The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

Videodensitometric analysis of advanced carotid plaque: correlation with MMP-9 and TIMP-1 expression

Background: Matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) and tissue inhibitor of MMP (TIMP) promote derangement of the extracellular matrix, which is ultimately reflected in plaque images seen on ultrasound. Videodensitometry can identify structural disturbances in plaques. Objectives: To establish the correlations between values determined using videodensitometry in B-mode ultrasound images of advanced carotid plaques and the total expression of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 in these removed plaques. Methods: Thirty patients underwent ultrasonic tissue characterization of carotid plaques before surgery, using mean gray level (MGL), energy, entropy and homogeneity. Each patient was assigned preoperatively to one of 2 groups: group I, symptomatic patients (n = 16; 12 males; mean age 66.7 +/- 6.8 years), and group II, asymptomatic patients (n = 14; 8 males; mean age 67.6 +/- 6.81 years). Tissue specimens were analyzed for MMP-9 and TIMP-1 expression. Nine carotid arteries were used as normal tissue controls. Results: MMP-9 expression levels were elevated in group II and in normal tissues compared to group I (p < 0.001). TIMP-1 levels were higher in group II than in group I, and significantly higher in normal tissues than in group I (p = 0.039). The MGL was higher in group II compared to group I (p = 0.038). Energy had greater values in group II compared to group I (p = 0.02). There were no differences between patient groups in homogeneity and entropy. Energy positively correlated with MMP-9 and TIMP-1 expression (p = 0.012 and p = 0.031 respectively). Homogeneity positively correlated with MMP-9 and TIMP-1 expression (p = 0.034 and p = 0.047 respectively). There were no correlations between protein expression and MGL or entropy. Conclusions: Videodensitometric computer analysis of ultrasound scanning images can be used to identify stable carotid plaques, which have higher total expression levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 than unstable plaques.

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

High spatial resolution spectroscopy of W51IRS 2E and IRS 2W: Two very massive young stars in early formation stages

We present K-band spectra of the near infrared counterparts to IRS 2E and IRS 2W which is associated with the ultracompact H II region W51d, both of them embedded sources in the Galactic compact H II region W51 IRS 2. The high spatial resolution observations were obtained with the laser guide star facility and Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS) mounted at the Gemini-North observatory. The spectrum of the ionizing source of W51d shows the photospheric features N III ( 21155 angstrom) in emission and He II ( 21897 angstrom) in absorption which lead us to classify it as a young O3 type star. We detected CO overtone in emission at 23000 angstrom in the spectrum of IRS 2E, suggesting that it is a massive young object still surrounded by an accretion disk, probably transitioning from the hot core phase to an ultracompact H II region.

Fossil groups in the Millennium simulation Their environment and its evolution

Context. Fossil systems are defined to be X- ray bright galaxy groups ( or clusters) with a two- magnitude difference between their two brightest galaxies within half the projected virial radius, and represent an interesting extreme of the population of galaxy agglomerations. However, the physical conditions and processes leading to their formation are still poorly constrained. Aims. We compare the outskirts of fossil systems with that of normal groups to understand whether environmental conditions play a significant role in their formation. We study the groups of galaxies in both, numerical simulations and observations. Methods. We use a variety of statistical tools including the spatial cross- correlation function and the local density parameter Delta(5) to probe differences in the density and structure of the environments of "" normal"" and "" fossil"" systems in the Millennium simulation. Results. We find that the number density of galaxies surrounding fossil systems evolves from greater than that observed around normal systems at z = 0.69, to lower than the normal systems by z = 0. Both fossil and normal systems exhibit an increment in their otherwise radially declining local density measure (Delta(5)) at distances of order 2.5 r(vir) from the system centre. We show that this increment is more noticeable for fossil systems than normal systems and demonstrate that this difference is linked to the earlier formation epoch of fossil groups. Despite the importance of the assembly time, we show that the environment is different for fossil and non- fossil systems with similar masses and formation times along their evolution. We also confirm that the physical characteristics identified in the Millennium simulation can also be detected in SDSS observations. Conclusions. Our results confirm the commonly held belief that fossil systems assembled earlier than normal systems but also show that the surroundings of fossil groups could be responsible for the formation of their large magnitude gap.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Topology Studies of Hydrodynamics Using Two-Particle Correlation Analysis

The effects of fluctuating initial conditions are studied in the context of relativistic heavy ion collisions where a rapidly evolving system is formed. Two-particle correlation analysis is applied to events generated with the NEXSPHERIO hydrodynamic code, starting with fluctuating nonsmooth initial conditions (IC). The results show that the nonsmoothness in the IC survives the hydroevolution and can be seen as topological features of the angular correlation function of the particles emerging from the evolving system. A long range correlation is observed in the longitudinal direction and in the azimuthal direction a double peak structure is observed in the opposite direction to the trigger particle. This analysis provides clear evidence that these are signatures of the combined effect of tubular structures present in the IC and the proceeding collective dynamics of the hot and dense medium.

Three-Particle Coincidence of the Long Range Pseudorapidity Correlation in High Energy Nucleus-Nucleus Collisions

We report the first three-particle coincidence measurement in pseudorapidity (Delta eta) between a high transverse momentum (p(perpendicular to)) trigger particle and two lower p(perpendicular to) associated particles within azimuth |Delta phi| < 0.7 in root s(NN) = 200 GeV d + Au and Au + Au collisions. Charge ordering properties are exploited to separate the jetlike component and the ridge (long range Delta eta correlation). The results indicate that the correlation of ridge particles are uniform not only with respect to the trigger particle but also between themselves event by event in our measured Delta eta. In addition, the production of the ridge appears to be uncorrelated to the presence of the narrow jetlike component.

Pion femtoscopy in p plus p collisions at root s=200 GeV

The STAR Collaboration at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider has measured two-pion correlation functions from p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV. Spatial scales are extracted via a femtoscopic analysis of the correlations, though this analysis is complicated by the presence of strong nonfemtoscopic effects. Our results are put into the context of the world data set of femtoscopy in hadron-hadron collisions. We present the first direct comparison of femtoscopy in p + p and heavy ion collisions, under identical analysis and detector conditions.

Gene Expression Noise in Spatial Patterning: hunchback Promoter Structure Affects Noise Amplitude and Distribution in Drosophila Segmentation

Positional information in developing embryos is specified by spatial gradients of transcriptional regulators. One of the classic systems for studying this is the activation of the hunchback (hb) gene in early fruit fly (Drosophila) segmentation by the maternally-derived gradient of the Bicoid (Bcd) protein. Gene regulation is subject to intrinsic noise which can produce variable expression. This variability must be constrained in the highly reproducible and coordinated events of development. We identify means by which noise is controlled during gene expression by characterizing the dependence of hb mRNA and protein output noise on hb promoter structure and transcriptional dynamics. We use a stochastic model of the hb promoter in which the number and strength of Bcd and Hb (self-regulatory) binding sites can be varied. Model parameters are fit to data from WT embryos, the self-regulation mutant hb(14F), and lacZ reporter constructs using different portions of the hb promoter. We have corroborated model noise predictions experimentally. The results indicate that WT (self-regulatory) Hb output noise is predominantly dependent on the transcription and translation dynamics of its own expression, rather than on Bcd fluctuations. The constructs and mutant, which lack self-regulation, indicate that the multiple Bcd binding sites in the hb promoter (and their strengths) also play a role in buffering noise. The model is robust to the variation in Bcd binding site number across a number of fly species. This study identifies particular ways in which promoter structure and regulatory dynamics reduce hb output noise. Insofar as many of these are common features of genes (e. g. multiple regulatory sites, cooperativity, self-feedback), the current results contribute to the general understanding of the reproducibility and determinacy of spatial patterning in early development.

Effect of spatial inhomogeneity on the mapping between strongly interacting fermions and weakly interacting spins

A combined analytical and numerical study is performed of the mapping between strongly interacting fermions and weakly interacting spins, in the framework of the Hubbard, t-J, and Heisenberg models. While for spatially homogeneous models in the thermodynamic limit the mapping is thoroughly understood, we here focus on aspects that become relevant in spatially inhomogeneous situations, such as the effect of boundaries, impurities, superlattices, and interfaces. We consider parameter regimes that are relevant for traditional applications of these models, such as electrons in cuprates and manganites, and for more recent applications to atoms in optical lattices. The rate of the mapping as a function of the interaction strength is determined from the Bethe-Ansatz for infinite systems and from numerical diagonalization for finite systems. We show analytically that if translational symmetry is broken through the presence of impurities, the mapping persists and is, in a certain sense, as local as possible, provided the spin-spin interaction between two sites of the Heisenberg model is calculated from the harmonic mean of the onsite Coulomb interaction on adjacent sites of the Hubbard model. Numerical calculations corroborate these findings also in interfaces and superlattices, where analytical calculations are more complicated.

Nonclassical correlation in NMR quadrupolar systems

The existence of quantum correlation (as revealed by quantum discord), other than entanglement and its role in quantum-information processing (QIP), is a current subject for discussion. In particular, it has been suggested that this nonclassical correlation may provide computational speedup for some quantum algorithms. In this regard, bulk nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has been successfully used as a test bench for many QIP implementations, although it has also been continuously criticized for not presenting entanglement in most of the systems used so far. In this paper, we report a theoretical and experimental study on the dynamics of quantum and classical correlations in an NMR quadrupolar system. We present a method for computing the correlations from experimental NMR deviation-density matrices and show that, given the action of the nuclear-spin environment, the relaxation produces a monotonic time decay in the correlations. Although the experimental realizations were performed in a specific quadrupolar system, the main results presented here can be applied to whichever system uses a deviation-density matrix formalism.

Lower Bounds on the Exchange-Correlation Energy in Reduced Dimensions

Bounds on the exchange-correlation energy of many-electron systems are derived and tested. By using universal scaling properties of the electron-electron interaction, we obtain the exponent of the bounds in three, two, one, and quasione dimensions. From the properties of the electron gas in the dilute regime, the tightest estimate to date is given for the numerical prefactor of the bound, which is crucial in practical applications. Numerical tests on various low-dimensional systems are in line with the bounds obtained and give evidence of an interesting dimensional crossover between two and one dimensions.