Land use change and nitrogen feedbacks constrain the trajectory of the land carbon sink

Our understanding of Earth's carbon climate system depends critically upon interactions between rising atmospheric CO2, changing land use, and nitrogen limitation on vegetation growth. Using a global land model, we show how these factors interact locally to generate the global land carbon sink over the past 200 years. Nitrogen constraints were alleviated by N2 fixation in the tropics and by atmospheric nitrogen deposition in extratropical regions. Nonlinear interactions between land use change and land carbon and nitrogen cycling originated from three major mechanisms: (i) a sink foregone that would have occurred without land use conversion; (ii) an accelerated response of secondary vegetation to CO2 and nitrogen, and (iii) a compounded clearance loss from deforestation. Over time, these nonlinear effects have become increasingly important and reduce the present-day net carbon sink by ~40% or 0.4 PgC yr−1.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.

Large-scale land acquisitions in Peru: Land (re)-concentration, agrarian change and reactions from rural communities

More than 40 years after the agrarian reform, Peru is experiencing a renewed process of concentration of land ownership in the hands of large-scale investors, favoring the development of a sugar cane production cluster along the northern coast. The expansion of the agricultural frontier by means of large irrigation projects – originally developed to benefit medium- and small-scale farmers – is carried out today in order to be sold to large-scale investors for the production of export crops. In the region of Piura the increasing presence of large-scale biofuel investors puts substantial pressure on land and water resources, not only changing the use of and access to land for local communities, but also generating water shortages vis-à-vis the multiple water demands of local food producers. The changes in land relations and the agro-ecosystem, the altering food production regime as well as the increasing proletarization of smallholders, is driving many locals – even those which (initially) welcomed the investment – into resistance activities against the increasing control of land, water and other natural resources in the hands of agribusinesses. The aim of this presentation is to discuss the contemporary political, social and cultural dynamics of agrarian change along the northern Peruvian coast as well as the «reactions from below» emanating from campesino communities, landless laborers, brick producers, pastoralists as well as other marginalized groups. The different strategies, forms and practices of resistance with the goal of the «protection of the territory» shall be explored as well as the reasons for their rather scattered occurrence and the lack of alliances on the land issue. This input shall make a contribution to the on-going debate on individual and communal property rights and the question of what is best in terms of collective defense against land grabbing.

In Utero Exposure to Antiretroviral Drugs: Effect on Birth Weight and Growth Among HIV-exposed Uninfected Children in Brazil.

BACKGROUND There are concerns about the effects of in utero exposure to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) on the development of HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) children. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether in utero exposure to ARVs is associated with lower birth weight/height and reduced growth during the first 2 years of life. METHODS This cohort study was conducted among HEU infants born between 1996 and 2010 in Tertiary children's hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Weight was measured by mechanical scale, and height was measured by measuring board. Z-scores for weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length were calculated. We modeled trajectories by mixed-effects models and adjusted for mother's age, CD4 cell count, viral load, year of birth and family income. RESULTS A total of 588 HEU infants were included of whom 155 (26%) were not exposed to ARVs, 114 (19%) were exposed early (first trimester) and 319 (54%) later. WAZ were lower among infants exposed early compared with infants exposed later: adjusted differences were -0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.99 to -0.04, P = 0.02) at birth and -0.22 (95% CI: -0.47 to 0.04, P = 0.10) during follow-up. LAZ were lower during follow-up: -0.35 (95% CI: -0.63 to -0.08, P = 0.01). There were no differences in weight-for-length scores. Z-scores of infants exposed late during pregnancy were similar to unexposed infants. CONCLUSIONS In HEU children, early exposure to ARVs was associated with lower WAZ at birth and lower LAZ up to 2 years of life. Growth of HEU children needs to be monitored closely.

Corruption and Growth Under Weak Identification

The goal of this paper is to revisit the influential work of Mauro [1995] focusing on the strength of his results under weak identification. He finds a negative impact of corruption on investment and economic growth that appears to be robust to endogeneity when using two-stage least squares (2SLS). Since the inception of Mauro [1995], much literature has focused on 2SLS methods revealing the dangers of estimation and thus inference under weak identification. We reproduce the original results of Mauro [1995] with a high level of confidence and show that the instrument used in the original work is in fact 'weak' as defined by Staiger and Stock [1997]. Thus we update the analysis using a test statistic robust to weak instruments. Our results suggest that under Mauro's original model there is a high probability that the parameters of interest are locally almost unidentified in multivariate specifications. To address this problem, we also investigate other instruments commonly used in the corruption literature and obtain similar results.

Technology Creation, Diffusion, and Growth Cycles

Standard macroeconomic models that assume an exogenous stochastic process for multifactor productivity offer the interpretation that recessions are the result of ''bad news'' (technological regress) and expansions are the result of ''good news'' (technological advancement). The view taken here is that both expansions and recessions are the result of ''good news'' in the sense that in both cases, aggregate production possibilities have increased. Recessions can be thought of as the transition from one technological frontier to the next.

THE BACON CHOW STUDY: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFECTIOUS ILLNESS AND GROWTH OF INFANTS

Multiple dietary deficiencies and high rates of infectious illness are major health problems leading to malnutrition and limitation of growth of children in developing countries. Longitudinal studies which provide information on illness incidence and growth velocity are needed in order to untangle the complex interrelationship between nutrition, illness and growth. From 1967 to 1973, researchers led by Dr. Bacon Chow of the Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene undertook a quasi-experimental prospective study in Suilin Township, Taiwan to determine the effects of a nutritional supplement to the diets of pregnant and lactating women on the growth, development and resistance to disease of their offspring. This dissertation presents results from the analysis of infant morbidity and postnatal growth.^ Maternal nutritional supplementation has no apparent effect on the postnatal growth or morbidity of infants. Significant sex differences exist in growth response to illness and in illness susceptibility. Male infants have more diarrhea and upper respiratory illness. Respiratory illness is positively associated with growth rate in weight in the first semester of life. Diarrhea is significantly negatively associated with growth in length in the second semester. Small-for-date infants are more susceptible to illness in general and have a different pattern of growth response than large-for-date infants.^ Principal components analysis of illness data is shown to be an effective technique for making more precise use of ambiguous morbidity data. Multiple regression with component scores is an accurate method for estimating variance in growth rate predicted by indepenent illness variables. A model is advanced in which initial postnatal growth rate determines subsequent susceptibility to nutritional stress and infection. Initial growth rate is a function of prenatal nutrition, but is not significantly affected by maternal supplementation during gestation or lactation. Critical evaluation is made of nutritional supplementation programs which do not afford disease control.^

Environmental characteristics, and growth traits and leaf chemistry of tundra plants in a warming experiment at Alexandra Fiord

Understanding plant trait responses to elevated temperatures in the Arctic is critical in light of recent and continuing climate change, especially because these traits act as key mechanisms in climate-vegetation feedbacks. Since 1992, we have artificially warmed three plant communities at Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut, Canada (79°N). In each of the communities, we used open-top chambers (OTCs) to passively warm vegetation by 1-2 °C. In the summer of 2008, we investigated the intraspecific trait responses of five key species to 16 years of continuous warming. We examined eight traits that quantify different aspects of plant performance: leaf size, specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), plant height, leaf carbon concentration, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf carbon isotope discrimination (LCID), and leaf d15N. Long-term artificial warming affected five traits, including at least one trait in every species studied. The evergreen shrub Cassiope tetragona responded most frequently (increased leaf size and plant height/decreased SLA, leaf carbon concentration, and LCID), followed by the deciduous shrub Salix arctica (increased leaf size and plant height/decreased SLA) and the evergreen shrub Dryas integrifolia (increased leaf size and plant height/decreased LCID), the forb Oxyria digyna (increased leaf size and plant height), and the sedge Eriophorum angustifolium spp. triste (decreased leaf carbon concentration). Warming did not affect d15N, leaf nitrogen concentration, or LDMC. Overall, growth traits were more sensitive to warming than leaf chemistry traits. Notably, we found that responses to warming were sustained, even after many years of treatment. Our work suggests that tundra plants in the High Arctic will show a multifaceted response to warming, often including taller shoots with larger leaves.

Experimental data on photophysiology and growth rates of Pararotalia calcariformata

The eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot of biological invasions. Numerous species of Indo-pacific origin have colonized the Mediterranean in recent times, including tropical symbiont-bearing foraminifera. Among these is the species Pararotalia calcariformata. Unlike other invasive foraminifera, this species has been discovered only two decades ago and is restricted to the eastern Mediterranean coast. Combining ecological, genetic and physiological observations, we attempt to explain the recent invasion of this species in the Mediterranean Sea. Using morphological and genetic data, we confirm the species attribution to P. calcariformata McCulloch 1977 and identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We document photosynthetic activity of its endosymbionts using Pulse Amplitude Modulated Fluorometry and test the effects of elevated temperatures on growth rates of asexual offspring. The culturing of asexual offspring for 120 days shows a 30-day period of rapid growth followed by a period of slower growth. A subsequent 48-day temperature sensitivity experiment indicates a similar developmental pathway and high growth rate at 28°C, whereas an almost complete inhibition of growth was observed at 20°C and 35°C. This indicates that the offspring of this species may have lower tolerance to cold temperatures than what would be expected for species native to the Mediterranean. We expand this hypothesis by applying a Species Distribution Model (SDM) based on modern occurrences in the Mediterranean using three environmental variables: irradiance, turbidity and yearly minimum temperature. The model reproduces the observed restricted distribution and indicates that the range of the species will drastically expand westwards under future global change scenarios. We conclude that P. calcariformata established a population in the Levant because of the recent warming in the region. In line with observations from other groups of organisms, our results indicate that continued warming of the eastern Mediterranean will facilitate the invasion of more tropical marine taxa into the Mediterranean, disturbing local biodiversity and ecosystem structure.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, POC, PIC, TPC, SPM, N, TEP and growth rate during experiments with coccolithophores Emiliania huxleyi (AC472), Calcidiscus leptoporus (AC370) and Syracosphaera pulchra (AC418) during experiments, 2011

The response of three coccolithophores (Emiliania huxleyi, Calcidiscus leptoporus and Syracosphaera pulchra) to elevated partial pressure (pCO2) of carbon dioxide was investigated in batch cultures. For the first time, we also report on the response of the non calcifying (haploid) life stage of these three species. The growth rate, cell size, inorganic (PIC) and organic carbon (POC) of both life stages were measured at two different pCO2 (400and 760 ppm) and their organic and inorganic carbon production calculated. The two lifestages within the same species generally exhibited a similar response to elevated pCO2, theresponse of the haploid stage being often more pronounced than that of the diploid stage. Thegrowth rate was consistently higher at higher pCO2 but the response of other processes varied among species. The calcification rate of C. leptoporus and of S. pulchra did not change at elevated pCO2 while increased in E. huxleyi. The POC production as well as the cell size of both life stages of S. pulchra and of the haploid stage of E. huxleyi markedly decreased at elevated pCO2. It remained unaltered in the diploid stage of E. huxleyi and C. leptoporus and increased in the haploid stage of the latter. The PIC:POC ratio increased in E. huxleyi and was constant in C. leptoporus and S. pulchra. These results suggest that the non-calcifying stage, is more responsive than the calcifying stage and that the most versatile genera will proliferate in a more acidic ocean rather than all coccolithophores will decline.

Seawater chemistry, nutrients, chlorophyll a, and growth rate of Phaeocystis globosa during experiments

Phaeocystis globosa (Prymnesiophyceae) is an ecologically dominating phytoplankton species in many areas around the world. It plays an important role in both the global sulfur and carbon cycles, by the production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) and the drawdown of inorganic carbon. Phaeocystis globosa has a polymorphic life cycle and is considered to be a harmful algal bloom (HAB) forming species. All these aspects make this an interesting species to study the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, due to anthropogenic carbon emissions. Here, the combined effects of three different dissolved carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2(aq)) (low: 4 µmol/kg, intermediate: 6-10 µmol/kg and high CO2(aq): 21-24 µmol/kg) and two different light intensities (low light, suboptimal: 80 µmol photons/m**2/s and high light, light saturated: 240 µmol photons/m**2/s) are reported. The experiments demonstrated that the specific growth rate of P. globosa in the high light cultures decreased with increasing CO2(aq) from 1.4 to 1.1 /d in the low and high CO2 cultures, respectively. Concurrently, the photosynthetic efficiency (Fv/Fm) increased with increasing CO2(aq) from 0.56 to 0.66. The different light conditions affected photosynthetic efficiency and cellular chlorophyll a concentrations, both of which were lower in the high light cultures as compared to the low light cultures. These results suggest that in future inorganic carbon enriched oceans, P. globosa will become less competitive and feedback mechanisms to global change may decrease in strength.