Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Augmenting the effective field of view of optical tracking cameras--a way to overcome difficulties during intraoperative camera alignment

An Internet survey demonstrated the existence of problems related to intraoperative tracking camera set-up and alignment. It is hypothesized that these problems are a result of the limited field of view of today's optoelectronic camera systems, which is usually insufficiently large to keep the entire site of surgical action in view during an intervention. A method is proposed to augment a camera's field of view by actively controlling camera orientation, enabling it to track instruments as they are used intraoperatively. In an experimental study, an increase of almost 300% was found in the effective volume in which instruments could be tracked.

EVALUATION OF THE EVOLVING STRESS FIELD OF THE YELLOWSTONE VOLCANIC PLATEAU FROM 1988 TO 2010 FROM EARTHQUAKE FIRST MOTIONS INVERSION

Within the Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, the silicic Yellowstone volcanic field is one of the most active volcanic systems all over the world. Although the last rhyolite eruption occurred around 70,000 years ago, Yellowstone is still believed to be volcanically active, due to high hydrothermal and seismic activity. The earthquake data used in this study cover the period of time between 1988 and 2010. Earthquake relocations and a set of 369 well-constrained, double-couple, focal mechanism solutions were computed. Events were grouped according to location and time to investigate trends in faulting. The majority of the events has oblique, normal-faulting solutions. The overall direction of extension throughout the 0.64 Ma Yellowstone caldera looks nearly ENE, consistently with the direction of alignments of volcanic vents within the caldera, but detailed study revealed spatial and temporal variations. Stress-field solutions for different areas and time periods were calculated from earthquake focal mechanism inversion. A well-resolved rotation of σ3 was found, from NNE-SSW near the Hebgen Lake fault zone, to ENE-WSW near Norris Junction. In particular, the σ3 direction changed throughout the years in the Norris Junction area, from being ENE-WSW, as calculated in the study by Waite and Smith (2004), to NNE-SSW, while the other σ3 directions are mostly unchanged over time. The Yellowstone caldera was subject to periods of net uplift and subsidence over the past century, explained in previous studies as caused by expanding or contracting sills, at different depths. Based on the models used to explain these deformation periods, we investigated the relationship between variability in aseismic deformation and seismic activity and faulting styles. Focal mechanisms and P and T axes were divided into temporal and depth intervals, in order to identify spatial or temporal trends in deformation. The presence of “chocolate tablet” structures, with composite dilational faults, was identified in many stages of the deformation history both in the Norris Geyser Basin area and inside the caldera. Strike-slip component movement was found in a depth interval below a contracting sill, indicating the movement of magma towards the caldera.

Making research works visible and stimulating a research milieu in the field of social work - The European Resource Centre for Social Work Research (CERTS)

The project to create a European Resource Centre for Social Work Research (CERTS) has been agreed in December 2001 by the General Research Board of the European Commission within the framework programme 'Accompanying Measures for the improving the Human research potential and the Socio Economic Knowledge Base'.

The SAKK cancer-specific geriatric assessment (C-SGA): a pilot study of a brief tool for clinical decision-making in older cancer patients

BACKGROUND Recommendations from international task forces on geriatric assessment emphasize the need for research including validation of cancer-specific geriatric assessment (C-SGA) tools in oncological settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of the SAKK Cancer-Specific Geriatric Assessment (C-SGA) in clinical practice. METHODS A cross sectional study of cancer patients >=65 years old (N = 51) with pathologically confirmed cancer presenting for initiation of chemotherapy treatment (07/01/2009-03/31/2011) at two oncology departments in Swiss canton hospitals: Kantonsspital Graubunden (KSGR N = 25), Kantonsspital St. Gallen (KSSG N = 26). Data was collected using three instruments, the SAKK C-SGA plus physician and patient evaluation forms. The SAKK C-SGA includes six measures covering five geriatric assessment domains (comorbidity, function, psychosocial, nutrition, cognition) using a mix of medical record abstraction (MRA) and patient interview. Five individual domains and one overall SAKK C-SGA score were calculated and dichotomized as below/above literature-based cut-offs. The SAKK C-SGA was evaluated by: patient and physician estimated time to complete, ease of completing, and difficult or unanswered questions. RESULTS Time to complete the patient questionnaire was considered acceptable by almost all (>=96%) patients and physicians. Patients reported slightly shorter times to complete the questionnaire than physicians (17.33 +/- 7.34 vs. 20.59 +/- 6.53 minutes, p = 0.02). Both groups rated the patient questionnaire as easy/fairly easy to complete (91% vs. 84% respectively, p = 0.14) with few difficult or unanswered questions. The MRA took on average 8.32 +/- 4.72 minutes to complete. Physicians (100%) considered time to complete MRA acceptable, 96% rated it as easy/fairly easy to complete. Individual study site populations differed on health-related characteristics (excellent/good physician-rated general health KSGR 71% vs. KSSG 32%, p = 0.007). The overall mean C-SGA score was 2.4 +/- 1.12. Patients at KSGR had lower C-SGA scores (2.00 +/- 1.19 vs. 2.81 +/- 0.90, p = 0.009) and a smaller proportion (28% vs.65%, p = 0.008) was above the C-SGA cut-off score compared to KSSG. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest the SAKK C-SGA is a feasible practical tool for use in clinical practice. It demonstrated discriminative ability based on objective geriatric assessment measures, but additional investigations on use for clinical decision-making are warranted. The SAKK C-SGA also provides important usable domain information for intervention to optimize outcomes in older cancer patients.