Modelagem do crescimento e produção aplicado ao manejo florestal na Amazônia brasileira

A floresta Amazônica possui um papel ambiental, social e econômico importante para a região, para o país e para o mundo. Dessa forma, técnicas de exploração que visam a diminuição dos impactos causados à floresta são essenciais. Com isso, o objetivo dessa tese é comparar a Exploração de Impacto Reduzido com a Exploração Convencional na Amazônia brasileira através de modelos empíricos de árvore individual de crescimento e produção. O experimento foi instalado na fazenda Agrossete, localizada em Paragominas - PA. Em 1993, três áreas dessa fazenda foram selecionadas para exploração. Na primeira área, 105 hectares foram explorados através da Exploração de Impacto Reduzido. Na segunda área, 75 hectares foram submetidos à Exploração Convencional. E, por fim, a terceira área foi mantida como área testemunha. A coleta de dados de diâmetro à altura do peito e a identificação das espécies dentro de uma parcela de 24,5 hectares, instalada aleatoriamente em cada área, foi realizada nos anos de 1993 (antes da colheita), 1994 (seis meses depois da colheita), 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006 e 2009. Dessa forma, as três áreas foram comparadas através do ajuste de um modelo de incremento diamétrico, considerando que efeito estocástico podia assumir outras quatro distribuições além da distribuição normal, de um modelo de probabilidade de mortalidade e de um modelo de probabilidade de recrutamento. O comportamento do incremento diamétrico indicou que as áreas que foram submetidas a exploração possuem o mesmo comportamento em quase todos os grupos de espécies, com exceção do grupo de espécies intermediárias. Os indivíduos que são submetidos a exploração possuem um maior crescimento em diâmetros quando comparados com área que não sofreu exploração. Além disso, assumir o efeito estocástico com distribuição Weibull melhorou o ajuste dos modelos. Em relação à probabilidade de mortalidade, novamente as áreas que sofreram exploração possuem comportamento semelhante quanto à mortalidade, mas diferente da área que não foi explorada, sendo que os indivíduos localizados nas áreas exploradas possuem uma maior probabilidade de morte em relação aos presentes na área não explorada. Os modelos de probabilidade de recrutamento indicaram diferença apenas entre as áreas exploradas e a área controle. Sendo que, as áreas exploradas apresentaram uma maior taxa de recrumento em comparação a área não explorada. Portanto, o comportamento individual das árvores após a exploração é o mesmo na Exploração Convencional e na Exploração de Impacto Reduzido.

Production and Electrical Characterization of Low Density Polyethylene-based Micro- and Nano-dielectrics containing Graphene Oxide, Functionalized Graphene and Carbon Black additives

Oggigiorno la ricerca di nuovi materiali per gradatori di campo da impiegarsi in accessori di cavi ha iniziato a studiare alcuni materiali nano dielettrici con proprietà elettriche non lineari con la tensione ed aventi proprietà migliorate rispetto al materiale base. Per questo motivo in questo elaborato si sono studiati materiali nanostrutturati a base di polietilene a bassa densità (LDPE) contenenti nano polveri di grafene funzionalizzato (G*), ossido di grafene (GO) e carbon black (CB). Il primo obiettivo è stato quello di selezionare e ottimizzare i metodi di fabbricazione dei provini. La procedura di produzione è suddivisa in due parti. Nella prima parte è stata utilizzatala tecnica del ball-milling, mentre nella seconda un pressa termica (thermal pressing). Mediante la spettroscopia dielettrica a banda larga (BDS) si sono misurate le componenti reali e immaginarie della permettività e il modulo della conducibilità del materiale, in tensione alternata. Il miglioramento delle proprietà rispetto al provino di base composto dal solo polietilene si sono ottenute quando il quantitativo delle nanopolveri era maggiore. Le misure sono state effettuate sia a 3 V che a 1 kV. Attraverso misurazioni di termogravimetria (TGA) si è osservato l’aumento della resistenza termica di tutti i provini, soprattutto nel caso quando la % di nanopolveri è maggiore. Per i provini LDPE + 0.3 wt% GO e LDPE + 0.3 wt% G* si è misurata la resistenza alle scariche parziali attraverso la valutazione dell’erosione superficiale dei provini. Per il provino contenente G* è stato registrato una diminuzione del 22% del volume eroso, rispetto al materiale base, mentre per quello contenente GO non vi sono state variazioni significative. Infine si è ricercata la resistenza al breakdown di questi ultimi tre provini sopra citati. Per la caratterizzazione si è fatto uso della distribuzione di Weibull. Lo scale parameter α risulta aumentare solo per il provino LDPE + 0.3 wt% G*.

Modeling of Self-similar Traffic

Modeling of self-similar traffic is performed for the queuing system of G/M/1/K type using Weibull distribution. To study the self-similar traffic the simulation model is developed by using SIMULINK software package in MATLAB environment. Approximation of self-similar traffic on the basis of spline functions. Modeling self-similar traffic is carried outfor QS of W/M/1/K type using the Weibull distribution. Initial data are: the value of Hurst parameter H=0,65, the shape parameter of the distribution curve α≈0,7 and distribution parameter β≈0,0099. Considering that the self-similar traffic is characterized by the presence of "splashes" and long-termdependence between the moments of requests arrival in this study under given initial data it is reasonable to use linear interpolation splines.

(Table 1) Ice floe size and other characteristics during aerial observations in Prydz Bay, Antarctica

On the basis of aerial photographs of sea ice floes in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of Prydz Bay acquired from December 2004 to February 2005 during the 21st Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition, image processing techniques are employed to extract some geometric parameters of floes from two merged transects covering the whole MIZ. Variations of these parameters with the distance into the MIZ are then obtained. Different parameters of floe size, namely area, perimeter, and mean caliper diameter (MCD), follow three similar stages of increasing, flat and increasing again, with distance from the open ocean. Floe shape parameters (roundness and the ratio of perimeter to MCD), however, have less significant variations than that of floe size. Then, to modify the deviation of the cumulative floe size distribution from the ideal power law, an upper truncated power-law function and a Weibull function are used, and four calculated parameters of the above functions are found to be important descriptors of the evolution of floe size distribution in the MIZ. Among them, Lr of the upper truncated power-law function indicates the upper limit of floe size and roughly equals the maximum floe size in each square sample area. L0 in the Weibull distribution shows an increasing proportion of larger floes in squares farther from the open ocean and roughly equals the mean floe size. D in the upper truncated power-law function is closely associated with the degree of confinement during ice breakup. Its decrease with the distance into MIZ indicates the weakening of confinement conditions on floes owing to wave attenuation. The gamma of the Weibull distribution characterizes the degree of homogeneity in a data set. It also decreases with distance into MIZ, implying that floe size distributes increase in range. Finally, a statistical test on floe size is performed to divide the whole MIZ into three distinct zones made up of floes of quite different characteristics. This zonal structure of floe size also agrees well with the trends of floe shape and floe size distribution, and is believed to be a straightforward result of wave-ice interaction in the MIZ.

Sveriges historia : från äldsta tid till våra dagar.

Includes bibliographical references and index (vol. 6).

Damage by eutectic particle cracking in aluminum casting alloys A356/357

The strain dependence of particle cracking in aluminum alloys A356/357 in the T6 temper has been studied in a range of microstructures produced by varying solidification rate and Mg content, and by chemical (Sr) modification of the eutectic silicon. The damage accumulates linearly with the applied strain for all microstructures, but the rate depends on the secondary dendrite arm spacing and modification state. Large and elongated eutectic silicon particles in the unmodified alloys and large pi-phase (Al9FeMg3Si5) particles in alloy A357 show the greatest tendency to cracking. In alloy A356, cracking of eutectic silicon particles dominates the accumulation of damage while cracking of Fe-rich particles is relatively unimportant. However, in alloy A357, especially with Sr modification, cracking of the large pi-phase intermetallics accounts for the majority of damage at low and intermediate strains but becomes comparable with silicon particle cracking at large strains. Fracture occurs when the volume fraction of cracked particles (eutectic silicon and Fe-rich intermetallics combined) approximates 45 pct of the total particle volume fraction or when the number fraction of cracked particles is about 20 pct. The results are discussed in terms of Weibull statistics and existing models for dispersion hardening.

Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Heavy tails, importance sampling and cross-entropy

We consider the problem of estimating P(Yi + (...) + Y-n > x) by importance sampling when the Yi are i.i.d. and heavy-tailed. The idea is to exploit the cross-entropy method as a toot for choosing good parameters in the importance sampling distribution; in doing so, we use the asymptotic description that given P(Y-1 + (...) + Y-n > x), n - 1 of the Yi have distribution F and one the conditional distribution of Y given Y > x. We show in some specific parametric examples (Pareto and Weibull) how this leads to precise answers which, as demonstrated numerically, are close to being variance minimal within the parametric class under consideration. Related problems for M/G/l and GI/G/l queues are also discussed.

Improved algorithms for rare event simulation with heavy tails

The estimation of P(S-n > u) by simulation, where S, is the sum of independent. identically distributed random varibles Y-1,..., Y-n, is of importance in many applications. We propose two simulation estimators based upon the identity P(S-n > u) = nP(S, > u, M-n = Y-n), where M-n = max(Y-1,..., Y-n). One estimator uses importance sampling (for Y-n only), and the other uses conditional Monte Carlo conditioning upon Y1,..., Yn-1. Properties of the relative error of the estimators are derived and a numerical study given in terms of the M/G/1 queue in which n is replaced by an independent geometric random variable N. The conclusion is that the new estimators compare extremely favorably with previous ones. In particular, the conditional Monte Carlo estimator is the first heavy-tailed example of an estimator with bounded relative error. Further improvements are obtained in the random-N case, by incorporating control variates and stratification techniques into the new estimation procedures.

Maintenance strategies affecting equipment performance

Proper maintenance of plant items is crucial for the safe and profitable operation of process plants, The relevant maintenance policies fall into the following four categories: (i) preventivejopportunistic/breakdown replacement policies, (ii) inspection/inspection-repair-replacernent policies, (iii) restorative maintenance policies, and (iv) condition based maintenance policies, For correlating failure times of component equipnent and complete systems, the Weibull failure distribution has been used, A new powerful method, SEQLIM, has been proposed for the estimation of the Weibull parameters; particularly, when maintenance records contain very few failures and many successful operation times. When a system consists of a number of replaceable, ageing components, an opporturistic replacernent policy has been found to be cost-effective, A simple opportunistic rrodel has been developed. Inspection models with various objective functions have been investigated, It was found that, on the assumption of a negative exponential failure distribution, all models converge to the same optimal inspection interval; provided the safety components are very reliable and the demand rate is low, When deterioration becomes a contributory factor to same failures, periodic inspections, calculated from above models, are too frequent, A case of safety trip systems has been studied, A highly effective restorative maintenance policy can be developed if the performance of the equipment under this category can be related to some predictive modelling. A novel fouling model has been proposed to determine cleaning strategies of condensers, Condition-based maintenance policies have been investigated. A simple gauge has been designed for condition monitoring of relief valve springs. A typical case of an exothermic inert gas generation plant has been studied, to demonstrate how various policies can be applied to devise overall maintenance actions.

Interocular masking and summation indicate two stages of divisive contrast gain control

Our understanding of early spatial vision owes much to contrast masking and summation paradigms. In particular, the deep region of facilitation at low mask contrasts is thought to indicate a rapidly accelerating contrast transducer (eg a square-law or greater). In experiment 1, we tapped an early stage of this process by measuring monocular and binocular thresholds for patches of 1 cycle deg-1 sine-wave grating. Threshold ratios were around 1.7, implying a nearly linear transducer with an exponent around 1.3. With this form of transducer, two previous models (Legge, 1984 Vision Research 24 385 - 394; Meese et al, 2004 Perception 33 Supplement, 41) failed to fit the monocular, binocular, and dichoptic masking functions measured in experiment 2. However, a new model with two-stages of divisive gain control fits the data very well. Stage 1 incorporates nearly linear monocular transducers (to account for the high level of binocular summation and slight dichoptic facilitation), and monocular and interocular suppression (to fit the profound 42 Oral presentations: Spatial vision Thursday dichoptic masking). Stage 2 incorporates steeply accelerating transduction (to fit the deep regions of monocular and binocular facilitation), and binocular summation and suppression (to fit the monocular and binocular masking). With all model parameters fixed from the discrimination thresholds, we examined the slopes of the psychometric functions. The monocular and binocular slopes were steep (Weibull ߘ3-4) at very low mask contrasts and shallow (ߘ1.2) at all higher contrasts, as predicted by all three models. The dichoptic slopes were steep (ߘ3-4) at very low contrasts, and very steep (ß>5.5) at high contrasts (confirming Meese et al, loco cit.). A crucial new result was that intermediate dichoptic mask contrasts produced shallow slopes (ߘ2). Only the two-stage model predicted the observed pattern of slope variation, so providing good empirical support for a two-stage process of binocular contrast transduction. [Supported by EPSRC GR/S74515/01]

Binocular summation at contrast threshold:a new look

Contrast sensitivity is better with two eyes than one. The standard view is that thresholds are about 1.4 (v2) times better with two eyes, and that this arises from monocular responses that, near threshold, are proportional to the square of contrast, followed by binocular summation of the two monocular signals. However, estimates of the threshold ratio in the literature vary from about 1.2 to 1.9, and many early studies had methodological weaknesses. We collected extensive new data, and applied a general model of binocular summation to interpret the threshold ratio. We used horizontal gratings (0.25 - 4 cycles deg-1) flickering sinusoidally (1 - 16 Hz), presented to one or both eyes through frame-alternating ferroelectric goggles with negligible cross-talk, and used a 2AFC staircase method to estimate contrast thresholds and psychometric slopes. Four naive observers completed 20 000 trials each, and their mean threshold ratios were 1.63, 1.69, 1.71, 1.81 - grand mean 1.71 - well above the classical v2. Mean ratios tended to be slightly lower (~1.60) at low spatial or high temporal frequencies. We modelled contrast detection very simply by assuming a single binocular mechanism whose response is proportional to (Lm + Rm) p, followed by fixed additive noise, where L,R are contrasts in the left and right eyes, and m, p are constants. Contrast-gain-control effects were assumed to be negligible near threshold. On this model the threshold ratio is 2(?1/m), implying that m=1.3 on average, while the Weibull psychometric slope (median 3.28) equals 1.247mp, yielding p=2.0. Together, the model and data suggest that, at low contrasts across a wide spatiotemporal frequency range, monocular pathways are nearly linear in their contrast response (m close to 1), while a strongly accelerating nonlinearity (p=2, a 'soft threshold') occurs after binocular summation. [Supported by EPSRC project grant GR/S74515/01]

Contrast discrimination with simultaneous monocular and dichoptic masks

In experiments reported elsewhere at this conference, we have revealed two striking results concerning binocular interactions in a masking paradigm. First, at low mask contrasts, a dichoptic masking grating produces a small facilitatory effect on the detection of a similar test grating. Second, the psychometric slope for dichoptic masking starts high (Weibull ß~4) at detection threshold, becomes low (ß~1.2) in the facilitatory region, and then unusually steep at high mask contrasts (ß~5.5). Neither of these results is consistent with Legge's (1984 Vision Research 24 385 - 394) model of binocular summation, but they are predicted by a two-stage gain control model in which interocular suppression precedes binocular summation. Here, we pose a further challenge for this model by using a 'twin-mask' paradigm (cf Foley, 1994 Journal of the Optical Society of America A 11 1710 - 1719). In 2AFC experiments, observers detected a patch of grating (1 cycle deg-1, 200 ms) presented to one eye in the presence of a pedestal in the same eye and a spatially identical mask in the other eye. The pedestal and mask contrasts varied independently, producing a two-dimensional masking space in which the orthogonal axes (10X10 contrasts) represent conventional dichoptic and monocular masking. The resulting surface (100 thresholds) confirmed and extended the observations above, and fixed the six parameters in the model, which fitted the data well. With no adjustment of parameters, the model described performance in a further experiment where mask and test were presented to both eyes. Moreover, in both model and data, binocular summation was greater than a factor of v2 at detection threshold. We conclude that this two-stage nonlinear model, with interocular suppression, gives a good account of early binocular processes in the perception of contrast. [Supported by EPSRC Grant Reference: GR/S74515/01]

The separation of secondary oil-water dispersions in particulate beds

The literature relating to haze formation, methods of separation, coalescence mechanisms, and models by which droplets <100 μm are collected, coalesced and transferred, have been reviewed with particular reference to particulate bed coalescers. The separation of secondary oil-water dispersions was studied experimentally using packed beds of monosized glass ballotini particles. The variables investigated were superficial velocity, bed depth, particle size, and the phase ratio and drop size distribution of inlet secondary dispersion. A modified pump loop was used to generate secondary dispersions of toluene or Clairsol 350 in water with phase ratios between 0.5-6.0 v/v%.Inlet drop size distributions were determined using a Malvern Particle Size Analyser;effluent, coalesced droplets were sized by photography. Single phase flow pressure drop data were correlated by means of a Carman-Kozeny type equation. Correlations were obtained relating single and two phase pressure drops, as (ΔP2/μc)/ΔP1/μd) = kp Ua Lb dcc dpd Cine A flow equation was derived to correlate the two phase pressure drop data as, ΔP2/(ρcU2) = 8.64*107 [dc/D]-0.27 [L/D]0.71 [dp/D]-0.17 [NRe]1.5 [e1]-0.14 [Cin]0.26  In a comparison between functions to characterise the inlet drop size distributions a modification of the Weibull function provided the best fit of experimental data. The general mean drop diameter was correlated by: q_p q_p p_q /β      Γ ((q-3/β) +1) d qp = d fr  .α        Γ ((P-3/β +1 The measured and predicted mean inlet drop diameters agreed within ±15%. Secondary dispersion separation depends largely upon drop capture within a bed. A theoretical analysis of drop capture mechanisms in this work indicated that indirect interception and London-van der Waal's mechanisms predominate. Mathematical models of dispersed phase concentration m the bed were developed by considering drop motion to be analogous to molecular diffusion.The number of possible channels in a bed was predicted from a model in which the pores comprised randomly-interconnected passage-ways between adjacent packing elements and axial flow occured in cylinders on an equilateral triangular pitch. An expression was derived for length of service channels in a queuing system leading to the prediction of filter coefficients. The insight provided into the mechanisms of drop collection and travel, and the correlations of operating parameters, should assist design of industrial particulate bed coalescers.

The slope of the psychometric function and non-stationarity of thresholds in spatiotemporal contrast vision

The slope of the two-interval, forced-choice psychometric function (e.g. the Weibull parameter, ß) provides valuable information about the relationship between contrast sensitivity and signal strength. However, little is known about how or whether ß varies with stimulus parameters such as spatiotemporal frequency and stimulus size and shape. A second unresolved issue concerns the best way to estimate the slope of the psychometric function. For example, if an observer is non-stationary (e.g. their threshold drifts between experimental sessions), ß will be underestimated if curve fitting is performed after collapsing the data across experimental sessions. We measured psychometric functions for 2 experienced observers for 14 different spatiotemporal configurations of pulsed or flickering grating patches and bars on each of 8 days. We found ß ˜ 3 to be fairly constant across almost all conditions, consistent with a fixed nonlinear contrast transducer and/or a constant level of intrinsic stimulus uncertainty (e.g. a square law transducer and a low level of intrinsic uncertainty). Our analysis showed that estimating a single ß from results averaged over several experimental sessions was slightly more accurate than averaging multiple estimates from several experimental sessions. However, the small levels of non-stationarity (SD ˜ 0.8 dB) meant that the difference between the estimates was, in practice, negligible.