Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

A necessarily complex model to explain the biogeography of the amphibians and reptiles of Madagascar

Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe pattern, we must infer process. Inferences of process are often based on ad hoc comparisons using a single spatial predictor. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses mixed-spatial models to measure the predictive potential of combinations of hypotheses. Biodiversity patterns are estimated from 8,362 occurrence records from 745 species of Malagasy amphibians and reptiles. By incorporating 18 spatially explicit predictions of 12 major biogeographic hypotheses, we show that mixed models greatly improve our ability to explain the observed biodiversity patterns. We conclude that patterns are influenced by a combination of diversification processes rather than by a single predominant mechanism. A ‘one-size-fits-all’ model does not exist. By developing a novel method for examining and synthesizing spatial parameters such as species richness, endemism and community similarity, we demonstrate the potential of these analyses for understanding the diversification history of Madagascar’s biota.

National trends in main causes of hospitalization: a multi-cohort register study of the Finnish working-age population, 1976-2010

Principal Findings: Over the period of 35 years, the risk of hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases decreased. Hospitalization for musculoskeletal diseases increased whereas mental and behavioral hospitalizations slightly decreased. The risk of cancer hospitalization decreased marginally in men, whereas in women an upward trend was observed.

Conclusions/Significance: A considerable health transition related to hospitalizations and a shift in the utilization of health care services of working-age men and women took place in Finland between 1976 and 2010.

Background: The health transition theory argues that societal changes produce proportional changes in causes of disability and death. The aim of this study was to identify long-term changes in main causes of hospitalization in working-age population within a nation that has experienced considerable societal change.

Methodology: National trends in all-cause hospitalization and hospitalizations for the five main diagnostic categories were investigated in the data obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. The seven-cohort sample covered the period from 1976 to 2010 and consisted of 3,769,356 randomly selected Finnish residents, each cohort representing 25% sample of population aged 18 to 64 years.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Developing and evaluating the integration of Life and Social Sciences teaching to first-year Nursing and Midwifery students

Title: Evaluating the integrating of life and social sciences teaching to first-year nursing and midwifery students

Objectives: To evaluate an integrated teaching and learning approach to first-year nursing students, combining the life, social sciences and public health with a more integrated and clinical focused approach to teaching delivery

Background: Historically within the School of Nursing and Midwifery the life sciences and social sciences had been taught as separate modules with separate teaching teams. This had reflected in a somewhat dis-integrated approach to student learning and understanding without clear clinical focus on application. With focus upon student learning the teaching teams engaged with a stepped, incremental and progressive movement towards developing and delivering a more integrated structure of learning, combining the life sciences, social sciences and public health teaching and learning within the one extended first-year module. The focus was particularly on integrated understanding and clinical relevance. This paper discusses both the approach to developing the integrated model of teaching and the evaluation of that teaching.

Results: The module, combining life, social science and Public health teaching was positively evaluated by the students. Evaluations are compared and contrasted from to nursing student intakes.

Measuring non-use value of environmental goods using the contingent valuation method:problems of information and cognition and the application of cognitive questionnaire design methods

Much interest now focuses on the use of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to assess non-use value of environmental goods. The paper reviews recent literature and highlights particular problems of information provision and respondent knowledge, comprehension and cognition. These must be dealt with by economists in designing CVM surveys for eliciting non-use values. Cognitive questionnaire design methods are presented which invoke concepts from psychology and tools from cognitive survey design (focus groups and verbal reports) to reduce a complex environmnetal good into a meaningful commodity that can be valued by respondents in a contingent market. This process is illustrated with examples from the authors' own research valuing alternative afforestation programmes. -Authors

Exploring divergence between respondent and researcher definitions of the good in contingent valuation studies

In Contingent Valuation studies, researchers often base their definition of the environmental good on scientific/expert consensus. However, respondents may not hold this same commodity definition prior to the transaction. This raises questions as to the potential for staging a satisfactory transaction, based on Fischoff and Furby's (1988) criteria. Some unresolved issues regarding the provision of information to respondents to facilitate such a transaction are highlighted. In this paper, we apply content analysis to focus group discussions and develop a set of rules which take account of the non-independence of group data to explore whether researcher and respondents' prior definitions are in any way similar. We use the results to guide information provision in a subsequent questionnaire.

Functional identity and diversity of animals predict ecosystem functioning better than species-based indices

Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se.

Quantitative regulation of FLC via coordinated transcriptional initiation and elongation

The basis of quantitative regulation of gene expression is still poorly understood. In Arabidopsis thaliana, quantitative variation in expression of FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC) influences the timing of flowering. In ambient temperatures, FLC expression is quantitatively modulated by a chromatin silencing mechanism involving alternative polyadenylation of antisense transcripts. Investigation of this mechanism unexpectedly showed that RNA polymerase II (Pol II) occupancy changes at FLC did not reflect RNA fold changes. Mathematical modeling of these transcriptional dynamics predicted a tight coordination of transcriptional initiation and elongation. This prediction was validated by detailed measurements of total and chromatin-bound FLC intronic RNA, a methodology appropriate for analyzing elongation rate changes in a range of organisms. Transcription initiation was found to vary ∼ 25-fold with elongation rate varying ∼ 8- to 12-fold. Premature sense transcript termination contributed very little to expression differences. This quantitative variation in transcription was coincident with variation in H3K36me3 and H3K4me2 over the FLC gene body. We propose different chromatin states coordinately influence transcriptional initiation and elongation rates and that this coordination is likely to be a general feature of quantitative gene regulation in a chromatin context.

Is the Schwabe organ a retained larval eye? Anatomical and behavioural studies of a novel sense organ in adult leptochiton asellus (Mollusca, Polyplacophora) indicate links to larval photoreceptors

The discovery of a sensory organ, the Schwabe organ, was recently reported as a unifying feature of chitons in the order Lepidopleurida. It is a patch of pigmented tissue located on the roof of the pallial cavity, beneath the velum on either side of the mouth. The epithelium is densely innervated and contains two types of potential sensory cells. As the function of the Schwabe organ remains unknown, we have taken a cross-disciplinary approach, using anatomical, histological and behavioural techniques to understand it. In general, the pigmentation that characterises this sensory structure gradually fades after death; however, one particular concentrated pigment dot persists. This dot is positionally homologous to the larval eye in chiton trochophores, found in the same neuroanatomical location, and furthermore the metamorphic migration of the larval eye is ventral in species known to possess Schwabe organs. Here we report the presence of a discrete subsurface epithelial structure in the region of the Schwabe organ in Leptochiton asellus that histologically resembles the chiton larval eye. Behavioural experiments demonstrate that Leptochiton asellus with intact Schwabe organs actively avoid an upwelling light source, while Leptochiton asellus with surgically ablated Schwabe organs and a control species lacking the organ (members of the other extant order, Chitonida) do not (Kruskal-Wallis, H = 24.82, df = 3, p < 0.0001). We propose that the Schwabe organ represents the adult expression of the chiton larval eye, being retained and elaborated in adult lepidopleurans.

Integrating personality research and animal contest theory:Aggressiveness in the green swordtail xiphophorus helleri

Aggression occurs when individuals compete over limiting resources. While theoretical studies have long placed a strong emphasis on context-specificity of aggression, there is increasing recognition that consistent behavioural differences exist among individuals, and that aggressiveness may be an important component of individual personality. Though empirical studies tend to focus on one aspect or the other, we suggest there is merit in modelling both within- and among-individual variation in agonistic behaviour simultaneously. Here, we demonstrate how this can be achieved using multivariate linear mixed effect models. Using data from repeated mirror trials and dyadic interactions of male green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri, we show repeatable components of (co)variation in a suite of agonistic behaviour that is broadly consistent with a major axis of variation in aggressiveness. We also show that observed focal behaviour is dependent on opponent effects, which can themselves be repeatable but were more generally found to be context specific. In particular, our models show that within-individual variation in agonistic behaviour is explained, at least in part, by the relative size of a live opponent as predicted by contest theory. Finally, we suggest several additional applications of the multivariate models demonstrated here. These include testing the recently queried functional equivalence of alternative experimental approaches, (e.g., mirror trials, dyadic interaction tests) for assaying individual aggressiveness. © 2011 Wilson et al.

Spectacle design preferences among Chinese primary and secondary students and their parents: A qualitative and quantitative study

Purpose: To identify the specific characteristics making glasses designs, particularly those compatible with adjustable glasses, more or less appealing to Chinese children and their parents. Patients and Methods: Primary and secondary school children from urban and rural China with < = -1.00 diopters of bilateral myopia and their parents ranked four conventional-style frames identified by local optical shops as popular versus four child-specific frames compatible with adjustable spectacles. Scores based on the proportion of maximum possible ranking were computed for each style. Selected children and their parents also participated in Focus Groups (FGs) discussing spectacle design preference. Recordings were transcribed and coded by two independents reviewers using NVivo software. Results: Among 136 urban primary school children (age range 9-11 years), 290 rural secondary school children (11-17 years) and 16 parents, all adjustable-style frames (scores on 0-100 scale 25.7-62.4) were ranked behind all conventional frames (63.0-87.5). For eight FGs including 12 primary children, 26 secondary children and 16 parents, average kappa values for NVivo coding were 0.81 (students) and 0.70 (parents). All groups agreed that the key changes to make adjustable designs more attractive were altering the round lenses to rectangular or oval shapes and adding curved earpieces for more stable wear. The thick frames of the adjustable designs were considered stylish, and children indicated they would wear them if the lens shape were modified. Conclusions: Current adjustable lens designs are unattractive to Chinese children and their parents, though this study identified specific modifications which would make them more appealing.