A simulation study using the hybrid statistic and the meta-analysis t-test for data with matched and unmatched subjects in the interim analysis of clinical trials

An interim analysis is usually applied in later phase II or phase III trials to find convincing evidence of a significant treatment difference that may lead to trial termination at an earlier point than planned at the beginning. This can result in the saving of patient resources and shortening of drug development and approval time. In addition, ethics and economics are also the reasons to stop a trial earlier. In clinical trials of eyes, ears, knees, arms, kidneys, lungs, and other clustered treatments, data may include distribution-free random variables with matched and unmatched subjects in one study. It is important to properly include both subjects in the interim and the final analyses so that the maximum efficiency of statistical and clinical inferences can be obtained at different stages of the trials. So far, no publication has applied a statistical method for distribution-free data with matched and unmatched subjects in the interim analysis of clinical trials. In this simulation study, the hybrid statistic was used to estimate the empirical powers and the empirical type I errors among the simulated datasets with different sample sizes, different effect sizes, different correlation coefficients for matched pairs, and different data distributions, respectively, in the interim and final analysis with 4 different group sequential methods. Empirical powers and empirical type I errors were also compared to those estimated by using the meta-analysis t-test among the same simulated datasets. Results from this simulation study show that, compared to the meta-analysis t-test commonly used for data with normally distributed observations, the hybrid statistic has a greater power for data observed from normally, log-normally, and multinomially distributed random variables with matched and unmatched subjects and with outliers. Powers rose with the increase in sample size, effect size, and correlation coefficient for the matched pairs. In addition, lower type I errors were observed estimated by using the hybrid statistic, which indicates that this test is also conservative for data with outliers in the interim analysis of clinical trials.^

Radiogenic lead and neodymium composition of surface sediments from the Arctic Ocean

Dolomite-rich layers of distinct pinkish colour are used as lithostratigraphic markers in the Amerasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. However, origin of dolomite present in these sediment units has not been investigated in detail. In this study, lead (Pb) and neodymium (Nd) isotope composition of detrital clay-size fraction from different lithofacies was investigated in core PS72/340-5 recovered at the eastern flank of the Mendeleev Ridge. Prior to the geochemical analyses, grain-size distribution in sediments was analyzed in order to minimize the grain-size effect on the provenance signature. For provenance discrimination, results of isotope measurements were compared with marine surface sediment data and values for the circum-Arctic subaerial provinces. Late Quaternary sediment supply variability in core PS72/340-5 was analysed using the mixing model constrained by two tracers: 207Pb/206Pb and eNd. Variations of sediment isotopic composition are inferred to be due to mixing of volcanic and plutonic components. Usage of Pb isotopic ratios alone does not allow distinction between the volcanic and plutonic sources. Results confirm that, in the frame of the existing age model, over the last 200 ka dolomite-rich pink layers at the southern Mendeleev Ridge were deposited during events associated with intensified iceberg transport from North America. In general, however, late Quaternary sedimentation was mostly controlled by terrigenous input from the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas whereas sediment supply from the Laptev Sea area remained less important and relatively constant at the studied location.

Effects of birth order and sibling sex composition on human capital investment in children in India

The paper explores the effects of birth order and sibling sex composition on human capital investment in children in India using the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS). Endogeneity of fertility is addressed using instruments and controlling for household fixed effects. Family size effect is also distinguished from the sibling sex composition effect. Previous literature has often failed to take endogeneity into account and shows a negative birth order effect for girls in India. Once endogeneity of fertility is addressed, there is no evidence for a negative birth order effect or sibling sex composition effect for girls. Results show that boys are worse off in households that have a higher proportion of boys specifically when they have older brothers.

Nanoindentation of Bridgman YBCO samples

In this study, the mechanical properties of YBa2Cu3O7−x, obtained by the Bridgman technique, were examined using a Berkovich tip indenter on the basal plane (0 0 1). Intrinsic hardness was measured by nanoindentation tests and corrected using the Nix and Gao model for this material. Furthermore, Vickers hardness tests were performed, in order to determine the possible size effect on these measurements. The results showed an underestimation of the hardness value when the tests were performed with large loads. Moreover, the elastic modulus of the Bridgman samples was 128 ± 5 GPa. Different residual imprints were visualised by atomic force microscopy and a focused ion beam, in order to observe superficial and internal fracturing. Mechanical properties presented a considerable reduction at the interface. This effect could be attributed to internal stress generated during the texturing process. In order to corroborate this hypothesis, an observation using transmission electron microscopy was performed.

Estudio numérico y experimental del efecto de tamaño en modo mixto de los paneles de yeso laminado y lana de roca

Los paneles sándwich de yeso laminado y lana de roca presentan una abundante patología de fisuración debida a flechas excesivas de forjados. Existe, por tanto, la necesidad de avanzar en la simulación y predicción de comportamiento bajo solicitaciones de tracción y cortante de ese tipo de paneles, a pesar de que en las aplicaciones habituales no tienen responsabilidad estructural. El comportamiento de este material puede ser considerado cuasi-frágil, y en base a ello en este trabajo ha sido estudiado haciendo uso de modelos de fisura cohesiva, cuya aplicación a otros materiales cuasifrágiles, como el hormigón, ha aportado resultados muy satisfactorios. En esta comunicación se presenta el trabajo realizado para estudiar el efecto del tamaño del elemento de yeso laminado y lana de roca en su comportamiento mecánico-resistente. Para ello se diseñó una campaña de ensayos en modo mixto sobre probetas de diferente tamaño. Se han realizado ensayos de flexión en tres puntos en modo mixto de unas probetas entalladas, geométricamente similares y de diferente tamaño, obteniéndose las curvas carga-desplazamiento y cargaabertura de la boca de la entalla. Para simular numéricamente el comportamiento en fractura del panel en modo mixto se ha utilizado un modelo de elementos finitos con fisura embebida basado en la fisura cohesiva en el que se introducen como entrada los parámetros obtenidos a partir de la experimentación de trabajos anteriores, obteniéndose un buen ajuste. En función de estos resultados se analiza el efecto del tamaño en los paneles. Sandwich panels of laminated gypsum and rockwool have an abundant pathology of cracking due to excessive slabs deflection. Therefore, it is necessary to progress in the simulation and prediction of behaviour under tensile and shear load of such panels, although in typical applications have no structural responsability. The behaviour of this material may be considered quasi-brittle and, based on this idea, in this work has been studied using a cohesive crack model that has been applied to other quasi-brittle materials, such as concrete, and has provided very satisfactory results. This communication presents the work carried out to study the size effect of the specimen of plasterboard and rockwool in its mechanical and resistant behaviour. The authors designed an experimental campaign under mixed mode composed by testing specimens of different sizes. Assymetrical three-point bending tests have been performed on notched specimens, geometrically similar and of different size, to obtain load-displacement and load-crack moutn opening displacement curves. To numerically simulate the mixed-mode fracture behaviour of the panels we have used a finite element model with embedded crack, based on the cohesive crack model, using as input the experimental parameters obtained in previous work, obtaining a good adjustment. Based on these results we analyze the size effect of the panels

Estudio numérico y experimental del efecto de tamaño en modo mixto de los paneles de yeso laminado y lana de roca

Los paneles sándwich de yeso laminado y lana de roca presentan una abundante patología de fisuración debida a flechas excesivas de forjados. Existe, por tanto, la necesidad de avanzar en la simulación y predicción de comportamiento bajo solicitaciones de tracción y cortante de ese tipo de paneles, a pesar de que en las aplicaciones habituales no tienen responsabilidad estructural. El comportamiento de este material puede ser considerado cuasi-frágil, y en base a ello en este trabajo ha sido estudiado haciendo uso de modelos de fisura cohesiva, cuya aplicación a otros materiales cuasifrágiles, como el hormigón, ha aportado resultados muy satisfactorios. En esta comunicación se presenta el trabajo realizado para estudiar el efecto del tamaño del elemento de yeso laminado y lana de roca en su comportamiento mecánico-resistente. Para ello se diseñó una campaña de ensayos en modo mixto sobre probetas de diferente tamaño. Se han realizado ensayos de flexión en tres puntos en modo mixto de unas probetas entalladas, geométricamente similares y de diferente tamaño, obteniéndose las curvas carga-desplazamiento y cargaabertura de la boca de la entalla. Para simular numéricamente el comportamiento en fractura del panel en modo mixto se ha utilizado un modelo de elementos finitos con fisura embebida basado en la fisura cohesiva en el que se introducen como entrada los parámetros obtenidos a partir de la experimentación de trabajos anteriores, obteniéndose un buen ajuste. En función de estos resultados se analiza el efecto del tamaño en los paneles. Sandwich panels of laminated gypsum and rockwool have an abundant pathology of cracking due to excessive slabs deflection. Therefore, it is necessary to progress in the simulation and prediction of behaviour under tensile and shear load of such panels, although in typical applications have no structural responsability. The behaviour of this material may be considered quasi-brittle and, based on this idea, in this work has been studied using a cohesive crack model that has been applied to other quasi-brittle materials, such as concrete, and has provided very satisfactory results. This communication presents the work carried out to study the size effect of the specimen of plasterboard and rockwool in its mechanical and resistant behaviour. The authors designed an experimental campaign under mixed mode composed by testing specimens of different sizes. Assymetrical three-point bending tests have been performed on notched specimens, geometrically similar and of different size, to obtain load-displacement and load-crack moutn opening displacement curves. To numerically simulate the mixed-mode fracture behaviour of the panels we have used a finite element model with embedded crack, based on the cohesive crack model, using as input the experimental parameters obtained in previous work, obtaining a good adjustment. Based on these results we analyze the size effect of the panels.

Finite element simulation of sandwich panels of plasterboard and rock wool under mixed mode fracture

This paper presents the results of research on mixed mode fracture of sandwich panels of plasterboard and rock wool. The experimental data of the performed tests are supplied. The specimens were made from commercial panels. Asymmetrical three-point bending tests were performed on notched specimens. Three sizes of geometrically similar specimens were tested for studying the size effect. The paper also includes the numerical simulation of the experimental results by using an embedded cohesive crack model.The involved parameters for modelling are previously measured by standardised tests.

Influência do tamanho da amostra na determinação da curva de retenção da água no solo

A curva de retenção da água no solo é um dos principais instrumentos para avaliar a qualidade física dos solos e possibilitar seu manejo adequado. Por meio da Teoria da Capilaridade vários equipamentos foram desenvolvidos para determinar a intensidade com que a água está retida ao solo, porém, pouco se tem dado atenção para verificar se os pressupostos para o real funcionamento da teoria estão sendo atendidos. Um aspecto refere-se ao tamanho da amostra utilizada para determinar a curva de retenção, de modo que haja continuidade dos feixes capilares na amostra e placa porosa. Desta forma, este trabalho propõe avaliar diferentes tamanhos de amostra indeformada para a determinação da curva de retenção. Para isso, coletaram-se amostras em anéis volumétricos cilíndricos de três tamanhos (altura) diferentes (T1 - 0,075 m; T2 - 0,05 m; T3 - 0,025 m;) e mesmo diâmetro interno (0,07 m), dos horizontes diagnósticos de um Latossolo e um Nitossolo em áreas experimentais da Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (Esalq/USP), Piracicaba - SP. Realizou-se a caracterização física destes solos, por meio da análise granulométrica, densidade do solo, densidade de partículas, porosidade total e teor de carbono orgânico. As curvas foram determinadas para cada tamanho de amostra, utilizando-se o Funil de Haines, para as tensões 0,5, 1, 4, 6 e 10 kPa, e a Câmara de Pressão de Richards para 33, 100 e 500 kPa. As curvas de retenção foram ajustadas pelo modelo utilizado por van Genuchten. Estimadas as curvas, avaliou-se a distribuição de poros do solo das amostras, determinando-se a curva de frequência acumulada de poros em função do logaritmo do raio e, depois pela diferenciação das equações de ajuste das curvas de retenção, a curva diferencial de frequência acumulada de poros. Os resultados mostram que o Latossolo, por ter textura arenosa no horizonte estudado, não apresentou diferença significativa nas curvas de retenção para os tamanhos das amostras estudadas. Verificou-se pouca modificação na distribuição dos poros deste solo, que possui teor elevado das frações areia fina e muito fina, e desenvolveram papel importante para a retenção de água. O Nitossolo, por sua vez, apresentou diferença significativa da curva obtida pela amostra de menor tamanho (T3), havendo maior retenção de água com a diminuição do tamanho da amostra. Devido a sua textura muito argilosa, o arranjo estrutural deste solo foi diferenciado ao se utilizar as amostras maiores, com provável interrupção e descontinuidade dos feixes capilares. Consequentemente, houve também alteração na distribuição dos poros, com redução dos mesoporos e aumento dos microporos. Desta forma, pode-se concluir que o tamanho da amostra influenciou a curva de retenção da água devido à complexidade estrutural do solo, que provavelmente é diferente nas amostras maiores por causa da continuidade dos feixes capilares, principalmente no Nitossolo. Em outras palavras, quanto menor o tamanho da amostra há menor diferenciação no arranjo de poros, ou seja, maior proximidade da real condição do solo e, assim, uma interpretação da retenção de água \"mais correta\" por meio da Teoria da Capilaridade.

Edge states in graphene-like systems

The edges of graphene and graphene like systems can host localized states with evanescent wave function with properties radically different from those of the Dirac electrons in bulk. This happens in a variety of situations, that are reviewed here. First, zigzag edges host a set of localized non-dispersive state at the Dirac energy. At half filling, it is expected that these states are prone to ferromagnetic instability, causing a very interesting type of edge ferromagnetism. Second, graphene under the influence of external perturbations can host a variety of topological insulating phases, including the conventional quantum Hall effect, the quantum anomalous Hall (QAH) and the quantum spin Hall phase, in all of which phases conduction can only take place through topologically protected edge states. Here we provide an unified vision of the properties of all these edge states, examined under the light of the same one orbital tight-binding model. We consider the combined action of interactions, spin–orbit coupling and magnetic field, which produces a wealth of different physical phenomena. We briefly address what has been actually observed experimentally.

Enhanced spin injection efficiency in ferromagnet/semiconductor tunnel junctions

Within the ballistic transport picture, we have investigated the spin-polarized transport properties of a ferromagnetic metal/two-dimensional semiconductor (FM/SM) hybrid junction and an FM/FM/SM structure using quantum tunnelling theory. Our calculations indicate explicitly that the low spin injection efficiency (SIE) from an FM into an SM, compared with a ferromagnet/normal metal junction, originates from the mismatch of electron densities in the FM and SM. To enhance the SIE from an FM into an SM, we introduce another FM film between them to form FM/FM/SM double tunnel junctions, in which the quantum interference effect will lead to the current polarization exhibiting periodically oscillating behaviour, with a variation according to the thickness of the middle FM film and/or its exchange energy strength. Our results show that, for some suitable values of these parameters, the SIE can reach a very high level, which can also be affected by the electron density in the SM electrode.

Snakes and cats in the flower bed: Fast detection is not specific to pictures of fear-relevant animals

The observation that snakes and spiders are found faster among flowers and mushrooms than vice versa and that this search advantage is independent of set size supports the notion that fear-relevant stimuli are processed preferentially in a dedicated fear module. Experiment I replicated the faster identification of snakes and spiders but also found a set size effect in a blocked, but not in a mixed-trial, sequence. Experiment 2 failed to find faster identification of snake and spider deviants relative to other animals among flowers and mushrooms and provided evidence for a search advantage for pictures of animals, irrespective of their fear relevance. These findings suggest that results from the present visual search task cannot support the notion of preferential processing of fear relevance.

Future long-horizon performance measurement conditional on past survival

This paper examines the measurement of long-horizon abnormal performance when stock selection is conditional on an extended period of past survival. Filtering on survival results in a sample driven towards more-established, frequently traded stocks and this has implications for the choice of benchmark used in performance measurement (especially in the presence of the well-documented size effect). A simulation study is conducted to document the properties of commonly employed performance measures conditional on past survival. The results suggest that the popular index benchmarks used in long-horizon event studies are severely biased and yield test statistics that are badly misspecified. In contrast, a matched-stock benchmark based on size and industry performs consistently well. Also, an eligible-stock index designed to mitigate the influence of the size effect proves effective.

Various topological excitations in the SO(4) gauge field in higher dimensions

Following the original analysis Of Zhang and Hu for the 4-dimensional generalization of Quantum Hall effect, there has been much work from different viewpoints on the higher dimensional condensed matter systems. In this paper, we discuss three kinds of topological excitations in the SO(4) gauge field of condensed matter systems in 4-dimension-the instantons and anti-instantons, the 't Hooft-Polyakov monopoles, and the 2-membranes. Using the phi-mapping topological theory, it is revealed that there are 4-, 3-, and 2-dimensional topological currents inhering in the SO (4) gauge field, and the above three kinds of excitations can be directly and explicitly derived from these three kinds of currents, respectively. Moreover, it is shown that the topological charges of these excitations are characterized by the Hopf indices and Brouwer degrees of phi-mapping. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian error bars for regression

Regression problems are concerned with predicting the values of one or more continuous quantities, given the values of a number of input variables. For virtually every application of regression, however, it is also important to have an indication of the uncertainty in the predictions. Such uncertainties are expressed in terms of the error bars, which specify the standard deviation of the distribution of predictions about the mean. Accurate estimate of error bars is of practical importance especially when safety and reliability is an issue. The Bayesian view of regression leads naturally to two contributions to the error bars. The first arises from the intrinsic noise on the target data, while the second comes from the uncertainty in the values of the model parameters which manifests itself in the finite width of the posterior distribution over the space of these parameters. The Hessian matrix which involves the second derivatives of the error function with respect to the weights is needed for implementing the Bayesian formalism in general and estimating the error bars in particular. A study of different methods for evaluating this matrix is given with special emphasis on the outer product approximation method. The contribution of the uncertainty in model parameters to the error bars is a finite data size effect, which becomes negligible as the number of data points in the training set increases. A study of this contribution is given in relation to the distribution of data in input space. It is shown that the addition of data points to the training set can only reduce the local magnitude of the error bars or leave it unchanged. Using the asymptotic limit of an infinite data set, it is shown that the error bars have an approximate relation to the density of data in input space.

A cross-cultural study of factors influencing helping behaviour

The burgeoning research into altruism and helping behaviour has examined the effect of many variables that enhance or inhibit helpfulness, but little attention has been given to the influence of culture. In the present research, data on various aspects of helping behaviour were collected in both the UK and the Sudan so that the importance of cultural influences could be investigated. In addition this research also tested the validity of current models of helping. In a repertory grid study, urgency and cost emerged as the main constructs people in the two countries use to distinguish between various helpful situations. A laboratory experiment designed to test existing models of intervention behaviour found significant main effects of country, group, size, cost and urgency; and a group size/urgency interaction. Subjects in the Sudan intervened faster than subjects in the UK; lone subjects intervened faster than subjects in small and large groups; subjects in low cost intervened faster than subjects in high cost conditions; and subjects in high urgency intervened faster than subjects in low urgency conditions. Group size effect was stronger in low than in high urgency conditions. Two field studies further investigated the effect of urgency and cost in urban-nonurban context. Significant main effects of urgency and cost were found in cities but not in towns; and people in cities were less helpful than people in towns. A questionnaire survey found that in both countries there were significant urban-nonurban differences in the incidence of reported social contacts and exchange of helpful acts between acquaintances, neighbours and strangers. However, there were no urban-nonurban differences between relatives and close friends. Finally, attitudes to altruism and helpfulness did not differ between the two countries or between urban and nonurban residents. The results highlight the need to incorporate urgency and cultural variables in theoretical models of helping behaviour.