Examining life-course influences on chronic disease: the importance of birth cohort studies from low- and middle- income countries. An overview

The objectives of this overview are to describe the past and potential contributions of birth cohorts to understanding chronic disease aetiology; advance a justification for the maintenance of birth cohorts from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC); provide an audit of birth cohorts from LMIC; and, finally, offer possible future directions for this sphere of research. While the contribution of birth cohorts from affluent societies to understanding disease aetiology has been considerable, we describe several reasons to anticipate why the results from such studies might not be directly applied to LMIC. More than any other developing country, Brazil has a tradition of establishing, maintaining and exploiting birth cohort studies. The clear need for a broader geographical representation may be precipitated by a greater collaboration worldwide in the sharing of ideas, fieldwork experience, and cross-country cohort data comparisons in order to carry out the best science in the most efficient manner. This requires the involvement of a central overseeing body - such as the World Health Organization - that has the respect of all countries and the capacity to develop strategic plans for `global' life-course epidemiology while addressing such issues as data-sharing. For rapid progress to be made, however, there must be minimal bureaucratic entanglements.

Room temperature aging to guarantee microbiological safety of Brazilian artisan Canastra cheese

Canastra cheese is one of the oldest and most traditional cheeses made from raw milk in Brazil. However, this type of practice may have severe consequences for human health. According to the current legislation, any cheese made from raw milk must be aged for at least 60 days. Traditionally, Canastra cheese is consumed after different ripening periods, but consumers usually prefer those that are aged less than eight days. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of physicochemical and microbiological parameters, with emphasis on the pathogenic microbiota regulated by law, on cheese aged at room temperature and under refrigeration. Cheese samples were collected from eight different cheese producers located in the Serra da Canastra region twice a year (rainy and dry seasons) and analyzed with 8, 15, 22, 29, 36, and 64 days of ripening. Room temperature aging effectively reduced pathogens, reaching the total count established by law in 22 days, regardless of the season. However, ripening under refrigeration, it was ineffective in reducing the Staphylococcus aureus counts to the legislation limits, even after 64 days. Therefore, Canastra cheese should be ripened for at least 22 days at room temperature in order to fulfill the safety regulatory limits.

Food production in solidarity economy: an issue that goes beyond laws

Abstract Food production within the context of solidarity economy is an alternative way to offer employment and income for a significant part of the Brazilian population. The purpose of this study was to carry out a business diagnosis in order to evaluate the facilities, the production process and hygiene practices of seven solidarity economy enterprises located in the city of Novo Hamburgo, Southern Brazil, that work with food production and sales. Visits took place at the enterprises and a check-list was used to record data. Although food production happens in places with space and setting restrictions, it guarantees distinctive foods with aggregate value, where handlers follow the whole process, from raw materials selection to sales. Basic hygiene principles are followed, as they guarantee the production of food with quality, which contributes towards income generation for participating families. Specific laws that apply to the characteristics and needs of small-scale food production must be written in order to regulate solidarity economy enterprises.

Bank Income Diversification and its Impact on Profitability and Risk: Evidence from Nordic Markets

Financial industry has recently encountered many changes in the business environment. Increased regulation together with growing competition is forcing commercial banks to rethink their business models. In order to maintain profitability in the new environment, banks are focusing more into activities that yield noninterest income. This is a shift away from the traditional intermediation function of banks. This study aims to answer the question if the shift from traditional income yielding activities to more innovative noninterest activities is logical in terms of profitability and risk in Nordics. This study also aims to answer the question if diversification within the noninterest income categories has impact on profitability and risk and if there are certain categories of noninterest income that are better than others in terms of profitability and risk in Nordics. Results show that diversification between interest and noninterest activities and increase in the share of noninterest income have a negative impact on the risk adjusted returns and risk profile. Results also show that further diversification within the noninterest income categories has negative impact on risk adjusted profitability and risk while an increase of the share of commission and fee income category of total noninterest income has a positive impact on risk adjusted profitability and risk. Results are logical and in line with previous research (De Young & Roland, 2001; Stiroh, 2004). Results provide useful information to banks and help them better evaluate outcomes of different income diversification strategies.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

Corruption, income, and rule of law: empirical evidence from developing and developed economies

This article presents an empirical analysis based on cross-country data concerned with two points regarding corruption: (i) its effects on income; and (ii) how to mitigate corruption. The findings can be highlighted in two points. Firstly the idea that corruption is intrinsically connected with income is confirmed. Secondly, the traditional argument that an increase in rule of law represents a good strategy in the fight against corruption is valid for developing countries. Furthermore, this study reveals that the search for increasing the human development index represents a rule of thumb for high levels of income and to control corruption.

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

The Federal Empowerment Zone and Enterprise Community Program: Outcome on Labor Income.

Rapport de recherche

Capital Income Taxation, Depletion, Allowances and Non-Renewable Resource Extraction

Dans Cet Article, Nous Etudions les Distorsions Que Cause L'impot Sur le Revenu des Societes Dans le Profil de Production des Firmes Extractives et Dans L'allocation des Ressources Entre les Secteurs D'extraction et les Autres Secteurs Soumis a L'impot Sur les Societes. Nous Etudions En Particulier L'allocation D'epuisement, Dont Nous Montrons Qu'elle Peut Trouver Sa Justification, Non Pas a Assurer la Neutralite de L'impot, Mais En Permettant L'etablissement de Taux Effectifs D'imposition Identiques Dans les Secteurs D'extraction et Dans les Autres Secteurs.

Five-year predictors of physical activity decline among adults in low-income communities: a prospective study

Affiliation: J. O'Loughlin: Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre de recherche CHUM, Université de Montréal