Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Hybrid Method to Assess Sensitive Process Interruption Costs Due to Faults in Electric Power Distribution Networks

This paper shows a new hybrid method for risk assessment regarding interruptions in sensitive processes due to faults in electric power distribution systems. This method determines indices related to long duration interruptions and short duration voltage variations (SDVV), such as voltage sags and swells in each customer supplied by the distribution network. Frequency of such occurrences and their impact on customer processes are determined for each bus and classified according to their corresponding magnitude and duration. The method is based on information regarding network configuration, system parameters and protective devices. It randomly generates a number of fault scenarios in order to assess risk areas regarding long duration interruptions and voltage sags and swells in an especially inventive way, including frequency of events according to their magnitude and duration. Based on sensitivity curves, the method determines frequency indices regarding disruption in customer processes that represent equipment malfunction and possible process interruptions due to voltage sags and swells. Such approach allows for the assessment of the annual costs associated with each one of the evaluated power quality indices.

Desalination of water by reverse osmosis using gravitational potential energy and wind energy

This paper proposes ail alternative configuration to conventional reverse osmosis (RO) desalination systems by incorporating the use of gravitational potential energy. The proposal suggests a model that can be viewed as the energy station of a RO desalination plant. Conventionally, RO plants use a high-pressure pump, powered by electricity or fossil fuel. The function of the pump is to send a flux of saline water to a group of semi-permeable membrane modules, capable of ""filtering"" the dissolved salts. In this proposed model, we intend to achieve a flux at the inlet of the membrane modules with a pressure high enough for the desalination process, without using, either electricity or fossil fuels. To do this we divised a hybrid system that uses both gravitational potential energy and wind energy. The technical viability of the alternative was theoretically proven by deductions based on physics and mathematics.

Mechanical strength evaluation for Nd-YAG laser and electric resistance spot weld (ERSW) joint under multiaxial loading

This work presents a comparison between laser weld (LBW) and electric resistance spot weld (ERSW) processes used for assemblies of components in a body-in-white (BIW) at a world class automotive industry. It is carried out by evaluating the mechanical strength modeled both by experimental and numerical methods. An ""Arcan"" multiaxial test was designed and manufactured in order to enable 0 degrees, 45 degrees and 90 degrees directional loadings. The welded specimens were uncoated low carbon steel sheets (S-y = 170 MPa) used currently at the automotive industry, with two different thicknesses: 0.80 and 1.20 mm. A numerical analysis was carried out using the finite element method (FEM) through LS-DYNA code. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermomechanical processing for recovery of desired < 001 > fiber texture in electric motor steels

A processing route has been developed for recovering the desired lambda fiber in iron-silicon electrical steel needed for superior magnetic properties in electric motor application. The lambda fiber texture is available in directionally solidified iron-silicon steel with the < 001 > columnar grains but was lost after heavy rolling and recrystallization required for motor laminations. Two steps of light rolling each followed by recrystallization were found to largely restore the desired fiber texture. This strengthening of the < 001 > fiber texture had been predicted on the basis of the strain-induced boundary migration (SIBM) mechanism during recrystallization of lightly rolled steel from existing grains of near the ideal orientation, due to postulated low stored energies. Taylor and finite element models supported the idea of the low stored energy of the lambda fiber grains. The models also showed that the lambda fiber grains, though unstable during rolling, only rotated away from their initial orientations quite slowly.

Modeling the kinetics of the coalescence of water droplets in crude oil emulsions subject to an electric field, with the cellular automata technique

In this study, the concept of cellular automata is applied in an innovative way to simulate the separation of phases in a water/oil emulsion. The velocity of the water droplets is calculated by the balance of forces acting on a pair of droplets in a group, and cellular automata is used to simulate the whole group of droplets. Thus, it is possible to solve the problem stochastically and to show the sequence of collisions of droplets and coalescence phenomena. This methodology enables the calculation of the amount of water that can be separated from the emulsion under different operating conditions, thus enabling the process to be optimized. Comparisons between the results obtained from the developed model and the operational performance of an actual desalting unit are carried out. The accuracy observed shows that the developed model is a good representation of the actual process. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Optimization of the Topology of Electric Energy Distribution Networks by Using Algorithm Inspired on Ant Behaviors

An algorithm inspired on ant behavior is developed in order to find out the topology of an electric energy distribution network with minimum power loss. The algorithm performance is investigated in hypothetical and actual circuits. When applied in an actual distribution system of a region of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil), the solution found by the algorithm presents loss lower than the topology built by the concessionary company.

Characterisation of electric arc furnace dust generated during plain carbon steel production

Electric arc furnace (EAF) dust is a waste generated in the EAF during the steel production process. Among different wastes, EAF dust represents one of the most hazardous, since it contains heavy metals such as Zn, Fe, Cr, Cd and Pb. The goal of the present work is to characterise the waste through chemical analysis, particle size distribution, X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive spectroscopy detection and thermal analysis. The waste sample is composed essentially of spherical particles and has a very small particle size and the majority of the identified elements were Fe, Zn, Ca, Cr, Mn, K and Si. The XRD has presented compounds such as ZnO, ZnFe2O4, Fe2O3, MnO, SiO2, FeFe2O4 and MnAl2O4. According to the thermal analysis results, up to 1000 degrees C the total weight loss was similar to 5%. The results of waste characterisation are very important to these further investigations.

Allelopathic potential of bark and leaves of Esenbeckia leiocarpa Engl. (Rutaceae)

We investigated the inhibitory potential of aqueous extracts of bark and leaves of Esenbeckia leiocarpa Engl. on lettuce germination and early seedling growth. We compared the effects of four concentrations (100, 75, 50 and 25%) of each extract to water and polyethylene glycol (PEG 6000) solution controls for four replicates of 50 seeds tor germination and four replicates of ten seedlings for seedling growth. The inhibitory effects of E. leiocarpa extracts on the percentage of germination and on the germination speed seemed to be inure than simply an osmotic effect, except for the percentage of seeds germinated in bark extracts. When compared to water control. both bark and leaf extracts delayed germination, and leaf extracts also affected the percentage of germinated seeds. Leaf ex tracts of all concentrations strongly inhibited the development of seedlings and caused them some degree of abnormality; bark extracts also caused abnormalities and reduced seedling growth. Root development was more sensitive to the extracts than hypocotyl growth. The negative effects of leaf extracts on germination and seedling growth were more pronounced than those of bark extracts, and the overall effects of both extracts were positively correlated with extract concentrations.

What loggers leave behind: Impacts on big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) commercial populations and potential for post-logging recovery in the Brazilian Amazon

The sustainability of current harvest practices for high-value Meliaceae can be assessed by quantifying logging intensity and projecting growth and survival by post-logging populations over anticipated intervals between harvests. From 100%-area inventories of big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) covering 204 ha or more at eight logged and unlogged forest sites across southern Brazilian Amazonia, we report generally higher landscape-scale densities and smaller population-level mean diameters in eastern forests compared to western forests, where most commercial stocks survive. Density of trees >= 20 cm diameter varied by two orders of magnitude and peaked at 1.17 ha(-1). Size class frequency distributions appeared unimodal at two high-density sites, but were essentially arnodal or flat elsewhere; diameter increment patterns indicate that populations were multi- or all-aged. At two high-density sites, conventional logging removed 93-95% of commercial trees (>= 45 cm diameter at the time of logging), illegally eliminated 31-47% of sub-merchantable trees, and targeted trees as small as 20 cm diameter. Projected recovery by commercial stems during 30 years after conventional logging represented 9.9-37.5% of initial densities and was highly dependent on initial logging intensity and size class frequency distributions of commercial trees. We simulated post-logging recovery over the same period at all sites according to the 2003 regulatory framework for mahogany in Brazil, which raised the minimum diameter cutting limit to 60 cm and requires retention during the first harvest of 20% of commercial-sized trees. Recovery during 30 years ranged from approximately 0 to 31% over 20% retention densities at seven of eight sites. At only one site where sub-merchantable trees dominated the population did the simulated density of harvestable stems after 30 years exceed initial commercial densities. These results indicate that 80% harvest intensity will not be sustainable over multiple cutting cycles for most populations without silvicultural interventions ensuring establishment and long-term growth of artificial regeneration to augment depleted natural stocks, including repeated tending of outplanted seedlings. Without improved harvest protocols for mahogany in Brazil as explored in this paper, future commercial supplies of this species as well as other high-value tropical timbers are endangered. Rapid changes in the timber industry and land-use in the Amazon are also significant challenges to sustainable management of mahogany. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alterations in energy properties of eucalyptus wood and bark subjected to torrefaction: The potential of mass loss as a synthetic indicator

Torrefaction is a mild pyrolysis process (usually up to 300 degrees C) that changes the chemical and physical properties of biomass. This process is a possible pre-treatment prior to further processes (transport, grinding, combustion, gasification, etc) to generate energy or biofuels. In this study, three eucalyptus wood species and bark were subjected to different torrefaction conditions to determine the alterations in their structural and energy properties. The most severe treatment (280 degrees C, 5 h) causes mass losses of more than 35%, with severe damage to anatomical structure, and an increase of about 27% in the specific energy content. Bark is more sensitive to heat than wood. Energy yields are always higher than mass yields, thereby demonstrating the benefits of torrefaction in concentrating biomass energy. The overall mass loss is proposed as a relevant parameter to synthesize the effect of torrefaction conditions (temperature and duration). Accordingly, all results are summarised by analytical expressions able to predict the energy properties as a function of the overall mass loss. These expressions are intended to be used in any optimization procedure, from production in the field to the final use. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the potential distribution of the invasive tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae)

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of a species is particularly important for pests with strong invasive abilities. Tetranychus evansi Baker & Pritchard, possibly native to South America, is a spider mite pest of solanaceous crops. This mite is considered an invasive species in Africa and Europe. A CLIMEX model was developed to predict its global distribution. The model results fitted the known records of T. evansi except for some records in dry locations. Dryness as well as excess moisture stresses play important roles in limiting the spread of the mite in the tropics. In North America and Eurasia its potential distribution appears to be essentially limited by cold stress. Detailed potential distribution maps are provided for T. evansi in the Mediterranean Basin and in Japan. These two regions correspond to climatic borders for the species. Mite establishment in these areas can be explained by their relatively mild winters. The Mediterranean region is also the main area where tomato is grown in open fields in Europe and where the pest represents a threat. According to the model, the whole Mediterranean region has the potential to be extensively colonized by the mite. Wide expansion of the mite to new areas in Africa is also predicted. Agricultural issues highlighted by the modelled distribution of the pest are discussed.

Predation potential and biology of Protogamasellopsis posnaniensis Wisniewski & Hirschmann (Acari: Rhodacaridae)

Rhodacaridae are cosmopolitan mites mentioned as predators, although nothing is known about their potential as biological control agents. One of the objectives of the work reported in this paper was to evaluate the potential of Protogamasellopsis posnaniensis (Acari: Rhodacaridae) as predator of representative species of insects of the families Sciaridae (Bradysia matogrossensis (Lane)) and Thripidae (Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande)), of mites of the family Acaridae (Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank) and Rhizoglyphus echinopus (Fumouze & Robin) and of nematodes of the family Rhabditidae (Protorhabditis sp.). Another objective was to determine the biological cycle of P. posnaniensis when fed the prey on which it performed best in the preceding predation test. The study was conducted in a laboratory where the experimental units were maintained at 25 +/- 1 degrees C, 97 +/- 3% RH and in the dark. Although the predator was able to kill all prey species considered in this study, the most favorable prey were T. putrescentiae, F. occidentalis and Protorhabditis sp. Survivorship of the predator in predation tests was always 98% or higher. Life table biological parameters when the predator was fed T. putrescentiae were: R(o) = 109.29; T = 19.06 days; lambda = 1.28 e r(m) = 0.32 female/female/day. Despite preying upon larvae of B. matogrossensis, eggs of the former can also be killed by the latter. The results indicated that A posnaniensis is a promising biological control agent, deserving additional studies on its possible use for the control of soil pests. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Macroscopic root water uptake distribution using a matric flux potential approach

Hydrological models featuring root water uptake usually do not include compensation mechanisms such that reductions in uptake from dry layers are compensated by an increase in uptake from wetter layers. We developed a physically based root water uptake model with an implicit compensation mechanism. Based on an expression for the matric flux potential (M) as a function of the distance to the root, and assuming a depth-independent value of M at the root surface, uptake per layer is shown to be a function of layer bulk M, root surface M, and a weighting factor that depends on root length density and root radius. Actual transpiration can be calculated from the sum of layer uptake rates. The proposed reduction function (PRF) was built into the SWAP model, and predictions were compared to those made with the Feddes reduction function (FRF). Simulation results were tested against data from Canada (continuous spring wheat [(Triticum aestivum L.]) and Germany (spring wheat, winter barley [Hordeum vulgare L.], sugarbeet [Beta vulgaris L.], winter wheat rotation). For the Canadian data, the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for water content in the upper soil layers was very similar for FRF and PRF; for the deeper layers, RMSEP was smaller for PRF. For the German data, RMSEP was lower for PRF in the upper layers and was similar for both models in the deeper layers. In conclusion, but dependent on the properties of the data sets available for testing,the incorporation of the new reduction function into SWAP was successful, providing new capabilities for simulating compensated root water uptake without increasing the number of input parameters or degrading model performance.

Greenhouse evaluation of the potential of sorghum, pearl millet and crotalaria in the management of Meloidogyne javanica

Crop rotation can play a valuable role in managing plant parasitic nematodes, depending on the availability of profitable non-host or poor host crops. Alternatively, non-host cover crops or green manures can be used in succession to summer cash Crops for this Purpose. The aim of the current study was to evaluate, under greenhouse conditions, the host status of commercial hybrids and cultivars of grain and silage sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) for Meloidogyne javanica, and to assess the effect of sorghum on nematode population in comparison with pearl millet (poor host for M. javanica), showy crotalaria and sunn hemp (both non-hosts). Based on two experiments, it was stated that, as a rule, grain sorghum is a poor host for M. javanica, but silage sorghum is a good host. Silage sorghum `BRS 601` was an exception. In other experiments, grain sorghum, pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum `BN 2`), showy crotalaria (Crotolaria spectabilis `Comum`) and sunn hemp (C. juncea `IAC-KR-1`) reduced M. javanica population level, while silage sorghum increased the nematode density.