Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Tapping the innovation potential of corporate engagement with stakeholders

Summary This dissertation explores how stakeholder dialogue influences corporate processes, and speculates about the potential of this phenomenon - particularly with actors, like non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other representatives of civil society, which have received growing attention against a backdrop of increasing globalisation and which have often been cast in an adversarial light by firms - as a source of teaming and a spark for innovation in the firm. The study is set within the context of the introduction of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in Europe. Its significance lies in the fact that scientific developments and new technologies are being generated at an unprecedented rate in an era where civil society is becoming more informed, more reflexive, and more active in facilitating or blocking such new developments, which could have the potential to trigger widespread changes in economies, attitudes, and lifestyles, and address global problems like poverty, hunger, climate change, and environmental degradation. In the 1990s, companies using biotechnology to develop and offer novel products began to experience increasing pressure from civil society to disclose information about the risks associated with the use of biotechnology and GMOs, in particular. Although no harmful effects for humans or the environment have been factually demonstrated even to date (2008), this technology remains highly-contested and its introduction in Europe catalysed major companies to invest significant financial and human resources in stakeholder dialogue. A relatively new phenomenon at the time, with little theoretical backing, dialogue was seen to reflect a move towards greater engagement with stakeholders, commonly defined as those "individuals or groups with which. business interacts who have a 'stake', or vested interest in the firm" (Carroll, 1993:22) with whom firms are seen to be inextricably embedded (Andriof & Waddock, 2002). Regarding the organisation of this dissertation, Chapter 1 (Introduction) describes the context of the study, elaborates its significance for academics and business practitioners as an empirical work embedded in a sector at the heart of the debate on corporate social responsibility (CSR). Chapter 2 (Literature Review) traces the roots and evolution of CSR, drawing on Stakeholder Theory, Institutional Theory, Resource Dependence Theory, and Organisational Learning to establish what has already been developed in the literature regarding the stakeholder concept, motivations for engagement with stakeholders, the corporate response to external constituencies, and outcomes for the firm in terms of organisational learning and change. I used this review of the literature to guide my inquiry and to develop the key constructs through which I viewed the empirical data that was gathered. In this respect, concepts related to how the firm views itself (as a victim, follower, leader), how stakeholders are viewed (as a source of pressure and/or threat; as an asset: current and future), corporate responses (in the form of buffering, bridging, boundary redefinition), and types of organisational teaming (single-loop, double-loop, triple-loop) and change (first order, second order, third order) were particularly important in building the key constructs of the conceptual model that emerged from the analysis of the data. Chapter 3 (Methodology) describes the methodology that was used to conduct the study, affirms the appropriateness of the case study method in addressing the research question, and describes the procedures for collecting and analysing the data. Data collection took place in two phases -extending from August 1999 to October 2000, and from May to December 2001, which functioned as `snapshots' in time of the three companies under study. The data was systematically analysed and coded using ATLAS/ti, a qualitative data analysis tool, which enabled me to sort, organise, and reduce the data into a manageable form. Chapter 4 (Data Analysis) contains the three cases that were developed (anonymised as Pioneer, Helvetica, and Viking). Each case is presented in its entirety (constituting a `within case' analysis), followed by a 'cross-case' analysis, backed up by extensive verbatim evidence. Chapter 5 presents the research findings, outlines the study's limitations, describes managerial implications, and offers suggestions for where more research could elaborate the conceptual model developed through this study, as well as suggestions for additional research in areas where managerial implications were outlined. References and Appendices are included at the end. This dissertation results in the construction and description of a conceptual model, grounded in the empirical data and tied to existing literature, which portrays a set of elements and relationships deemed important for understanding the impact of stakeholder engagement for firms in terms of organisational learning and change. This model suggests that corporate perceptions about the nature of stakeholder influence the perceived value of stakeholder contributions. When stakeholders are primarily viewed as a source of pressure or threat, firms tend to adopt a reactive/defensive posture in an effort to manage stakeholders and protect the firm from sources of outside pressure -behaviour consistent with Resource Dependence Theory, which suggests that firms try to get control over extemal threats by focussing on the relevant stakeholders on whom they depend for critical resources, and try to reverse the control potentially exerted by extemal constituencies by trying to influence and manipulate these valuable stakeholders. In situations where stakeholders are viewed as a current strategic asset, firms tend to adopt a proactive/offensive posture in an effort to tap stakeholder contributions and connect the organisation to its environment - behaviour consistent with Institutional Theory, which suggests that firms try to ensure the continuing license to operate by internalising external expectations. In instances where stakeholders are viewed as a source of future value, firms tend to adopt an interactive/innovative posture in an effort to reduce or widen the embedded system and bring stakeholders into systems of innovation and feedback -behaviour consistent with the literature on Organisational Learning, which suggests that firms can learn how to optimize their performance as they develop systems and structures that are more adaptable and responsive to change The conceptual model moreover suggests that the perceived value of stakeholder contribution drives corporate aims for engagement, which can be usefully categorised as dialogue intentions spanning a continuum running from low-level to high-level to very-high level. This study suggests that activities aimed at disarming critical stakeholders (`manipulation') providing guidance and correcting misinformation (`education'), being transparent about corporate activities and policies (`information'), alleviating stakeholder concerns (`placation'), and accessing stakeholder opinion ('consultation') represent low-level dialogue intentions and are experienced by stakeholders as asymmetrical, persuasive, compliance-gaining activities that are not in line with `true' dialogue. This study also finds evidence that activities aimed at redistributing power ('partnership'), involving stakeholders in internal corporate processes (`participation'), and demonstrating corporate responsibility (`stewardship') reflect high-level dialogue intentions. This study additionally finds evidence that building and sustaining high-quality, trusted relationships which can meaningfully influence organisational policies incline a firm towards the type of interactive, proactive processes that underpin the development of sustainable corporate strategies. Dialogue intentions are related to type of corporate response: low-level intentions can lead to buffering strategies; high-level intentions can underpin bridging strategies; very high-level intentions can incline a firm towards boundary redefinition. The nature of corporate response (which encapsulates a firm's posture towards stakeholders, demonstrated by the level of dialogue intention and the firm's strategy for dealing with stakeholders) favours the type of learning and change experienced by the organisation. This study indicates that buffering strategies, where the firm attempts to protect itself against external influences and cant' out its existing strategy, typically lead to single-loop learning, whereby the firm teams how to perform better within its existing paradigm and at most, improves the performance of the established system - an outcome associated with first-order change. Bridging responses, where the firm adapts organisational activities to meet external expectations, typically leads a firm to acquire new behavioural capacities characteristic of double-loop learning, whereby insights and understanding are uncovered that are fundamentally different from existing knowledge and where stakeholders are brought into problem-solving conversations that enable them to influence corporate decision-making to address shortcomings in the system - an outcome associated with second-order change. Boundary redefinition suggests that the firm engages in triple-loop learning, where the firm changes relations with stakeholders in profound ways, considers problems from a whole-system perspective, examining the deep structures that sustain the system, producing innovation to address chronic problems and develop new opportunities - an outcome associated with third-order change. This study supports earlier theoretical and empirical studies {e.g. Weick's (1979, 1985) work on self-enactment; Maitlis & Lawrence's (2007) and Maitlis' (2005) work and Weick et al's (2005) work on sensegiving and sensemaking in organisations; Brickson's (2005, 2007) and Scott & Lane's (2000) work on organisational identity orientation}, which indicate that corporate self-perception is a key underlying factor driving the dynamics of organisational teaming and change. Such theorizing has important implications for managerial practice; namely, that a company which perceives itself as a 'victim' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of negative influence, and would therefore be potentially unable to benefit from the positive influence of engagement. Such a selfperception can blind the firm from seeing stakeholders in a more positive, contributing light, which suggests that such firms may not be inclined to embrace external sources of innovation and teaming, as they are focussed on protecting the firm against disturbing environmental influences (through buffering), and remain more likely to perform better within an existing paradigm (single-loop teaming). By contrast, a company that perceives itself as a 'leader' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of positive influence. On the downside, such a firm might have difficulty distinguishing when stakeholder contributions are less pertinent as it is deliberately more open to elements in operating environment (including stakeholders) as potential sources of learning and change, as the firm is oriented towards creating space for fundamental change (through boundary redefinition), opening issues to entirely new ways of thinking and addressing issues from whole-system perspective. A significant implication of this study is that potentially only those companies who see themselves as a leader are ultimately able to tap the innovation potential of stakeholder dialogue.

Value Processingin Organizations - Individual Perceptions in Three Case Companies

Values and value processes are said to be needed in every organization nowadays, as the world is changing and companies have to have something to "keep it together". Organizational values, which are approvedand used by the personnel, could be the key. Every organization has values. But what is the real value of values? The greatest and most crucial challenge is the feasibility of the value process. The main point in this thesis is tostudy how organizational members at different hierarchical levels perceive values and value processes in their organizations. This includes themes such as how values are disseminated, the targets of value processing, factors that affect the process, problems that occur during the value implementation and improvements that could be made when organizational values are implemented. These subjects are studied from the perspective of organizational members (both managers and employees); individuals in the organizations. The aim is to get the insider-perspective on value processing, from multiple hierarchical levels. In this research I study three different organizations (forest industry, bank and retail cooperative) and their value processes. The data is gathered from companies interviewing personnel in the head office and at the local level. The individuals areseen as members of organizations, and the cultural aspect is topical throughout the whole study. Values and cultures are seen as the 'actuality of reality' of organizations, interpreted by organizational members. The three case companies were chosen because they represented different lines of business and they all implemented value processing differently. Sincethe emphasis in this study is at the local level, the similar size of the local units was also an important factor. Values are in 'fashion' -but what does the fashion tell us about the real corporate practices? In annual reports companies emphasize the importance and power of official values. But what is the real 'point' of values? Values are publicly respected and advertised, but still it seems that the words do not meet the deeds. There is a clear conflict between theoretical, official and substantive organizational values: in the value processing from words to real action. This contradiction in value processing is studied through individual perceptions in this study. I study the kinds of perceptions organizationalmembers have when values are processed from the head office to the local level: the official value process is studied from the individual's perspective. Value management has been studied more during the 1990's. The emphasis has usually been on managers: how they consider the values in organizations and what effects it has on the management. Recent literature has emphasized values as tools for improving company performance. The value implementation as a process has been studied through 'good' and 'bad' examples, as if one successful value process could be copied to all organizations. Each company is different with different cultures and personnel, so no all-powerful way of processing values exists. In this study, the organizational members' perceptions at different hierarchical levels are emphasized. Still, managers are also interviewed; this is done since managerial roles in value dissemination are crucial. Organizational values cannot be well disseminated without management; this has been proved in several earlier studies (e.g. Kunda 1992, Martin 1992, Parker 2000). Recent literature has not sufficiently emphasized the individual's (organizational member's) role in value processing. Organizations consist of differentindividuals with personal values, at all hierarchical levels. The aim in this study is to let the individual take the floor. Very often the value process is described starting from the value definition and ending at dissemination, and the real results are left without attention. I wish to contribute to this area. Values are published officially in annual reports etc. as a 'goal' just like profits. Still, the results/implementationof value processing is rarely followed, at least in official reports. This is a very interesting point: why do companies espouse values, if there is no real control or feedback after the processing? In this study, the personnel in three different companies is asked to give an answer. In the empirical findings, there are several results which bring new aspects to the research area of organizational values. The targets of value processing, factors effecting value processing, the management's roles and the problems in value implementation are presented through the individual's perspective. The individual's perceptions in value processing are a recurring theme throughout the whole study. A comparison between the three companies with diverse value processes makes the research complete

Generating highly balanced sudoku problems as hard problems

Sudoku problems are some of the most known and enjoyed pastimes, with a never diminishing popularity, but, for the last few years those problems have gone from an entertainment to an interesting research area, a twofold interesting area, in fact. On the one side Sudoku problems, being a variant of Gerechte Designs and Latin Squares, are being actively used for experimental design, as in [8, 44, 39, 9]. On the other hand, Sudoku problems, as simple as they seem, are really hard structured combinatorial search problems, and thanks to their characteristics and behavior, they can be used as benchmark problems for refining and testing solving algorithms and approaches. Also, thanks to their high inner structure, their study can contribute more than studies of random problems to our goal of solving real-world problems and applications and understanding problem characteristics that make them hard to solve. In this work we use two techniques for solving and modeling Sudoku problems, namely, Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) and Satisfiability Problem (SAT) approaches. To this effect we define the Generalized Sudoku Problem (GSP), where regions can be of rectangular shape, problems can be of any order, and solution existence is not guaranteed. With respect to the worst-case complexity, we prove that GSP with block regions of m rows and n columns with m = n is NP-complete. For studying the empirical hardness of GSP, we define a series of instance generators, that differ in the balancing level they guarantee between the constraints of the problem, by finely controlling how the holes are distributed in the cells of the GSP. Experimentally, we show that the more balanced are the constraints, the higher the complexity of solving the GSP instances, and that GSP is harder than the Quasigroup Completion Problem (QCP), a problem generalized by GSP. Finally, we provide a study of the correlation between backbone variables – variables with the same value in all the solutions of an instance– and hardness of GSP.

Beyond Value-at-Risk : GlueVaR Distortion Risk Measures

We propose a new family of risk measures, called GlueVaR, within the class of distortion risk measures. Analytical closed-form expressions are shown for the most frequently used distribution functions in financial and insurance applications. The relationship between Glue-VaR, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) is explained. Tail-subadditivity is investigated and it is shown that some GlueVaR risk measures satisfy this property. An interpretation in terms of risk attitudes is provided and a discussion is given on the applicability in non-financial problems such as health, safety, environmental or catastrophic risk management

Customer driven business model – connecting customer value to firm resources in ICT value networks

The objective of this thesis is to provide a business model framework that connects customer value to firm resources and explains the change logic of the business model. Strategic supply management and especially dynamic value network management as its scope, the dissertation is based on basic economic theories, transaction cost economics and the resource-based view. The main research question is how the changing customer values should be taken into account when planning business in a networked environment. The main question is divided into questions that form the basic research problems for the separate case studies presented in the five Publications. This research adopts the case study strategy, and the constructive research approach within it. The material consists of data from several Delphi panels and expert workshops, software pilot documents, company financial statements and information on investor relations on the companies’ web sites. The cases used in this study are a mobile multi-player game value network, smart phone and “Skype mobile” services, the business models of AOL, eBay, Google, Amazon and a telecom operator, a virtual city portal business system and a multi-play offering. The main contribution of this dissertation is bridging the gap between firm resources and customer value. This has been done by theorizing the business model concept and connecting it to both the resource-based view and customer value. This thesis contributes to the resource-based view, which deals with customer value and firm resources needed to deliver the value but has a gap in explaining how the customer value changes should be connected to the changes in key resources. This dissertation also provides tools and processes for analyzing the customer value preferences of ICT services, constructing and analyzing business models and business concept innovation and conducting resource analysis.

Duration of untreated psychosis: Impact of the definition of treatment onset on its predictive value over three years of treatment.

BACKGROUND: While reduction of DUP (Duration of Untreated Psychosis) is a key goal in early intervention strategies, the predictive value of DUP on outcome has been questioned. We planned this study in order to explore the impact of three different definition of "treatment initiation" on the predictive value of DUP on outcome in an early psychosis sample. METHODS: 221 early psychosis patients aged 18-35 were followed-up prospectively over 36 months. DUP was measured using three definitions for treatment onset: Initiation of antipsychotic medication (DUP1); engagement in a specialized programme (DUP2) and combination of engagement in a specialized programme and adherence to medication (DUP3). RESULTS: 10% of patients never reached criteria for DUP3 and therefore were never adequately treated over the 36-month period of care. While DUP1 and DUP2 had a limited predictive value on outcome, DUP3, based on a more restrictive definition for treatment onset, was a better predictor of positive and negative symptoms, as well as functional outcome at 12, 24 and 36 months. Globally, DUP3 explained 2 to 5 times more of the variance than DUP1 and DUP2, with effect sizes falling in the medium range according to Cohen. CONCLUSIONS: The limited predictive value of DUP on outcome in previous studies may be linked to problems of definitions that do not take adherence to treatment into account. While they need replication, our results suggest effort to reduce DUP should continue and aim both at early detection and development of engagement strategies.

The Pursuit of Efficient Copyright Licensing : How Some Rights Reserved Attempts to Solve the Problems of All Rights Reserved

This dissertation analyses the growing pool of copyrighted works, which are offered to the public using Creative Commons licensing. The study consist of analysis of the novel licensing system, the licensors, and the changes of the "all rights reserved" —paradigm of copyright law. Copyright law reserves all rights to the creator until seventy years have passed since her demise. Many claim that this endangers communal interests. Quite often the creators are willing to release some rights. This, however, is very difficult to do and needs help of specialized lawyers. The study finds that the innovative Creative Commons licensing scheme is well suited for low value - high volume licensing. It helps to reduce transaction costs on several le¬vels. However, CC licensing is not a "silver bullet". Privacy, moral rights, the problems of license interpretation and license compatibility with other open licenses and collecting societies remain unsolved. The study consists of seven chapters. The first chapter introduces the research topic and research questions. The second and third chapters inspect the Creative Commons licensing scheme's technical, economic and legal aspects. The fourth and fifth chapters examine the incentives of the licensors who use open licenses and describe certain open business models. The sixth chapter studies the role of collecting societies and whether two institutions, Creative Commons and collecting societies can coexist. The final chapter summarizes the findings. The dissertation contributes to the existing literature in several ways. There is a wide range of prior research on open source licensing. However, there is an urgent need for an extensive study of the Creative Commons licensing and its actual and potential impact on the creative ecosystem.

Sorption kinetics and intrapaticulate diffusivity of As(III) bioremediation from aqueous solution, using modified and unmodified coconut fiber

The pollution and toxicity problems posed by arsenic in the environment have long been established. Hence, the removal and recovery remedies have been sought, bearing in mind the efficiency, cost effectiveness and environmental friendliness of the methods employed. The sorption kinetics and intraparticulate diffusivity of As (III) bioremediation from aqueous solution using modified and unmodified coconut fiber was investigated. The amount adsorbed increased as time increased, reaching equilibrium at about 60 minutes. The kinetic studies showed that the sorption rates could be described by both pseudo-first order and pseudo-second order process with the later showing a better fit with a value of rate constant of 1.16 x 10-4 min-1 for the three adsorbent types. The mechanism of sorption was found to be particle diffusion controlled. The diffusion and boundary layer effects were also investigation. Therefore, the results show that coconut fiber, both modified and unmodified is an efficient sorbent for the removal of As (III) from industrial effluents with particle diffusion as the predominant mechanism.

Smart homes as service platforms. Research report of ÄLYKOP sub-project “Competitive advantage from customer value”

In this report, we summarize results of our part of the ÄLYKOP-project on customer value creation in the intersection of the health care, ICT, forest and energy industries. The research directs to describe how industry transformation and convergence create new possibilities, business opportunities and even new industries.The report consists of findings which are presented former in academic publications. The publication discusses on customer value, service provision and resource basis of the novel concepts through multiple theorethical frameworks. The report is divided into three maim sections which are theoretical background, discussion on health care industry and evaluations regarding novel smart home concepts. Transaction cost economics and Resource- Based view on the firm provides the theoretical basis to analyze the prescribed phenomena. The health care industry analysis describes the most important changes in the demand conditions of health care services, and explores the features that are likely to open new business opportunities for a solution provider. The third part of the report on the smart home business provides illustrations few potential concepts that can be considered to provide solutions to economical problems which arise from aging of population. The results provide several recommendations for the smart home platform developers in public and private sectors. By the analysis, public organizations dominate service provision and private markets are emergent state at present. We argue that public-private partnerships are nececssary for creating key suppliers. Indeed, paying attion on appropriate regulation, service specifications and technology standards would foster diffusion of new services. The dynamics of the service provision networks is driven by need for new capabiltities which are required for adapting business concepts to new competitive situation. Finally, the smart home framework revealed links between conventionally distant business areas such as health care and energy distribution. The platform integrates functionalities different for purposes which however apply same resource basis.

Value added logistics in supply and demand chain : COSTFIX : New operation model for maintenance material logistics in paper industry

This research report illustrates and examines new operation models for decreasing fixed costs and transforming them into variable costs in the field of paper industry. The report illustrates two cases – a new operation model for material logistics in maintenance and an examination of forklift truck fleet outsourcing solutions. Conventional material logistics in maintenance operation is illustrated and some problems related to conventional operation are identified. A new operation model that solves some of these problems is presented including descriptions of procurement and service contracts and sources of added value. Forklift truck fleet outsourcing solutions are examined by illustrating the responsibilities of a host company and a service provider both before and after outsourcing. The customer buys outsourcing services in order to improve its investment productivity. The mechanism of how these services affect the customer company’s investment productivity is illustrated.

Be-Fe coupled method for the analysis of 3D elastodynamic problems in the time domain

By coupling the Boundary Element Method (BEM) and the Finite Element Method (FEM) an algorithm that combines the advantages of both numerical processes is developed. The main aim of the work concerns the time domain analysis of general three-dimensional wave propagation problems in elastic media. In addition, mathematical and numerical aspects of the related BE-, FE- and BE/FE-formulations are discussed. The coupling algorithm allows investigations of elastodynamic problems with a BE- and a FE-subdomain. In order to observe the performance of the coupling algorithm two problems are solved and their results compared to other numerical solutions.

An alternative finite element formulation for determination of streamlines in two-dimensional problems

It is well known that the numerical solutions of incompressible viscous flows are of great importance in Fluid Dynamics. The graphics output capabilities of their computational codes have revolutionized the communication of ideas to the non-specialist public. In general those codes include, in their hydrodynamic features, the visualization of flow streamlines - essentially a form of contour plot showing the line patterns of the flow - and the magnitudes and orientations of their velocity vectors. However, the standard finite element formulation to compute streamlines suffers from the disadvantage of requiring the determination of boundary integrals, leading to cumbersome implementations at the construction of the finite element code. In this article, we introduce an efficient way - via an alternative variational formulation - to determine the streamlines for fluid flows, which does not need the computation of contour integrals. In order to illustrate the good performance of the alternative formulation proposed, we capture the streamlines of three viscous models: Stokes, Navier-Stokes and Viscoelastic flows.

Inverse convection problem of simultaneous estimation of two boundary heat fluxes in parallel plate channels

This paper deals with the use of the conjugate gradient method of function estimation for the simultaneous identification of two unknown boundary heat fluxes in parallel plate channels. The fluid flow is assumed to be laminar and hydrodynamically developed. Temperature measurements taken inside the channel are used in the inverse analysis. The accuracy of the present solution approach is examined by using simulated measurements containing random errors, for strict cases involving functional forms with discontinuities and sharp-corners for the unknown functions. Three different types of inverse problems are addressed in the paper, involving the estimation of: (i) Spatially dependent heat fluxes; (ii) Time-dependent heat fluxes; and (iii) Time and spatially dependent heat fluxes.

An Hp-Adaptive Hierarchical Formulation for the Boundary Element Method Applied to Elasticity in Two Dimensions

This paper presents an HP-Adaptive Procedure with Hierarchical formulation for the Boundary Element Method in 2-D Elasticity problems. Firstly, H, P and HP formulations are defined. Then, the hierarchical concept, which allows a substantial reduction in the dimension of equation system, is introduced. The error estimator used is based on the residual computation over each node inside an element. Finally, the HP strategy is defined and applied to two examples.