Assessment of the sublethal toxicity of organochlorine pesticide endosulfan in juvenile common carp (Cyprinus carpio)

This study is aimed at evaluating the sublethal effects of endosulfan (EDS) in juvenile common carp (Cyprinus carpio). For this purpose, fish were exposed for 15 days to the technical EDS (95% pure) diluted in dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) 0.1% of the total volume in water solution in a semi-static system at sublethal concentration (1 mu g/L). Subsequently, the liver somatic index (LSI) and factor condition (K) were determined. The total cytocrome P450 (CYP), CYP1A isoform, and the ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity were determined from the hepatic microsomal fraction as well as the activity of the oxidative stress enzyme system such as superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione-S-transferase (GST), glutathione peroxidase (GP(X)), glutathione reductase (GR), and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH). Among the parameters assessed, EDS at the sublethal concentration in subchronic exposure caused significant changes in liver somatic indices as well as induction of the phase I biotransformation system and oxidative stress in juvenile common carp (Cyprinus carpio). Thus, it is seen that the use of biochemical biomarkers of environmental contamination in this study proved to be an extremely important tool for detecting the adverse effects of xenobiotics in the aquatic environment, even at low concentration.

The impact of atmospheric particulate matter on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of S��o Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to verify the impact of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of S��o Paulo, Brazil. Statistical techniques were used to investigate the relationship between PM10 on cancer incidence and mortality in selected districts. For some types of cancer (skin, lung, thyroid, larynx, and bladder) and some periods, the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.60 to 0.80 for incidence. Lung cancer mortality showed more correlations during the overall period. Spatial analysis showed that districts distant from the city center showed higher than expected relative risk, depending on the type of cancer. According to the study, urban PM10 can contribute to increased incidence of some cancers and may also contribute to increased cancer mortality. The results highlight the need to adopt measures to reduce atmospheric PM10 levels and the importance of their continuous monitoring.

Characterization of ozone transport among metropolitan regions

The aim of this work is to determine the interaction in terms of ozone transport between two metropolitan regions of S��o Paulo State: The Metropolitan Region of Campinas (MRC) and Metropolitan Region of S��o Paulo (MRSP), with different characteristics and dimensions. In order to describe the interaction between both regions, 3-D Eulerian photochemical CIT model was used with a new approach for S��o Paulo regions since most previous studies deal with individual areas considering the contribution of other areas only as boundary conditions. The results from the photochemical simulations showed that the ozone concentration in the MRC is associated to local emissions and the transport of ozone and its precursors from the MRSP, demonstrating the significant impact of a megacity in its neighborhood and the importance of meteorological and topography conditions in the transport of air pollutants from the local source to distant regions.

Sviluppo di tecniche per la progettazione delle reti di monitoraggio della qualita' dell'aria

L���obiettivo del lavoro consiste nell���implementare una metodologia operativa volta alla progettazione di reti di monitoraggio e di campagne di misura della qualit�� dell���aria con l���utilizzo del laboratorio mobile, ottimizzando le posizioni dei dispositivi di campionamento rispetto a differenti obiettivi e criteri di scelta. La revisione e l���analisi degli approcci e delle indicazioni fornite dalla normativa di riferimento e dai diversi autori di lavori scientifici ha permesso di proporre un approccio metodologico costituito da due fasi operative principali, che �� stato applicato ad un caso studio rappresentato dal territorio della provincia di Ravenna. La metodologia implementata prevede l���integrazione di numerosi strumenti di supporto alla valutazione dello stato di qualit�� dell���aria e degli effetti che gli inquinanti atmosferici possono generare su specifici recettori sensibili (popolazione residente, vegetazione, beni materiali). In particolare, la metodologia integra approcci di disaggregazione degli inventari delle emissioni attraverso l���utilizzo di variabili proxy, strumenti modellistici per la simulazione della dispersione degli inquinanti in atmosfera ed algoritmi di allocazione degli strumenti di monitoraggio attraverso la massimizzazione (o minimizzazione) di specifiche funzioni obiettivo. La procedura di allocazione sviluppata �� stata automatizzata attraverso lo sviluppo di un software che, mediante un���interfaccia grafica di interrogazione, consente di identificare delle aree ottimali per realizzare le diverse campagne di monitoraggio

Polyphenylendendrimere zur Gefahrstoffdetektion

Zusammenfassung: rnrn Die vorliegende Arbeit mit dem Thema ���Polyphenylendendrimere zur Gefahrstoffdetektion��� ist haupts��chlich synthetisch orientiert und behandelt vor allem den Aufbau neuartiger innenfunktionalisierter Polyphenylendendrimer-Systeme durch die systematische Anwendung wiederholter Diels-Alder- bzw. Desilylierungs-Reaktionen. Diskutiert wird dabei die Synthese der daf��r notwendigen Verzweigungsbausteine, die daraus hervorgehende Darstellung der verschiedenen Dendrimere sowie deren Charakterisierung. Als Referenz zu den monodispersen dendritischen Systemen werden parallel verschiedene hyperverzweigte Polymere mittels Diels-Alder-Reaktion bzw. Suzuki-Kupplung dargestellt und beide Makromolek��l-Systeme im direkten Vergleich besprochen. Erstmals wird die Einbindung funktioneller Elemente, wie z.B. Triazol oder Pyren, synthetisch erm��glicht. Die dendritischen Systeme werden bis zur dritten Generation aufgebaut, im Fall des Ester-funktionalisierten Systems wird auch eine Darstellung der vierten Generation erreicht. Im Anschluss wird das supramolekulare Verhalten der erhaltenen dendritischen, wie auch polymeren Verbindungen mittels zweier unterschiedlicher Me��methoden (QMB, ITC) gegen��ber verschiedenen L��sungsmitteln und Gefahrstoffen untersucht. Dabei kann eine Diskrepanz im Einlagerungsverhalten der verschiedenen makromolekularen Strukturen gegen��ber den verwendeten Gast-Molek��len beobachtet werden. Aufgrund der umfassenden systematischen Analyse aller getesteten Verbindungen wird ein tiefer greifendes Verst��ndnis f��r die w��hrend des Einlagerungsprozesses verantwortlichen Wechselwirkungen aufgebaut. Dabei spielt die dreidimensionale Anordnung des dendritischen Ger��sts, resultierend aus der Polarit��t und dem sterischen Anspruch der eingebundenen funktionellen Gruppen eine entscheidende Rolle. Als Anwendungsbeispiel der dendritischen Strukturen wird die Verwendung eigens beschichteter Schwingquarze zur Detektion von Sprengstoffen, wie z. B. TATP, erl��utert und eine daraus resultierende Steigerung der Sensibilit��t der Detektoren erkl��rt.rn

Processi integrati per l���intensificazione di processo: reazione di fotocatalisi accoppiata alla pervaporazione, la dialisi e all���ozonizzazione

L���accoppiamento di diverse operazioni unitarie pu�� in certi casi portare ad una cosiddetta ���intensificazione di processo���, cio�� ad un aumento sostanziale delle rese, dell���efficienza e della sostenibilit��. Nel presente lavoro sono state pertanto analizzate le potenzialit�� di accoppiamento della fotocatalisi, il pi�� studiato tra i ���processi di ossidazione avanzata���, sia con alcuni processi a membrana per la sintesi verde di aromi sia con l���ozonizzazione per la depurazione di acque. �� stato dimostrato che in entrambi i casi l���ottenimento di una significativa intensificazione di processo dipende in gran parte dai parametri operativi, in particolare dal rapporto, delta, tra la velocit�� caratteristica di fotocatalisi e quella del processo accoppiato. Nel caso della sintesi di aromi, in cui la fotocatalisi viene accoppiata con la pervaporazione o con la dialisi ricircolando al reattore il retentato dalla cella con la membrana. Il parametro delta dipende dalla velocit�� di reazione, dalle propriet�� di trasporto delle membrane e naturalmente dal volume del rettore e dall���area della membrana. La reazione fotocatalitica produce l���aroma, ad esempio vanillina da acido ferulico, per ossidazione parziale e grazie al recupero del prodotto se ne evita l���ulteriore ossidazione aumentandone pertanto la resa. L���operare in apparati separati offre diversi vantaggi come la possibilit�� di variare senza vincoli il rapporto tra area della membrana e volume del reattore, ma impone di considerare anche il grado effettivo di accoppiamento dei processi. In questo caso, come evidenziato dal modello matematico, un sufficientemente elevato rapporto di ricircolo consente comunque di integrare efficacemente i processi. Nell���ozonizzazione fotocatalitica si hanno due importanti vantaggi: l���aumento della velocit�� di degradazione grazie alla sinergia tra i processi e la capacit�� di controllare la formazione di prodotti pericolosi. La sinergia viene massimizzata ad un valore ottimale di delta, mentre la formazione dei prodotti indesiderati viene controllata operando secondo le procedure che sono state individuate.

Biochar characterization for its environmental and agricultural utilization. Occurrence, distribution and fate of labile organic carbon and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

In this thesis the potential risks associated to the application of biochar in soil as well the stability of biochar were investigated. The study was focused on the potential risks arising from the occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in biochar. An analytical method was developed for the determination of the 16 USEPA-PAHs in the original biochar and soil containing biochar. The method was successfully validated with a certified reference material for the soil matrix and compared with methods in use in other laboratories during a laboratory exercise within the EU-COST TD1107. The concentration of 16 USEPA-PAHs along with the 15 EU-PAHs, priority hazardous substances in food, was determined in a suite of currently available biochars for agricultural field applications derived from a variety of parent materials and pyrolysis conditions. Biochars analyzed contained the USEPA and some of the EU-PAHs at detectable levels ranging from 1.2 to 19 ��g g-1. This method allowed investigating changes in PAH content and distribution in a four years study following biochar addition in soils in a vineyard (CNR-IBIMET). The results showed that biochar addition determined an increase of the amount of PAHs. However, the levels of PAHs in the soil remained within the maximum acceptable concentration for European countries. The vineyard soil performed by CNR-IBIMET was exploited to study the environmental stability of biochar and its impact on soil organic carbon. The stability of biochar was investigated by analytical pyrolysis (Py-GC-MS) and pyrolysis in the presence of hydrogen (HyPy). The findings showed that biochar amendment significantly influence soil stable carbon fraction concentration during the incubation period. Moreover, HyPy and Py-GC-MS were applied to biochars deriving from three different feedstock at two different pyrolysis temperatures. The results evidenced the influence of feedstock type and pyrolysis conditions on the degree of carbonisation.

Translocation and potential neurological effects of fine and ultrafine particles a critical update

ABSTRACT: Particulate air pollution has been associated with respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Evidence for cardiovascular and neurodegenerative effects of ambient particles was reviewed as part of a workshop. The purpose of this critical update is to summarize the evidence presented for the mechanisms involved in the translocation of particles from the lung to other organs and to highlight the potential of particles to cause neurodegenerative effects.Fine and ultrafine particles, after deposition on the surfactant film at the air-liquid interface, are displaced by surface forces exerted on them by surfactant film and may then interact with primary target cells upon this displacement. Ultrafine and fine particles can then penetrate through the different tissue compartments of the lungs and eventually reach the capillaries and circulating cells or constituents, e.g. erythrocytes. These particles are then translocated by the circulation to other organs including the liver, the spleen, the kidneys, the heart and the brain, where they may be deposited. It remains to be shown by which mechanisms ultrafine particles penetrate through pulmonary tissue and enter capillaries. In addition to translocation of ultrafine particles through the tissue, fine and coarse particles may be phagocytized by macrophages and dendritic cells which may carry the particles to lymph nodes in the lung or to those closely associated with the lungs. There is the potential for neurodegenerative consequence of particle entry to the brain. Histological evidence of neurodegeneration has been reported in both canine and human brains exposed to high ambient PM levels, suggesting the potential for neurotoxic consequences of PM-CNS entry. PM mediated damage may be caused by the oxidative stress pathway. Thus, oxidative stress due to nutrition, age, genetics among others may increase the susceptibility for neurodegenerative diseases. The relationship between PM exposure and CNS degeneration can also be detected under controlled experimental conditions. Transgenic mice (Apo E -/-), known to have high base line levels of oxidative stress, were exposed by inhalation to well characterized, concentrated ambient air pollution. Morphometric analysis of the CNS indicated unequivocally that the brain is a critical target for PM exposure and implicated oxidative stress as a predisposing factor that links PM exposure and susceptibility to neurodegeneration.Together, these data present evidence for potential translocation of ambient particles on organs distant from the lung and the neurodegenerative consequences of exposure to air pollutants.

SUPERFUND: AN ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTATION FAILURE (CERCLA, HEALTH LAW POLICY)

In December, 1980, following increasing congressional and constituent-interest in problems associated with hazardous waste, the Comprehensive Environmental Recovery, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) was passed. During its development, the legislative initiative was seriously compromised which resulted in a less exhaustive approach than was formerly sought. Still, CERCLA (Superfund) which established, among other things, authority to clean up abandoned waste dumps and to respond to emergencies caused by releases of hazardous substances was welcomed by many as an important initial law critical to the cleanup of the nation's hazardous waste. Expectations raised by passage of this bill were tragically unmet. By the end of four years, only six sites had been declared by the EPA as cleaned. Seemingly, even those determinations were liberal; of the six sites, two were identified subsequently as requiring further cleanup.^ This analysis is focused upon the implementation failure of the Superfund. In light of that focus, discussion encompasses development of linkages between flaws in the legislative language and foreclosure of chances for implementation success. Specification of such linkages is achieved through examination of the legislative initiative, identification of its flaws and characterization of attendant deficits in implementation ability. Subsequent analysis is addressed to how such legislative frailities might have been avoided and to attendant regulatory weaknesses which have contributed to implementation failure. Each of these analyses are accomplished through application of an expanded approach to the backward mapping analytic technique as presented by Elmore. Results and recommendations follow.^ Consideration is devoted to a variety of regulatory issues as well as to those pertinent to legislative and implementation analysis. Problems in assessing legal liability associated with hazardous waste management are presented, as is a detailed review of the legislative development of Superfund, and its initial implementation by Gorsuch's EPA. ^

Impact of traffic pollution on telomere length and chronic diseases: Results from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis and the Mexican-American cohort study

Exposure to air pollutants in urban locales has been associated with increased risk for chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and pulmonary diseases in epidemiological studies. The exact mechanism explaining how air pollution affects chronic disease is still unknown. However, oxidative stress and inflammatory pathways have been posited as likely mechanisms. ^ Data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Mexican-American Cohort Study (2003-2009) were used to examine the following aims, respectively: 1) to evaluate the association between long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) (PM10 and PM2.5) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) and telomere length (TL) among approximately 1,000 participants within MESA; and 2) to evaluate the association between traffic-related air pollution with self-reported asthma, diabetes, and hypertension among Mexican-Americans in Houston, Texas. ^ Our results from MESA were inconsistent regarding associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and shorter telomere length based on whether the participants came from New York (NY) or Los Angeles (LA). Although not statistically significant, we observed a negative association between long-term air pollution exposure and mean telomere length for NY participants, which was consistent with our hypothesis. Positive (statistically insignificant) associations were observed for LA participants. It is possible that our findings were more influenced by both outcome and exposure misclassification than by the absence of a relationship between pollution and TL. Future studies are needed that include longitudinal measures of telomere length as well as focus on effects of specific constituents of PM and other pollutant exposures on changes in telomere length over time. ^ This research provides support that Mexican-American adults who live near a major roadway or in close proximity to a dense street network have a higher prevalence of asthma. There was a non-significant trend towards an increased prevalence of adult asthma with increasing residential traffic exposure especially for residents who lived three or more years at their baseline address. Even though the prevalence of asthma is low in the Mexican-origin population, it is the fastest growing minority group in the U.S. and we would expect a growing number of Mexican-Americans who suffer from asthma in the future. Future studies are needed to better characterize risks for asthma associated with air pollution in this population.^

Pediatric asthma incidence in Texas and associations with ambient ozone levels in an urban area an analysis using Medicaid claims data

Few recent estimates of childhood asthma incidence exist in the literature, although the importance of incidence surveillance for understanding asthma risk factors has been recognized. Asthma prevalence, morbidity and mortality reports have repeatedly shown that low-income children are disproportionately impacted by the disease. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of Medicaid claims data for providing statewide estimates of asthma incidence. Medicaid Analytic Extract (MAX) data for Texas children ages 0-17 enrolled in Medicaid between 2004 and 2007 were used to estimate incidence overall and by age group, gender, race and county of residence. A 13+ month period of continuous enrollment was required in order to distinguish incident from prevalent cases identified in the claims data. Age-adjusted incidence of asthma was 4.26/100 person-years during 2005-2007, higher than reported in other populations. Incidence rates decreased with age, were higher for males than females, differed by race, and tended to be higher in rural than urban areas. With this study, we were able to demonstrate the utility of MAX data for estimating asthma incidence, and create a dataset of incident cases to use in further analysis. ^ In subsequent analyses, we investigated a possible association between ambient air pollutants and incident asthma among Medicaid-enrolled children in Harris County Texas between 2005 and 2007. This population is at high risk for asthma, and living in an area with historically poor air quality. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios, adjusted for weather variables and aeroallergens, to assess the effect of increases in ozone, NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations on risk of developing asthma. Our results show that a 10 ppb increase in ozone was significantly associated with asthma during the warm season (May-October), with the strongest effect seen when a 6-day cumulative lag period was used to compute the exposure metric (OR=1.05, 95% CI, 1.02���1.08). Similar results were seen for NO2 and PM 2.5 (OR=1.07, 95% CI, 1.03���1.11 and OR=1.12, 95% CI, 1.03���1.22, respectively). PM2.5 also had significant effects in the cold season (November-April), 5-day cumulative lag: OR=1.11, 95% CI, 1.00���1.22. When compared with children in the lowest quartile of O3 exposure, the risk for children in the highest quartile was 20% higher. This study indicates that these pollutants are associated with newly-diagnosed childhood asthma in this low-income urban population, particularly during the summer months. ^

Ozone and fine particulate matter association with CVD and COPD emergency room visits in Harris County, Texas: Spatiotemporal analysis

This study represents a secondary analysis of the merging of emergency room visits and daily ozone and PM2.5. Although the adverse health effects of ozone and fine particulate matter have been documented in the literature, evidence regarding the health risks of these two pollutants in Harris County, Texas, is limited. Harris County (Houston) has sufficiently unique characteristics that analysis of these relationships in this setting and with the ozone and industry issues in Houston is informative. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between the joint exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter, and emergency room diagnoses of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cardiovascular disease in Harris County, Texas, from 2004 to 2009, with zero and one day lags. ^ The study variables were daily emergency room visits for Harris County, Texas, from 2004 to 2009, temperature, relative humidity, east wind component, north wind component, ozone, and fine particulate matter. Information about each patient's age, race, and gender was also included. The two dichotomous outcomes were emergency room visits diagnoses for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cardiovascular disease. Estimates of ozone and PM2.5 were interpolated using kriging, in which estimates of the two pollutants were predicted from monitoring data for every case residence zip code for every day of the six years, over 3 million estimates (one of each pollutant for each case in the database). ^ Logistic regressions were conducted to estimate odds ratios of the two outcomes. Three analyses were conducted: one for all records, another for visits during the four months of April and September of 2005 and 2009, and a third one for visits from zip codes that are close to PM2.5 monitoring stations (east area of Harris County). The last two analyses were designed to investigate special temporal and spatial characteristics of the associations. ^ The dataset included all ER visits surveyed by Safety Net from 2004 to 2009, exceeding 3 million visits for all causes. There were 95,765 COPD and 96,596 CVD cases during this six year period. A 1-��g/m3 increase in PM2.5 on the same day was associated with a 1.0% increase in the odds of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease emergency room diagnoses, a 0.4% increase in the odds of cardiovascular disease emergency room diagnoses, and a 0.2% increase in the odds of cardiovascular disease emergency room diagnoses on the following day. A 1-ppb increase in ozone was associated with a 0.1% increase in the odds of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease emergency room diagnoses on the same day. These four percentages add up to 1.7% of ER visits. That is, over the period of six years, one unit increase for both ozone and PM2.5 (joint increase), resulted in about 55,286 (3,252,102 * 0.017) extra ER visits for CVD or COPD, or 9,214 extra ER visits per year. ^ After adjustment for age, race, gender, day of the week, temperature, relative humidity, east wind component, north wind component, and wind speed, there were statistically significant associations between emergency room chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis in Harris County, Texas, with joint exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter for the same day; and between emergency room cardiovascular disease diagnosis and exposure to PM2.5 of the same day and the previous day. ^ Despite the small association between the two air pollutants and the health outcomes, this study points to important findings. Namely, the need to identify reasons for the increase of CVD and COPD ER visits over the course of the project, the statistical association between humidity (or whatever other variables for which it may serve as a surrogate) and CVD and COPD cases, and the confirmatory finding that males and blacks have higher odds for the two outcomes, as consistent with other studies. ^ An important finding of this research suggests that the number and distribution of PM2.5 monitors in Harris County - although not evenly spaced geographically���are adequate to detect significant association between exposure and the two outcomes. In addition, this study points to other potential factors that contribute to the rising incidence rates of CVD and COPD ER visits in Harris County such as population increases, patient history, life style, and other pollutants. Finally, results of validation, using a subset of the data demonstrate the robustness of the models.^

Abundance of mesozooplankton in the western part of the Black Sea in summer 2005 during Phase 2: Leg1 from the GEF Project

The sampling area was extended to the Western-South area off the Black Sea coast from Kaliakra cape toward the Bosforous. Samples were collected along four transects. The whole dataset is composed of 17 samples (from 10 stations) with data of mesozooplankton species composition abundance and biomass. Sampling for zooplankton was performed from bottom up to the surface at depths depending on water column stratification and the thermocline depth. These data are organized in the "Control of eutrophication, hazardous substances and related measures for rehabilitating the Black Sea ecosystem: Phase 2: Leg I: PIMS 3065". Data Report is not published. Zooplankton samples were collected with vertical closing Juday net,diameter - 36cm, mesh size 150 ��m. Tows were performed from surface down to bottom meters depths in discrete layers. Samples were preserved by a 4% formaldehyde sea water buffered solution. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Mesozooplankton abundance: The collected material was analysed using the method of Domov (1959). Samples were brought to volume of 25-30 ml depending upon zooplankton density and mixed intensively until all organisms were distributed randomly in the sample volume. After that 5 ml of sample was taken and poured in the counting chamber which is a rectangle form for taxomomic identification and count. Large (> 1 mm body length) and not abundant species were calculated in whole sample. Counting and measuring of organisms were made in the Dimov chamber under the stereomicroscope to the lowest taxon possible. Taxonomic identification was done at the Institute of Oceanology by Kremena Stefanova using the relevant taxonomic literature (Mordukhay-Boltovskoy, F.D. (Ed.). 1968, 1969,1972). Taxon-specific abundance: The collected material was analysed using the method of Domov (1959). Samples were brought to volume of 25-30 ml depending upon zooplankton density and mixed intensively until all organisms were distributed randomly in the sample volume. After that 5 ml of sample was taken and poured in the counting chamber which is a rectangle form for taxomomic identification and count. Copepods and Cladoceras were identified and enumerated; the other mesozooplankters were identified and enumerated at higher taxonomic level (commonly named as mesozooplankton groups). Large (> 1 mm body length) and not abundant species were calculated in whole sample. Counting and measuring of organisms were made in the Dimov chamber under the stereomicroscope to the lowest taxon possible. Taxonomic identification was done at the Institute of Oceanology by Kremena Stefanova using the relevant taxonomic literature (Mordukhay-Boltovskoy, F.D. (Ed.). 1968, 1969,1972).

Aplicaci��n de t��cnicas de inteligencia artificial a la predicci��n de contaminantes atmosf��ricos

Abstract Air pollution is a big threat and a phenomenon that has a specific impact on human health, in addition, changes that occur in the chemical composition of the atmosphere can change the weather and cause acid rain or ozone destruction. Those are phenomena of global importance. The World Health Organization (WHO) considerates air pollution as one of the most important global priorities. Salamanca, Gto., Mexico has been ranked as one of the most polluted cities in this country. The industry of the area led to a major economic development and rapid population growth in the second half of the twentieth century. The impact in the air quality is important and significant efforts have been made to measure the concentrations of pollutants. The main pollution sources are locally based plants in the chemical and power generation sectors. The registered concerning pollutants are Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) and particles on the order of ���10 micrometers or less (PM10). The prediction in the concentration of those pollutants can be a powerful tool in order to take preventive measures such as the reduction of emissions and alerting the affected population. In this PhD thesis we propose a model to predict concentrations of pollutants SO2 and PM10 for each monitoring booth in the Atmospheric Monitoring Network Salamanca (REDMAS - for its spanish acronym). The proposed models consider the use of meteorological variables as factors influencing the concentration of pollutants. The information used along this work is the current real data from REDMAS. In the proposed model, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with clustering algorithms are used. The type of ANN used is the Multilayer Perceptron with a hidden layer, using separate structures for the prediction of each pollutant. The meteorological variables used for prediction were: Wind Direction (WD), wind speed (WS), Temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). Clustering algorithms, K-means and Fuzzy C-means, are used to find relationships between air pollutants and weather variables under consideration, which are added as input of the RNA. Those relationships provide information to the ANN in order to obtain the prediction of the pollutants. The results of the model proposed in this work are compared with the results of a multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The evaluation of the prediction is calculated with the mean absolute error, the root mean square error, the correlation coefficient and the index of agreement. The results show the importance of meteorological variables in the prediction of the concentration of the pollutants SO2 and PM10 in the city of Salamanca, Gto., Mexico. The results show that the proposed model perform better than multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The models implemented for each monitoring booth have the ability to make predictions of air quality that can be used in a system of real-time forecasting and human health impact analysis. Among the main results of the development of this thesis we can cite: A model based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms for prediction with a hour ahead of the concentration of each pollutant (SO2 and PM10) is proposed. A different model was designed for each pollutant and for each of the three monitoring booths of the REDMAS. A model to predict the average of pollutant concentration in the next 24 hours of pollutants SO2 and PM10 is proposed, based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms. Model was designed for each booth of the REDMAS and each pollutant separately. Resumen La contaminaci��n atmosf��rica es una amenaza aguda, constituye un fen��meno que tiene particular incidencia sobre la salud del hombre. Los cambios que se producen en la composici��n qu��mica de la atm��sfera pueden cambiar el clima, producir lluvia ��cida o destruir el ozono, fen��menos todos ellos de una gran importancia global. La Organizaci��n Mundial de la Salud (OMS) considera la contaminaci��n atmosf��rica como una de las m��s importantes prioridades mundiales. Salamanca, Gto., M��xico; ha sido catalogada como una de las ciudades m��s contaminadas en este pa��s. La industria de la zona propici�� un importante desarrollo econ��mico y un crecimiento acelerado de la poblaci��n en la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Las afectaciones en el aire son graves y se han hecho importantes esfuerzos por medir las concentraciones de los contaminantes. Las principales fuentes de contaminaci��n son fuentes fijas como industrias qu��micas y de generaci��n el��ctrica. Los contaminantes que se han registrado como preocupantes son el Bi��xido de Azufre (SO2) y las Part��culas Menores a 10 micr��metros (PM10). La predicci��n de las concentraciones de estos contaminantes puede ser una potente herramienta que permita tomar medidas preventivas como reducci��n de emisiones a la atm��sfera y alertar a la poblaci��n afectada. En la presente tesis doctoral se propone un modelo de predicci��n de concentraci ��n de los contaminantes m��s cr��ticos SO2 y PM10 para cada caseta de monitorizaci��n de la Red de Monitorizaci��n Atmosf��rica de Salamanca (REDMAS). Los modelos propuestos plantean el uso de las variables meteorol ��gicas como factores que influyen en la concentraci��n de los contaminantes. La informaci��n utilizada durante el desarrollo de este trabajo corresponde a datos reales obtenidos de la REDMAS. En el Modelo Propuesto (MP) se aplican Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) combinadas con algoritmos de agrupamiento. La RNA utilizada es el Perceptr��n Multicapa con una capa oculta, utilizando estructuras independientes para la predicci��n de cada contaminante. Las variables meteorol��gicas disponibles para realizar la predicci��n fueron: Direcci��n de Viento (DV), Velocidad de Viento (VV), Temperatura (T) y Humedad Relativa (HR). Los algoritmos de agrupamiento K-means y Fuzzy C-means son utilizados para encontrar relaciones existentes entre los contaminantes atmosf��ricos en estudio y las variables meteorol��gicas. Dichas relaciones aportan informaci��n a las RNA para obtener la predicci��n de los contaminantes, la cual es agregada como entrada de las RNA. Los resultados del modelo propuesto en este trabajo son comparados con los resultados de una Regresi��n Lineal Multivariable (RLM) y un Perceptr��n Multicapa (MLP). La evaluaci��n de la predicci��n se realiza con el Error Medio Absoluto, la Ra��z del Error Cuadr��tico Medio, el coeficiente de correlaci��n y el ��ndice de acuerdo. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la importancia de las variables meteorol��gicas en la predicci��n de la concentraci��n de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 en la ciudad de Salamanca, Gto., M��xico. Los resultados muestran que el MP predice mejor la concentraci��n de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 que los modelos RLM y MLP. Los modelos implementados para cada caseta de monitorizaci ��n tienen la capacidad para realizar predicciones de calidad del aire, estos modelos pueden ser implementados en un sistema que permita realizar la predicci��n en tiempo real y analizar el impacto en la salud de la poblaci��n. Entre los principales resultados obtenidos del desarrollo de esta tesis podemos citar: Se propone un modelo basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento para la predicci��n con una hora de anticipaci ��n de la concentraci��n de cada contaminante (SO2 y PM10). Se dise���� un modelo diferente para cada contaminante y para cada una de las tres casetas de monitorizaci��n de la REDMAS. Se propone un modelo de predicci��n del promedio de la concentraci��n de las pr��ximas 24 horas de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10, basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento. Se dise���� un modelo para cada caseta de monitorizaci��n de la REDMAS y para cada contaminante por separado.