Bats and Emerging Zoonoses: Henipaviruses and SARS.

Nearly 75% of all emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) that impact or threaten human health are zoonotic. The majority have spilled from wildlife reservoirs, either directly to humans or via domestic animals. The emergence of many can be attributed to predisposing factors such as global travel, trade, agricultural expansion, deforestation habitat fragmentation, and urbanization; such factors increase the interface and or the rate of contact between human, domestic animal, and wildlife populations, thereby creating increased opportunities for spillover events to occur. Infectious disease emergence can be regarded as primarily an ecological process. The epidemiological investigation of EIDs associated with wildlife requires a trans-disciplinary approach that includes an understanding of the ecology of the wildlife species, and an understanding of human behaviours that increase risk of exposure. Investigations of the emergence of Nipah virus in Malaysia in 1999 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China in 2003 provide useful case studies. The emergence of Nipah virus was associated with the increased size and density of commercial pig farms and their encroachment into forested areas. The movement of pigs for sale and slaughter in turn led to the rapid spread of infection to southern peninsular Malaysia, where the high-density, largely urban pig populations facilitated transmission to humans. Identifying the factors associated with the emergence of SARS in southern China requires an understanding of the ecology of infection both in the natural reservoir and in secondary market reservoir species. A necessary extension of understanding the ecology of the reservoir is an understanding of the trade, and of the social and cultural context of wildlife consumption. Emerging infectious diseases originating from wildlife populations will continue to threaten public health. Mitigating and managing the risk requires an appreciation of the connectedness between human, livestock and wildlife health, and of the factors and processes that disrupt the balance.

Rapid Global Expansion of the Fungal Disease Chytridiomycosis into Declining and Healthy Amphibian Populations.

The fungal disease chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is enigmatic because it occurs globally in both declining and apparently healthy (non-declining) amphibian populations. This distribution has fueled debate concerning whether, in sites where it has recently been found, the pathogen was introduced or is endemic. In this study, we addressed the molecular population genetics of a global collection of fungal strains from both declining and healthy amphibian populations using DNA sequence variation from 17 nuclear loci and a large fragment from the mitochondrial genome. We found a low rate of DNA polymorphism, with only two sequence alleles detected at each locus, but a high diversity of diploid genotypes. Half of the loci displayed an excess of heterozygous genotypes, consistent with a primarily clonal mode of reproduction. Despite the absence of obvious sex, genotypic diversity was high (44 unique genotypes out of 59 strains). We provide evidence that the observed genotypic variation can be generated by loss of heterozygosity through mitotic recombination. One strain isolated from a bullfrog possessed as much allelic diversity as the entire global sample, suggesting the current epidemic can be traced back to the outbreak of a single clonal lineage. These data are consistent with the current chytridiomycosis epidemic resulting from a novel pathogen undergoing a rapid and recent range expansion. The widespread occurrence of the same lineage in both healthy and declining populations suggests that the outcome of the disease is contingent on environmental factors and host resistance.

Co-evolution of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and RHDV: resistance and virulence

Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV) was introduced to Australia in 1995 for the control of wild rabbits. Initial outbreaks greatly reduced rabbit numbers and the virus has continued to control rabbits to varying degrees in different parts of Australia. However, recent field evidence suggests that the virus may be becoming less effective in those areas that have previously experienced repeated epizootics causing high mortality. There are also reports of rabbits returning to pre-1995 density levels, Virus and host can be expected to co-evolve. The host will develop resistance to the virus with the virus subsequently changing to overcome that resistance. It has been 12 years since the release of RHDV and it is an opportune time to examine where the dynamic currently stands between RHDV and rabbits. Laboratory challenge tests have indicated that resistance to RHDV has developed to different degrees in populations throughout Australia. In one population a low dose (1:25 dilution) of Czech strain RHDV failed to infect a single susceptible rabbit, yet infected a low to high (up to 73%) percentage across other populations tested. Different selection pressures are present in these populations and will be driving the level of resistance being seen. The mechanisms and genetics behind the development of resistance are also important as the on-going use of RHDV as a control tool in the management of rabbits relies on our understanding of factors influencing the efficacy of the virus. Understanding how resistance has developed may provide clues on how best to use the virus to circumvent these mechanisms. Similarly, it will help in managing populations that have yet to develop high levels of resistance.

Modelling management options for management of feral camels in central Australia

Camels (Camelus dromedarius) were introduced into Australia from the 1840s to the early 1900s for transport and hauling cargo in arid regions. Feral populations remained small until the 1930s when many were released after they were superseded for transport by trucks and rail. Although camels have a relatively slow population growth (<10% per annum), the population has not reached carrying capacity and therefore, requires control to reduce the increasing impacts on central Australia. The model developed for the Northern Territory suggested that currently there are insufficient numbers being removed. The model also investigated which control options would have greatest impacts and found harvesting to be most important. The extent to which commercial harvesting can feasibly reduce camel populations requires further analysis. Due to the wide dispersal of camels in Australia, fertility control, even if technically feasible, will not target adults, the most important age class of the population. Habitat preferences were also investigated in the model but more validation is required as the population is still under range expansion. Immediate action is suggested to alleviate future costs as camel populations and their impacts rise.

Eradication of invasive species: progress and emerging issues in the 21st century

At an international conference on the eradication of invasive species, held in 2001, Simberloff (2002) noted some past successes in eradication—from the global eradication of smallpox (Fenner et al. 1988) to the many successful eradications of populations (mostly mammals) from small islands (e.g. Veitch and Bell 1990; Burbidge and Morris 2002). However, he cautioned that we needed to be more ambitious and aim higher if we are to prevent and reverse the growing threat of the homogenization of global biodiversity. In this chapter we review how the management strategy of eradication—the permanent removal of entire discrete populations—has contributed to the stretch in goals advocated by Simberloff. We also discuss impediments to eradication success, and summarize how some of the lessons learnt during this process have contributed to the other strategies (prevention and sustained control) that are required to manage the wider threat posed by invasive alien species. We concentrate on terrestrial vertebrates and weeds (our areas of expertise), but touch on terrestrial invertebrates and marine and freshwater species in the discussion on emerging issues, to illustrate some of the different constraints these taxa and habitats impose on the feasibility of eradication.

Population dynamics of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in north eastern Australia: simulated responses to control

Wild European rabbits are a serious problem to agriculture in Australia, with an estimated annual cost of A$ 113 million. Biological control agents (myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus) have caused large and sustained declines in rabbit populations throughout Australia. A simulation model incorporates these diseases as well as warren destruction as methods of controlling rabbit populations in Queensland, north eastern Australia. These diseases reduced populations by 90-99% and the combination of these and warren destruction led to 100% control in simulations at six sites across southern Queensland. Increasing monthly pasture growth by 15% had little effect on simulated populations whereas a 15% decrease reduced populations by 0-50%. An increase in temperature of 2.5 °C would lead to a 15-60% decrease in populations. These effects suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in the population of rabbits in Queensland and a retraction in the northern limit of their distribution in Australia.

On evolutionarily stable compositions of populations of interacting genotypes.

Consider an organism in which the genetic fitness of an individual depends to a large extent on its social interactions. Assuming the genotypes to differ only in the choice of strategies they adopt in social interactions, and equating the variation in genetic fitness to the mean payoff to an individual averaged over all possible encounters, we develop a dynamical model for the evolution of genotypic frequencies in such a population. Such a system is characterised by frequency dependent selection, and depending on the initial composition, the population evolves towards one of several possible compositions. We term as evolutionarily stable compositions (ESC) any such composition towards which a population can evolve and which is stable against small fluctuations in the frequencies of existing genotypes as well as to invasions by any other postulated genotype. We state the necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of all possible ESC's for any number of interacting genotypes. Our results conform to those derived earlier in connection with the concept of evolutionarily stable strategies only in the case of two interacting genotypes; when more than two genotypes interact the conditions under which various ESC's exist become far richer. We consider interactions with mixed strategists and show that in a conflict with pure strategists the optimal mixed strategist will be the only one to ultimately survive. We illustrate our approach by considering the specific case of a primitively social wasp.

Modelling the movement of interacting cell populations: A moment dynamics approach

Mathematical models describing the movement of multiple interacting subpopulations are relevant to many biological and ecological processes. Standard mean-field partial differential equation descriptions of these processes suffer from the limitation that they implicitly neglect to incorporate the impact of spatial correlations and clustering. To overcome this, we derive a moment dynamics description of a discrete stochastic process which describes the spreading of distinct interacting subpopulations. In particular, we motivate our model by mimicking the geometry of two typical cell biology experiments. Comparing the performance of the moment dynamics model with a traditional mean-field model confirms that the moment dynamics approach always outperforms the traditional mean-field approach. To provide more general insight we summarise the performance of the moment dynamics model and the traditional mean-field model over a wide range of parameter regimes. These results help distinguish between those situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently strong, such that a moment dynamics model is required, from other situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently weak, such that a traditional mean-field model is adequate.

Impacts of grazing management options on pasture and animal productivity in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland. 4. Animal production.

Steer liveweight gains were measured in an extensive grazing study conducted in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. Treatments included a range of stocking rates in native pastures, legume-oversown native pasture and animal diet supplement/spring-burning pastures. Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean. Mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 13 to 61%. Annual liveweight gains per head in native pasture were highly variable among years and ranged from a low of 43 kg/steer at 2 ha/steer to a high of 182 kg/steer at 8 ha/steer. Annual liveweight gains were consistently highest at light stocking and decreased with increasing stocking rate. Annual liveweight gain per hectare increased linearly with stocking rate. These stocking rate trends were also evident in legume-oversown pastures although both the intercept and slope of the regressions for legume-oversown pastures were higher than that for native pasture. The highest annual liveweight gain for legume-oversown pasture was 221 kg/steer at 4 ha/steer. After 13 years, annual liveweight gain per unit area occurred at the heaviest stocking rate despite deleterious changes in the pasture. Across all years, the annual liveweight advantage for legume-oversown pastures was 37 kg/steer. Compared with native pasture, changes in annual liveweight gain with burning were variable. It was concluded that cattle productivity is sustainable when stocking rates are maintained at 4 ha/steer or lighter (equivalent to a utilisation rate around 30%). Although steer liveweight gain occurred at all stocking rates and economic returns were highest at heaviest stocking rates, stocking rates heavier than 4 ha/steer are unsustainable because of their long-term impact on pasture productivity.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Increased reproductive success in older female red kangaroos and the impact of harvesting

Wildlife harvesting has a long history in Australia, including obvious examples of overexploitation. Not surprisingly, there is scepticism that commercial harvesting can be undertaken sustainably. Kangaroo harvesting has been challenged regularly at Administrative Appeals Tribunals and elsewhere over the past three decades. Initially, the concern from conservation groups was sustainability of the harvest. This has been addressed through regular, direct monitoring that now spans > 30 years and a conservative harvest regime with a low risk of overharvest in the face of uncertainty. Opposition to the harvest now continues from animal rights groups whose concerns have shifted from overall harvest sustainability to side effects such as animal welfare, and changes to community structure, genetic composition and population age structure. Many of these concerns are speculative and difficult to address, requiring expensive data. One concern is that older females are the more successful breeders and teach their daughters optimal habitat and diet selection. The lack of older animals in a harvested population may reduce the fitness of the remaining individuals; implying population viability would also be compromised. This argument can be countered by the persistence of populations under harvesting without any obvious impairment to reproduction. Nevertheless, an interesting question is how age influences reproductive output. In this study, data collected from a number of red kangaroo populations across eastern Australia indicate that the breeding success of older females is up to 7-20% higher than that of younger females. This effect is smaller than that of body condition and the environment, which can increase breeding success by up to 30% and 60% respectively. Average age of mature females in a population may be reduced from 9 to 6 years old, resulting in a potential reduction in breeding success of 3-4%. This appears to be offset in harvested populations by improved condition of females from a reduction in kangaroo density. There is an important recommendation for management. The best insurance policy against overharvest and unwanted side effects is not research, which could be never-ending. Rather, it is a harvest strategy that includes safeguards against uncertainty such as harvest reserves, conservative quotas and regular monitoring. Research is still important in fine tuning that strategy and is most usefully incorporated as adaptive management where it can address the key questions on how populations respond to harvesting.

Demography of feral camels in central Australia and its relevance to population control

Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.

Impacts of grazing management options on pasture and animal productivity in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland. 3. Diet composition in autumn

The diet selected in autumn by steers fistulated at the oesophageous was studied in a subset of treatments in an extensive grazing study conducted in a Heteropogon contortus pasture in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. These treatments were a factorial array of three stocking rates (4, 3 and 2 ha/steer) and three pasture types (native pasture, legume-oversown native pasture and animal diet supplement/spring-burning native pasture). Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean and mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 30 to 61%. Steers consistently selected H. contortus with levels decreasing from 47 to 18% of the diet as stocking rate increased from 4 ha/steer to 2 ha/steer. Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca was always selected in legume-oversown pastures with diet composition varying from 35 to 66% despite its plant density increasing from 7 to 65 plants/m(2) and pasture composition from 20 to 50%. Steers also selected a diet containing Chrysopogon fallax, forbs and sedges in higher proportions than they were present in the pasture. Greater availability of the intermediate grasses Chloris divaricata and Eragrostis spp. was associated with increased stocking rates. Bothriochloa bladhii was seldom selected in the diet, especially when other palatable species were present in the pasture, despite B. bladhii often being the major contributor to total pasture yield. It was concluded that a stocking rate of 4 ha/steer will maintain the availability of H. contortus in the pasture.

Pre-cropping with canola decreased Pratylenchus thornei populations, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, and yield of wheat.

Root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) significantly reduces wheat yields in the northern Australian grain region. Canola is thought to have a 'biofumigation' potential to control nematodes; therefore, a field experiment was designed to compare canola with other winter crops or clean-fallow for reducing P. thornei population densities and improving growth of P. thornei-intolerant wheat (cv. Batavia) in the following year. Immediately after harvest of the first-year crops, populations of P. thornei were lowest following various canola cultivars or clean-fallow (1957-5200 P. thornei/kg dry soil) and were highest following susceptible wheat cultivars (31 033-41 294/kg dry soil). Unexpectedly, at planting of the second-year wheat crop, nematode populations were at more uniform lower levels (<5000/kg dry soil), irrespective of the previous season's treatment, and remained that way during the growing season, which was quite dry. Growth and grain yield of the second-year wheat crop were poorest on plots previously planted with canola or left fallow due to poor colonisation with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, with the exception of canola cv. Karoo, which had high AM fungal colonisation and low wheat yields. There were significant regressions between growth and yield parameters of the second-year wheat and levels of AMF following the pre-crop treatments. Thus, canola appears to be a good crop for reducing P. thornei populations, but AM fungal-dependence of subsequent crops should be considered, particularly in the northern Australian grain region.

Geographic and Phenotypic Variation in Heartwood and Essential-Oil Characters in Natural Populations of Santalum austrocaledonicum in Vanuatu.

Phenotypic variation in heartwood and essential-oil characters of Santalum austrocaledonicum was assessed across eleven populations on seven islands of Vanuatu Trees differed significantly in their percentage heartwood cross-sectional area and this varied independently of stem diameter The concentrations of the four major essential-oil constituents (alpha-santalol, beta-santalol. (Z)-beta-curcumen-12-ol, and cis-nuciferol) of alcohol-extracted heartwood exhibited at least tenfold and continuous tree-to-tree variation Commercially important components alpha- and beta-santalol found in individual trees ranged from 0 8-47% and 0-24 1%, respectively, across all populations, and significant (P < 0 05) differences for each were found between Individual populations. The Erromango population was unique in that the mean concentrations of its monocyclic ((Z)-beta-curcumen-12-ol and cis-nuciferol) sesquiterpenes exceeded those of Its bi- and tricyclic (alpha- and beta-santalol) sesquiterpenes Heartwood colour varied between trees and spanned 65 colour categories, but no identifiable relationships were found between heartwood colour and alpha- and beta-santalol, although a weak relationship was evident between colour saturation and total oil concentration These results indicate that the heartwood colour is not a reliable predictive trait for oil quality The results of this study highlight the knowledge gaps in fundamental understanding of heartwood biology in Santalum genus The intraspecific variation in heartwood cross-sectional area. oil concentration. and oil quality traits is of considerable importance to the domestication of sandalwood and present opportunities for the development of highly superior S austrocaledonicum cultivars that conform to the industry's International Standards used for S album.