The illusion of control, the structures of prizes and the demand for football pools in Spain

Using data for all the fixtures for the seasons from 1972-73 to 2002-03, we estimate a dynamic model of demand for football pools in Spain paying attention to whether their main economic explanatory variable is the effective price of a ticket or the jackpot. Additionally, we evaluate the importance of the composition of the list of games in terms of whether First Division matches are included or not. Results show that the jackpot model is preferred to the effective price model, having important implications in terms of how the structure of the game should be changed in order to increase demand.

The skill bias of world trade

Under plausible assumptions about preferences and technology, the model in this papersuggests that the entire volume of world trade matters for wage inequality. Therefore,trade integration, even among identical countries, is likely to increase the skill premium.Further, we argue that empirical evidence of a falling relative price of skill-intensive goods can be reconciled with the fast growth of world trade and that the intersectoral mobility of capital exacerbates the effect of trade on inequality. We provide new empirical evidence in support of our results and a quantitative assessment of the skill bias of world trade.

A comparison of stock market mechanisms

This paper studies the relationship between the amount of publicinformation that stock market prices incorporate and the equilibriumbehavior of market participants. The analysis is framed in a static, NREEsetup where traders exchange vectors of assets accessing multidimensionalinformation under two alternative market structures. In the first(the unrestricted system), both informed and uninformed speculators cancondition their demands for each traded asset on all equilibrium prices;in the second (the restricted system), they are restricted to conditiontheir demand on the price of the asset they want to trade. I show thatinformed traders incentives to exploit multidimensional privateinformation depend on the number of prices they can condition upon whensubmitting their demand schedules, and on the specific price formationprocess one considers. Building on this insight, I then give conditionsunder which the restricted system is more efficient than the unrestrictedsystem.

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass vs gastric banding for morbid obesity: a case-matched study of 442 patients.

HYPOTHESIS: Gastric banding (GB) and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) are used in the treatment of morbidly obese patients. We hypothesized that RYGBP provides superior results. DESIGN: Matched-pair study in patients with a body mass index (BMI) less than 50. SETTING: University hospital and regional community hospital with a common bariatric surgeon. PATIENTS: Four hundred forty-two patients were matched according to sex, age, and BMI. INTERVENTIONS: Laparoscopic GB or RYGBP. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Operative morbidity, weight loss, residual BMI, quality of life, food tolerance, lipid profile, and long-term morbidity. RESULTS: Follow-up was 92.3% at the end of the study period (6 years postoperatively). Early morbidity was higher after RYGBP than after GB (17.2% vs 5.4%; P<.001), but major morbidity was similar. Weight loss was quicker, maximal weight loss was greater, and weight loss remained significantly better after RYGBP until the sixth postoperative year. At 6 years, there were more failures (BMI>35 or reversal of the procedure/conversion) after GB (48.3% vs 12.3%; P<.001). There were more long-term complications (41.6% vs 19%; P.001) and more reoperations (26.7% vs 12.7%; P<.001) after GB. Comorbidities improved more after RYGBP. CONCLUSIONS: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is associated with better weight loss, resulting in a better correction of some comorbidities than GB, at the price of a higher early complication rate. This difference, however, is largely compensated by the much higher long-term complication and reoperation rates seen after GB.

How important are tobacco prices in the propensity to start and quit smoking? An analysis of smoking histories from the Spanish National Health Survey

This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.

The Energy metabolism of China and India between 1971-2010: studying the bifurcation

This paper presents a comparison of the changes in the energetic metabolic pattern of China and India, the two most populated countries in the world, with two economies undergoing an important economic transition. The comparison of the changes in the energetic metabolic pattern has the scope to characterize and explain a bifurcation in their evolutionary path in the recent years, using the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach. The analysis shows an impressive transformation of China’s energy metabolism determined by the joining of the WTO in 2001. Since then, China became the largest factory of the world with a generalized capitalization of all sectors ―especially the industrial sector― boosting economic labor productivity as well as total energy consumption. India, on the contrary, lags behind when considering these factors. Looking at changes in the household sector (energy metabolism associated with final consumption) in the case of China, the energetic metabolic rate (EMR) soared in the last decade, also thanks to a reduced growth of population, whereas in India it remained stagnant for the last 40 years. This analysis indicates a big challenge for India for the next decade. In the light of the data analyzed both countries will continue to require strong injections of technical capital requiring a continuous increase in their total energy consumption. When considering the size of these economies it is easy to guess that this may induce a dramatic increase in the price of energy, an event that at the moment will penalize much more the chance of a quick economic development of India.

Minimal data requirements for a continuous monitoring of the quality of care using the DRG classification.

The DRG classification provides a useful tool for the evaluation of hospital care. Indicators such as readmissions and mortality rates adjusted for the hospital Casemix could be adopted in Switzerland at the price of minor additions to the hospital discharge record. The additional information required to build patients histories and to identify the deaths occurring after hospital discharge is detailed.

Changes in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics after withdrawal of cefepime from the market: an interrupted time series analysis

Background and objective: Cefepime was one of the most used broad-spectrum antibiotics in Swiss public acute care hospitals. The drug was withdrawn from market in January 2007, and then replaced by a generic since October 2007. The goal of the study was to evaluate changes in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics after the withdrawal of the cefepime original product. Design: A generalized regression-based interrupted time series model incorporating autocorrelated errors assessed how much the withdrawal changed the monthly use of other broad-spectrum antibiotics (ceftazidime, imipenem/cilastin, meropenem, piperacillin/ tazobactam) in defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days from January 2004 to December 2008 [1, 2]. Setting: 10 Swiss public acute care hospitals (7 with\200 beds, 3 with 200-500 beds). Nine hospitals (group A) had a shortage of cefepime and 1 hospital had no shortage thanks to importation of cefepime from abroad. Main outcome measures: Underlying trend of use before the withdrawal, and changes in the level and in the trend of use after the withdrawal. Results: Before the withdrawal, the average estimated underlying trend (coefficient b1) for cefepime was decreasing by -0.047 (95% CI -0.086, -0.009) DDD/100 bed-days per month and was significant in three hospitals (group A, P\0.01). Cefepime withdrawal was associated with a significant increase in level of use (b2) of piperacillin/tazobactam and imipenem/cilastin in, respectively, one and five hospitals from group A. After the withdrawal, the average estimated trend (b3) was greatest for piperacillin/tazobactam (+0.043 DDD/100 bed-days per month; 95% CI -0.001, 0.089) and was significant in four hospitals from group A (P\0.05). The hospital without drug shortage showed no significant change in the trend and the level of use. The hypothesis of seasonality was rejected in all hospitals. Conclusions: The decreased use of cefepime already observed before its withdrawal from the market could be explained by pre-existing difficulty in drug supply. The withdrawal of cefepime resulted in change in level for piperacillin/tazobactam and imipenem/cilastin. Moreover, an increase in trend was found for piperacillin/tazobactam thereafter. As these changes generally occur at the price of lower bacterial susceptibility, a manufacturers' commitment to avoid shortages in the supply of their products would be important. As perspectives, we will measure the impact of the changes in cost and sensitivity rates of these antibiotics.

Effectiveness of fused magnesium potassium phosphate for marandu grass

The current high price of KCl and great dependence on importation to satisfy the Brazilian demand indicate the need for studies that evaluate the efficiency of other K sources, particularly those based on domestic raw material. For this purpose, a greenhouse experiment was conducted with samples of a sandy clay loam Typic Haplustox, in a completely randomized 4 x 3 x 2 factorial design: four K rates (0, 60, 120, and 180 mg kg-1), three sources (potassium chloride (KCl), fused magnesium potassium phosphate (FMPP) and a mixture of 70 % FMPP + 30 % KCl) and two particle sizes (100 and 60 mesh), with three replications. Potassium fertilization resulted in significant increases in shoot dry matter production and in K concentrations, both in soil and plants. The K source and particle size had no significant effect on the evaluated characteristics. Potassium critical levels in the soil and the shoots were 1.53 mmol c dm-3 and 19.1 g kg-1, respectively.

In vivo survival of teicoplanin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and fitness cost of teicoplanin resistance.

Glycopeptide resistance, in a set of in vitro step-selected teicoplanin-resistant mutants derived from susceptible Staphylococcus aureus SA113, was associated with slower growth, thickening of the bacterial cell wall, increased N-acetylglucosamine incorporation, and decreased hemolysis. Differential transcriptome analysis showed that as resistance increased, some virulence-associated genes became downregulated. In a mouse tissue cage infection model, an inoculum of 10(4) CFU of strain SA113 rapidly produced a high-bacterial-load infection, which triggered MIP-2 release, leukocyte infiltration, and reduced leukocyte viability. In contrast, with the same inoculum of the isogenic glycopeptide-resistant derivative NM67, CFU initially decreased, resulting in the elimination of the mutant in three out of seven cages. In the four cages in which NM67 survived, it partially regained wild-type characteristics, including thinning of the cell wall, reduced N-acetylglucosamine uptake, and increased hemolysis; however, the survivors also became teicoplanin hypersusceptible. The elimination of the teicoplanin-resistant mutants and selection of teicoplanin-hypersusceptible survivors in the tissue cages indicated that glycopeptide resistance imposes a fitness burden on S. aureus and is selected against in vivo, with restoration of fitness incurring the price of resistance loss.

EFFECT OF ALTERNATIVE MULTINUTRIENT SOURCES ON SOIL CHEMICAL PROPERTIES

The current high price of potassium chloride and the dependence of Brazil on imported materials to supply the domestic demand call for studies evaluating the efficiency of alternative sources of nutrients. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of silicate rock powder and a manganese mining by-product, and secondary materials originated from these two materials, on soil chemical properties and on brachiaria production. This greenhouse experiment was conducted in pots with 5 kg of soil (Latossolo Vermelho-Amarelo distrófico - Oxisol). The alternative nutrient sources were: verdete, verdete treated with NH4OH, phonolite, ultramafic rock, mining waste and the proportion of 75 % of these K fertilizers and 25 % lime. Mixtures containing 25 % of lime were heated at 800 ºC for 1 h. These sources were applied at rates of 0, 150, 300, 450 and 600 kg ha-1 K2O, and incubated for 45 days. The mixtures of heated silicate rocks with lime promoted higher increases in soil pH in decreasing order: ultramafic rock>verdete>phonolite>mining waste. Applying the mining waste-lime mixture increased soil exchangeable K, and available P when ultramafic rock was incorporated. When ultramafic rock was applied, the release of Ca2+ increased significantly. Mining subproduct released the highest amount of Zn2+ and Mn2+ to the soil. The application of alternative sources of K, with variable chemical composition, altered the nutrient availability and soil chemical properties, improving mainly plant development and K plant uptake, and are important nutrient sources.

Recycling of Portland Cement Concrete Roads in Iowa, MLR-77-6, 1977

We are depleting the once seemingly endless supply of aggregate available for concrete paving in Iowa. At the present time, some parts of our state do not have locally available aggregates of acceptable quality for portland cement concrete paving. This necessitates lengthy truck and rail hauls which frequently more than doubles the price of aggregate. In some parts of the state, the only coarse aggregates available locally are "d-cracking" in nature. Iowa's recycling projects were devised to alleviate the shortage of aggregates wherever they were found to have an economic advantage. We completed our first recycling project in 1976 on a 1.4 project in Lyon county. The data collected in this project was used to schedule two additional projects in 1977. The larger of these two projects is located in Page and Taylor county on Highway #2 and is approximately 15 miles in length. This material is to be crushed and re-used in the concrete paving, it is to be reconstructed on approximately the same alignment. The second project is part of the construction of Interstate I-680 north of council Bluffs where an existing 24 foot portland cement concrete roadway is to be recycled and used as the aggregate in the slip form econocrete subbase and the portland cement concrete shoulders.

Economics of Using Calcium Chloride vs. Sodium Chloride for Deicing/Anti-Icing, TR-488, 2008

The use of chemicals is a critical part of a pro-active winter maintenance program. However, ensuring that the correct chemicals are used is a challenge. On the one hand, budgets are limited, and thus price of chemicals is a major concern. On the other, performance of chemicals, especially at lower pavement temperatures, is not always assured. Two chemicals that are used extensively by the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are sodium chloride (or salt) and calcium chloride. While calcium chloride can be effective at much lower temperatures than salt, it is also considerably more expensive. Costs for a gallon of salt brine are typically in the range of $0.05 to $0.10, whereas calcium chloride brine may cost in the range of $1.00 or more per gallon. These costs are of course subject to market forces and will thus change from year to year. The idea of mixing different winter maintenance chemicals is by no means new, and in general discussions it appears that many winter maintenance personnel have from time to time mixed up a jar of chemicals and done some work around the yard to see whether or not their new mix “works.” There are many stories about the mixture turning to “mayonnaise” (or, more colorfully, to “snot”) suggesting that mixing chemicals may give rise to some problems most likely due to precipitation. Further, the question of what constitutes a mixture “working” in this context is a topic of considerable discussion. In this study, mixtures of salt brine and calcium chloride brine were examined to determine their ice melting capability and their freezing point. Using the results from these tests, a linear interpolation model of the ice melting capability of mixtures of the two brines has been developed. Using a criterion based upon the ability of the mixture to melt a certain thickness of ice or snow (expressed as a thickness of melt-water equivalent), the model was extended to develop a material cost per lane mile for the full range of possible mixtures as a function of temperature. This allowed for a comparison of the performance of the various mixtures. From the point of view of melting capacity, mixing calcium chloride brine with salt brine appears to be effective only at very low temperatures (around 0° F and below). However, the approach described herein only considers the material costs, and does not consider application costs or other aspects of the mixture performance than melting capacity. While a unit quantity of calcium chloride is considerably more expensive than a unit quantity of sodium chloride, it also melts considerably more ice. In other words, to achieve the same result, much less calcium chloride brine is required than sodium chloride brine. This is important in considering application costs, because it means that a single application vehicle (for example, a brine dispensing trailer towed behind a snowplow) can cover many more lane miles with calcium chloride brine than with salt brine before needing to refill. Calculating exactly how much could be saved in application costs requires an optimization of routes used in the application of liquids in anti-icing, which is beyond the scope of the current study. However, this may be an area that agencies wish to pursue for future investigation. In discussion with winter maintenance personnel who use mixtures of sodium chloride and calcium chloride, it is evident that one reason for this is because the mixture is much more persistent (i.e. it stays longer on the road surface) than straight salt brine. Operationally this persistence is very valuable, but at present there are not any established methods to measure the persistence of a chemical on a pavement. In conclusion, the study presents a method that allows an agency to determine the material costs of using various mixtures of salt brine and calcium chloride brine. The method is based upon the requirement of melting a certain quantity of snow or ice at the ice-pavement interface, and on how much of a chemical or of a mixture of chemicals is required to do that.

Newer antiepileptic drugs in the treatment of status epilepticus: Impact on prognosis.

Newer antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) are increasingly prescribed and seem to have a comparable efficacy as the classical AEDs; however, their impact on status epilepticus (SE) prognosis has received little attention. In our prospective SE database (2006-2010), we assessed the use of older versus newer AEDs (levetiracetam, pregabalin, topiramate, lacosamide) over time and its relationship to outcome (return to clinical baseline conditions, new handicap, or death). Newer AEDs were used more often toward the end of the study period (42% of episodes versus 30%). After adjustment for SE etiology, SE severity score, and number of compounds needed to terminate SE, newer AEDs were independently related to a reduced likelihood of return to baseline (p<0.001) but not to increased mortality. These findings seem in line with recent findings on refractory epilepsy. Also, in view of the higher price of the newer AEDs, well-designed, prospective assessments analyzing the impact of newer AEDs on efficacy and tolerability in patients with SE appear mandatory.