Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Field Evaluation of Compaction Monitoring Technology: Phase II Volumes 1 and 2, TR-495, 2006

This report documents an extensive field program carried out to identify the relationships between soil engineering properties, as measured by various in situ devices, and the results of machine compaction monitoring using prototype compaction monitoring technology developed by Caterpillar Inc. Primary research tasks for this study include the following: (1) experimental testing and statistical analyses to evaluate machine power in terms of the engineering properties of the compacted soil (e.g., density, strength, stiffness) and (2) recommendations for using the compaction monitoring technology in practice. The compaction monitoring technology includes sensors that monitor the power consumption used to move the compaction machine, an on-board computer and display screen, and a GPS system to map the spatial location of the machine. In situ soil density, strength, and stiffness data characterized the soil at various stages of compaction. For each test strip or test area, in situ soil properties were compared directly to machine power values to establish statistical relationships. Statistical models were developed to predict soil density, strength, and stiffness from the machine power values. Field data for multiple test strips were evaluated. The R2 correlation coefficient was generally used to assess the quality of the regressions. Strong correlations were observed between averaged machine power and field measurement data. The relationships are based on the compaction model derived from laboratory data. Correlation coefficients (R2) were consistently higher for thicker lifts than for thin lifts, indicating that the depth influencing machine power response exceeds the representative lift thickness encountered under field conditions. Caterpillar Inc. compaction monitoring technology also identified localized areas of an earthwork project with weak or poorly compacted soil. The soil properties at these locations were verified using in situ test devices. This report also documents the steps required to implement the compaction monitoring technology evaluated.

Influence of magnetic field strength and image registration strategy on voxel-based morphometry in a study of Alzheimer's disease.

Multi-centre data repositories like the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) offer a unique research platform, but pose questions concerning comparability of results when using a range of imaging protocols and data processing algorithms. The variability is mainly due to the non-quantitative character of the widely used structural T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) images. Although the stability of the main effect of Alzheimer's disease (AD) on brain structure across platforms and field strength has been addressed in previous studies using multi-site MR images, there are only sparse empirically-based recommendations for processing and analysis of pooled multi-centre structural MR data acquired at different magnetic field strengths (MFS). Aiming to minimise potential systematic bias when using ADNI data we investigate the specific contributions of spatial registration strategies and the impact of MFS on voxel-based morphometry in AD. We perform a whole-brain analysis within the framework of Statistical Parametric Mapping, testing for main effects of various diffeomorphic spatial registration strategies, of MFS and their interaction with disease status. Beyond the confirmation of medial temporal lobe volume loss in AD, we detect a significant impact of spatial registration strategy on estimation of AD related atrophy. Additionally, we report a significant effect of MFS on the assessment of brain anatomy (i) in the cerebellum, (ii) the precentral gyrus and (iii) the thalamus bilaterally, showing no interaction with the disease status. We provide empirical evidence in support of pooling data in multi-centre VBM studies irrespective of disease status or MFS.

Coisotropic regularization of singular Lagrangians

We present an alternative approach to the usual treatments of singular Lagrangians. It is based on a Hamiltonian regularization scheme inspired on the coisotropic embedding of presymplectic systems. A Lagrangian regularization of a singular Lagrangian is a regular Lagrangian defined on an extended velocity phase space that reproduces the original theory when restricted to the initial configuration space. A Lagrangian regularization does not always exists, but a family of singular Lagrangians is studied for which such a regularization can be described explicitly. These regularizations turn out to be essentially unique and provide an alternative setting to quantize the corresponding physical systems. These ideas can be applied both in classical mechanics and field theories. Several examples are discussed in detail. 1995 American Institute of Physics.

Thermal and magnetic field-induced martensite-austenite transition in Ni50.3Mn35.3Sn14.4 ribbons

Thermal and field-induced martensite-austenite transition was studied in melt spun Ni50.3Mn35.3Sn14.4 ribbons. Its distinct highly ordered columnarlike microstructure normal to ribbon plane allows the direct observation of critical fields at which field-induced and highly hysteretic reverse transformation starts (H=17kOe at 240K), and easy magnetization direction for austenite and martensite phases with respect to the rolling direction. Single phase L21 bcc austenite with TC of 313K transforms into a 7M orthorhombic martensite with thermal hysteresis of 21K and transformation temperatures of MS=226K, Mf=218K, AS=237K, and Af=244K

Minimal information about T cell assays: the process of reaching the community of T cell immunologists in cancer and beyond.

Many assays to evaluate the nature, breadth, and quality of antigen-specific T cell responses are currently applied in human medicine. In most cases, assay-related protocols are developed on an individual laboratory basis, resulting in a large number of different protocols being applied worldwide. Together with the inherent complexity of cellular assays, this leads to unnecessary limitations in the ability to compare results generated across institutions. Over the past few years a number of critical assay parameters have been identified which influence test performance irrespective of protocol, material, and reagents used. Describing these critical factors as an integral part of any published report will both facilitate the comparison of data generated across institutions and lead to improvements in the assays themselves. To this end, the Minimal Information About T Cell Assays (MIATA) project was initiated. The objective of MIATA is to achieve a broad consensus on which T cell assay parameters should be reported in scientific publications and to propose a mechanism for reporting these in a systematic manner. To add maximum value for the scientific community, a step-wise, open, and field-spanning approach has been taken to achieve technical precision, user-friendliness, adequate incorporation of concerns, and high acceptance among peers. Here, we describe the past, present, and future perspectives of the MIATA project. We suggest that the approach taken can be generically applied to projects in which a broad consensus has to be reached among scientists working in fragmented fields, such as immunology. An additional objective of this undertaking is to engage the broader scientific community to comment on MIATA and to become an active participant in the project.

Copy number variants, diseases and gene expression.

Copy number variation (CNV) has recently gained considerable interest as a source of genetic variation likely to play a role in phenotypic diversity and evolution. Much effort has been put into the identification and mapping of regions that vary in copy number among seemingly normal individuals in humans and a number of model organisms, using bioinformatics or hybridization-based methods. These have allowed uncovering associations between copy number changes and complex diseases in whole-genome association studies, as well as identify new genomic disorders. At the genome-wide scale, however, the functional impact of CNV remains poorly studied. Here we review the current catalogs of CNVs, their association with diseases and how they link genotype and phenotype. We describe initial evidence which revealed that genes in CNV regions are expressed at lower and more variable levels than genes mapping elsewhere, and also that CNV not only affects the expression of genes varying in copy number, but also have a global influence on the transcriptome. Further studies are warranted for complete cataloguing and fine mapping of CNVs, as well as to elucidate the different mechanisms by which they influence gene expression.

A Behavioral Account of the Labor Market: The Role of Fairness Concerns

In this paper, we argue that important labor market phenomena can be better understood if one takes (a) the inherent incompleteness and relational nature of most employment contracts and (b) the existence of reference-dependent fairness concerns among a substantial share of the population into account. Theory shows and experiments confirm that, even if fairness concerns were to exert only weak effects in one-shot interactions, repeated interactions greatly magnify the relevance of such concerns on economic outcomes. We also review evidence from laboratory and field experiments examining the role of wages and fairness on effort, derive predictions from our approach for entry-level wages and incumbent workers' wages, confront these predictions with the evidence, and show that reference-dependent fairness concerns may have important consequences for the effects of economic policies such as minimum wage laws.

Diversity and genetic structure of the wood ant Formica lugubris in unmanaged forests

Wood ant species show differences in their social structure, especially in the level of polygyny (number of laying queens per nest) and polydomy (number of nest per colony), both within and between species. We demonstrate here for the first time that Formica lugubris displays two different social forms in close proximity in alpine unmanaged forests of the Swiss National Park. The genetic data (7 microsatellite loci) and field data indicate that one population is mostly monogynous to weakly polygynous (r = 0.438) and monodomous, the second one being polygynous (r = 0.113) and polydomous. Within this latter population new nests are founded by budding, leading to the observed high density of nests. These two different social structures, possibly being two expressions of a same continuum, could be explained by several ecological or environmental factors (e.g. habitat saturation, resource competition) and also historical effects.

Comparison and validation of tissue modelization and statistical classification methods in T1-weighted MR brain images.

This paper presents a validation study on statistical nonsupervised brain tissue classification techniques in magnetic resonance (MR) images. Several image models assuming different hypotheses regarding the intensity distribution model, the spatial model and the number of classes are assessed. The methods are tested on simulated data for which the classification ground truth is known. Different noise and intensity nonuniformities are added to simulate real imaging conditions. No enhancement of the image quality is considered either before or during the classification process. This way, the accuracy of the methods and their robustness against image artifacts are tested. Classification is also performed on real data where a quantitative validation compares the methods' results with an estimated ground truth from manual segmentations by experts. Validity of the various classification methods in the labeling of the image as well as in the tissue volume is estimated with different local and global measures. Results demonstrate that methods relying on both intensity and spatial information are more robust to noise and field inhomogeneities. We also demonstrate that partial volume is not perfectly modeled, even though methods that account for mixture classes outperform methods that only consider pure Gaussian classes. Finally, we show that simulated data results can also be extended to real data.

Settlement evolution, field systems and sedimentary processes in a Mediterranean mid-mountain (Montseny Massif, Catalunya)

This paper presents the first results of a current research project about human – environmental interactions in the Montseny Massif. Our work sets out to integrate two research lines in the studied area: - Archaeological and archaeo-morphological surveys in a lower part of the mountains in order to characterize the evolution of the settlements and field systems. - The geological and geomorphological characterization of the slope and terrace deposits in relation with field systems and archaeological data. First results point out the intensive occupation of these inland areas during the Iberian and the Roman periods. Post-Roman sediments show different processes of erosion.

Korkeakappa-massan suotatuvuus

Työn tarkoituksena oli tutkia korkeakappa-massan suotautuvuutta sekä etsiä uusia analyysimenetelmiä korkeakappa-massan karakterisoimiseksi. Työssä pyrittiin määrittämään tekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat korkeakappa-massan suotautumiseen. Työn kirjallisessa osassa tarkasteltiin aluksi yleisesti keiton teoriaa, minkä jälkeen käsiteltiin jauhatusta ja tarkemmin korkeakappa-massan hienovaraisempaa jauhatusta eli kuidutusta. Seuraavaksi käsiteltiin suodatusta ja sen teoriaa sekä suodatukseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Massan pesusta esitettiin perusteet ja teoriaa. Lopuksi tarkasteltiin massan karakterisointia eri lähestymistavoilla sekä kuitujen perusominaisuuksia. Kokeellisessa osassa verrattiin LTY:n koesuodatuslaitteistolla tehdyillä suodatuskokeilla korkeakappa-massaisen sellukakun suotautuvuutta eri paine-eroilla, suodoksen eri hienoainepitoisuuksilla sekä ennen ja jälkeen sellutehtaallatapahtuneen kuidutuksen. Savonlinnassa sijaitsevalla laitteistolla tehtiin syrjäytystestejä ennen ja jälkeen kuidutusta otetuilla sellumassoilla. Lisäksi ennenja jälkeen kuidutusta otettuja sellumassanäytteitä karakterisoitiin mm. kuituanalysaattorilla, huokoskoko- ja ominaispinta-ala-analyyseillä sekä SEM-kuvilla. Suodatuskokeissa hienoainepitoisuudella ei ollut merkitystä permeabiliteettiin mitattujen suodosvirtausten perusteella. Kuten Darcyn lain perusteella voitiin olettaa, kakun paine-eron kasvaessa permeabiliteetti kasvoi. Vaikutus ei ollut kuitenkaan lineaarinen paine-eroon verrattuna vaan kakun permeabiliteetti kasvoi enemmän tietyllä paine-erovälillä. Tämä paine-eroväli vaihteli hieman riippuen oliko sellumassa otettu ennen vai jälkeen kuidutusta. Lappeenrannassa tehdyissä suodatuskokeissa ei ennen ja jälkeen kuidutusta otetuilla näytteillä ollut selvää eroa permeabiliteeteissa, mutta Savonlinnan syrjäytystesteissä ero syrjäytymisnopeudessa oli selvä. Ennen ja jälkeen kuidutusta otettujen sellumassojen kuituanalysaattorituloksissa ja SEM-kuvissa ei havaittu eroa näytteiden välillä, mutta massojen huokoskoko muuttui kuidutuksen vaikutuksesta.

Numerical and ExperimentalModelling of Gas Flow and Heat Transfer in the Air Gap of An Electric Machine

This work deals with the cooling of high-speed electric machines, such as motors and generators, through an air gap. It consists of numerical and experimental modelling of gas flow and heat transfer in an annular channel. Velocity and temperature profiles are modelled in the air gap of a high-speed testmachine. Local and mean heat transfer coefficients and total friction coefficients are attained for a smooth rotor-stator combination at a large velocity range. The aim is to solve the heat transfer numerically and experimentally. The FINFLO software, developed at Helsinki University of Technology, has been used in the flow solution, and the commercial IGG and Field view programs for the grid generation and post processing. The annular channel is discretized as a sector mesh. Calculation is performed with constant mass flow rate on six rotational speeds. The effect of turbulence is calculated using three turbulence models. The friction coefficient and velocity factor are attained via total friction power. The first part of experimental section consists of finding the proper sensors and calibrating them in a straight pipe. After preliminary tests, a RdF-sensor is glued on the walls of stator and rotor surfaces. Telemetry is needed to be able to measure the heat transfer coefficients at the rotor. The mean heat transfer coefficients are measured in a test machine on four cooling air mass flow rates at a wide Couette Reynolds number range. The calculated values concerning the friction and heat transfer coefficients are compared with measured and semi-empirical data. Heat is transferred from the hotter stator and rotor surfaces to the coolerair flow in the air gap, not from the rotor to the stator via the air gap, althought the stator temperature is lower than the rotor temperature. The calculatedfriction coefficients fits well with the semi-empirical equations and precedingmeasurements. On constant mass flow rate the rotor heat transfer coefficient attains a saturation point at a higher rotational speed, while the heat transfer coefficient of the stator grows uniformly. The magnitudes of the heat transfer coefficients are almost constant with different turbulence models. The calibrationof sensors in a straight pipe is only an advisory step in the selection process. Telemetry is tested in the pipe conditions and compared to the same measurements with a plain sensor. The magnitudes of the measured data and the data from the semi-empirical equation are higher for the heat transfer coefficients than thenumerical data considered on the velocity range. Friction and heat transfer coefficients are presented in a large velocity range in the report. The goals are reached acceptably using numerical and experimental research. The next challenge is to achieve results for grooved stator-rotor combinations. The work contains also results for an air gap with a grooved stator with 36 slots. The velocity field by the numerical method does not match in every respect the estimated flow mode. The absence of secondary Taylor vortices is evident when using time averagednumerical simulation.

Acclimatization and leaf anatomy of micropropagated fig plantlets

The survival of micropropagated plants during and after acclimatization is a limiting process to plant establishment. There is little information on how the anatomy of vegetative organs of Ficus carica can be affected by culture conditions and acclimatization. The present research aimed to study the effects of time on culture medium and substrates during the acclimatization of fig tree plantlets produced in vitro, characterizing some leaf anatomy aspects of plantlets cultured in vitro and of fig trees produced in field. Plantlets previously multiplied in vitro were separated and transferred into Wood Plant Medium (WPM) where they were kept for 0, 15, 30, 45 and 60 days. Different substrates were tested and studies on leaf anatomy were performed in order to compare among plantlets grown in vitro, plantlets under 20, 40 and 60 days of acclimatization, and field grown plants. Keeping plantlets for 30 days in WPM allowed better development in Plantmax during acclimatization. Field grown plants presented higher number of stomata, greater epicuticular wax thickness and greater leaf tissue production compared to in vitro ones. The leaf tissues of in vitro plantlets show little differentiation and have great stomata number compared with acclimatized plants, which reduce the number of stomata during the acclimatization process.

Hvordan øve hellige handlinger? : en profesjonsdidaktisk studie av øving av muntlige ferdigheter innenfor en norsk presteutdanning

How can the holy craft of liturgy be trained? A study of approaches to instruction in training oral skills within education of the Norwegian clergy The theme of this study is the competence of expression of clerics performing liturgies as part of their duties in the Norwegian Lutheran Church. The aim of the study is to find a teaching practice which can raise the competence in oral expression characteristic of the clergy profession. The teaching practice is explored and discussed within the context of the basic education of the clergy. The main thesis is formulated as a question: How can the holy craft of liturgy be trained? An underpinning of the study is that liturgical acts are holy, which gives these performances an aspect of otherness. This otherness constitutes a clear agreement between the students and the teacher, and between the professional and the employer. The pre-understanding of the researcher is that these liturgical oral acts are trainable, and that there is a need and a necessity to train in these skills. Three research questions are elaborated on in the explorative section of the study: • What is characteristic of a competence of expression connected to the profession? • How can this competence of expression connected to liturgical performance be developed? • What is the importance of this competence in the holy craft of liturgy for the development of a cohesive professional self-understanding? The study is based on a research and development project where the researcher as the teacher and students from one specific clergy education in Norway (MF) were the source of the empirical material. The empirical data came from practice with two external observers› logs on the coaching, video observations, of the teacher and the students› texts on the practice under study, which is liturgical performance. The researcher›s log and field notes also provide material for the analysis. This is a qualitative project and an arts education project carried out within an interpretative framework. The theoretical framework has three perspectives: a structural approach based on the system theory of Niklas Luhmann, an epistemological approach discussing forms of knowledge in practice or informing practice and an arts education approach. The results indicate that the competence in oral liturgical performance can be considered a trainable skill, and that this training can be understood as an arts education method of instruction based on meaningful communication, dramaturgical thinking and the development of authenticity. The main result from this study can be considered as articulating and sketching the contours of the field of knowledge where the students embody the meaning of the clergy profession ‒ and this articulation has an innovative potential as knowledge combining experience and theoretical understanding.