Economic growth and suicide rate changes : a case in China from 1982 to 2005

It is to estimate the trend of suicide rate changes during the past three decades in China and try to identify its social and economic correlates. Official data of suicide rates and economic indexes during 1982–2005 from Shandong Province of China were analyzed. The suicide data were categorized for the rural / urban location and gender, and the economic indexes include GDP, GDP per capita, rural income, and urban income, all adjusted for inflation. We found a significant increase of economic development and decrease of suicide rates over the past decades under study. The suicide rate decrease is correlated with the tremendous growth of economy. The unusual decrease of Chinese suicide rates in the past decades is accounted for within the Chinese cultural contexts and maybe by the Strain Theory of Suicide.

Adaptive bilateral filtering using saliency map for deblocking low bit rate videos

This paper proposes a novel approach to video deblocking which performs perceptually adaptive bilateral filtering by considering color, intensity, and motion features in a holistic manner. The method is based on bilateral filter which is an effective smoothing filter that preserves edges. The bilateral filter parameters are adaptive and avoid over-blurring of texture regions and at the same time eliminate blocking artefacts in the smooth region and areas of slow motion content. This is achieved by using a saliency map to control the strength of the filter for each individual point in the image based on its perceptual importance. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is effective in deblocking highly compressed video sequences and to avoid over-blurring of edges and textures in salient regions of image.

The role of strategic intelligence in anticipating transnational organised crime: A literary review

Transnational Organised Crime (TOC) has become a focal point for a range of private and public stakeholders. While not a new phenomenon, the rapid expansion of TOC activities and interests, its increasingly complex structures and ability to maximise opportunity by employing new technologies at a rate impossible for law enforcement to match complicates law enforcement’s ability to develop strategies to detect, disrupt, prevent and investigate them. In an age where the role of police has morphed from simplistic response and enforcement activities to one of managing human security risk, it is argued that intelligence can be used to reduce the impact of strategic surprise from evolving criminal threats and environmental change. This review specifically focuses on research that has implications for strategic intelligence and strategy setting in a TOC context. The review findings suggest that current law enforcement intelligence literature focuses narrowly on the management concept of intelligence-led policing in a tactical, operational setting. As such the review identifies central issues surrounding strategic intelligence and highlights key questions that future research agendas must address to improve strategic intelligence outcomes, particularly in the fight against TOC.

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

Time dependency of molecular rate estimates and systematic overestimation of recent divergence times

Studies of molecular evolutionary rates have yielded a wide range of rate estimates for various genes and taxa. Recent studies based on population-level and pedigree data have produced remarkably high estimates of mutation rate, which strongly contrast with substitution rates inferred in phylogenetic (species-level) studies. Using Bayesian analysis with a relaxed-clock model, we estimated rates for three groups of mitochondrial data: avian protein-coding genes, primate protein-coding genes, and primate d-loop sequences. In all three cases, we found a measurable transition between the high, short-term (<1–2 Myr) mutation rate and the low, long-term substitution rate. The relationship between the age of the calibration and the rate of change can be described by a vertically translated exponential decay curve, which may be used for correcting molecular date estimates. The phylogenetic substitution rates in mitochondria are approximately 0.5% per million years for avian protein-coding sequences and 1.5% per million years for primate protein-coding and d-loop sequences. Further analyses showed that purifying selection offers the most convincing explanation for the observed relationship between the estimated rate and the depth of the calibration. We rule out the possibility that it is a spurious result arising from sequence errors, and find it unlikely that the apparent decline in rates over time is caused by mutational saturation. Using a rate curve estimated from the d-loop data, several dates for last common ancestors were calculated: modern humans and Neandertals (354 ka; 222–705 ka), Neandertals (108 ka; 70–156 ka), and modern humans (76 ka; 47–110 ka). If the rate curve for a particular taxonomic group can be accurately estimated, it can be a useful tool for correcting divergence date estimates by taking the rate decay into account. Our results show that it is invalid to extrapolate molecular rates of change across different evolutionary timescales, which has important consequences for studies of populations, domestication, conservation genetics, and human evolution.

Evidence for time dependency of molecular rate estimates

Long-term changes in the genetic composition of a population occur by the fixation of new mutations, a process known as substitution. The rate at which mutations arise in a population and the rate at which they are fixed are expected to be equal under neutral conditions (Kimura, 1968). Between the appearance of a new mutation and its eventual fate of fixation or loss, there will be a period in which it exists as a transient polymorphism in the population (Kimura and Ohta, 1971). If the majority of mutations are deleterious (and nonlethal), the fixation probabilities of these transient polymorphisms are reduced and the mutation rate will exceed the substitution rate (Kimura, 1983). Consequently, different apparent rates may be observed on different time scales of the molecular evolutionary process (Penny, 2005; Penny and Holmes, 2001). The substitution rate of the mitochondrial protein-coding genes of birds and mammals has been traditionally recognized to be about 0.01 substitutions/site/million years (Myr) (Brown et al., 1979; Ho, 2007; Irwin et al., 1991; Shields and Wilson, 1987), with the noncoding D-loop evolving several times more quickly (e.g., Pesole et al., 1992; Quinn, 1992). Over the past decade, there has been mounting evidence that instantaneous mutation rates substantially exceed substitution rates, in a range of organisms (e.g., Denver et al., 2000; Howell et al., 2003; Lambert et al., 2002; Mao et al., 2006; Mumm et al., 1997; Parsons et al., 1997; Santos et al., 2005). The immediate reaction to the first of these findings was that the polymorphisms generated by the elevated mutation rate are short-lived, perhaps extending back only a few hundred years (Gibbons, 1998; Macaulay et al., 1997). That is, purifying selection was thought to remove these polymorphisms very rapidly.

Use of Bayesian MUNE to show differing rate of loss of motor units in subgroups of ALS

Objectives To evaluate differences among patients with different clinical features of ALS, we used our Bayesian method of motor unit number estimation (MUNE). Methods We performed serial MUNE studies on 42 subjects who fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for ALS during the course of their illness. Subjects were classified into three subgroups according to whether they had typical ALS (with upper and lower motor neurone signs) or had predominantly upper motor neurone weakness with only minor LMN signs, or predominantly lower motor neurone weakness with only minor UMN signs. In all subjects we calculated the half life of MUs, defined as the expected time for the number of MUs to halve, in one or more of the abductor digiti minimi (ADM), abductor pollicis brevis (APB) and extensor digitorum brevis (EDB) muscles. Results The mean half life of MUs was less in subjects who had typical ALS with both upper and lower motor neurone signs than in those with predominantly upper motor neurone weakness or predominantly lower motor neurone weakness. In 18 subjects we analysed the estimated size of the MUs and demonstrated the appearance of large MUs in subjects with upper or lower motor neurone predominant weakness. We found that the appearance of large MUs was correlated with the half life of MUs. Conclusions Patients with different clinical features of ALS have different rates of loss and different sizes of MUs. Significance: These findings could indicate differences in disease pathogenesis.

Relative entropy rate based model selection for linear hybrid system filters of uncertain nonlinear systems

Hybrid system representations have been exploited in a number of challenging modelling situations, including situations where the original nonlinear dynamics are too complex (or too imprecisely known) to be directly filtered. Unfortunately, the question of how to best design suitable hybrid system models has not yet been fully addressed, particularly in the situations involving model uncertainty. This paper proposes a novel joint state-measurement relative entropy rate based approach for design of hybrid system filters in the presence of (parameterised) model uncertainty. We also present a design approach suitable for suboptimal hybrid system filters. The benefits of our proposed approaches are illustrated through design examples and simulation studies.

Context-aware rate-adaptive beaconing for efficient and scalable vehicular safety communication

Vehicular safety applications, such as cooperative collision warning systems, rely on beaconing to provide situational awareness that is needed to predict and therefore to avoid possible collisions. Beaconing is the continual exchange of vehicle motion-state information, such as position, speed, and heading, which enables each vehicle to track its neighboring vehicles in real time. This work presents a context-aware adaptive beaconing scheme that dynamically adapts the beaconing repetition rate based on an estimated channel load and the danger severity of the interactions among vehicles. The safety, efficiency, and scalability of the new scheme is evaluated by simulating vehicle collisions caused by inattentive drivers under various road traffic densities. Simulation results show that the new scheme is more efficient and scalable, and is able to improve safety better than the existing non-adaptive and adaptive rate schemes.

Quantitative studies of lower motor neuron degeneration in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis : Evidence for exponential decay of motor unit numbers and greatest rate of loss at the site of onset

Objective: To use our Bayesian method of motor unit number estimation (MUNE) to evaluate lower motor neuron degeneration in ALS. Methods: In subjects with ALS we performed serial MUNE studies. We examined the repeatability of the test and then determined whether the loss of MUs was fitted by an exponential or Weibull distribution. Results: The decline in motor unit (MU) numbers was well-fitted by an exponential decay curve. We calculated the half life of MUs in the abductor digiti minimi (ADM), abductor pollicis brevis (APB) and/or extensor digitorum brevis (EDB) muscles. The mean half life of the MUs of ADM muscle was greater than those of the APB or EDB muscles. The half-life of MUs was less in the ADM muscle of subjects with upper limb than in those with lower limb onset. Conclusions: The rate of loss of lower motor neurons in ALS is exponential, the motor units of the APB decay more quickly than those of the ADM muscle and the rate of loss of motor units is greater at the site of onset of disease. Significance: This shows that the Bayesian MUNE method is useful in following the course and exploring the clinical features of ALS. 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Consecutive days of cold water immersion: effects on cycling performance and heart rate variability.

We investigated performance and heart rate (HR) variability (HRV) over consecutive days of cycling with post-exercise cold water immersion (CWI) or passive recovery (PAS). In a crossover design, 11 cyclists completed two separate 3-day training blocks (120 min cycling per day, 66 maximal sprints, 9 min time trialling [TT]), followed by 2 days of recovery-based training. The cyclists recovered from each training session by standing in cold water (10 °C) or at room temperature (27 °C) for 5 min. Mean power for sprints, total TT work and HR were assessed during each session. Resting vagal-HRV (natural logarithm of square-root of mean squared differences of successive R-R intervals; ln rMSSD) was assessed after exercise, after the recovery intervention, during sleep and upon waking. CWI allowed better maintenance of mean sprint power (between-trial difference [90 % confidence limits] +12.4 % [5.9; 18.9]), cadence (+2.0 % [0.6; 3.5]), and mean HR during exercise (+1.6 % [0.0; 3.2]) compared with PAS. ln rMSSD immediately following CWI was higher (+144 % [92; 211]) compared with PAS. There was no difference between the trials in TT performance (-0.2 % [-3.5; 3.0]) or waking ln rMSSD (-1.2 % [-5.9; 3.4]). CWI helps to maintain sprint performance during consecutive days of training, whereas its effects on vagal-HRV vary over time and depend on prior exercise intensity.

The effect of post-exercise hydrotherapy on subsequent exercise performance and heart rate variability

We investigated the effect of hydrotherapy on time-trial performance and cardiac parasympathetic reactivation during recovery from intense training. On three occasions, 18 well-trained cyclists completed 60 min high-intensity cycling, followed 20 min later by one of three 10-min recovery interventions: passive rest (PAS), cold water immersion (CWI), or contrast water immersion (CWT). The cyclists then rested quietly for 160 min with R-R intervals and perceptions of recovery recorded every 30 min. Cardiac parasympathetic activity was evaluated using the natural logarithm of the square root of mean squared differences of successive R-R intervals (ln rMSSD). Finally, the cyclists completed a work-based cycling time trial. Effects were examined using magnitude-based inferences. Differences in time-trial performance between the three trials were trivial. Compared with PAS, general fatigue was very likely lower for CWI (difference [90% confidence limits; -12% (-18; -5)]) and CWT [-11% (-19; -2)]. Leg soreness was almost certainly lower following CWI [-22% (-30; -14)] and CWT [-27% (-37; -15)]. The change in mean ln rMSSD following the recovery interventions (ln rMSSD(Post-interv)) was almost certainly higher following CWI [16.0% (10.4; 23.2)] and very likely higher following CWT [12.5% (5.5; 20.0)] compared with PAS, and possibly higher following CWI [3.7% (-0.9; 8.4)] compared with CWT. The correlations between performance, ln rMSSD(Post-interv) and perceptions of recovery were unclear. A moderate correlation was observed between ln rMSSD(Post-interv) and leg soreness [r = -0.50 (-0.66; -0.29)]. Although the effects of CWI and CWT on performance were trivial, the beneficial effects on perceptions of recovery support the use of these recovery strategies.

Automatic region-of-interest detection and prioritisation for visually optimised coding of low bit rate videos

The increasing popularity of video consumption from mobile devices requires an effective video coding strategy. To overcome diverse communication networks, video services often need to maintain sustainable quality when the available bandwidth is limited. One of the strategy for a visually-optimised video adaptation is by implementing a region-of-interest (ROI) based scalability, whereby important regions can be encoded at a higher quality while maintaining sufficient quality for the rest of the frame. The result is an improved perceived quality at the same bit rate as normal encoding, which is particularly obvious at the range of lower bit rate. However, because of the difficulties of predicting region-of-interest (ROI) accurately, there is a limited research and development of ROI-based video coding for general videos. In this paper, the phase spectrum quaternion of Fourier Transform (PQFT) method is adopted to determine the ROI. To improve the results of ROI detection, the saliency map from the PQFT is augmented with maps created from high level knowledge of factors that are known to attract human attention. Hence, maps that locate faces and emphasise the centre of the screen are used in combination with the saliency map to determine the ROI. The contribution of this paper lies on the automatic ROI detection technique for coding a low bit rate videos which include the ROI prioritisation technique to give different level of encoding qualities for multiple ROIs, and the evaluation of the proposed automatic ROI detection that is shown to have a close performance to human ROI, based on the eye fixation data.

Rate of torque and electromyographic development during anticipated eccentric contraction is lower in previously strained hamstrings

Background: Hamstring strain injuries are prevalent in sport and re-injury rates have been high for many years. Whilst much focus has centred on the impact of previous hamstring strain injury on maximal eccentric strength, high rates of torque development is also of interest, given the important role of the hamstrings during the terminal swing phase of running. The impact of prior strain injury on myoelectrical activity of the hamstrings during tasks requiring high rates of torque development has received little attention. Purpose: To determine if recreational athletes with a history of unilateral hamstring strain injury, who have returned to training and competition, will exhibit lower levels of myoelectrical activity during eccentric contraction, rate of torque development and impulse 30, 50 and 100ms after the onset of myoelectrical activity or torque development in the previously injured limb compared to the uninjured limb. Study design: Case-control study Methods: Twenty-six recreational athletes were recruited. Of these, 13 athletes had a history of unilateral hamstring strain injury (all confined to biceps femoris long head) and 13 had no history of hamstring strain injury. Following familiarisation, all athletes undertook isokinetic dynamometry testing and surface electromyography assessment of the biceps femoris long head and medial hamstrings during eccentric contractions at -60 and -1800.s-1. Results: In the injured limb of the injured group, compared to the contralateral uninjured limb rate of torque development and impulse was lower during -600.s-1 eccentric contractions at 50 (RTD, injured limb = 312.27 ± 191.78Nm.s-1 vs. uninjured limb = 518.54 ± 172.81Nm.s-1, p=0.008; IMP, injured limb = 0.73 ± 0.30 Nm.s vs. uninjured limb = 0.97 ± 0.23 Nm.s, p=0.005) and 100ms (RTD, injured limb = 280.03 ± 131.42Nm.s-1 vs. uninjured limb = 460.54.54 ± 152.94Nm.s-1,p=0.001; IMP, injured limb = 2.15 ± 0.89 Nm.s vs. uninjured limb = 3.07 ± 0.63 Nm.s, p<0.001) after the onset of contraction. Biceps femoris long head muscle activation was lower at 100ms at both contraction speeds (-600.s-1, normalised iEMG activity (x1000), injured limb = 26.25 ± 10.11 vs. uninjured limb 33.57 ± 8.29, p=0.009; -1800.s-1, normalised iEMG activity (x1000), injured limb = 31.16 ± 10.01 vs. uninjured limb 39.64 ± 8.36, p=0.009). Medial hamstring activation did not differ between limbs in the injured group. Comparisons in the uninjured group showed no significant between limbs difference for any variables. Conclusion: Previously injured hamstrings displayed lower rate of torque development and impulse during slow maximal eccentric contraction compared to the contralateral uninjured limb. Lower myoelectrical activity was confined to the biceps femoris long head. Regardless of whether these deficits are the cause of or the result of injury, these findings could have important implications for hamstring strain injury and re-injury. Particularly, given the importance of high levels of muscle activity to bring about specific muscular adaptations, lower levels of myoelectrical activity may limit the adaptive response to rehabilitation interventions and suggest greater attention be given to neural function of the knee flexors following hamstring strain injury.