12 years of high-frequency transactions for 55 U.S. stocks, we argue that combining low-frequency exogenous economic indicators with high-frequency financial data improves the ability of conditionally heteroskedastic models to forecast the volatility of returns, their full multi-step ahead conditional distribution and the multi-period Value-at-Risk. Using a refined version of the Realized LGARCH model allowing for time-varying intercept and implemented with realized kernels, we document that nominal corporate profits and term spreads have strong long-run predictive ability and generate accurate risk measures forecasts over long-horizon. The results are based on several loss functions and tests, including the Model Confidence Set. Chapter 3 is a joint work with David Veredas. We study the class of disentangled realized estimators for the integrated covariance matrix of Brownian semimartingales with finite activity jumps. These estimators separate correlations and volatilities. We analyze different combinations of quantile- and median-based realized volatilities, and four estimators of realized correlations with three synchronization schemes. Their finite sample properties are studied under four data generating processes, in presence, or not, of microstructure noise, and under synchronous and asynchronous trading. The main finding is that the pre-averaged version of disentangled estimators based on Gaussian ranks (for the correlations) and median deviations (for the volatilities) provide a precise, computationally efficient, and easy alternative to measure integrated covariances on the basis of noisy and asynchronous prices. Along these lines, a minimum variance portfolio application shows the superiority of this disentangled realized estimator in terms of numerous performance metrics. Chapter 4 is co-authored with Niels S. Hansen, Asger Lunde and Kasper V. Olesen, all affiliated with CREATES at Aarhus University. We propose to use the Realized Beta GARCH model to exploit the potential of high-frequency data in commodity markets. The model produces high quality forecasts of pairwise correlations between commodities which can be used to construct a composite covariance matrix. We evaluate the quality of this matrix in a portfolio context and compare it to models used in the industry. We demonstrate significant economic gains in a realistic setting including short selling constraints and transaction costs.

Dynamic-Data Driven Real-Time Identification for Electric Power Systems

Power system engineers face a double challenge: to operate electric power systems within narrow stability and security margins, and to maintain high reliability. There is an acute need to better understand the dynamic nature of power systems in order to be prepared for critical situations as they arise. Innovative measurement tools, such as phasor measurement units, can capture not only the slow variation of the voltages and currents but also the underlying oscillations in a power system. Such dynamic data accessibility provides us a strong motivation and a useful tool to explore dynamic-data driven applications in power systems. To fulfill this goal, this dissertation focuses on the following three areas: Developing accurate dynamic load models and updating variable parameters based on the measurement data, applying advanced nonlinear filtering concepts and technologies to real-time identification of power system models, and addressing computational issues by implementing the balanced truncation method. By obtaining more realistic system models, together with timely updated parameters and stochastic influence consideration, we can have an accurate portrait of the ongoing phenomena in an electrical power system. Hence we can further improve state estimation, stability analysis and real-time operation.

Big data: appearance and disappearance

The mainstay of Big Data is prediction in that it allows practitioners, researchers, and policy analysts to predict trends based upon the analysis of large and varied sources of data. These can range from changing social and political opinions, patterns in crimes, and consumer behaviour. Big Data has therefore shifted the criterion of success in science from causal explanations to predictive modelling and simulation. The 19th-century science sought to capture phenomena and seek to show the appearance of it through causal mechanisms while 20th-century science attempted to save the appearance and relinquish causal explanations. Now 21st-century science in the form of Big Data is concerned with the prediction of appearances and nothing more. However, this pulls social science back in the direction of a more rule- or law-governed reality model of science and away from a consideration of the internal nature of rules in relation to various practices. In effect Big Data offers us no more than a world of surface appearance and in doing so it makes disappear any context-specific conceptual sensitivity.

An examination of the techniques used to capture mangrove crabs, Ucides cordatus, in the Mamanguape River estuary, Northeastern Brazil, with implications for management.

The present research, undertaken in a mangrove swamp in northeastern Brazil (Mamanguape River Estuary), examined the factors that led to the overwhelming acceptance of the tangle-netting technique by crab harvesters in detriment to the now illegal tamping technique. Both techniques are the only ones currently used at our study site and in many other areas in Brazil, despite being prohibited by law. Data were collected through direct observations to determine capture efficiency, productivity, daily production, selectivity, and harvesting effort, and through interviews with crab harvesters, focusing on their perceptions of the capture techniques, the conditions of crab stocks and the sales price of a dozen crabs. Our results indicated that the two capture techniques did not significantly differ in terms of their efficiency or productivity, but daily production rates differed significantly, being greater using tangle-netting. The tangle-netting permits a greater harvesting effort (6 hours and 34 min) compared to tamping (4 hours and 19 min). Tangle-netting is also less selective than tamping indicated by the larger number of captured smaller specimens, including females. This results in a lower average sales price for a dozen crabs caught by tangle-netting (US$ 0.95) compared to tamping (US$ 1.02). The greater daily production of crab harvesters using the tangle-netting technique nevertheless increased their net gain, explaining their preference for this method, Given that tangle-netting results in greater harvesting pressure but lower selectivity compared to tamping, it may potentially be less sustainable. All of the crab harvesters interviewed having more than 20 years of experience (n = 34) stated they perceived that stocks of U. cordatus had become reduced over the last 20 years, together with average crab sizes. It is now important to examine the structure of the local U. cordatus population and to assess its fishery to allow evaluating whether the illegal, but prominent tangle-netting and tamping mangrove crab capture techniques are sustainable or not. We further suggest improving the dialogue between decision makers and fishermen, which barely exists to date, to initiate a discussion about possible ways of resolving the current situation of illegality of the fishermen. This will be key to achieving effective sustainable co-management of this important natural mangrove forest resource.