Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Efficacy of memantine on behavioral and psychological symptoms related to dementia:a systematic meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The behavioral and psychological symptoms related to dementia (BPSD) are difficult to manage and are associated with adverse patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To systematically analyze the data on memantine in the treatment of BPSD. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Pharm-line, the Cochrane Centre Collaboration, www.clinicaltrials.gov, www.controlled-trials.com, and PsycINFO (1966-July 2007). We contacted manufacturers and scrutinized the reference sections of articles identified in our search for further references, including conference proceedings. Two researchers (IM and CF) independently reviewed all studies identified by the search strategy. We included 6 randomized, parallel-group, double-blind studies that rated BPSD with the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) in our meta-analysis. Patients had probable Alzheimer's disease and received treatment with memantine for at least one month. Overall efficacy of memantine on the NPI was established with a t-test for the average difference between means across studies, using a random effects model. RESULTS: Five of the 6 studies identified had NPI outcome data. In these 5 studies, 868 patients were treated with memantine and 882 patients were treated with placebo. Patients on memantine improved by 1.99 on the NPI scale (95% Cl -0.08 to -3.91; p = 0.041) compared with the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Initial data appear to indicate that memantine decreases NPI scores and may have a role in managing BPSD. However, there are a number of limitations with the current data; the effect size was relatively small, and whether memantine produces significant clinical benefit is not clear.

Impact of cholinesterase inhibitors on behavioral and psychological symptoms of Alzheimer's disease:a meta-analysis

Objective: To determine the efficacy of cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) in improving the behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Data sources: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Registry, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) from 1966 to 2007. We limited our search to English Language, full text, published articles and human studies. Data extraction: We included randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of donepezil, rivastigmine, or galantamine in managing BPSD displayed by AD patients. Using the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines, we critically appraised all studies and included only those with an attrition rate of less than 40%, concealed measurement of the outcomes, and intention to treat analysis of the collected data. All data were imputed into pre-defined evidence based tables and were pooled using the Review Manager 4.2.1 software for data synthesis. Results: We found 12 studies that met our inclusion criteria but only nine of them provided sufficient data for the meta-analysis. Among patients with mild to severe AD and in comparison to placebo, ChEIs as a class had a beneficial effects on reducing BPSD with a standard mean difference (SMD) of -0.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]; -0.18, -0.01) and a weighted mean difference (WMD) of -1.38 neuropsychiatry inventory point (95% CI; -2.30, -0.46). In studies with mild AD patients, the WMD was -1.92 (95% CI; -3.18, -0.66); and in studies with severe AD patients, the WMD was -0.06 (95% CI; -2.12, +0.57). Conclusion: Cholinesterase inhibitors lead to a statistical significant reduction in BPSD among patients with AD, yet the clinical relevance of this effect remains unclear.

The analysis of potentiostatic transients applied to the corrosion of steel in concrete

Potentiostatically induced current transients obtained on a range of reinforced concrete specimens were analysed to give estimates of the polarisation resistance and interfacial capacitance. The polarisation resistance was compared with the values obtained using more conventional DC methods of analysis and, while it was consistently lower, it was within the error normally attributed to the polarisation resistance method of corrosion rate determination. The interfacial capacitance values determined increased from 0.44 F m -2 for passive steel (polarisation resistance of 132 Ω m 2) to 26.5 F m -2 for active steel (polarisation resistance of 0.34 Ω m 2). This has a dominant effect on the time required for potentiostatically induced current transients to reach a steady state with a longer time being required by actively corroding steel. By contrast the potential decay time constants describing galvanostatically or coulostatically induced potential transients decrease with an increase in corrosion rate and values less than 25 s for active specimens and greater than 40 s for passive specimens were determined in this work. © 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Sensitivity Analysis of Some Applied Probability Models

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: Primary 90C31. Secondary 62C12, 62P05, 93C41.

Bizalom az üzleti kapcsolatokban. A diadikus adatelemzés egy alkalmazása = Trust in business relations - an application of dyadic data analysis

A tanulmány arra a feltevésre épül, hogy minél erősebb a bizalomra méltóság szintje egy adott üzleti kapcsolatban, annál inkább igaz, hogy nagy kockázatú tevékenységek mennek végbe benne. Ilyen esetekben a bizalomra méltóság a kapcsolatban zajló események, cselekvések irányítási eszközévé válik, és az üzleti kapcsolatban megjelenik a cselekvési hajlandóságként értelmezett bizalom. A tanulmány felhívja a figyelmet a bizalom és a bizalomra méltóság fogalmai közötti különbségre, szisztematikus különválasztásuk fontosságára. Bemutatja az úgynevezett diadikus adatelemzés gazdálkodástudományi alkalmazását. Empirikus eredményei is igazolják, hogy ezzel a módszerrel az üzleti kapcsolatok társas jellemzőinek (köztük a bizalomnak) és a közöttük lévő kapcsolatoknak mélyebb elemzésére nyílik lehetőség. ____ The paper rests on the behavioral interpretation of trust, making a clear distinction between trustworthiness (honesty) and trust interpreted as willingness to engage in risky situations with specific partners. The hypothesis tested is that in a business relation marked by high levels of trustworthiness as perceived by the opposite parties, willingness to be involved in risky situations is higher than it is in relations where actors do not believe their partners to be highly trustworthy. Testing this hypothesis clearly calls for dyadic operationalization, measurement, and analysis. The authors present the first economic application of a newly developed statistical technique called dyadic data analysis, which has already been applied in social psychology. It clearly overcomes the problem of single-ended research in business relations analysis and allows a deeper understanding of any dyadic phenomenon, including trust/trustworthiness as a governance mechanism.

Formal modeling and analysis techniques for high level Petri nets

Petri Nets are a formal, graphical and executable modeling technique for the specification and analysis of concurrent and distributed systems and have been widely applied in computer science and many other engineering disciplines. Low level Petri nets are simple and useful for modeling control flows but not powerful enough to define data and system functionality. High level Petri nets (HLPNs) have been developed to support data and functionality definitions, such as using complex structured data as tokens and algebraic expressions as transition formulas. Compared to low level Petri nets, HLPNs result in compact system models that are easier to be understood. Therefore, HLPNs are more useful in modeling complex systems. ^ There are two issues in using HLPNs—modeling and analysis. Modeling concerns the abstracting and representing the systems under consideration using HLPNs, and analysis deals with effective ways study the behaviors and properties of the resulting HLPN models. In this dissertation, several modeling and analysis techniques for HLPNs are studied, which are integrated into a framework that is supported by a tool. ^ For modeling, this framework integrates two formal languages: a type of HLPNs called Predicate Transition Net (PrT Net) is used to model a system's behavior and a first-order linear time temporal logic (FOLTL) to specify the system's properties. The main contribution of this dissertation with regard to modeling is to develop a software tool to support the formal modeling capabilities in this framework. ^ For analysis, this framework combines three complementary techniques, simulation, explicit state model checking and bounded model checking (BMC). Simulation is a straightforward and speedy method, but only covers some execution paths in a HLPN model. Explicit state model checking covers all the execution paths but suffers from the state explosion problem. BMC is a tradeoff as it provides a certain level of coverage while more efficient than explicit state model checking. The main contribution of this dissertation with regard to analysis is adapting BMC to analyze HLPN models and integrating the three complementary analysis techniques in a software tool to support the formal analysis capabilities in this framework. ^ The SAMTools developed for this framework in this dissertation integrates three tools: PIPE+ for HLPNs behavioral modeling and simulation, SAMAT for hierarchical structural modeling and property specification, and PIPE+Verifier for behavioral verification.^

Formal Modeling and Analysis Techniques for High Level Petri Nets

Petri Nets are a formal, graphical and executable modeling technique for the specification and analysis of concurrent and distributed systems and have been widely applied in computer science and many other engineering disciplines. Low level Petri nets are simple and useful for modeling control flows but not powerful enough to define data and system functionality. High level Petri nets (HLPNs) have been developed to support data and functionality definitions, such as using complex structured data as tokens and algebraic expressions as transition formulas. Compared to low level Petri nets, HLPNs result in compact system models that are easier to be understood. Therefore, HLPNs are more useful in modeling complex systems. There are two issues in using HLPNs - modeling and analysis. Modeling concerns the abstracting and representing the systems under consideration using HLPNs, and analysis deals with effective ways study the behaviors and properties of the resulting HLPN models. In this dissertation, several modeling and analysis techniques for HLPNs are studied, which are integrated into a framework that is supported by a tool. For modeling, this framework integrates two formal languages: a type of HLPNs called Predicate Transition Net (PrT Net) is used to model a system's behavior and a first-order linear time temporal logic (FOLTL) to specify the system's properties. The main contribution of this dissertation with regard to modeling is to develop a software tool to support the formal modeling capabilities in this framework. For analysis, this framework combines three complementary techniques, simulation, explicit state model checking and bounded model checking (BMC). Simulation is a straightforward and speedy method, but only covers some execution paths in a HLPN model. Explicit state model checking covers all the execution paths but suffers from the state explosion problem. BMC is a tradeoff as it provides a certain level of coverage while more efficient than explicit state model checking. The main contribution of this dissertation with regard to analysis is adapting BMC to analyze HLPN models and integrating the three complementary analysis techniques in a software tool to support the formal analysis capabilities in this framework. The SAMTools developed for this framework in this dissertation integrates three tools: PIPE+ for HLPNs behavioral modeling and simulation, SAMAT for hierarchical structural modeling and property specification, and PIPE+Verifier for behavioral verification.

A comparative study of translation strategies applied in dealing with role languages. : A translation analysis of the video game Final Fantasy XIV

Localisation is the process of taking a product and adapting it to fit the culture in question. This usually involves making it both linguistically and culturally appropriate for the target audience. While there are many areas in video game translations where localisation holds a factor, this study will focus on localisation changes in the personalities of fictional characters between the original Japanese version and the English localised version of the video game Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn and its expansion Heavensward for PC, PS3 and PS4. With this in mind, specific examples are examined using Satoshi Kinsui's work on yakuwarigo, role language as the main framework for this study. Five non-playable characters were profiled and had each of their dialogues transcribed for a comparative analysis. This included the original Japanese text, the officially localised English text and a translation of the original Japanese text done by myself. Each character were also given a short summary and a reasoned speculation on why these localisation changes might have occurred. The result shows that there were instances where some translations had been deliberately adjusted to ensure that the content did not cause any problematic issues to players overseas. This could be reasoned out that some of the Japanese role languages displayed by characters in this game could potentially cause dispute among the western audience. In conclusion, the study shows that localisation can be a difficult process that not only requires a translator's knowledge of the source and target language, but also display some creativity in writing ability to ensure that players will have a comparable experience without causing a rift in the fanbase.

Predator odor-induced fear in rats : a behavioral characterization and neural substrate analysis

Otto-von Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Fakultät für Naturwissenschaften, Dissertation, 2016

A Parameter Estimation and Identifiability Analysis Methodology Applied to a Street Canyon Air Pollution Model

Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.

On independent component analysis applied to unmixing hyperspectral data

One of the most challenging task underlying many hyperspectral imagery applications is the spectral unmixing, which decomposes a mixed pixel into a collection of reectance spectra, called endmember signatures, and their corresponding fractional abundances. Independent Component Analysis (ICA) have recently been proposed as a tool to unmix hyperspectral data. The basic goal of ICA is to nd a linear transformation to recover independent sources (abundance fractions) given only sensor observations that are unknown linear mixtures of the unobserved independent sources. In hyperspectral imagery the sum of abundance fractions associated to each pixel is constant due to physical constraints in the data acquisition process. Thus, sources cannot be independent. This paper address hyperspectral data source dependence and its impact on ICA performance. The study consider simulated and real data. In simulated scenarios hyperspectral observations are described by a generative model that takes into account the degradation mechanisms normally found in hyperspectral applications. We conclude that ICA does not unmix correctly all sources. This conclusion is based on the a study of the mutual information. Nevertheless, some sources might be well separated mainly if the number of sources is large and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015