Do you look after someone? And are you from a black or minority ethnic background? (English and translations)

This leaflet is for BME (Black and Minority Ethnic) Carers. Carers can be people of all ages including children, young people, parents, older people. There is a cut off slip for BME Carers to fill in with their details. This information can then be sent to the Carer Worker in their local Trust. Details are on the leaflet.

War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.

Simulium (Inaequalium) marins, a new species of black fly (Diptera: Simuliidae) from inselbergs in Brazil

A new species of black fly, Simulium (Inaequalium) marins (Diptera: Simuliidae), is described based on the male, female, pupa and larva. This new species was collected from two localities: a small stream on the Pico dos Marins, a high mountain with granite outcrops in Piquete County, state of São Paulo, and in a small stream in the Serra dos Órgãos National Park, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Simulium (Psilopelmia) virescens, a new black-fly species (Diptera: Simuliidae) from the southwestern region of the state of Bahia, Brazil

The last-instar larva, pupa, male and female of Simulium virescens sp. nov. are described and illustrated. This species has a peculiar larva, which has an elongated head capsule and light-green colour. The first thoracic segment has tubercle on its dorsal region and the third thoracic segment has one pair of tubercles; the first to the fourth abdominal segments have one pair of tubercles on each segment. Until now this new species had only been collected at the type locality, which is on the middle stretch of the Correntina River in the southwestern portion of the state of Bahia, Brazil. Females were voraciously biting humans during the field work. This new species represents the second species of Simulium(Psilopelmia) in Brazil and the first registered outside of the Brazilian Amazon Region.

Diversity and microdistribution of black fly (Diptera: Simuliidae) assemblages in the tropical savanna streams of the Brazilian cerrado

We describe the abiotic factors affecting the distribution of black flies at a microhabitat scale, rather than at the regional scale usually present in the literature on the Neotropics. Black fly larvae were sampled from the Tocantins River and three tributaries, located in the Brazilian savanna (state of Tocantins, Brazil) during six bi-monthly sampling periods from October 2004-August 2005. At each sampling site, 15 random quadrats (30 x 30 cm) were sampled each period and for each quadrat were determined mean water velocity, predominant substrate type (rocks, riffle litter or riparian vegetation) and depth detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) was used to determine associations with current velocity, whereas correspondence analysis (CA) was used to estimate site specific current velocity associations. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to identify general microhabitat associations. The CCA showed that most species had a trend towards riffle litter, except for Simulium nigrimanum associated with rocky substrate and Simulium cuasiexiguum associated with riparian vegetation. The DCA showed a well defined pattern of water velocity associations. The CA revealed that the species showed different speed associations from one site to another, suggesting different competitive pressures resulting in the occurrence of different realized niches.

Evolution of insecticide resistance in non-target black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae) from Argentina

Black flies, a non-target species of the insecticides used in fruit production, represent a severe medical and veterinary problem. Large increases in the level of resistance to the pyrethroids fenvalerate (more than 355-fold) and deltamethrin (162-fold) and a small increase in resistance to the organophosphate azinphos methyl (2-fold) were observed between 1996-2008 in black fly larvae under insecticide pressure. Eventually, no change or a slight variation in insecticide resistance was followed by a subsequent increase in resistance. The evolution of pesticide resistance in a field population is a complex and stepwise process that is influenced by several factors, the most significant of which is the insecticide selection pressure, such as the dose and frequency of application. The variation in insecticide susceptibility within a black fly population in the productive area may be related to changes in fruit-pest control. The frequency of individuals with esterase activities higher than the maximum value determined in the susceptible population increased consistently over the sampling period. However, the insecticide resistance was not attributed to glutathione S-transferase activity. In conclusion, esterase activity in black flies from the productive area is one mechanism underlying the high levels of resistance to pyrethroids, which have been recently used infrequently. These enzymes may be reselected by currently used pesticides and enhance the resistance to these insecticides.

Violence and displacement. Evidence from the Spanish civil war (1936-1939)

This paper explores the relationship between violence and displacement during civil war focusing on two different forms of population movements (i.e. incoming and outgoing), and two different forms of violence (i.e. direct and indirect). The paper explores the relationship between displacement and violence at the local level in the context of a civil war fought conventionally using fine-grained data from 1,062 municipalities of the region of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). First, the paper suggests that exogenous and endogenous to the war factors combine to generate patterns of resettlement. Second, the evidence indicates that, in acivil war context, refugee flows and violence are interrelated in multiple ways: the arrival of internal refugees in a locality promotes the perpetration of direct violence against civilians; this, in turn, triggers the departure of people from the locality when the other group approaches. Third, indirect violence (i.e. bombings) shows to be the most significant factor accounting for external displacement at the local level, suggesting that bombing can serve as a strong signal for civilians of the type of armed group they are facing. Finally, the Spanish case suggests that the demographic changes provoked by displacement, combined with the lethality of the conflict, are likely to have long-term political consequences.

Apreçamento de opções sobre taxa de câmbio R$/US$ negociadas no Brasil: uma comparação entre os modelos Black e redes neurais artificiais

No estudo aqui apresentado, aplicou-se um modelo de rede neural multicamadas para o apreçamento de calls sobre taxa de câmbio R$/US$, negociadas na Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias & Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBovespa), para o período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2007. A partir dos preços efetivamente praticados no mercado, comparou-se o desempenho entre essa técnica e o modelo de Black, utilizando-se métricas usuais de erro e testes estatísticos. Os resultados obtidos revelaram, em geral, a melhor adequação do modelo de inteligência artificial, em comparação ao modelo de Black, nos diferentes graus de moneyness.

The Swiss Willensnation at Risk: Teachers in the Cultural Gap during the First World War

As a neutral and multilingual country, Switzerland struggled with major domestic political conflicts during the First World War due to the two cultures of the French-speaking and German-speaking parts of the country. The divided cultural loyalties ('fossé moral', 'Röstigraben'), consisting of Swiss-Germans supporting Germany and Swiss-French supporting France, were discussed intensively in both of the main teachers' journals in Switzerland. Teachers felt the need to react and to promote unity from the beginning of the war. Despite the fact that the cantons are responsible for public education and, therefore, for the education of their students, teachers considered themselves called to educate their students to be national citizens rather than to be members of a language group. This threefold citizenship - communal, cantonal and national - was not scrutinised, but national unity became crucial due to the critical political circumstances. How did teachers promote and constitute citizenship for themselves and for their students in a nation united by free will during the First World War, a time of severe internal political conflicts?

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.