The handaxe and the microscope: individual and social learning in a multidimensional model of adaptation

When individuals learn by trial-and-error, they perform randomly chosen actions and then reinforce those actions that led to a high payoff. However, individuals do not always have to physically perform an action in order to evaluate its consequences. Rather, they may be able to mentally simulate actions and their consequences without actually performing them. Such fictitious learners can select actions with high payoffs without making long chains of trial-and-error learning. Here, we analyze the evolution of an n-dimensional cultural trait (or artifact) by learning, in a payoff landscape with a single optimum. We derive the stochastic learning dynamics of the distance to the optimum in trait space when choice between alternative artifacts follows the standard logit choice rule. We show that for both trial-and-error and fictitious learners, the learning dynamics stabilize at an approximate distance of root n/(2 lambda(e)) away from the optimum, where lambda(e) is an effective learning performance parameter depending on the learning rule under scrutiny. Individual learners are thus unlikely to reach the optimum when traits are complex (n large), and so face a barrier to further improvement of the artifact. We show, however, that this barrier can be significantly reduced in a large population of learners performing payoff-biased social learning, in which case lambda(e) becomes proportional to population size. Overall, our results illustrate the effects of errors in learning, levels of cognition, and population size for the evolution of complex cultural traits. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulit, un modèle de simulation pour la planification hospitalière. [Simulit, a simulation model for hospital planning].

The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

Population viscosity can promote the evolution of altruistic sterile helpers and eusociality.

Because it increases relatedness between interacting individuals, population viscosity has been proposed to favour the evolution of altruistic helping. However, because it increases local competition between relatives, population viscosity may also act as a brake for the evolution of helping behaviours. In simple models, the kin selected fecundity benefits of helping are exactly cancelled out by the cost of increased competition between relatives when helping occurs after dispersal. This result has lead to the widespread view, especially among people working with social organisms, that special conditions are required for the evolution of altruism. Here, we re-examine this result by constructing a simple population genetic model where we analyse whether the evolution of a sterile worker caste (i.e. an extreme case of altruism) can be selected for by limited dispersal. We show that a sterile worker caste can be selected for even under the simplest life-cycle assumptions. This has relevant consequences for our understanding of the evolution of altruism in social organisms, as many social insects are characterized by limited dispersal and significant genetic population structure.

Population pharmacokinetics in chronic myeloid leukaemia patients: observations under field-conditions

Introduction: Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib has been increasingly proposed for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) patients, as several studies have found a correlation between trough concentrations (Cmin) >=1000ng/ml and improved response. The pharmacological monitoring project of EUTOS (European Treatment and Outcome Study) was launched to increase the availability of imatinib TDM, standardize labs, and validate proposed Cmin thresholds. Using the collected data, the objective of this analysis was to characterize imatinib Population pharmacokinetics (Pop-PK) in a large cohort of European patients, to quantify its variability and the influence of demographic factors and comedications, and to derive individual exposure variables suitable for further concentration-effect analyses.¦Methods: 4095 PK samples from 2478 adult patients were analyzed between 2006 and 2010 by LC-MS-MS and considered for Pop-PK analysis by NONMEM®. Model building used data from 973 patients with >=2 samples available (2590 samples). A sensitivity analysis was performed using all data. Available comedications (27%) were classified into inducers or inhibitors of P-glycoprotein, CYP3A4/5 and organic-cation-transporter-1 (hOCT-1).¦Results: A one-compartment model with linear elimination, zero-order absorption fitted the data best. Estimated Pop-PK parameters (interindividual variability, IIV %CV) for a 40-year old male patient were: clearance CL = 17.3 L/h (37.7%), volume V = 429L (51.1%), duration of absorption D1 = 3.2h. Outliers, reflecting potential compliance and time recording errors, were taken into account by estimating an IIV on the residual error (35.4%). Intra-individual residuals were 29.1% (proportional) plus ± 84.6 ng/mL (additive). Female patients had a 15.2% lower CL (14.6 L/h). A piece-wise linear effect of age estimated a CL of 18.7 L/h at 20 years, 17.3 L/h at 40 and 13.8 L/h at 60 years. These covariates explained 2% (CL) and 4.5% (V) of IIV variability. No effect of comedication was found. The sensitivity analysis expectedly estimated increased IIV, but similar fixed effect parameters.¦Conclusion: Imatinib PK was well described in a large cohort of CML patients under field conditions and results were concordant with previous studies. Patient characteristics explain only little IIV, confirming limited utility of prior dosage adjustment. As intra-variability is smaller than inter-patient variability, dose adjustment guided by TDM could however be beneficial in order to bring Cmin into a given therapeutic target.

Gender and socioeconomic disparities in BMI trajectories in the Seychelles using birth cohorts generated from serial population-based surveys.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) tends to change over time and across populations. In this study, we examined, separately in men and women, whether the association between BMI and SES changed over successive birth cohorts in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region). METHODS: We used data from all participants in three surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004 in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles (N= 3'403). We used linear regression to model mean BMI according to age, cohort, SES and smoking status, allowing for a quadratic term for age to account for a curvilinear relation between BMI and age and interactions between SES and age and between SES and cohorts to test whether the relation between SES and BMI changed across subsequent cohorts. All analyses were performed separately in men and women. RESULTS: BMI increased with age in all birth cohorts. BMI was lower in men of low SES than high SES but was higher in women of low SES than high SES. In all SES categories, BMI increased over successive cohorts (1.24 kg/m2 in men and 1.51 kg/m2 for a 10-year increase in birth cohorts, p <0.001). The difference in BMI between men or women of high vs. low SES did not change significantly across successive cohorts (the interaction between SES and year of birth of cohort was statistically not significant). Smoking was associated with lower BMI in men and women (respectively -1.55 kg/m2 and 2.46 kg/m2, p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although large differences exist between men and women, social patterning of BMI did not change significantly over successive cohorts in this population of a middle-income country in the African region.

Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population.

CONTEXT: Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS: Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

Population receptive field estimates of human auditory cortex.

Here we describe a method for measuring tonotopic maps and estimating bandwidth for voxels in human primary auditory cortex (PAC) using a modification of the population Receptive Field (pRF) model, developed for retinotopic mapping in visual cortex by Dumoulin and Wandell (2008). The pRF method reliably estimates tonotopic maps in the presence of acoustic scanner noise, and has two advantages over phase-encoding techniques. First, the stimulus design is flexible and need not be a frequency progression, thereby reducing biases due to habituation, expectation, and estimation artifacts, as well as reducing the effects of spatio-temporal BOLD nonlinearities. Second, the pRF method can provide estimates of bandwidth as a function of frequency. We find that bandwidth estimates are narrower for voxels within the PAC than in surrounding auditory responsive regions (non-PAC).

INDISIM-YEAST, an individual-based model to study yeast

INDISIM-YEAST, an individual-based simulator, models the evolution of a yeast population by settingup rules of behaviour for each individual cell according to their own biological rules and characteristics. Ittakes into account the uptake, metabolism, budding reproduction and viability of the yeast cells, over aperiod of time in the bulk of a liquid medium, occupying a three dimensional closed spatial grid with twokinds of particles (glucose and ethanol). Each microorganism is characterized by its biomass, genealogicalage, states in the budding cellular reproduction cycle and position in the space among others. Simulationsare carried out for population properties (global properties), as well as for those properties that pertain toindividual yeast cells (microscopic properties). The results of the simulations are in good qualitativeagreement with established experimental trends.

Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae) throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months) has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

The Besançon Galaxy Model renewed. I. Constraints on the Galactic thin disc evolution from Tycho data

Context. The understanding of Galaxy evolution can be facilitated by the use of population synthesis models, which allow to test hypotheses on the star formation history, star evolution, as well as chemical and dynamical evolution of the Galaxy. Aims. The new version of the Besanc¸on Galaxy Model (hereafter BGM) aims to provide a more flexible and powerful tool to investigate the Initial Mass Function (IMF) and Star Formation Rate (SFR) of the Galactic disc. Methods. We present a new strategy for the generation of thin disc stars which assumes the IMF, SFR and evolutionary tracks as free parameters. We have updated most of the ingredients for the star count production and, for the first time, binary stars are generated in a consistent way. We keep in this new scheme the local dynamical self-consistency as in Bienayme et al (1987). We then compare simulations from the new model with Tycho-2 data and the local luminosity function, as a first test to verify and constrain the new ingredients. The effects of changing thirteen different ingredients of the model are systematically studied. Results. For the first time, a full sky comparison is performed between BGM and data. This strategy allows to constrain the IMF slope at high masses which is found to be close to 3.0, excluding a shallower slope such as Salpeter"s one. The SFR is found decreasing whatever IMF is assumed. The model is compatible with a local dark matter density of 0.011 M pc−3 implying that there is no compelling evidence for significant amount of dark matter in the disc. While the model is fitted to Tycho2 data, a magnitude limited sample with V<11, we check that it is still consistent with fainter stars. Conclusions. The new model constitutes a new basis for further comparisons with large scale surveys and is being prepared to become a powerful tool for the analysis of the Gaia mission data.

Population specific and up to date cardiovascular risk charts can be efficiently obtained with record linkage of routine and observational data.

BACKGROUND: Only few countries have cohorts enabling specific and up-to-date cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. Individual risk assessment based on study samples that differ too much from the target population could jeopardize the benefit of risk charts in general practice. Our aim was to provide up-to-date and valid CVD risk estimation for a Swiss population using a novel record linkage approach. METHODS: Anonymous record linkage was used to follow-up (for mortality, until 2008) 9,853 men and women aged 25-74 years who participated in the Swiss MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CVD) study of 1983-92. The linkage success was 97.8%, loss to follow-up 1990-2000 was 4.7%. Based on the ESC SCORE methodology (Weibull regression), we used age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol to generate three models. We compared the 1) original SCORE model with a 2) recalibrated and a 3) new model using the Brier score (BS) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Based on the cross-validated BS, the new model (BS = 14107×10(-6)) was somewhat more appropriate for risk estimation than the original (BS = 14190×10(-6)) and the recalibrated (BS = 14172×10(-6)) model. Particularly at younger age, derived absolute risks were consistently lower than those from the original and the recalibrated model which was mainly due to a smaller impact of total cholesterol. CONCLUSION: Using record linkage of observational and routine data is an efficient procedure to obtain valid and up-to-date CVD risk estimates for a specific population.

Implementation of population balances in simulation of gas-liquid reactors using a CFD-PBM coupled approach

In bubbly flow simulations, bubble size distribution is an important factor in determination of hydrodynamics. Beside hydrodynamics, it is crucial in the prediction of interfacial area available for mass transfer and in the prediction of reaction rate in gas-liquid reactors such as bubble columns. Solution of population balance equations is a method which can help to model the size distribution by considering continuous bubble coalescence and breakage. Therefore, in Computational Fluid Dynamic simulations it is necessary to couple CFD and Population Balance Model (CFD-PBM) to get reliable distribution. In the current work a CFD-PBM coupled model is implemented as FORTRAN subroutines in ANSYS CFX 10 and it has been tested for bubbly flow. This model uses the idea of Multi Phase Multi Size Group approach which was previously presented by Sha et al. (2006) [18]. The current CFD-PBM coupled method considers inhomogeneous flow field for different bubble size groups in the Eulerian multi-dispersed phase systems. Considering different velocity field for bubbles can give the advantageof more accurate solution of hydrodynamics. It is also an improved method for prediction of bubble size distribution in multiphase flow compared to available commercial packages.

Enhanced cerebral expression of MCT1 and MCT2 in a rat ischemia model occurs in activated microglial cells.

Monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) are essential for the use of lactate, an energy substrate known to be overproduced in brain during an ischemic episode. The expression of MCT1 and MCT2 was investigated at 48 h of reperfusion from focal ischemia induced by unilateral extradural compression in Wistar rats. Increased MCT1 mRNA expression was detected in the injured cortex and hippocampus of compressed animals compared to sham controls. In the contralateral, uncompressed hemisphere, increases in MCT1 mRNA level in the cortex and MCT2 mRNA level in the hippocampus were noted. Interestingly, strong MCT1 and MCT2 protein expression was found in peri-lesional macrophages/microglia and in an isolectin B4+/S100beta+ cell population in the corpus callosum. In vitro, MCT1 and MCT2 protein expression was observed in the N11 microglial cell line, whereas an enhancement of MCT1 expression by tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) was shown in these cells. Modulation of MCT expression in microglia suggests that these transporters may help sustain microglial functions during recovery from focal brain ischemia. Overall, our study indicates that changes in MCT expression around and also away from the ischemic area, both at the mRNA and protein levels, are a part of the metabolic adaptations taking place in the brain after ischemia.

A model for organ donation in switzerland, the latin organ donation programme (lodp); an ongoing successful regional initiative

Background: The 1st Swiss federal Transplant Law was finally enforced in July 2007 with the obligation to promote quality and efficiency in transplant procedures. The LODP was created to develop organ and tissue donation in the Latin area of Switzerland covering seventeen hospitals (29% of the population).Methods: Each of the partner hospitals designated at least one Local Donor Coordinator (LDC), member of the Intensive Care team, trained in the organ donation (OD) process. The principal tasks of the LDC's are the introduction of OD procedures, organisation of educational sessions for hospital staff and execution of the Donor Action programme. The LODP has been operational since July 2009, when training of the LDC's was completed, the web-site and hotline activated and the attendance of Transplant Procurement Coordinators (TPC) during the OD process organised.Results: National and regional guidelines are accessible on the LODP website. The Hospital Attitude Survey obtained a 57% return rate. Many of the staff requested training and sessions are now running in the partner hospitals. The Medical Record Revue revealed an increase in the conversion rate from 3.5% to 4.5%. During the 5 years before creation of LODP the average annual number of utilised donors was 31, an increase of 70%, has since been observed.Conclusion: This clear progression in utilised donors in the past two years can be attributed to the fact that partner hospitals benefit from the various support given (hotline, website and from TPC's). Despite the increase in OD within the LODP the Swiss donation rates remain low, on average 11.9 donors per million population. This successful model should be applied throughout Switzerland, but the crucial point is to obtain financial support.

Effectiveness of antioxidants in preventing oxidation of palm oil enriched with heme iron: A model for iron fortification in baked products

Bakery products such as biscuits, cookies, and pastries represent a good medium for iron fortification in food products, since they are consumed by a large proportion of the population at risk of developing iron deficiency anemia, mainly children. The drawback, however, is that iron fortification can promote oxidation. To assess the extent of this, palm oil added with heme iron and different antioxidants was used as a model for evaluating the oxidative stability of some bakery products, such as baked goods containing chocolate. The palm oil samples were heated at 220°C for 10 min to mimic the conditions found during a typical baking processing. The selected antioxidants were a free radical scavenger (tocopherol extract (TE), 0 and 500 mg/kg), an oxygen scavenger (ascorbyl palmitate (AP), 0 and 500 mg/kg), and a chelating agent (citric acid (CA), 0 and 300 mg/kg). These antioxidants were combined using a factorial design and were compared to a control sample, which was not supplemented with antioxidants. Primary (peroxide value and lipid hydroperoxide content) and secondary oxidation parameters (p-anisidine value, p-AnV) were monitored over a period of 200 days in storage at room temperature. The combination of AP and CA was the most effective treatment in delaying the onset of oxidation. TE was not effective in preventing oxidation. The p-AnV did not increase during the storage period, indicating that this oxidation marker was not suitable for monitoring oxidation in this model.