Property company performance and real interest rates: a regime-switching approach

Linear models of property market performance may be misspecified if there exist distinct states where the market drivers behave in different ways. This paper examines the applicability of non-linear regime-based models. A Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model is applied to property company share data, using the real rate of interest to define regimes. Distinct regimes appear exhibiting markedly different market behaviour. The model both casts doubt on the specification of conventional linear models and offers the possibility of developing effective trading rules for real estate equities.

A evolução da produtividade total de fatores na economia brasileira: uma análise do período pós-real

A presente pesquisa aplica o modelo de fronteira estocástica de produção para as indústrias de transformação e da construção civil, assim como para o comércio e os serviços no Brasil, de forma a identificar as fontes de crescimento dos principais setores de atividade da economia brasileira, quais sejam: acumulação de capital físico, emprego da mão-de-obra, e produtividade total de fatores (PTF). Conforme Kumbhakar (2000), a evolução da PTF é decomposta em progresso técnico, mudanças da eficiência técnica, mudanças da eficiência alocativa e efeitos de escala. O estudo parte de dados de 1996 a 2000 das principais pesquisas anuais do IBGE realizadas com firmas: PAIC, PIA, PAC e PAS.

O Litoral e a metrópole dinâmica imobiliária, turismo e expansão urbana na região metropolitana de Natal-RN

The metropolitan regions of Northeast Brazil are being gradually included in a scenario of international investments, which are motivated by the restructuring of both touristic and real-estate sectors. The new capital, real-estate developers and space configurations that result from this process indicate the need for the creation and implementation of public tools which should, at least, allow the mitigation of the urban impacts and environmental losses resulting from this situation. The effects on landscape and on the socio-spatial configuration result from the intensification caused by the dynamism of the "real estate-tourism" sector. There is a regional integration as an expression of the urban expansion of the metropolitan area of Natal. This study investigates the uniqueness of the restructuring and territorial integration of coastal areas and the strategies of the circuit of capital accumulation formed by linking the real estate to tourism. It is intended to increase the understanding about the strategies of tourism, real estate and public policy agents involved in this territorial reconfiguration and in the fund-raising needed for the investments, to understand the existing social and environmental effects and their future trends and also to understand the forms of spatial production as results from the practices of approaching the land transformation and the tourism valorization of the landscape, in a synchronous manner, first in the Northeast region and, as a focal study, in the Metropolitan Area of Natal. Likewise, it is intended to apprehend the current processes of metropolization of the eastern coast of Rio Grande do Norte, in addition to indicate its physical-territorial transformation and the types of projects/developments promoted by the market in the recent period. Based upon analysis undertaken for the Metropolitan Region of Natal RN, this piece of work presents some considerations on possible legal instruments that can be adjusted to the municipalities which are experiencing the impact of this peculiar and recent phenomenon in the region, caused by the arrival of the real estate-touristic capital. It is also intended to point out basic proposals to the forms of public intervention, in a speculative way, starting from a Metropolitan Planning project within a medium and long term

Entre o cartão-postal e a cidade real: um estudo sobre paisagem e produção imobiliária em Natal/RN

Recent studies concerning the landscape have investigated the most important activities that contribute for its modification and have tried to better understand the society through the marks left by its quotidian. It is understood that singular landscapes constitute the cultural patrimonies of the cities, once they are part of the daily life of the citizens and are present in their social representations. Some contemporary authors defend the preservation of the natural and urban landscape trying, specially, to keep its importance for the local population. Natal is a city where the ambient qualities are well defined and known by the beauty of the area where it is located. Situated just between a river and the sea, the city grew following its geographic characteristics. The Potengi River, the Atlantic Ocean and the vast dunes ecosystem represented natural limits to the urban expansion; at the same time they have favored the development of a landscape pattern marked by the dialectic between the natural elements and the human interventions. However, this relationship changed after the intensification of the high rising development process that took place since the 1960s. The urban legislation tried to preserve the features of the local landscape delimiting Areas for Controlling Building High , destined to protect the scenic value of some parts of the city. On the other hand, the civil construction sector has made constant pressure in sense to abolish or to modify this legal instrument, aiming profits that have increased, in the 1990s, because of the consumption and the qualification of the urban space for tourist activities. It is necessary the raising of new elements to stimulate the quarrel about the landscape preservation, the process of the urban space production and the best way for the legislation implementation. This work tries to raise elements about the subject at local level, in sense to use Natal City experience to contribute for the formulation of indicators to raise the question about the lack of measure for subjective values, for example the cultural and affective value of the landscape. The natural elements inserted in the urban profile, represent strong visual references and supply identity to the town; they are part of the collective imaginary and are detached in the social context of the city. Then, why the preservation of the landscape, that estimates the improvement in the quality of life, is not enough to justify the controlling building high already previewed as part of Natal City Legislation? These questions send us to the approach of the landscape, as a community patrimony, alerting that some of its significant esthetics attributes must be preserved as a legacy for the future generations

Sprawl e o modal de transporte motorizado: impactos na cidade de Londrina, PR

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2008

Includes bibliography

Brazil's emergence at the regional export leader in services: a case specialization in business services

Includes Bibliography

Geotecnologia aplicada à análise da expansão urbana de Botucatu–SP (1962 – 2010)

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

A reprodução do capital imobiliário, os multicomplexos coorporativos e a elitização do espaço: o exemplo do Parque Cidade Jardim na cidade de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Processo de verticalização em Londrina: novas formas de produção e consumo de imóveis residenciais - 2000 a 2010

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise comparativa do mercado imobiliário em Cidades Médias: a oferta de apartamentos, casas e terrenos urbanos em Campina Grande – PB, Mossoró – RN e Passo Fundo – RS

This presente monograph propose the analysis and discussion of the production of urban space and the processes of their structuring intraurbana from the dynamics of the real estate market into three Medium-sized Cities, Campina Grande - PB, Mossoró - RN and Passo Fundo - RS, whereas the various agents producing this space, in a comparative perspective. From this urban dynamic search to analyze the processes and relations present in these spaces, which are important for its production. From the compilation of real estate advertisements in local newspapers, are analyzed offerings of urban land, houses and apartments in each one of these cities by highlighting their locations and differentiated prices. Thus, working with data from real estate ads from the period 1995 - 2010 and a comparative perspective of the characteristics of real estate markets of three medium-sized cities, it tried to apprehend processes that are common between them and other individuals, to each one. Therefore the comparative analysis developed in this monograph sought to verify whether there are similarities between the cities in relation to the trends of concentration/spatial dispersion of bids and movements throughout time, in addition to a further intensification of the activities of real estate agents in face of such trends and offerings. In addition, we sought to remove a set of problematization that allow them to understand with more acute, in this set of medium cities of Brazilian urban network, processes of change that is already being discussed in the recent period by ReCiMe.

La conformación del mercado, la evolución de los precios y los efectos de la privatización de la tierra pública durante la expansión de la frontera en el sureste cordobés

En este artículo se analizan la conformación del mercado y los precios de la tierra del departamento Unión de la provincia de Córdoba, entre 1860 y 1880. Por una parte, se revisan los instrumentos desplegados por el Estado para llevar adelante la privatización del suelo y cómo se manifestaron en los valores de la tierra pública, la evolución que mostraron durante el período abarcado y la relación que tuvieron con las condiciones de venta de esos inmuebles. Por la otra, el seguimiento se practica sobre las tierras negociadas entre los particulares. Un primer nivel de análisis corresponde al precio medio anual. A través de este indicador se busca identificar las principales tendencias que mostró a lo largo de los años indagados. Luego, se profundiza el estudio mediante la descomposición del conjunto de los inmuebles en dos categorías: estancias y terrenos. Estos últimos, a su vez, se subdividieron en tres grupos de acuerdo con la superficie de cada uno y en relación con su posible destino económico

La conformación del mercado, la evolución de los precios y los efectos de la privatización de la tierra pública durante la expansión de la frontera en el sureste cordobés

En este artículo se analizan la conformación del mercado y los precios de la tierra del departamento Unión de la provincia de Córdoba, entre 1860 y 1880. Por una parte, se revisan los instrumentos desplegados por el Estado para llevar adelante la privatización del suelo y cómo se manifestaron en los valores de la tierra pública, la evolución que mostraron durante el período abarcado y la relación que tuvieron con las condiciones de venta de esos inmuebles. Por la otra, el seguimiento se practica sobre las tierras negociadas entre los particulares. Un primer nivel de análisis corresponde al precio medio anual. A través de este indicador se busca identificar las principales tendencias que mostró a lo largo de los años indagados. Luego, se profundiza el estudio mediante la descomposición del conjunto de los inmuebles en dos categorías: estancias y terrenos. Estos últimos, a su vez, se subdividieron en tres grupos de acuerdo con la superficie de cada uno y en relación con su posible destino económico

La conformación del mercado, la evolución de los precios y los efectos de la privatización de la tierra pública durante la expansión de la frontera en el sureste cordobés

En este artículo se analizan la conformación del mercado y los precios de la tierra del departamento Unión de la provincia de Córdoba, entre 1860 y 1880. Por una parte, se revisan los instrumentos desplegados por el Estado para llevar adelante la privatización del suelo y cómo se manifestaron en los valores de la tierra pública, la evolución que mostraron durante el período abarcado y la relación que tuvieron con las condiciones de venta de esos inmuebles. Por la otra, el seguimiento se practica sobre las tierras negociadas entre los particulares. Un primer nivel de análisis corresponde al precio medio anual. A través de este indicador se busca identificar las principales tendencias que mostró a lo largo de los años indagados. Luego, se profundiza el estudio mediante la descomposición del conjunto de los inmuebles en dos categorías: estancias y terrenos. Estos últimos, a su vez, se subdividieron en tres grupos de acuerdo con la superficie de cada uno y en relación con su posible destino económico

Desarrollo de un modelo de formación del valor inmobiliario en áreas de crecimiento suburbano. Aplicación a la comarca de la Vega Baja del Segura en el litoral alicantino

Una de las principales líneas de investigación de la economía urbana es el comportamiento del mercado inmobiliario y sus relaciones con la estructura territorial. Dentro de este contexto, la reflexión sobre el significado del valor urbano, y abordar su variabilidad, constituye un tema de especial importancia, dada la relevancia que ha supuesto y supone la actividad inmobiliaria en España. El presente estudio ha planteado como principal objetivo la identificación de aquellos factores, ligados a la localización que explican la formación del valor inmobiliario y justifican su variabilidad. Definir este proceso precisa de una evaluación a escala territorial estableciendo aquellos factores de carácter socioeconómico, medioambiental y urbanístico que estructuran el desarrollo urbano, condicionan la demanda de inmuebles y, por tanto, los procesos de formación de su valor. El análisis se centra en valores inmobiliarios residenciales localizados en áreas litorales donde la presión del sector turístico ha impulsado un amplio. Para ello, el ámbito territorial seleccionado como objeto de estudio se sitúa en la costa mediterránea española, al sur de la provincia de Alicante, la comarca de la Vega Baja del Segura. La zona, con una amplia diversidad ecológica y paisajística, ha mantenido históricamente una clara distinción entre espacio urbano y espacio rural. Esta dicotomía ha cambiado drásticamente en las últimas décadas, experimentándose un fuerte crecimiento demográfico y económico ligado a los sectores turístico e inmobiliario, aspectos que han tenido un claro reflejo en los valores inmobiliarios. Este desarrollo de la comarca es un claro ejemplo de la política expansionista de los mercados de suelo que ha tenido lugar en la costa española en las dos últimas décadas y que derivado en la regeneración de un amplio tejido suburbano. El conocimiento del marco territorial ha posibilitado realizar un análisis de variabilidad espacial mediante un tratamiento masivo de datos, así como un análisis econométrico que determina los factores que se valoran positivamente y negativamente por el potencial comprador. Estas relaciones permiten establecer diferentes estructuras matemáticas basadas en los modelos de precios hedónicos, que permiten identificar rasgos diferenciales en los ámbitos económico, social y espacial y su incidencia en el valor inmobiliario. También se ha sistematizado un proceso de valoración territorial a través del análisis del concepto de vulnerabilidad estructural, entendido como una situación de fragilidad debida a circunstancias tanto sociales como económicas, tanto actual como de tendencia en el futuro. Actualmente, esta estructura de demanda de segunda residencia y servicios ha mostrado su fragilidad y ha bloqueado el desarrollo económico de la zona al caer drásticamente la inversión en el sector inmobiliario por la crisis global de la deuda. El proceso se ha agravado al existir un tejido industrial marginal al que no se ha derivado inversiones importantes y un abandono progresivo de las explotaciones agropecuarias. El modelo turístico no sería en sí mismo la causa del bloqueo del desarrollo económico comarcal, sino la forma en que se ha implantado en la Costa Blanca, con un consumo del territorio basado en el corto plazo, poco respetuoso con aspectos paisajísticos y medioambientales, y sin una organización territorial global. Se observa cómo la vinculación entre índices de vulnerabilidad y valor inmobiliario no es especialmente significativa, lo que denota que las tendencias futuras de fragilidad no han sido incorporadas a la hora de establecer los precios de venta del producto inmobiliario analizado. El valor muestra una clara dependencia del sistema de asentamiento y conservación de las áreas medioambientales y un claro reconocimiento de tipologías propias del medio rural aunque vinculadas al sector turístico. En la actualidad, el continuo descenso de la demanda turística ha provocado una clara modificación en la estructura poblacional y económica. Al incorporar estas modificaciones a los modelos especificados podemos comprobar un verdadero desmoronamiento de los valores. Es posible que el remanente de vivienda construida actualmente vaya dirigido a un potencial comprador que se encuentra en retroceso y que se vincula a unos rasgos territoriales ya no existentes. Encontrar soluciones adaptables a la oferta existente, implica la viabilidad de renovación del sistema poblacional o modificaciones a nivel económico. La búsqueda de respuestas a estas cuestiones señala la necesidad de recanalizar el desarrollo, sin obviar la potencialidad del ámbito. SUMMARY One of the main lines of research regarding the urban economy focuses on the behavior of the real estate market and its relationship to territorial structure. Within this context, one of the most important themes involves considering the significance of urban property value and dealing with its variability, particularly given the significant role of the real estate market in Spain, both in the past and present. The main objective of this study is to identify those factors linked to location, which explain the formation of property values and justify their variability. Defining this process requires carrying out an evaluation on a territorial scale, establishing the socioeconomic, environmental and urban planning factors that constitute urban development and influence the demand for housing, thereby defining the processes by which their value is established. The analysis targets residential real estate values in coastal areas where pressure from the tourism industry has prompted large-scale transformations. Therefore, the focal point of this study is an area known as Vega Baja del Segura, which is located on the Spanish Mediterranean coast in southern Alicante (province). Characterized by its scenic and ecological diversity, this area has historically maintained a clear distinction between urban and rural spaces. This dichotomy has drastically changed in past decades due to the large increase in population attributed to the tourism and real estate markets – factors which have had a direct effect on property values. The development of this area provides a clear example of the expansionary policies which have affected the housing market on the coast of Spain during the past two decades, resulting in a large increase in suburban development. Understanding the territorial framework has made it possible to carry out a spatial variability analysis through massive data processing, as well as an econometric analysis that determines the factors that are evaluated positively and negatively by potential buyers. These relationships enable us to establish different mathematical systems based on hedonic pricing models that facilitate the identification of differential features in the economic, social and spatial spheres, and their impact on property values. Additionally, a process for land valuation was established through an analysis of the concept of structural vulnerability, which is understood to be a fragile situation resulting from either social or economic circumstances. Currently, this demand structure for second homes and services has demonstrated its fragility and has inhibited the area’s economic development as a result of the drastic fall in investment in the real estate market, due to the global debt crisis. This process has been worsened by the existence of a marginal industrial base into which no important investments have been channeled, combined with the progressive abandonment of agricultural and fishing operations. In and of itself, the tourism model did not inhibit the area’s economic development, rather it is the result of the manner in which it was implemented on the Costa Brava, with a land consumption based on the short-term, lacking respect for landscape and environmental aspects and without a comprehensive organization of the territory. It is clear that the link between vulnerability indexes and property values is not particularly significant, thereby indicating that future fragility trends have not been incorporated into the problem in terms of establishing the sale prices of the analyzed real estate product in question. Urban property values are clearly dependent on the system of development and environmental conservation, as well as on a clear recognition of the typologies that characterize rural areas, even those linked to the tourism industry. Today, the continued drop in tourism demand has provoked an obvious modification in the populational and economic structures. By incorporating these changes into the specified models, we can confirm a real collapse in values. It’s possible that the surplus of already-built homes is currently being marketed to a potential buyer who is in recession and linked to certain territorial characteristics that no longer exist. Finding solutions that can be adapted to the existing offer implies the viability of renewing the population system or carrying out modifications on an economic level. The search for answers to these questions suggests the need to reform the development model, without leaving out an area’s potentiality.