Near and distant connection of atmospheric systems to ocean temperature change in the coastal California Current region

In studying hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere interactions, it is useful to focus on specific subsystem processes and energy exchanges (forcing). Since subsystem scales range over ten orders of magnitude, it may be difficult to focus research on scales that will yield useful results in terms of establishing causal and predictive connections between more easily and less easily observed subsystems. In an effort to find pertinent scales, we have begun empirical investigations into relationships between atmospheric, oceanic, and biological systems having spatial scales exceeding 10^3 kilometers and temporal scales of six months or more.

Modeling the effect of snow on seasonal runoff within the Truckee River drainage basin

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We estimate monthly runoff for a 2-dimensional solution domain containing those areas tributary to Pyramid Lake, Nevada (the Truckee River drainage basin) at a 1-kilometer grid cell spacing. ... To calculate the effect of snow on the hydrologic system, we perform two experiments. In the first we assume that all precipitation falls as rain; in the second we assume that some precipitation falls as snow, thus available water is a combination of rain and snowmelt. We find that considering the effect of snow results in a more accurate representation of mean monthly flow rates, in particular the peak flow during the melt season in the Sierra Nevada. These preliminary results indicate that a relatively simple snow model can improve the representation of Truckee River basin hydrology, significantly reducing errors in modeled seasonal runoff.

Climatological aspects of the large-scale hydrologic cycle in the United States

We describe a 2.5-degree gridpoint atmospheric hydrology/climatology of precipitable water, precipitation, atmospheric moisture convergence, and a residual evaporation or evapotranspiration for the coterminous United States. We also describe a large-scale surface hydrology/climatology of a residual soil moisture, streamflow divergence, or runoff, as well as precipitation and evaporation. Annual and seasonal means and interrelationships among various components of the hydrologic cycles are discussed.

Is the California drought over?

For the 6-year period 1987 through 1992, most of California suffered the worst or near-worst drought in a recorded history of about 140 years. Based on tree ring reconstructions, it may have been the worst in more than 400 years. The purpose of this paper is to review briefly the recent drought, then talk about the water supply situation this year, with some discussion of why the California drought is over hydrologically for most people; but for some, water supply problems continue.

Long-term and seasonal patterns in coastal temperature and salinity along the North American west coast

Numerous integrated time series have been assembled that suggest global temperature has been increasing steadily over the last century. ... However, superimposed on the long-term warming trends of these series are decadal-scale fluctuations, periods of slightly increasing and even decreasing temperature followed by rapid increases in temperature. ... In this pilot study, data for 1931-1990 from eight [western North America] coastal stations are examined to test the utility of a state-space statistical model (developed by Dr. Roy Mendelssohn, PFEG) in separating and describing seasonal patterns and long-term trends.

The activity pattern of Tegula funebralis

The activity pattern of the black turban snail, Tegula funebralis (A. Adams, 1854) at Pacific Grove, California, is the subject of this article. Field studies were carried out to follow the locomotory and feeding activities of individuals of T. funebralis, to determine how much of each animal's time was spent in each of these activities, and when and under what environmental conditions they occurred.

Introduction

Nearly 100 participants attended the eleventh annual PACLIM workshop at the Asilomar Conference Center in Pacific Grove, California, on April 19-22, 1994. A one-day theme session of ten 45-minute talks was followed by sessions of 20-minute presentations. In addition, 19 presenters gave 1- to 2-minute introductions to their posters, which were displayed throughout the meeting.

Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.

Multivariate climate reconstruction for the last 14,000 years in southernmost South America

Comparison between past changes in pollen assemblages and stable isotope ratios (deuterium and carbon) analyzed in the same peat core from Tierra del Fuego at latitude 55°S permitted identification of the relative contribution of precipitation versus temperature responsible for the respective change. Major steps in the sequence of paleoenvironmental changes, such as at 12700, 9000, 5000, and 4000 years ago are apparently related only to increase in precipitation, reflecting the latitudinal location and intensity of the westerly storm tracks. On the other hand, high paleoenvironmental variability, which is characteristic for the late-glacial and the latest Holocene, is related to temperature variability, which affects the relative moisture content. Comparison with other paleoenvironmental records suggests that the late-glacial temperature variability is probably related to variability in the extent of Antarctic sea-ice, which in turn appears to be related to the intensity of Atlantic deep-water circulation. Temperature variability during the latest Holocene, on the other hand, is probably related to the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Volcanic activity and global change: probable short-term and possible long-term linkages

Article reviews annual to decadal climate response to volcanism; long-term climatic response to volcanism; and recent results from ocean drilling in the North Pacific.

An overview of decadal to century time-scale variability in the climate system

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Time scales extracted from high-resolution proxy records and observations indicate that the spectrum of climate variability exhibits significant power in the range of decades to centuries superimposed on a red-noise continuum. The classical view of climate variability is based on the concept that observed fluctuations have their origin in periodic forcings on the same time scale. ... Instead, it is proposed that these fluctuations are linked to interactions within and between the different climate system components.

Determining the role of linear and nonlinear interactions in records of climate change: possible solar influences in annual to century-scale records

Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.

Dynamical structure in paleoclimate data

Deterministic chaos in dynamical systems offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations. The theory of chaotic dynamical systems includes methods that can test whether any given set of time series data, such as paleoclimate proxy data, are consistent with a deterministic interpretation. Paleoclimate data with annual resolution and absolute dating provide multiple channels of concurrent time series; these multiple time series can be treated as potential phase space coordinates to test whether interannual climate variability is deterministic. Dynamical structure tests which take advantage of such multichannel data are proposed and illustrated by application to a simple synthetic model of chaos, and to two paleoclimate proxy data series.

Modeling North Pacific temperature and pressure changes from coastal tree-ring chronologies

Climate modeling using coastal tree-ring chronologies has yielded the first summer temperature reconstructions for coastal stations along the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. These land temperature reconstructions are strongly correlated with nearby sea surface temperatures, indicating large-scale ocean-atmospheric influences. Significant progress has also been made in modeling winter land temperatures and sea surface temperatures from coastal and shipboard stations. In addition to temperature, the pressure variability center over the central North Pacific Ocean (PAC), which is related to the strength and location of the Aleutian Low pressure system, could be extended using coastal tree rings.

Reconstruction of aridity for the Sierra de la Laguna, Baja California Sur, Mexico

A well-documented history of past climatic conditions is needed to understand and resolve some ecological problems, but the existing climatological records are too short to detect long-term climatic variability and changes. Some trees, such as pines, produce annual tree rings with different widths depending on prevailing environmental conditions, such as climate. Tree-ring analysis of long-lived trees can be used to estimate past variations in climate. The principal aim of this study is to reconstruct aridity for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, by means of dendroclimatologic techniques.