Adjoint goal-based error norms for adaptive mesh ocean modelling

Flow in the world's oceans occurs at a wide range of spatial scales, from a fraction of a metre up to many thousands of kilometers. In particular, regions of intense flow are often highly localised, for example, western boundary currents, equatorial jets, overflows and convective plumes. Conventional numerical ocean models generally use static meshes. The use of dynamically-adaptive meshes has many potential advantages but needs to be guided by an error measure reflecting the underlying physics. A method of defining an error measure to guide an adaptive meshing algorithm for unstructured tetrahedral finite elements, utilizing an adjoint or goal-based method, is described here. This method is based upon a functional, encompassing important features of the flow structure. The sensitivity of this functional, with respect to the solution variables, is used as the basis from which an error measure is derived. This error measure acts to predict those areas of the domain where resolution should be changed. A barotropic wind driven gyre problem is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the method. The overall objective of this work is to develop robust error measures for use in an oceanographic context which will ensure areas of fine mesh resolution are used only where and when they are required. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Revisiting youden’s index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous score for classification of study participants into healthy or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might be confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead, an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden’s index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel–Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden’s index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Influence of fibrolytic enzymes on the hydrolysis and fermentation of pure cellulose and xylan by mixed ruminal microorganisms in vitro

A series of in vitro studies was, conducted to determine the effects of adding a commercial enzyme product on the hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose, xylan, and a mixture (1:1 wt/wt) of both. The enzyme product (Liquicell 2500, Specialty Enzymes and Biochemicals, Fresno, CA) was derived from Trichoderma reesei and contained mainly xylanase and cellulase activities. Addition of enzyme (0.5, 2.55 and 5.1 muL/g of DM) in the absence of ruminal fluid increased (P < 0.001) the release of reducing sugars from xylan and the mixture after 20 h of incubation at 20degreesC. Incubations with ruminal fluid showed that enzyme (0.5 and 2.55 muL/g of DM) increased (P < 0.05) the initial (up to 6 h) xylanase, endoglucanase, and beta-D-glucosidase activities in the liquid fraction by an average of 85%. Xylanase and endoglucanase activities in the solid fraction also were increased (P < 0.05) by enzyme addition, indicating an increase in fibrolytic activity due to ruminal microbes. Gas production over 96 h of incubation was determined using a gas pressure measurement technique. Incremental levels of enzyme increased (P < 0.05) the rate of gas production of all substrates, suggesting that fermentation of cellulose and xylan was enzyme-limited. However, adding the enzyme at levels higher than 2.55 muL/g of DM failed to further increase the rate of gas production, indicating that the maximal level of stimulation was already achieved at lower enzyme concentrations. It was concluded that enzymes enhanced the fermentation of cellulose and xylan by a combination of pre- and postincubation effects (i.e., an increase in the release of reducing sugars during the pretreatment phase and an increase in the hydrolytic activity of the liquid and solid fractions of the ruminal fluid), which was reflected in a higher rate of fermentation.

In vitro cumulative gas production techniques: History, methodological considerations and challenges

Methodology used to measure in vitro gas production is reviewed to determine impacts of sources of variation on resultant gas production profiles (GPP). Current methods include measurement of gas production at constant pressure (e.g., use of gas tight syringes), a system that is inexpensive, but may be less sensitive than others thereby affecting its suitability in some situations. Automated systems that measure gas production at constant volume allow pressure to accumulate in the bottle, which is recorded at different times to produce a GPP, and may result in sufficiently high pressure that solubility of evolved gases in the medium is affected, thereby resulting in a recorded volume of gas that is lower than that predicted from stoichiometric calculations. Several other methods measure gas production at constant pressure and volume with either pressure transducers or sensors, and these may be manual, semi-automated or fully automated in operation. In these systems, gas is released as pressure increases, and vented gas is recorded. Agitating the medium does not consistently produce more gas with automated systems, and little or no effect of agitation was observed with manual systems. The apparatus affects GPP, but mathematical manipulation may enable effects of apparatus to be removed. The amount of substrate affects the volume of gas produced, but not rate of gas production, provided there is sufficient buffering capacity in the medium. Systems that use a very small amount of substrate are prone to experimental error in sample weighing. Effect of sample preparation on GPP has been found to be important, but further research is required to determine the optimum preparation that mimics animal chewing. Inoculum is the single largest source of variation in measuring GPP, as rumen fluid is variable and sampling schedules, diets fed to donor animals and ratios of rumen fluid/medium must be selected such that microbial activity is sufficiently high that it does not affect rate and extent of fermentation. Species of donor animal may also cause differences in GPP. End point measures can be mathematically manipulated to account for species differences, but rates of fermentation are not related. Other sources of inocula that have been used include caecal fluid (primarily for investigating hindgut fermentation in monogastrics), effluent from simulated rumen fermentation (e.g., 'Rusitec', which was as variable as rumen fluid), faeces, and frozen or freeze-dried rumen fluid (which were both less active than fresh rumen fluid). Use of mixtures of cell-free enzymes, or pure cultures of bacteria, may be a way of increasing GPP reproducibility, while reducing reliance on surgically modified animals. However, more research is required to develop these inocula. A number of media have been developed which buffer the incubation and provide relevant micro-nutrients to the microorganisms. To date, little research has been completed on relationships between the composition of the medium and measured GPP. However, comparing GPP from media either rich in N or N-free, allows assessment of contributions of N containing compounds in the sample. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Revisiting Youden's index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous Score for classification of study participants into healthy, or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between Studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might he confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off Value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden's index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel-Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden's index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Cycloadditions of chiral carbonyl ylides with imine dipolarophiles as a route to enantiomerically pure alpha-amino-beta-hydroxy acids

The preparation of enantiomerically pure threo-beta-amino-alpha-hydroxy acids via 1,3-dipolar cycloadditions of imine dipolarophiles with the chiral isomunchnone derived from (5R)-5-phenylmorpholin-3-one 1 is described. The cycloadducts were obtained with excellent diastereofacial- and exo-selectivity. Subsequent hydrolysis and chemoselective exocyclic amide cleavage afforded the threo-beta-amino-alpha-hydroxy acids with recovery of the initial chiral auxiliary. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.