914 resultados para simulated drift
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Competitive electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is an electricity market simulator able to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. As market players are complex entities, having their characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players, a multi-agent architecture is used and proved to be adequate. MASCEM players have learning capabilities and different risk preferences. They are able to refine their strategies according to their past experience (both real and simulated) and considering other agents’ behavior. Agents’ behavior is also subject to its risk preferences.
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Screening of topologies developed by hierarchical heuristic procedures can be carried out by comparing their optimal performance. In this work we will be exploiting mono-objective process optimization using two algorithms, simulated annealing and tabu search, and four different objective functions: two of the net present value type, one of them including environmental costs and two of the global potential impact type. The hydrodealkylation of toluene to produce benzene was used as case study, considering five topologies with different complexities mainly obtained by including or not liquid recycling and heat integration. The performance of the algorithms together with the objective functions was observed, analyzed and discussed from various perspectives: average deviation of results for each algorithm, capacity for producing high purity product, screening of topologies, objective functions robustness in screening of topologies, trade-offs between economic and environmental type objective functions and variability of optimum solutions.
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An intensive use of dispersed energy resources is expected for future power systems, including distributed generation, especially based on renewable sources, and electric vehicles. The system operation methods and tool must be adapted to the increased complexity, especially the optimal resource scheduling problem. Therefore, the use of metaheuristics is required to obtain good solutions in a reasonable amount of time. This paper proposes two new heuristics, called naive electric vehicles charge and discharge allocation and generation tournament based on cost, developed to obtain an initial solution to be used in the energy resource scheduling methodology based on simulated annealing previously developed by the authors. The case study considers two scenarios with 1000 and 2000 electric vehicles connected in a distribution network. The proposed heuristics are compared with a deterministic approach and presenting a very small error concerning the objective function with a low execution time for the scenario with 2000 vehicles.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica
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Unraveling the effect of selection vs. drift on the evolution of quantitative traits is commonly achieved by one of two methods. Either one contrasts population differentiation estimates for genetic markers and quantitative traits (the Q(st)-F(st) contrast) or multivariate methods are used to study the covariance between sets of traits. In particular, many studies have focused on the genetic variance-covariance matrix (the G matrix). However, both drift and selection can cause changes in G. To understand their joint effects, we recently combined the two methods into a single test (accompanying article by Martin et al.), which we apply here to a network of 16 natural populations of the freshwater snail Galba truncatula. Using this new neutrality test, extended to hierarchical population structures, we studied the multivariate equivalent of the Q(st)-F(st) contrast for several life-history traits of G. truncatula. We found strong evidence of selection acting on multivariate phenotypes. Selection was homogeneous among populations within each habitat and heterogeneous between habitats. We found that the G matrices were relatively stable within each habitat, with proportionality between the among-populations (D) and the within-populations (G) covariance matrices. The effect of habitat heterogeneity is to break this proportionality because of selection for habitat-dependent optima. Individual-based simulations mimicking our empirical system confirmed that these patterns are expected under the selective regime inferred. We show that homogenizing selection can mimic some effect of drift on the G matrix (G and D almost proportional), but that incorporating information from molecular markers (multivariate Q(st)-F(st)) allows disentangling the two effects.
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In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.
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Two tills are readily identi-f i able in central Southern Ontario, a very stony, loose deposit o-f variable matrix (Dummer till) and a moderately stony, fissile and compact deposit that is more homogeneous (drumlinized till). The quantity o-f Precambr i an, Paleozoic and Shadow Lake Formation (Paleozoic) rock types were determined and corresponding isopleth maps drawn. The changes in lithology content occurred in the direction o-f transport, there-fore, compositional isopleths o-f till may be considered equipotential lines for the reconstruction of glacier flow paths. Areal gradations of drift lithology indicated that the prime agents of dispersal were ice and glacial meltwaters. The down-ice abundance trend of till components indicated a dispersal pattern showing the concentration of a given lithology type peaking within a few kilometres of the source followed by a rapid decline and thereafter, a more gradual decrease with increasing distance. Within the esker deposits, igneous rocks may form the major component and can extend further onto the limestone plain than in the adjacent till. Evidence is presented that indicates the "style" of dispersal was one in which glacial ice may have been strongly influenced by local bedrock topography and the regional structural trends. The ice tended to follow pre-existing valleys and lows, depositing till composed mainly of local bedrock. Gradations in Paleozoic clast content showed that the local bedrock lithology became the primary till component within 3 km of down-ice transport. Evidence is presented that indicated the last glaciation may have occurred as a relatively thin ice mass, followed by stagnation and recession. No evidence of a lateglacial re-advance was found within the study area. Because of the lack of a contact between the Dummer and drumlinized till, and because of results showing gradation of the Dummer till into the drumlinized till (as indicated by lithology content and grain size), it is suggested that no re-advance occurred.
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This paper studies the application of the simulated method of moments (SMM) for the estimation of nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Monte Carlo analysis is employed to examine the small-sample properties of SMM in specifications with different curvature. Results show that SMM is computationally efficient and delivers accurate estimates, even when the simulated series are relatively short. However, asymptotic standard errors tend to overstate the actual variability of the estimates and, consequently, statistical inference is conservative. A simple strategy to incorporate priors in a method of moments context is proposed. An empirical application to the macroeconomic effects of rare events indicates that negatively skewed productivity shocks induce agents to accumulate additional capital and can endogenously generate asymmetric business cycles.
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Simultaneous elimination of specular reflection and backscattered power from a plane metallic surface by simulated corrugated surfaces of constant period and variable strip width for TM polarisation is reported. This new configuration offers almost a ten-fold frequency bandwidth compared with a regularly spaced strip grating of the same size.
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Compact-range radar backscatter measurements are taken of aircraft scale models. In addition, computer software is used to predict the RCS of the aircraft. Synthetic down-range profiles formed from the two sources of backscatter data are compared and visualized in an innovative manner. Similar discrimination rates between the two aircraft are obtained on data from both source
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This thesis presents the results of an investigation conducted for the development of a new type of feed horn antenna called "Simulated Scalar Feed". A schematic presentation of the work is given below. A review of the past important work done in the field of conventional/multimode electromagnetic horn antennas is presented in the first part of the second chapter. The work carried out on corrugated horns and surfaces are included in the second part of the review. In the third part, work on dielectric and dielectric loaded metal horns are reviewed. In all the parts of the review, special emphasis is given to theoretical design considerations. The methodology adopted for the experimental investigations is presented in the third chapter. The instrumentation utilized and thThis thesis presents the results of an investigation conducted for the development of a new type of feed horn antenna called "Simulated Scalar Feed". A schematic presentation of the work is given below. A review of the past important work done in the field of conventional/multimode electromagnetic horn antennas is presented in the first part of the second chapter. The work carried out on corrugated horns and surfaces are included in the second part of the review. In the third part, work on dielectric and dielectric loaded metal horns are reviewed. In all the parts of the review, special emphasis is given to theoretical design considerations. The methodology adopted for the experimental investigations is presented in the third chapter. The instrumentation utilized and the details of fabrication ofe details of fabrication of the new simulated scalar feed are described. The method of measurements of radiation characteristics of the antenna are also explained in this chapter. In the fourth chapter the outcome of the experimental results of the investigations carried out on horn antennas fabricated with different physical dimensions and different parameters for the E—plane boundary walls are highlighted. The theoretical explanation used to explain the experimental results is given in the fifth chapter of the thesis. A comparison between the experimental and the theoretical results is also presented in this chapter. In chapter six, the conclusions drawn from the experimental as well as the theoretical investigations are discussed. The advantages and features of the newly developed simulated scalar feed is examined in this chapter. Scope of further investigations in this field is also discussed at the end of this chapter.
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There is a growing commercial interest in the ¢sh, Puntius ¢lamentosus, in the ornamental ¢sh trade in India and elsewhere.The trade is, however, hampered by severe mortalities during transport of the ¢sh owing to insu⁄cient data available on the use of anaesthetics. To resolve this problem, we evaluated the e⁄cacy of two anaesthetics, MS-222 and benzocaine, in sedating P. ¢lamentosus in simulated transportation experiments and used stress response parameters such as cortisol and blood glucose levels to perform assessments. We observed that MS-222 at 40 mg L 1 and benzocaine at 20mg L 1 were su⁄- cient to induce sedation for 48 h. Above these concentrations, both the anaesthetics adversely a¡ected the ¢sh and resulted inmortalities. Both anaesthetics signi¢cantly lowered the blood cortisol and glucose levels compared with the unsedated controls. Importantly, the anaesthetics treatment signi¢cantly lowered the post-transport mortality in the ¢sh. The results of the study show that MS-222 and benzocaine could be used as sedatives to alleviate transport- related stress in P. ¢lamentosus to improve their post-transport survival and hence reduce economic loss.
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The TRIM.SP program which is based on the binary collision approximation was changed to handle not only repulsive interaction potentials, but also potentials with an attractive part. Sputtering yields, average depth and reflection coefficients calculated with four different potentials are compared. Three purely repulsive potentials (Meliere, Kr-C and ZBL) are used and an ab initio pair potential, which is especially calculated for silicon bombardment by silicon. The general trends in the calculated results are similar for all potentials applied, but differences between the repulsive potentials and the ab initio potential occur for the reflection coefficients and the sputtering yield at large angles of incidence.