Persistence of UK Real Estate returns: a Markov chain analysis

The persistence of investment performance is a topic of perennial interest to investors. Efficient Markets theory tells us that past performance can not be used to predict future performance yet investors appear to be influenced by the historical performance in making their investment allocation decisions. The problem has been of particular interest to investors in real estate; not least because reported returns from investment in real estate are serially correlated thus implying some persistence in investment performance. This paper applies the established approach of Markov Chain analysis to investigate the relationship between past and present performance of UK real estate over the period 1981 to 1996. The data are analysed by sector, region and size. Furthermore some variations in investment performance classification are reported and the results are shown to be robust.

Markov models of aging: theory and practice

We review and structure some of the mathematical and statistical models that have been developed over the past half century to grapple with theoretical and experimental questions about the stochastic development of aging over the life course. We suggest that the mathematical models are in large part addressing the problem of partitioning the randomness in aging: How does aging vary between individuals, and within an individual over the lifecourse? How much of the variation is inherently related to some qualities of the individual, and how much is entirely random? How much of the randomness is cumulative, and how much is merely short-term flutter? We propose that recent lines of statistical inquiry in survival analysis could usefully grapple with these questions, all the more so if they were more explicitly linked to the relevant mathematical and biological models of aging. To this end, we describe points of contact among the various lines of mathematical and statistical research. We suggest some directions for future work, including the exploration of information-theoretic measures for evaluating components of stochastic models as the basis for analyzing experiments and anchoring theoretical discussions of aging.

Bayesian parameter estimation for latent Markov random fields and social networks

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem, comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant (a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with approximate Bayesian computation (Pritchard et al., 1999). Applications to estimating the parameters of Ising models and exponential random graphs from noisy data are presented. Each algorithm used in the paper targets an approximation to the true posterior due to the use of MCMC to simulate from the latent graphical model, in lieu of being able to do this exactly in general. The supplementary appendix also describes the nature of the resulting approximation.

Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions

Tests for business cycle asymmetries are developed for Markov-switching autoregressive models. The tests of deepness, steepness, and sharpness are Wald statistics, which have standard asymptotics. For the standard two-regime model of expansions and contractions, deepness is shown to imply sharpness (and vice versa), whereas the process is always nonsteep. Two and three-state models of U.S. GNP growth are used to illustrate the approach, along with models of U.S. investment and consumption growth. The robustness of the tests to model misspecification, and the effects of regime-dependent heteroscedasticity, are investigated.

Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate

Although financial theory rests heavily upon the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, value indices of commercial real estate display significant departures from normality. In this paper, we apply and compare the properties of two recently proposed regime switching models for value indices of commercial real estate in the US and the UK, both of which relax the assumption that observations are drawn from a single distribution with constant mean and variance. Statistical tests of the models' specification indicate that the Markov switching model is better able to capture the non-stationary features of the data than the threshold autoregressive model, although both represent superior descriptions of the data than the models that allow for only one state. Our results have several implications for theoretical models and empirical research in finance.

Noisy Monte Carlo: convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution π by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel P such that π is invariant under P. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel P. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace P by an approximation Pˆ. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how ’close’ the chain given by the transition kernel Pˆ is to the chain given by P . We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.

Hidden Markov analysis describes dive patterns in semiaquatic animals

Existing methods of dive analysis, developed for fully aquatic animals, tend to focus on frequency of behaviors rather than transitions between them. They, therefore, do not account for the variability of behavior of semiaquatic animals, and the switching between terrestrial and aquatic environments. This is the first study to use hidden Markov models (HMM) to divide dives of a semiaquatic animal into clusters and thus identify the environmental predictors of transition between behavioral modes. We used 18 existing data sets of the dives of 14 American mink (Neovison vison) fitted with time-depth recorders in lowland England. Using HMM, we identified 3 behavioral states (1, temporal cluster of dives; 2, more loosely aggregated diving within aquatic activity; and 3, terminal dive of a cluster or a single, isolated dive). Based on the higher than expected proportion of dives in State 1, we conclude that mink tend to dive in clusters. We found no relationship between temperature and the proportion of dives in each state or between temperature and the rate of transition between states, meaning that in our study area, mink are apparently not adopting different diving strategies at different temperatures. Transition analysis between states has shown that there is no correlation between ambient temperature and the likelihood of mink switching from one state to another, that is, changing foraging modes. The variables provided good discrimination and grouped into consistent states well, indicating promise for further application of HMM and other state transition analyses in studies of semiaquatic animals.

Decomposition of surface electromyographic signal using Hidden Markov Model

The detection of physiological signals from the motor system (electromyographic signals) is being utilized in the practice clinic to guide the therapist in a more precise and accurate diagnosis of motor disorders. In this context, the process of decomposition of EMG (electromyographic) signals that includes the identification and classification of MUAP (Motor Unit Action Potential) of a EMG signal, is very important to help the therapist in the evaluation of motor disorders. The EMG decomposition is a complex task due to EMG features depend on the electrode type (needle or surface), its placement related to the muscle, the contraction level and the health of the Neuromuscular System. To date, the majority of researches on EMG decomposition utilize EMG signals acquired by needle electrodes, due to their advantages in processing this type of signal. However, relatively few researches have been conducted using surface EMG signals. Thus, this article aims to contribute to the clinical practice by presenting a technique that permit the decomposition of surface EMG signal via the use of Hidden Markov Models. This process is supported by the use of differential evolution and spectral clustering techniques. The developed system presented coherent results in: (1) identification of the number of Motor Units actives in the EMG signal; (2) presentation of the morphological patterns of MUAPs in the EMG signal; (3) identification of the firing sequence of the Motor Units. The model proposed in this work is an advance in the research area of decomposition of surface EMG signals.

The uniqueness of signature problem in the non-Markov setting

We establish a general framework for a class of multidimensional stochastic processes over [0,1] under which with probability one, the signature (the collection of iterated path integrals in the sense of rough paths) is well-defined and determines the sample paths of the process up to reparametrization. In particular, by using the Malliavin calculus we show that our method applies to a class of Gaussian processes including fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/4, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and the Brownian bridge.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Using Normative Markov Decision Processes for Evaluating Electronic Contracts: A Case Study in a Simulated Aerospace Aftermarket

Before signing electronic contracts, a rational agent should estimate the expected utilities of these contracts and calculate the violation risks related to them. In order to perform such pre-signing procedures, this agent has to be capable of computing a policy taking into account the norms and sanctions in the contracts. In relation to this, the contribution of this work is threefold. First, we present the Normative Markov Decision Process, an extension of the Markov Decision Process for explicitly representing norms. In order to illustrate the usage of our framework, we model an example in a simulated aerospace aftermarket. Second, we specify an algorithm for identifying the states of the process which characterize the violation of norms. Finally, we show how to compute policies with our framework and how to calculate the risk of violating the norms in the contracts by adopting a particular policy.

Mudanças nas relações entre participantes da cadeia produtiva de esquadrias de alumínio brasileira

Dissertação apresentada ao Programa de Mestrado em Administração da Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul - USCS