Simulation and diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric moisture and surface hydrology over North America

We describe a preliminary investigation into large-scale atmospheric and surface moisture variations over North America. We compare large-scale hydrologic budgets in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) to observed precipitation and vertically integrated atmospheric moisture fluxes derived from the National Meteorological Center's operational analyses. THe GCM faithfully simulates the integrated flux divergence and P-E differences. However, the integrated moisture content is too low, and precipitation and evaporation are too high. The model produces summertime soil moisture dryness, which supports previous studies showing increased droughts under warmer conditions.

Three-dimensional direct numerical simulations of autoignition in turbulent non-premixed flows with simple and complex chemistry

3D Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) of autoignition in turbulent non-premixed flows between fuel and hotter air have been carried out using both 1-step and complex chemistry consisting of a 22 species n-heptane mechanism to investigate spontaneous ignition timing and location. The simple chemistry results showed that the previous findings from 2D DNS that ignition occurred at the most reactive mixture fraction (ξMR) and at small values of the conditional scalar dissipation rate (N|ξMR) are valid also for 3D turbulent mixing fields. Performing the same simulation many times with different realizations of the initial velocity field resulted in a very narrow statistical distribution of ignition delay time, consistent with a previous conjecture that the first appearance of ignition is correlated with the low-N content of the conditional probability density function of N. The simulations with complex chemistry for conditions outside the Negative Temperature Coefficient (NTC) regime show behaviour similar to the single-step chemistry simulations. However, in the NTC regime, the most reactive mixture fraction is very rich and ignition seems to occur at high values of scalar dissipation. Copyright © 2006 by ASME.

Coupling model uncertainty for coupled rainfall/runoff and surface water quality models in river problems

Coupled hydrology and water quality models are an important tool today, used in the understanding and management of surface water and watershed areas. Such problems are generally subject to substantial uncertainty in parameters, process understanding, and data. Component models, drawing on different data, concepts, and structures, are affected differently by each of these uncertain elements. This paper proposes a framework wherein the response of component models to their respective uncertain elements can be quantified and assessed, using a hydrological model and water quality model as two exemplars. The resulting assessments can be used to identify model coupling strategies that permit more appropriate use and calibration of individual models, and a better overall coupled model response. One key finding was that an approximate balance of water quality and hydrological model responses can be obtained using both the QUAL2E and Mike11 water quality models. The balance point, however, does not support a particularly narrow surface response (or stringent calibration criteria) with respect to the water quality calibration data, at least in the case examined here. Additionally, it is clear from the results presented that the structural source of uncertainty is at least as significant as parameter-based uncertainties in areal models. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.