The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-deposit-Ratio approach

Based on the Ahumada et al. (2007, Review of Income and Wealth) critique we revise existing estimates of the size of the German underground economy. Among other things, it turns out that most of these estimates are untenable and that the tax pressure induced size of the German underground economy may be much lower than previously thought. To this extent, German policy and law makers have been misguided during the last three decades. Therefore, we introduce the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio (MCDR) approach, which is not subject to the recent critique and apply it to Germany for the period 1960 to 2008. JEL: O17, Q41, C22, Keywords: underground economy, shadow economy, cash-depositratio, currency demand approach, MIMIC approach

Wing geometry as a tool for studying the Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) complex

Toro Toro (T) and Yungas (Y) have been described as genetically well differentiated populations of the Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) complex in Bolivia. Here we use geometric morphometrics to compare samples from these populations and new populations (Bolivia and Nicaragua), representing distant geographical origins, qualitative morphological variation ("one-spot" or "two-spots" phenotypes), ecologically distinct traits (peridomestic and silvatic populations), and possibly different epidemiological roles (transmitting or nor transmitting Leishmania chagasi). The Nicaragua (N) (Somotillo) sample was "one-spot" phenotype and a possible peridomestic vector. The Bolivian sample of the Y was also "one-spot" phenotype and a demonstrated peridomestic vector of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The three remaining samples were silvatic, "two-spots" phenotypes. Two of them (Uyuni and T) were collected in the highlands of Bolivian where VL never has been reported. The last one (Robore, R) came from the lowlands of Bolivia, where human cases of VL are sporadically reported. The decomposition of metric variation into size and shape by geometric morphometric techniques suggests the existence of two groups (N/Y/R, and U/T). Several arguments indicate that such subdivision of Lu. longipalpis could correspond to different evolutionary units.

Lobbying as a Guard against Extremism

This paper analyzes endogenous lobbying over a unidimensional policy issue. Individuals differ in policy preferences and decide either to join one of two opposite interest lobbies or not to take part in lobbying activities. Once formed, lobbies make contributions to the incumbent government in exchange for a policy favor as in a common-agency model. An equilibrium occurs only if no lobby member would prefer his lobby to cease to exist. I show the existence of an equilibrium with two organized lobbies. Individuals with more extreme preferences are more likely to join lobbying activities. Therefore, the lobbyists are rather extremists than moderates. However, the competition between those extreme lobbies results in a more moderate policy outcome relative to that initially preferred by the pro- or anti-policy government. Lobbies therefore guard against extremism, while acting as moderators of the government's preferences. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: common agency; endogenous lobbying; extremism.

Putting It Right

The case for change in Northern Ireland's hospital service

Pressing the right buttons: signaling in lymphangiogenesis.

Lymphatic vasculature is increasingly recognized as an important factor both in the regulation of normal tissue homeostasis and immune response and in many diseases, such as inflammation, cancer, obesity, and hypertension. In the last few years, in addition to the central role of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-C/VEGF receptor-3 signaling in lymphangiogenesis, significant new insights were obtained about Notch, transforming growth factor β/bone morphogenetic protein, Ras, mitogen-activated protein kinase, phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase, and Ca(2+)/calcineurin signaling pathways in the control of growth and remodeling of lymphatic vessels. An emerging picture of lymphangiogenic signaling is complex and in many ways distinct from the regulation of angiogenesis. This complexity provides new challenges, but also new opportunities for selective therapeutic targeting of lymphatic vasculature.

Does unemployment hurt less if there is more of it around? A panel analysis of life satisfaction in Germany and Switzerland

This article examines the existence of a habituation effect to unemployment: Does the subjective well-being of unemployed people decline less if unemployment is more widespread? The underlying idea is that unemployment hysteresis may operate through a sociological channel: if many people in the community lose their job and remain unemployed over an extended period, the psychological cost of being unemployed diminishes and the pressure to accept a new job declines. We analyze this question with individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2010) and the Swiss Household Panel (2000-2010). Our fixed-effects estimates show no evidence for a mitigating effect of high surrounding unemployment on the subjective well-being of the unemployed. Becoming unemployed hurts as much when regional unemployment is high as when it is low. Likewise, the strongly harmful impact of being unemployed on well-being does not wear off over time, nor do repeated episodes of unemployment make it any better. It thus appears doubtful that an unemployment shock becomes persistent because the unemployed become used to, and hence reasonably content with, being without a job.

The presence of Fasciola hepatica (Liver-fluke) in humans and cattle from a 4,500 Year old archaeological site in the Saale-Unstrut Valley, Germany

During an excavation of a site of the corded ware culture in the Saale-Unstrut-Valley (ca. 3000 BC) in Germany, a soil sample from the pelvis of a human skeleton was studied under palaeoparasitological aspects. Eggs of the trematode Fasciola hepatica and of the nematode genus Capillaria were found. This is the first case of a direct association of a F. hepatica-infestation to both a prehistoric human skeleton and domesticated animal remains. Sheep and cattle bones were present at the same site and F. hepatica eggs were found in bovine samples. This strongly points toward an existing infection cycle, involving humans as a final host.

A Step in the Right Direction: An Evaluation of the Fáiltiú Information and Advise Service

The Fáiltiú service provides information and advice on rights, entitlements and options to homeless people, or those at risk of homelessness. The objectives of this evaluation were to assess the information needs of users of the service, how effectively they were being met, and how they could be improved. Two focus groups of staff members and service users gave their views on the design and implementation of the research at the outset of the project. A screening questionnaire identified 78 people who used the Fáiltiú service in a specified time period, of whom 40 participated in the evaluation by giving their views on the service. The study reviewed the literature on homelessness, attempted to define the term, and examined the characteristics of homeless people and relevant Irish social policy. The conclusions reached were: users of the Fáiltiú service are marginalized in a number of ways and share characteristics related to poverty and social exclusion, such as poor educational qualifications, high levels of unemployment and experience of prison; their needs are multi-dimensional and include accommodation, financial, social and medical support, and access to employment and training services: the service needs to respond to these needs in a holistic way.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Palaeoenvironment and palaeoclimate of the Middle Miocene lake in the Steinheim basin, SW Germany: A reconstruction from C, O, and Sr isotopes of fossil remains

A differentiated reconstruction of palaeolimnologic, -environmental, and -climatic conditions is presented for the Middle Miocene long-term freshwater lake (14.3 to 13.5 Ma) of the Steinheim basin, on the basis of a combined C, 0, and Sr isotope study of sympatric skeletal fossils of aquatic and terrestrial organisms from the lake sediments. The oxygen isotope composition for lake water of the Steinheim basin (delta O-18(H2O) = +2.0 +/- 0.4 parts per thousand VSMOW, n = 6) was reconstructed from measurements of delta O-18(PO4) of aquatic turtle bones. The drinking water calculated from the enamel of large mammals (proboscideans, rhinocerotids, equids, cervids, suids) has delta O-18(H2O) values (delta(OH2O)-O-18 = -5.9 +/- 1.7 parts per thousand VSMOW, n = 31) typical for Middle Miocene meteoric water of the area. This delta O-18(H2O) value corresponds to a mean annual air temperature (MAT) of 18.8 +/- 3.8 degrees C, calculated using a modem-day delta(OH2O)-O-18-MAT relation. Hence, large mammals did not use the lake water as principal drinking water. In contrast, small mammals, especially the then abundant pika Prolagus oeningensis drank from O-18-enriched water sources (delta O-18(H2O) = +2.7 +/- 2.3 parts per thousand VSMOW, n = 7), such as the lake water. Differences in Sr and 0 isotopic compositions between large and small mammal teeth indicate different home ranges and drinking behaviour and support migration of some large mammals between the Swabian Alb plateau and the nearby Molasse basin, while small mammals ingested their food and water locally. Changes in the lake level, water chemistry, and temperature were inferred using isotopic compositions of ostracod and gastropod shells from a composite lake sediment profile. Calcitic ostracod valves (Ilyocypris binocularis; delta O-18 = +1.7 +/- 1.2 parts per thousand VPDB, delta C-18 = -0.5 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand, VPDB, n = 68) and aragonitic, gastropod shells (Gyraulus spp.; delta O-18 = +2.0 +/- 13 parts per thousand VPDB, delta C-13 = -1.1 +/- 1.3 parts per thousand VPDB, n = 89) have delta O-18 and delta C-13 values similar to or even higher than those of marine, carbonates. delta C-13 values:of the biogenic carbonates parallel lake level fluctuations while delta O-18 values scatter around +2 +/- 2 parts per thousand and reflect the short term variability of meteoric water inflow vs. longer term evaporation. Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios of aragonitic Gyraulus spp. gastropod shells parallel the lake level fluctuations, reflecting variable inputs of groundwater and surface waters. Using a water delta O-18(H2O) value of +2.0 parts per thousand VSMOW, water temperatures calculated from skeletal tissue delta O-18 values of ostracods are 16.7 +/- 5.0 degrees C, gastropods 20.6 +/- 5.6 degrees C, otoliths 21.8 +/- 1.4 degrees C, and fish teeth 17.0 +/- 2.7 degrees C. The calculated MAT (similar to 19 degrees C), lake water temperatures (similar to 17 to 22 degrees C) and the O-18-enriched water compositions are indicative of warm-temperate climatic conditions, possibly with a high humidity during this period. Vegetation in the area surrounding the basin was largely of the C-3-type, as indicated by carbon isotopic compositions of tooth enamel from large mammals (delta C-13 = -11.1 +/- 1.1 parts per thousand VPDB, n = 40). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.