On the statistical modeling of persistence in total ozone anomalies

Geophysical time series sometimes exhibit serial correlations that are stronger than can be captured by the commonly used first‐order autoregressive model. In this study we demonstrate that a power law statistical model serves as a useful upper bound for the persistence of total ozone anomalies on monthly to interannual timescales. Such a model is usually characterized by the Hurst exponent. We show that the estimation of the Hurst exponent in time series of total ozone is sensitive to various choices made in the statistical analysis, especially whether and how the deterministic (including periodic) signals are filtered from the time series, and the frequency range over which the estimation is made. In particular, care must be taken to ensure that the estimate of the Hurst exponent accurately represents the low‐frequency limit of the spectrum, which is the part that is relevant to long‐term correlations and the uncertainty of estimated trends. Otherwise, spurious results can be obtained. Based on this analysis, and using an updated equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) function, we predict that an increase in total ozone attributable to EESC should be detectable at the 95% confidence level by 2015 at the latest in southern midlatitudes, and by 2020–2025 at the latest over 30°–45°N, with the time to detection increasing rapidly with latitude north of this range.

Forecast, measurement, and modeling of an unprecedented polar ozone filament event over Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

In mid-March 2005 the northern lower stratospheric polar vortex experienced a severe stretching episode, bringing a large polar filament far south of Alaska toward Hawaii. This meridional intrusion of rare extent, coinciding with the polar vortex final warming and breakdown, was followed by a zonal stretching in the wake of the easterly propagating subtropical main flow. This caused polar air to remain over Hawaii for several days before diluting into the subtropics. After being successfully forecasted to pass over Hawaii by the high-resolution potential vorticity advection model Modèle Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection (MIMOSA), the filament was observed on isentropic surfaces between 415 K and 455 K (17–20 km) by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory stratospheric ozone lidar measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, between 16 and 19 March 2005. It was materialized as a thin layer of enhanced ozone peaking at 1.6 ppmv in a region where the climatological values usually average 1.0 ppmv. These values were compared to those obtained by the three-dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model MIMOSA-CHIM. Agreement between lidar and model was excellent, particularly in the similar appearance of the ozone peak near 435 K (18.5 km) on 16 March, and the persistence of this layer at higher isentropic levels for the following three days. Passive ozone, also modeled by MIMOSA-CHIM, was at about 3–4 ppmv inside the filament while above Hawaii. A detailed history of the modeled chemistry inside the filament suggests that the air mass was still polar ozone–depleted when passing over Hawaii. The filament quickly separated from the main vortex after its Hawaiian overpass. It never reconnected and, in less than 10 days, dispersed entirely in the subtropics

Simultaneous lidar and EOS MLS measurements, and modeling, of a rare polar ozone filament event over Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

In mid-March 2005, a rare lower stratospheric polar vortex filamentation event was observed simultaneously by the JPL lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, and by the EOS MLS instrument onboard the Aura satellite. The event coincided with the beginning of the spring 2005 final warming. On 16 March, the filament was observed by lidar around 0600 UT between 415 K and 455 K, and by MLS six hours earlier. It was seen on both the lidar and MLS profiles as a layer of enhanced ozone, peaking at 1.7 ppmv in a region where the climatological values are usually around or below 1 ppmv. Ozone profiles measured by lidar and MLS were compared to profiles from the Chemical Transport Model MIMOSA-CHIM. The agreement between lidar, MLS, and the model is excellent considering the difference in the sampling techniques. MLS was also able to identify the filament at another location north of Hawaii.

Retrieval of sea surface temperature from space based on modeling of infrared radiative transfer: capabilities and limitations

The retrieval (estimation) of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from space-based infrared observations is increasingly performed using retrieval coefficients derived from radiative transfer simulations of top-of-atmosphere brightness temperatures (BTs). Typically, an estimate of SST is formed from a weighted combination of BTs at a few wavelengths, plus an offset. This paper addresses two questions about the radiative transfer modeling approach to deriving these weighting and offset coefficients. How precisely specified do the coefficients need to be in order to obtain the required SST accuracy (e.g., scatter <0.3 K in week-average SST, bias <0.1 K)? And how precisely is it actually possible to specify them using current forward models? The conclusions are that weighting coefficients can be obtained with adequate precision, while the offset coefficient will often require an empirical adjustment of the order of a few tenths of a kelvin against validation data. Thus, a rational approach to defining retrieval coefficients is one of radiative transfer modeling followed by offset adjustment. The need for this approach is illustrated from experience in defining SST retrieval schemes for operational meteorological satellites. A strategy is described for obtaining the required offset adjustment, and the paper highlights some of the subtler aspects involved with reference to the example of SST retrievals from the imager on the geostationary satellite GOES-8.

Analysis and modeling of active occupancy of the residential sector in Spain: an indicator of residential electricity consumption

The growing energy consumption in the residential sector represents about 30% of global demand. This calls for Demand Side Management solutions propelling change in behaviors of end consumers, with the aim to reduce overall consumption as well as shift it to periods in which demand is lower and where the cost of generating energy is lower. Demand Side Management solutions require detailed knowledge about the patterns of energy consumption. The profile of electricity demand in the residential sector is highly correlated with the time of active occupancy of the dwellings; therefore in this study the occupancy patterns in Spanish properties was determined using the 2009–2010 Time Use Survey (TUS), conducted by the National Statistical Institute of Spain. The survey identifies three peaks in active occupancy, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. This information has been used to input into a stochastic model which generates active occupancy profiles of dwellings, with the aim to simulate domestic electricity consumption. TUS data were also used to identify which appliance-related activities could be considered for Demand Side Management solutions during the three peaks of occupancy.

Inverse modeling of the 14C bomb pulse in stalagmites to constrain the dynamics of soil carbon cycling at selected European cave sites

The decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is temperature dependent, but its response to a future warmer climate remains equivocal. Enhanced rates of decomposition of SOM under increased global temperatures might cause higher CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, and could therefore constitute a strong positive feedback. The magnitude of this feedback however remains poorly understood, primarily because of the difficulty in quantifying the temperature sensitivity of stored, recalcitrant carbon that comprises the bulk (>90%) of SOM in most soils. In this study we investigated the effects of climatic conditions on soil carbon dynamics using the attenuation of the 14C ‘bomb’ pulse as recorded in selected modern European speleothems. These new data were combined with published results to further examine soil carbon dynamics, and to explore the sensitivity of labile and recalcitrant organic matter decomposition to different climatic conditions. Temporal changes in 14C activity inferred from each speleothem was modelled using a three pool soil carbon inverse model (applying a Monte Carlo method) to constrain soil carbon turnover rates at each site. Speleothems from sites that are characterised by semi-arid conditions, sparse vegetation, thin soil cover and high mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), exhibit weak attenuation of atmospheric 14C ‘bomb’ peak (a low damping effect, D in the range: 55–77%) and low modelled mean respired carbon ages (MRCA), indicating that decomposition is dominated by young, recently fixed soil carbon. By contrast, humid and high MAAT sites that are characterised by a thick soil cover and dense, well developed vegetation, display the highest damping effect (D = c. 90%), and the highest MRCA values (in the range from 350 ± 126 years to 571 ± 128 years). This suggests that carbon incorporated into these stalagmites originates predominantly from decomposition of old, recalcitrant organic matter. SOM turnover rates cannot be ascribed to a single climate variable, e.g. (MAAT) but instead reflect a complex interplay of climate (e.g. MAAT and moisture budget) and vegetation development.

Analysis and modeling of Diacamma workers’ behavior

It is well-known that social insects such as ants show interesting collective behaviors. How do they organize such behaviors? To expand understanding of collective behaviors of social insects, we focused on ants, Diacamma, and analyzed the behavior of a few individuals. In an experimental set-up, ants are placed in hemisphere without a nest and food and the trajectory of ants is recorded. From this bottom-up approach, we found following characteristics: 1. Activity of individuals increases and decreases periodically. 2. Spontaneous meeting process is observed between two ants and meeting spot of two ants is localized in the experimental field.

TOWARD UNDERSTANDING THE B[e] PHENOMENON. IV. MODELING OF IRAS 00470+6429

FS CMa type stars are a recently described group of objects with the B[e] phenomenon which exhibits strong emission-line spectra and strong IR excesses. In this paper, we report the first attempt for a detailed modeling of IRAS 00470+6429, for which we have the best set of observations. Our modeling is based on two key assumptions: the star has a main-sequence luminosity for its spectral type (B2) and the circumstellar (CS) envelope is bimodal, composed of a slowly outflowing disklike wind and a fast polar wind. Both outflows are assumed to be purely radial. We adopt a novel approach to describe the dust formation site in the wind that employs timescale arguments for grain condensation and a self-consistent solution for the dust destruction surface. With the above assumptions we were able to satisfactorily reproduce many observational properties of IRAS 00470+6429, including the Hi line profiles and the overall shape of the spectral energy distribution. Our adopted recipe for dust formation proved successful in reproducing the correct amount of dust formed in the CS envelope. Possible shortcomings of our model, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are discussed.

Alternative diagnostic diagrams and the `forgotten` population of weak line galaxies in the SDSS

A numerous population of weak line galaxies (WLGs) is often left out of statistical studies on emission-line galaxies (ELGs) due to the absence of an adequate classification scheme, since classical diagnostic diagrams, such as [O iii]/H beta versus [N ii]/H alpha (the BPT diagram), require the measurement of at least four emission lines. This paper aims to remedy this situation by transposing the usual divisory lines between star-forming (SF) galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) hosts and between Seyferts and LINERs to diagrams that are more economical in terms of line quality requirements. By doing this, we rescue from the classification limbo a substantial number of sources and modify the global census of ELGs. More specifically, (1) we use the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 to constitute a suitable sample of 280 000 ELGs, one-third of which are WLGs. (2) Galaxies with strong emission lines are classified using the widely applied criteria of Kewley et al., Kauffmann et al. and Stasinska et al. to distinguish SF galaxies and AGN hosts and Kewley et al. to distinguish Seyferts from LINERs. (3) We transpose these classification schemes to alternative diagrams keeping [N ii]/H alpha as a horizontal axis, but replacing H beta by a stronger line (H alpha or [O ii]), or substituting the ionization-level sensitive [O iii]/H beta ratio with the equivalent width of H alpha (W(H alpha)). Optimized equations for the transposed divisory lines are provided. (4) We show that nothing significant is lost in the translation, but that the new diagrams allow one to classify up to 50 per cent more ELGs. (5) Introducing WLGs in the census of galaxies in the local Universe increases the proportion of metal-rich SF galaxies and especially LINERs. In the course of this analysis, we were led to make the following points. (i) The Kewley et al. BPT line for galaxy classification is generally ill-used. (ii) Replacing [O iii]/H beta by W(H alpha) in the classification introduces a change in the philosophy of the distinction between LINERs and Seyferts, but not in its results. Because the W(H alpha) versus [N ii]/H alpha diagram can be applied to the largest sample of ELGs without loss of discriminating power between Seyferts and LINERs, we recommend its use in further studies. (iii) The dichotomy between Seyferts and LINERs is washed out by WLGs in the BPT plane, but it subsists in other diagnostic diagrams. This suggests that the right wing in the BPT diagram is indeed populated by at least two classes, tentatively identified with bona fide AGN and `retired` galaxies that have stopped forming stars and are ionized by their old stellar populations.

Spectral analysis and modeling of microcyclostratigraphy in late Paleozoic glaciogenic rhythmites, Parana Basin, Brazil

We investigate the depositional time scale of lithological couplets (fine sandstone/siltstone-siltstone/mudstone) from two distinctive outcrops of Permo-Carboniferous glacial rhythmites in the Itarare Group (Parana Basin, Brazil). Resolving the fundamental issue of time scale for these rhythmites is important in light of recent evidence for paleosecular variation measured in these sequences. Spectral analysis and tuning of high-resolution gray scale scans of sediment core microstratigraphy, which comprises pervasive laminations, reveal a comparable spectral content at both localities, with a frequency suite interpreted as that of short-term climate variability of Recent and modern times. This evidence for decadal- to centennial-scale deposition of these lithological couplets is discussed in light of the `varvic` character, i.e., annual time scale that was previously assumed for the rhythmites.