Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Biotic homogenization can decrease landscape-scale forest multifunctionality

Many experiments have shown that local biodiversity loss impairs the ability of ecosystems to maintain multiple ecosystem functions at high levels (multifunctionality). In contrast, the role of biodiversity in driving ecosystem multifunctionality at landscape scales remains unresolved. We used a comprehensive pan-European dataset, including 16 ecosystem functions measured in 209 forest plots across six European countries, and performed simulations to investigate how local plot-scale richness of tree species (α-diversity) and their turnover between plots (β-diversity) are related to landscape-scale multifunctionality. After accounting for variation in environmental conditions, we found that relationships between α-diversity and landscape-scale multifunctionality varied from positive to negative depending on the multifunctionality metric used. In contrast, when significant, relationships between β-diversity and landscape-scale multifunctionality were always positive, because a high spatial turnover in species composition was closely related to a high spatial turnover in functions that were supported at high levels. Our findings have major implications for forest management and indicate that biotic homogenization can have previously unrecognized and negative consequences for large-scale ecosystem multifunctionality.

Effect of calf purchase and other herd-level risk factors on mortality, unwanted early slaughter, and use of antimicrobial group treatments in Swiss veal calf operations.

The objective of this survey was to determine herd level risk factors for mortality, unwanted early slaughter, and metaphylactic application of antimicrobial group therapy in Swiss veal calves in 2013. A questionnaire regarding farm structure, farm management, mortality and antimicrobial use was sent to all farmers registered in a Swiss label program setting requirements for improved animal welfare and sustainability. Risk factors were determined by multivariable logistic regression. A total of 619 veal producers returned a useable questionnaire (response rate=28.5%), of which 40.9% only fattened their own calves (group O), 56.9% their own calves and additional purchased calves (group O&P), and 2.3% only purchased calves for fattening (group P). A total number of 19,077 calves entered the fattening units in 2013, of which 21.7%, 66.7%, and 11.6% belonged to groups O, O&P, and P, respectively. Mortality was 0% in 322 herds (52.0%), between 0% and 3% in 47 herds (7.6%), and ≥3% in 250 herds (40.4%). Significant risk factors for mortality were purchasing calves, herd size, higher incidence of BRD, and access to an outside pen. Metaphylaxis was used on 13.4% of the farms (7.9% only upon arrival, 4.4% only later in the fattening period, 1.1% upon arrival and later), in 3.2% of the herds of group O, 17.9% of those in group O&P, and 92.9% of those of group P. Application of metaphylaxis upon arrival was positively associated with purchase (OR=8.9) and herd size (OR=1.2 per 10 calves). Metaphylaxis later in the production cycle was positively associated with group size (OR=2.9) and risk of respiratory disease (OR=1.2 per 10% higher risk) and negatively with the use of individual antimicrobial treatment (OR=0.3). In many countries, purchase and a large herd size are inherently connected to veal production. The Swiss situation with large commercial but also smaller herds with little or no purchase of calves made it possible to investigate the effect of these factors on mortality and antimicrobial drug use. The results of this study show that a system where small farms raise the calves from their own herds has a substantial potential to improve animal health and reduce antimicrobial drug use.

Jack-of-all-trades effects drive biodiversity–ecosystem multifunctionality relationships in European forests

There is considerable evidence that biodiversity promotes multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality), thus ensuring the delivery of ecosystem services important for human well-being. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are poorly understood, especially in natural ecosystems. We develop a novel approach to partition biodiversity effects on multifunctionality into three mechanisms and apply this to European forest data. We show that throughout Europe, tree diversity is positively related with multifunctionality when moderate levels of functioning are required, but negatively when very high function levels are desired. For two well-known mechanisms, ‘complementarity’ and ‘selection’, we detect only minor effects on multifunctionality. Instead a third, so far overlooked mechanism, the ‘jack-of-all-trades’ effect, caused by the averaging of individual species effects on function, drives observed patterns. Simulations demonstrate that jack-of-all-trades effects occur whenever species effects on different functions are not perfectly correlated, meaning they may contribute to diversity–multifunctionality relationships in many of the world’s ecosystems.

Epiphytic orchid diversity and community composition in managed and natural moist evergreen Afromontane forest in SW Ethiopia

In SW Ethiopia, the moist evergreen Afromontane forest has become extremely fragmented and most of the remnants are intensively managed for coffee cultivation (Coffea arabica), with considerable impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Because epiphytic orchids are potential indicators for forest quality and a proxy for overall forest biodiversity, we assessed the effect of forest management and forest fragmentation on epiphytic orchid diversity. We selected managed forest sites from both large and small forest remnants and compared their epiphytic orchid diversity with the diversity of natural unfragmented forest. We surveyed 339 canopy trees using rope climbing techniques. Orchid richness decreased and community composition changed, from the natural unfragmented forest, over the large managed forest fragments to the small managed forest fragments. This indicates that both forest management and fragmentation contribute to the loss of epiphytic orchids. Both the removal of large canopy trees typical for coffee management, and the occurrence of edge effects accompanying forest fragmentation are likely responsible for species loss and community composition changes. Even though some endangered orchid species persist even in the smallest fragments, large managed forest fragments are better options for the conservation of epiphytic orchids than small managed forests. Our results ultimately show that even though shade coffee cultivation is considered as a close-to-nature practice and is promoted as biodiversity conservation friendly, it cannot compete with the epiphytic orchid conservation benefit generated by unmanaged moist evergreen Afromontane forests.

La crisis de identidad de la Educación Física : Diagnóstico y explicación

El trabajo analiza el estado de crisis de identidad en que se encuentra sumergida la educación física. Para ello en primera instancia se describe el estado actual de la disciplina reconociendo sus principales problemas, para luego explicar las ideologías que conviven en su campo. A su vez se propone como modelo teórico el "fracaso autoreproductor" como hipótesis que exhibe la mencionada crisis. Para terminar se proponen desde la conclusión alternativas superadoras del problema descripto

La crisis de identidad de la Educación Física : Diagnóstico y explicación

El trabajo analiza el estado de crisis de identidad en que se encuentra sumergida la educación física. Para ello en primera instancia se describe el estado actual de la disciplina reconociendo sus principales problemas, para luego explicar las ideologías que conviven en su campo. A su vez se propone como modelo teórico el "fracaso autoreproductor" como hipótesis que exhibe la mencionada crisis. Para terminar se proponen desde la conclusión alternativas superadoras del problema descripto

La crisis de identidad de la Educación Física : Diagnóstico y explicación

El trabajo analiza el estado de crisis de identidad en que se encuentra sumergida la educación física. Para ello en primera instancia se describe el estado actual de la disciplina reconociendo sus principales problemas, para luego explicar las ideologías que conviven en su campo. A su vez se propone como modelo teórico el "fracaso autoreproductor" como hipótesis que exhibe la mencionada crisis. Para terminar se proponen desde la conclusión alternativas superadoras del problema descripto