Is There a Crime Drop in Western Europe?

Combining data from police statistics and crime victim surveys, this article analyses the evolution of crime in Western Europe from 1988 to 2007. The results show that there is no general drop in crime. Property offences and homicide have been decreasing since the mid 1990s, while violent and drug offences have increased during the period under study. These trends highlight the limits of the explanations to the crime drop in the United States, which are based on the premise of a correlation in the evolution of all offences. The drop in property offences seems related to changes in the socioeconomic situation in Europe as well as to increases in security measures in households, and the reinforcement of private security. The increase in violent offences can be explained by the combination of several factors, including changes in youth's free time provoked by the development of the Internet, changing demographics, and the rise of episodic heavy alcohol consumption and street gangs.

The relation of body mass index and abdominal adiposity with dyslipidemia in 27 general populations of the WHO MONICA Project.

The association between adiposity measures and dyslipidemia has seldom been assessed in a multipopulational setting. 27 populations from Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (WHO MONICA project) using health surveys conducted between 1990 and 1997 in adults aged 35-64 years (n = 40,480). Dyslipidemia was defined as the total/HDL cholesterol ratio >6 (men) and >5 (women). Overall prevalence of dyslipidemia was 25% in men and 23% in women. Logistic regression showed that dyslipidemia was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) in men and with waist circumference (WC) in women, after adjusting for region, age and smoking. Among normal-weight men and women (BMI<25 kg/m(2)), an increase in the odds for being dyslipidemic was observed between lowest and highest WC quartiles (OR = 3.6, p < 0.001). Among obese men (BMI ≥ 30), the corresponding increase was smaller (OR = 1.2, p = 0.036). A similar weakening was observed among women. Classification tree analysis was performed to assign subjects into classes of risk for dyslipidemia. BMI thresholds (25.4 and 29.2 kg/m(2)) in men and WC thresholds (81.7 and 92.6 cm) in women came out at first stages. High WC (>84.8 cm) in normal-weight men, menopause in women and regular smoking further defined subgroups at increased risk. standard categories of BMI and WC, or their combinations, do not lead to optimal risk stratification for dyslipidemia in middle-age adults. Sex-specific adaptations are necessary, in particular by taking into account abdominal obesity in normal-weight men, post-menopausal age in women and regular smoking in both sexes.

Os Determinantes da Política de Distribuição de Dividendos

No presente trabalho estudam-se os determinantes da política de dividendos. A temática dos dividendos até hoje abarca várias questões sem respostas. O objectivo aqui traçado foi o de estudar os determinantes dos dividendos distribuídos pelas empresas não financeiras que constituem o Índice PSI-20 (Portuguese Stock Index), em particular tentar identificar quais os factores que levam essas empresas a atribuírem dividendos, tendo em conta o que é sugerido pela literatura. Foi adoptado uma metodologia baseada no modelo de regressão linear multivariada estimado pelo método dos mínimos quadrados ordinários através da técnica de dados em painel, balanceados e com efeitos fixos. A amostra foi constituída por 12 empresas não financeiras do índice PSI-20 entre o período de 2002 e 2009. A política de dividendos foi medida pela variável dependente denominada de rácio de distribuição de dividendos. Ao testar quais as variáveis explicativas que têm um impacto significativo (positivo ou negativo) nesse rácio conforme os sinais observados na literatura, bem como, se os sectores de actividade em que se enquadram cada empresa podem condicionar a referida política, chegou-se às seguintes conclusões: o Market to Book ratio, o Debt to Equity ratio e o Size apresentam evidências de serem factores determinantes dos dividendos enquanto a Rendibilidade das Vendas, o Price to Earnings ratio, a Liquidez, o Float e o Beta não apresentaram evidências de serem determinantes da política de dividendos das empresas analisadas. Os resultados sugerem ainda que os sectores em que se enquadram cada empresa estudada podem ser vistos como sectores cujas empresas têm a tendência de pagar menos dividendos.

OS DETERMINANTES DA POLÍTICA DE DISTRIBUIÇÃO DE DIVIDENDOS: O CASO DAS EMPRESAS NÃO FINANCEIRAS DO ÍNDICE PSI-20

No presente trabalho estudam-se os determinantes da política de dividendos. A temática dos dividendos até hoje abarca várias questões sem respostas. O objectivo aqui traçado foi o de estudar os determinantes dos dividendos distribuídos pelas empresas não financeiras que constituem o Índice PSI-20 (Portuguese Stock Index), em particular tentar identificar quais os factores que levam essas empresas a atribuírem dividendos, tendo em conta o que é sugerido pela literatura. Foi adoptado uma metodologia baseada no modelo de regressão linear multivariada estimado pelo método dos mínimos quadrados ordinários através da técnica de dados em painel, balanceados e com efeitos fixos. A amostra foi constituída por 12 empresas não financeiras do índice PSI-20 entre o período de 2002 e 2009. A política de dividendos foi medida pela variável dependente denominada de rácio de distribuição de dividendos. Ao testar quais as variáveis explicativas que têm um impacto significativo (positivo ou negativo) nesse rácio conforme os sinais observados na literatura, bem como, se os sectores de actividade em que se enquadram cada empresa podem condicionar a referida política, chegou-se às seguintes conclusões: o Market to Book ratio, o Debt to Equity ratio e o Size apresentam evidências de serem factores determinantes dos dividendos enquanto a Rendibilidade das Vendas, o Price to Earnings ratio, a Liquidez, o Float e o Beta não apresentaram evidências de serem determinantes da política de dividendos das empresas analisadas. Os resultados sugerem ainda que os sectores em que se enquadram cada empresa estudada podem ser vistos como sectores cujas empresas têm a tendência de pagar menos dividendos.

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets, 2007

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of cornbased ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.

Ratio maps and correspondence analysis

We compare two methods for visualising contingency tables and developa method called the ratio map which combines the good properties of both.The first is a biplot based on the logratio approach to compositional dataanalysis. This approach is founded on the principle of subcompositionalcoherence, which assures that results are invariant to considering subsetsof the composition. The second approach, correspondence analysis, isbased on the chi-square approach to contingency table analysis. Acornerstone of correspondence analysis is the principle of distributionalequivalence, which assures invariance in the results when rows or columnswith identical conditional proportions are merged. Both methods may bedescribed as singular value decompositions of appropriately transformedmatrices. Correspondence analysis includes a weighting of the rows andcolumns proportional to the margins of the table. If this idea of row andcolumn weights is introduced into the logratio biplot, we obtain a methodwhich obeys both principles of subcompositional coherence and distributionalequivalence.

Safety Impacts of Pavement Edge Drop-offs, 2006

A vehicle may leave its travel lane for a number of reasons, such as driver error, poor surface conditions, or avoidance of a collision with another vehicle in the travel lane. When a vehicle leaves the travel lane, pavement edge drop-off poses a potential safety hazard because significant vertical differences between surfaces can affect vehicle stability and reduce a driver’s ability to handle the vehicle. Numerous controlled studies have tested driver response to encountering drop-offs under various conditions, including different speeds, vehicle types, drop-off height and shape, and tire scrubbing versus non-scrubbing conditions. The studies evaluated the drivers’ ability to return to and recover within their own travel lane after leaving the roadway and encountering a drop-off. Many of these studies, however, have used professional drivers as test subjects, so results may not always apply to the population of average drivers. Furthermore, test subjects are always briefed on what generally is to be expected and how to respond; thus, the sense of surprise that a truly naïve driver may experience upon realizing that one or two of his or her tires have just dropped off the edge of the pavement, is very likely diminished. Additionally, the studies were carried out under controlled conditions. The actual impact of pavement edge drop-off on drivers’ ability to recover safely once they leave the roadway, however, is not well understood under actual driving conditions. Additionally, little information is available that quantifies the number or severity of crashes that occur where pavement edge drop-off may have been a contributing factor. Without sufficient information about the frequency of edge drop-off-related crashes, agencies are not fully able to measure the economic benefits of investment decisions, evaluate the effectiveness of different treatments to mitigate edge drop-off, or focus maintenance resources. To address these issues, this report details research to quantify the contribution of pavement edge drop-off to crash frequency and severity. Additionally, the study evaluated federal and state guidance in sampling and addressing pavement edge drop-off and quantified the extent of pavement edge drop-off in two states. This study focused on rural two-lane paved roadways with unpaved shoulders, since they are often high speed facilities (55+ mph), have varying levels of maintenance, and are likely to be characterized by adverse roadway conditions such as narrow lanes or no shoulders.

Oil price shocks, income and democracy

We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations ondemocratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploitthe very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations tostudy the effect of persistent (oil price-driven) income shocks ondemocracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oilexports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutionsfollowing upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to apositive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score byaround 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentagepoints in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratictransition is around 0.4 percentage points.

On the impact of leverage constraints on asset prices and trading volume

Researchers have used stylized facts on asset prices and trading volumein stock markets (in particular, the mean reversion of asset returnsand the correlations between trading volume, price changes and pricelevels) to support theories where agents are not rational expected utilitymaximizers. This paper shows that this empirical evidence is in factconsistent with a standard infite horizon perfect information expectedutility economy where some agents face leverage constraints similar tothose found in todays financial markets. In addition, and in sharpcontrast to the theories above, we explain some qualitative differencesthat are observed in the price-volume relation on stock and on futuresmarkets. We consider a continuous-time economy where agents maximize theintegral of their discounted utility from consumption under both budgetand leverage con-straints. Building on the work by Vila and Zariphopoulou(1997), we find a closed form solution, up to a negative constant, for theequilibrium prices and demands in the region of the state space where theconstraint is non-binding. We show that, at the equilibrium, stock holdingsvolatility as well as its ratio to stock price volatility are increasingfunctions of the stock price and interpret this finding in terms of theprice-volume relation.

Consistent solutions in exchange economies: A characterization of the price mechanism

We characterize the Walrasian allocations correspondence by means offour axioms: consistency, replica invariance, individual rationality andPareto optimality. It is shown that for any given class of exchange economiesany solution that satisfies the axioms is a selection from the Walrasianallocations with slack. Preferences are assumed to be smooth, but may besatiated and non--convex. A class of economies is defined as all economieswhose agents' preferences belong to an arbitrary family (finite or infinite)of types. The result can be modified to characterize equal budget Walrasianallocations with slack by replacing individual rationality with individualrationality from equal division. The results are valid also for classes ofeconomies in which core--Walras equivalence does not hold.

Source inference of exogenous gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) administered to humans by means of carbon isotopic ratio analysis: novel perspectives regarding forensic investigation and intelligence issues.

γ-Hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) is an endogenous short-chain fatty acid popular as a recreational drug due to sedative and euphoric effects, but also often implicated in drug-facilitated sexual assaults owing to disinhibition and amnesic properties. Whilst discrimination between endogenous and exogenous GHB as required in intoxication cases may be achieved by the determination of the carbon isotope content, such information has not yet been exploited to answer source inference questions of forensic investigation and intelligence interests. However, potential isotopic fractionation effects occurring through the whole metabolism of GHB may be a major concern in this regard. Thus, urine specimens from six healthy male volunteers who ingested prescription GHB sodium salt, marketed as Xyrem(®), were analysed by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry to assess this particular topic. A very narrow range of δ(13)C values, spreading from -24.810/00 to -25.060/00, was observed, whilst mean δ(13)C value of Xyrem(®) corresponded to -24.990/00. Since urine samples and prescription drug could not be distinguished by means of statistical analysis, carbon isotopic effects and subsequent influence on δ(13)C values through GHB metabolism as a whole could be ruled out. Thus, a link between GHB as a raw matrix and found in a biological fluid may be established, bringing relevant information regarding source inference evaluation. Therefore, this study supports a diversified scope of exploitation for stable isotopes characterized in biological matrices from investigations on intoxication cases to drug intelligence programmes.