Na 50 Nachlass Arthur Schopenhauer - 'Schopenhauer-Archiv', 217 - Glückwunschschreiben zum 72. Geburtstag

veröffentlicht in: Schopenhauer, Arthur : Arthur Schopenhauers sämtliche Werke - München : Piper - Bd. 15 : Der Briefwechsel Arthur Schopenhauers ; 2 (1849 - 1860), Nr. 794

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

(Table 1) K-Ar age of alkaline igneous rocks from the Jan Mayen fracture zone

Bottom morphology of the Jan Mayen transform fracture zone and rock chemistry data show that petrological and chemical specific features of igneous rocks can result from higher permeability of the transform fracture zone and deeper penetration of ocean water into the lithosphere in comparison with rift zones of the Kolbeinsey and Mohn's mid-ocean ridges. Age of alkaline magmatism of the Jan Mayen fracture zone is similar to that of rift zones due to palingenesis of metamorphosed and hydrated mantle and crustal rocks.

(Table 1) Nd and Sr isotopic analyses of ODP Leg 127 basalts

Sr and Nd isotopic compositions are reported for basaltic rocks collected during ODP Leg 127 from the Yamato Basin, a rifted backarc basin in the Japan Sea. The basalts are classified into two groups in terms of Nd isotopic composition: the upper sills at Site 797 are characterized by higher 143Nd/144Nd ratios (0.513083-0.513158, epsilon-Nd = 8.68-10.14) and the basalts from Site 794 and the lower sills at Site 797 have lower 143Nd/144Nd ratios (0.512684-0.512862, epsilon-Nd = 0.90-4.37). All of the basalts show higher Sr isotopic compositions than those of the mantle array, which is attributed to seawater alteration. The basalts with lower Nd isotopic values ranging in age from 20.6 to 17.3 Ma have tapped an enriched subcontinental upper mantle (SCUM) with the minor involvement of a depleted asthenospheric mantle (AM). Subsequent change in composition through the physical replacement of SCUM by AM yielded the basalts of the upper sills of higher Nd isotopic compositions. This event within the upper mantle was associated with the breakup of the overlying lithosphere during the rifting of the Japan Sea backarc basin.

Solar radiation over and under sea ice and photographic quantification of Ice algal aggregates during the POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXVII/3 (IceArc) in summer 2012

The ice cover of the Arctic Ocean has been changing dramatically in the last decades and the consequences for the sea-ice associated ecosystem remain difficult to assess. Algal aggregates underneath sea ice have been described sporadically but the frequency and distribution of their occurrence is not well quantified. We used upward looking images obtained by a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to derive estimates of ice algal aggregate biomass and to investigate their spatial distribution. During the IceArc expedition (ARK-XXVII/3) of RV Polarstern in late summer 2012, different types of algal aggregates were observed floating underneath various ice types in the Central Arctic basins. Our results show that the floe scale distribution of algal aggregates in late summer is very patchy and determined by the topography of the ice underside, with aggregates collecting in dome shaped structures and at the edges of pressure ridges. The buoyancy of the aggregates was also evident from analysis of the aggregate size distribution. Different approaches used to estimate aggregate biomass yield a wide range of results. This highlights that special care must be taken when upscaling observations and comparing results from surveys conducted using different methods or on different spatial scales.

Granulometry of two sediment cores from Maxwell Bay, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica

The climate evolution of the South Shetland Islands during the last c. 2000 years is inferred from the multiproxy analyses of a long (928 cm) sediment core retrieved from Maxwell Bay off King George Island. The vertical sediment flux at the core location is controlled by summer melting processes that cause sediment-laden meltwater plumes to form. These leave a characteristic signature in the sediments of NE Maxwell Bay. We use this signature to distinguish summer and winter-dominated periods. During the Medieval Warm Period, sediments are generally finer which indicates summer-type conditions. In contrast, during the Little Ice Age (LIA) sediments are generally coarser and are indicative of winter-dominated conditions. Comparison with Northern and Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic, and global temperature reconstructions reveals that the mean grain-size curve from Maxwell Bay closely resembles the curve of the global temperature reconstruction. We show that the medieval warming occurred earlier in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere, which might indicate that the warming was driven by processes occurring in the south. The beginning of the LIA appears to be almost synchronous in both hemispheres. The warming after the LIA closely resembles the Northern Hemisphere record which might indicate this phase of cooling was driven by processes occurring in the north. Although the recent rapid regional warming is clearly visible, the Maxwell Bay record does not show the dominance of summer-type sediments until the 1970s. Continued warming in this area will likely affect the marine ecosystem through meltwater induced turbidity of the surface waters as well as an extension of the vegetation period due to the predicted decrease of sea ice in this area.

Solar irradiance over and under seasonal land-fast sea ice off Barrow, Alaska, in 2010

The amount of solar radiation transmitted through Arctic sea ice is determined by the thickness and physical properties of snow and sea ice. Light transmittance is highly variable in space and time since thickness and physical properties of snow and sea ice are highly heterogeneous on variable time and length scales. We present field measurements of under-ice irradiance along transects under undeformed land-fast sea ice at Barrow, Alaska (March, May, and June 2010). The measurements were performed with a spectral radiometer mounted on a floating under-ice sled. The objective was to quantify the spatial variability of light transmittance through snow and sea ice, and to compare this variability along its seasonal evolution. Along with optical measurements, snow depth, sea ice thickness, and freeboard were recorded, and ice cores were analyzed for chlorophyll a and particulate matter. Our results show that snow cover variability prior to onset of snow melt causes as much relative spatial variability of light transmittance as the contrast of ponded and white ice during summer. Both before and after melt onset, measured transmittances fell in a range from one third to three times the mean value. In addition, we found a twentyfold increase of light transmittance as a result of partial snowmelt, showing the seasonal evolution of transmittance through sea ice far exceeds the spatial variability. However, prior melt onset, light transmittance was time invariant and differences in under-ice irradiance were directly related to the spatial variability of the snow cover.

Sediment geochemistry of ODP Leg 127 sites

The relative effects of paleoceanographic and paleogeographic variations, sediment lithology, and diagenetic processes on the final preserved chemistry of Japan Sea sediments are evaluated by investigating the rare earth element (REE), major element, and trace element concentrations in 59 squeeze-cake whole-round and 27 physical-property sample residues from Sites 794, 795, and 797, cored during ODP Leg 127. The most important variation in sedimentary chemical composition is the increase in SiO2 concentration through the Pliocene diatomaceous sequences, which dilutes most other major and trace element components by various degrees. This biogenic input is largest at Site 794 (Yamato Basin), moderately developed at Site 797 (Yamato Basin), and of only minor importance at Site 795 (Japan Basin), potentially reflecting basinal contrasts in productivity with the Yamato Basin recording greater biogenic input than the Japan Basin and with the easternmost sequence of Site 794 lying beneath the most productive waters. There are few systematic changes in solid-phase chemistry resulting from the opal-A/opal-CT or opal-CT/quartz silica phase transformations. Most major and trace element concentrations are controlled by the aluminosilicate fraction of the sediment, although the effects of diagenetic silica phases and manganese carbonates are of localized importance. REE total abundances (Sum REE) in the Japan Sea are strongly dependent upon the paleoceanographic position of a given site with respect to terrigenous and biogenic sources. REE concentrations at Site 794 overall correspond well to aluminosilicate chemical indices and are strongly diluted by SiO2 within the upper Miocene-Pliocene diatomaceous sequence. Eu/Eu* values at Site 794 reach a maximum through the diatomaceous interval as well, most likely suggesting an association of Eu/Eu* with the siliceous component, or reflecting slight incorporation of a detrital feldspar phase. SumREE at Site 795 also is affiliated strongly with aluminosilicate phases and yet is diluted only slightly by siliceous input. At Site 797, SumREE is not as clearly associated with the aluminosilicate fraction, is correlated moderately to siliceous input, and may be sporadically influenced by detrital heavy minerals originating from the nearby rifted continental fragment composing the Yamato Rise. Ce/Ce* profiles at all three sites increase essentially monotonically with depth and record progressive diagenetic LREE fractionation. The observed Ce/Ce* increases are not responding to changes in the paleoceanographic oxygenation state of the overlying water, as there is no independent evidence to suggest the proper oceanographic conditions. Ce/Ce* correlates slightly better with depth than with age at the two Yamato Basin sites. The downhole increase in Ce/Ce* at Sites 794 and 797 is a passive response to the diagenetic transfer of LREE (except Ce) from sediment to interstitial water. At Site 795, the overall lack of correlation between Ce/Ce* and Lan/Ybn suggests that other processes mask the diagenetic behavior of all LREEs. First-order calculations of the Ce budget in Japan Sea waters and sediment indicate that ~20% of the excess Ce adsorbed by settling particles is recycled within the water column and that an additional ~38% is recycled at or near the seafloor. Thus, because the remaining excess Ce is only ~10% of the total Ce, there is not a large source of Ce to the deeply buried sediment, further suggesting that the downhole increase in Ce/Ce* is a passive response to diagenetic behavior of the other LREEs. The REE chemistry of Japan Sea sediment therefore predicts successive downhole addition of LREEs to deeply buried interstitial waters.