Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Insulin signaling and action in cultured skeletal muscle cells from lean healthy humans with high and low insulin sensitivity

The aim of these studies was to investigate whether insulin resistance is primary to skeletal muscle. Myoblasts were isolated from muscle biopsies of 8 lean insulin-resistant and 8 carefully matched insulin-sensitive subjects (metabolic clearance rates as determined by euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp: 5.8 +/- 0.5 vs. 12.3 +/- 1.7 ml x kg(-1) x min(-1), respectively; P < or = 0.05) and differentiated to myotubes. In these cells, insulin stimulation of glucose uptake, glycogen synthesis, insulin receptor (IR) kinase activity, and insulin receptor substrate 1-associated phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI 3-kinase) activity were measured. Furthermore, insulin activation of protein kinase B (PKB) was compared with immunoblotting of serine residues at position 473. Basal glucose uptake (1.05 +/- 0.07 vs. 0.95 +/- 0.07 relative units, respectively; P = 0.49) and basal glycogen synthesis (1.02 +/- 0.11 vs. 0.98 +/- 0.11 relative units, respectively; P = 0.89) were not different in myotubes from insulin-resistant and insulin-sensitive subjects. Maximal insulin responsiveness of glucose uptake (1.35 +/- 0.03-fold vs. 1.41 +/- 0.05-fold over basal for insulin-resistant and insulin-sensitive subjects, respectively; P = 0.43) and glycogen synthesis (2.00 +/- 0.13-fold vs. 2.10 +/- 0.16-fold over basal for insulin-resistant and insulin-sensitive subjects, respectively; P = 0.66) were also not different. Insulin stimulation (1 nmol/l) of IR kinase and PI 3-kinase were maximal within 5 min (approximately 8- and 5-fold over basal, respectively), and insulin activation of PKB was maximal within 15 min (approximately 3.5-fold over basal). These time kinetics were not significantly different between groups. In summary, our data show that insulin action and signaling in cultured skeletal muscle cells from normoglycemic lean insulin-resistant subjects is not different from that in cells from insulin-sensitive subjects. This suggests an important role of environmental factors in the development of insulin resistance in skeletal muscle.

Refining abacavir hypersensitivity diagnoses using a structured clinical assessment and genetic testing in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the value of a structured clinical assessment and genetic testing for refining the diagnosis of abacavir hypersensitivity reactions (ABC-HSRs) in a routine clinical setting. METHODS: We performed a diagnostic reassessment using a structured patient chart review in individuals who had stopped ABC because of suspected HSR. Two HIV physicians blinded to the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing results independently classified these individuals on a scale between 3 (ABC-HSR highly likely) and -3 (ABC-HSR highly unlikely). Scoring was based on symptoms, onset of symptoms and comedication use. Patients were classified as clinically likely (mean score > or =2), uncertain (mean score > or = -1 and < or = 1) and unlikely (mean score < or = -2). HLA typing was performed using sequence-based methods. RESULTS: From 131 reassessed individuals, 27 (21%) were classified as likely, 43 (33%) as unlikely and 61 (47%) as uncertain ABC-HSR. Of the 131 individuals with suspected ABC-HSR, 31% were HLA-B*5701-positive compared with 1% of 140 ABC-tolerant controls (P < 0.001). HLA-B*5701 carriage rate was higher in individuals with likely ABC-HSR compared with those with uncertain or unlikely ABC-HSR (78%, 30% and 5%, respectively, P < 0.001). Only six (7%) HLA-B*5701-negative individuals were classified as likely HSR after reassessment. CONCLUSIONS: HLA-B*5701 carriage is highly predictive of clinically diagnosed ABC-HSR. The high proportion of HLA-B*5701-negative individuals with minor symptoms among individuals with suspected HSR indicates overdiagnosis of ABC-HSR in the era preceding genetic screening. A structured clinical assessment and genetic testing could reduce the rate of inappropriate ABC discontinuation and identify individuals at high risk for ABC-HSR.

Organisational and methodical aspects of drug and addiction prevention among young people. Developments in the Ukraine, in Germany, Spain and Russia (Project Description)

From october 2000 to march 2003 the project has been coordinated by the institute of social work and welfare studies of the TU Dresden and financed by the European Commission (INCO-COPERNICUS-Programme). It was an international cooperation between the TU Dresden (Germany), the University of Internal Affairs and the National Technical University in Kharkiv (Ukraine), the research institute AREA in Valenciá (Spain) and the Belgorod Juridical Institute of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (Russia) which was established for improving the knowledge base of drug prevention activities by the East European partners. The overall aim of the project was the analysis and elaboration of approaches to drug and addiction prevention. Under consideration of the specific conditions within the East-European countries this work should contribute to the development of pluralistic approaches towards health promotion which are embedded into an intercultural, European horizon.

Virtual characters designed for forensic assessment and rehabilitation of sex offenders: standardized and made-to-measure

This paper presents two studies pertaining to the use of virtual characters applied in clinical forensic rehabilitation of sex offenders. The first study is about the validation of the perceived age of virtual characters designed to simulate primary and secondary sexual character of typical adult and child individuals. The second study puts to use these virtual characters in comparing a group of sex offenders and a group of non deviant individuals on their sexual arousal responses as recorded in virtual immersion. Finally, two clinical vignettes illustrating the use of made-to-measure virtual characters to more closely fit sexual preferences are presented in Discussion.

Landscape mosaics maps as a basis for spatial assessment and negotiation of ecosystem services and their trade-offs at the meso-scale: Examples from Laos, Madagascar and China

Mapping ecosystem services (ES) and their trade-offs is a key requirement for informed decision making for land use planning and management of natural resources that aim to move towards increasing the sustainability of landscapes. The negotiations of the purposes of landscapes and the services they should provide are difficult as there is an increasing number of stakeholders active at different levels with a variety of interests present on one particular landscape.Traditionally, land cover data is at the basis for mapping and spatial monitoring of ecosystem services. In light of complex landscapes it is however questionable whether land cover per se and as a spatial base unit is suitable for monitoring and management at the meso-scale. Often the characteristics of a landscape are defined by prevalence, composition and specific spatial and temporal patterns of different land cover types. The spatial delineation of shifting cultivation agriculture represents a prominent example of a land use system with its different land use intensities that requires alternative methodologies that go beyond the common remote sensing approaches of pixel-based land cover analysis due to the spatial and temporal dynamics of rotating cultivated and fallow fields.Against this background we advocate that adopting a landscape perspective to spatial planning and decision making offers new space for negotiation and collaboration, taking into account the needs of local resource users, and of the global community. For this purpose we introduce landscape mosaicsdefined as new spatial unit describing generalized land use types. Landscape mosaics have allowed us to chart different land use systems and land use intensities and permitted us to delineate changes in these land use systems based on changes of external claims on these landscapes. The underlying idea behindthe landscape mosaics is to use land cover data typically derived from remote sensing data and to analyse and classify spatial patterns of this land cover data using a moving window approach. We developed the landscape mosaics approach in tropical, forest dominated landscapesparticularly shifting cultivation areas and present examples ofour work from northern Laos, eastern Madagascarand Yunnan Province in China.

A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT AND DRUG-DRUG INTERACTION ANALYSIS: APPLICATION TO IN VITRO STUDIES

The considerable search for synergistic agents in cancer research is motivated by the therapeutic benefits achieved by combining anti-cancer agents. Synergistic agents make it possible to reduce dosage while maintaining or enhancing a desired effect. Other favorable outcomes of synergistic agents include reduction in toxicity and minimizing or delaying drug resistance. Dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis play an important part in the drug discovery process, however analysis are often poorly done. This dissertation is an effort to notably improve dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis. The most commonly used method in published analysis is the Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method (Chou and Talalay, 1984). The Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method leads to inefficiency by ignoring important sources of variation inherent in dose-response data and discarding data points that do not fit the Median-Effect Principle. Previous work has shown that the conventional method yields a high rate of false positives (Boik, Boik, Newman, 2008; Hennessey, Rosner, Bast, Chen, 2010) and, in some cases, low power to detect synergy. There is a great need for improving the current methodology. We developed a Bayesian framework for dose-response modeling and drug-drug interaction analysis. First, we developed a hierarchical meta-regression dose-response model that accounts for various sources of variation and uncertainty and allows one to incorporate knowledge from prior studies into the current analysis, thus offering a more efficient and reliable inference. Second, in the case that parametric dose-response models do not fit the data, we developed a practical and flexible nonparametric regression method for meta-analysis of independently repeated dose-response experiments. Third, and lastly, we developed a method, based on Loewe additivity that allows one to quantitatively assess interaction between two agents combined at a fixed dose ratio. The proposed method makes a comprehensive and honest account of uncertainty within drug interaction assessment. Extensive simulation studies show that the novel methodology improves the screening process of effective/synergistic agents and reduces the incidence of type I error. We consider an ovarian cancer cell line study that investigates the combined effect of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors in human ovarian cancer cell lines. The hypothesis is that the combination of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors will enhance antiproliferative activity in human ovarian cancer cell lines compared to treatment with each inhibitor alone. By applying the proposed Bayesian methodology, in vitro synergy was declared for DNA methylation inhibitor, 5-AZA-2'-deoxycytidine combined with one histone deacetylation inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or trichostatin A in the cell lines HEY and SKOV3. This suggests potential new epigenetic therapies in cell growth inhibition of ovarian cancer cells.

A virtual environment for the assessment and the rehabilitation of the visuo-constructional ability in dementia patients

This study proposes a VE that offers a reliable diagnosis of the stage of cognitive decline in dementia patients and assists the delay of this decline in terms of the visuo-constructional ability. The proposed VE, in the case of the assessment, presents a visuo-constructional completion task, which requires spatial perception, motor memory and the perception of the target object. In the case of the rehabilitation the VE uses sound as audio-feedback that, with the aid of the music perception, tends to develop an enhancement in the visuo-construction ability of the dementia patients that can be generalized even outside of the VE. The study examined 30 subjects that were normal controls (N), 30 patients suffering from memory disorders (Age-Associated Memory Impairment--AAMI) and 30 suffering from Alzheimer's Disease (AD). The results showed that there is a significant correlation between the performance in the visuo-constructional task and the dementia diagnosis. It also seems that the visuo-constructional ability of the (AD) patients can be statistically improved by the audio experience in the VE. The empirical results of this study offer an alternative diagnosis and treatment of dementia patients and could share some light in the brain sub-systems that are responsible for the visuo-constructional ability. Further studies are required in order to investigate the nature of this phenomenon more.