Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

Who uses NHS saúde 24 hotline? Has the user changed over time?

There has been an increase in the use of telephone-based services and internet throughout the years and, therefore, the Saúde 24 Hotline has become an important service in Portugal. This service aims to screen, counsel and refer the patient in order to avoid unnecessary visits to health institutions and also to indicate the most appropriate resource according to the illness. This work has two different questions: the first one examines the determinants of satisfaction that have more influence on the overall satisfaction of the Saúde 24 Hotline users. The second one aims to analyze if the confidence level of the users is increasing over time, measured by following the recommendation. The first study was conducted on a random sample collected from June to October 2014, which was taken from the User Satisfaction Survey. The second approach includes data from January 2008 to December 2014 from the Clinical Data Base of all users who have called the Hotline. Findings suggest that the majority of users are very satisfied with the service and the variables with more impact on the overall satisfaction are commitment and availability from the nurse, adequacy of call duration and quick identification of the problem. The survey indicates that 94% of respondents follow the recommendation and on average people have called the hotline 3 times in the previous year. The results from the Clinical Database show that people who were recommended to go to the emergency room are more likely to follow the advice than the people who were recommended to book routine appointments

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

The thermal effects on the methanol-to-olefins reaction: A modelling and experimental approach

With the projection of an increasing world population, hand-in-hand with a journey towards a bigger number of developed countries, further demand on basic chemical building blocks, as ethylene and propylene, has to be properly addressed in the next decades. The methanol-to-olefins (MTO) is an interesting reaction to produce those alkenes using coal, gas or alternative sources, like biomass, through syngas as a source for the production of methanol. This technology has been widely applied since 1985 and most of the processes are making use of zeolites as catalysts, particularly ZSM-5. Although its selectivity is not especially biased over light olefins, it resists to a quick deactivation by coke deposition, making it quite attractive when it comes to industrial environments; nevertheless, this is a highly exothermic reaction, which is hard to control and to anticipate problems, such as temperature runaways or hot-spots, inside the catalytic bed. The main focus of this project is to study those temperature effects, by addressing both experimental, where the catalytic performance and the temperature profiles are studied, and modelling fronts, which consists in a five step strategy to predict the weight fractions and activity. The mind-set of catalytic testing is present in all the developed assays. It was verified that the selectivity towards light olefins increases with temperature, although this also leads to a much faster catalyst deactivation. To oppose this effect, experiments were carried using a diluted bed, having been able to increase the catalyst lifetime between 32% and 47%. Additionally, experiments with three thermocouples placed inside the catalytic bed were performed, analysing the deactivation wave and the peaks of temperature throughout the bed. Regeneration was done between consecutive runs and it was concluded that this action can be a powerful means to increase the catalyst lifetime, maintaining a constant selectivity towards light olefins, by losing acid strength in a steam stabilised zeolitic structure. On the other hand, developments on the other approach lead to the construction of a raw basic model, able to predict weight fractions, that should be tuned to be a tool for deactivation and temperature profiles prediction.

Over expression of AdeABC and AcrAB-TolC efflux systems confers tigecycline resistance in clinical isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii and Klebsiella pneumoniae

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Due to the wide use of tigecycline in the treatment of severe infections caused by multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria, clinical resistance to tigecycline has increased in recent years. Here, we investigated the relationship between tigecycline resistance and the expression of efflux pumps. METHODS: Clinical isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii and Klebsiella pneumoniae were consecutively collected from hospitalized patients in three hospitals. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of tigecycline was determined using the broth microdilution method. Expression levels of efflux pump genes and regulators were examined by quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The correlations between tigecycline MICs and gene expression levels were analyzed. RESULTS: Overall, 1,026 A. baumannii and 725 K. pneumoniae strains were collected. Most strains were isolated from sputum. The tigecycline resistance rate was 13.4% in A. baumannii isolates and 6.5% in K. pneumoniae isolates. Overexpression of AdeABC and AcrAB-TolC efflux systems was observed found in clinical tigecycline-resistant isolates. The tigecycline MIC had a linear relationship with the adeB expression level in A. baumannii isolates, but not with the acrB expression level in K. pneumoniae isolates. There were significant linear trends in the overexpression of ramA as the tigecycline MIC increased in K. pneumoniae isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Tigecycline resistance in A. baumannii and K. pneumoniae was strongly associated with the overexpression of efflux systems. More studies are needed to elucidate whether there are other regulators that affect the expression of adeB in A. baumannii and how ramA affects the expression of acrB in K. pneumoniae.

Rely-guarantee protocols for safe interference over shared memory

Mutable state can be useful in certain algorithms, to structure programs, or for efficiency purposes. However, when shared mutable state is used in non-local or nonobvious ways, the interactions that can occur via aliases to that shared memory can be a source of program errors. Undisciplined uses of shared state may unsafely interfere with local reasoning as other aliases may interleave their changes to the shared state in unexpected ways. We propose a novel technique, rely-guarantee protocols, that structures the interactions between aliases and ensures that only safe interference is possible. We present a linear type system outfitted with our novel sharing mechanism that enables controlled interference over shared mutable resources. Each alias is assigned separate, local roles encoded in a protocol abstraction that constrains how an alias can legally use that shared state. By following the spirit of rely-guarantee reasoning, our rely-guarantee protocols ensure that only safe interference can occur but still allow many interesting uses of shared state, such as going beyond invariant and monotonic usages. This thesis describes the three core mechanisms that enable our type-based technique to work: 1) we show how a protocol models an alias’s perspective on how the shared state evolves and constrains that alias’s interactions with the shared state; 2) we show how protocols can be used while enforcing the agreed interference contract; and finally, 3) we show how to check that all local protocols to some shared state can be safely composed to ensure globally safe interference over that shared memory. The interference caused by shared state is rooted at how the uses of di↵erent aliases to that state may be interleaved (perhaps even in non-deterministic ways) at run-time. Therefore, our technique is mostly agnostic as to whether this interference was the result of alias interleaving caused by sequential or concurrent semantics. We show implementations of our technique in both settings, and highlight their di↵erences. Because sharing is “first-class” (and not tied to a module), we show a polymorphic procedure that enables abstract compositions of protocols. Thus, protocols can be specialized or extended without requiring specific knowledge of the interference produce by other protocols to that state. We show that protocol composition can ensure safety even when considering abstracted protocols. We show that this core composition mechanism is sound, decidable (without the need for manual intervention), and provide an algorithm implementation.

Changes in the floristic composition of a Terra Firme rain forest In Brazilian Amazonia over an eight-year period In response to logging

Changes in the floristic composition over an eight-year period in a logged area at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazilian Amazonia arc discussed. Two treatments of different intensities of logging were compared with an undisturbed (control) forest. Data were collected from permanent sample-plots. The effects of logging on floristic composition were stronger in the more heavily logged treatment. The number of species decreased immediately after logging, but started to increase before the fifth year after logging and was higher at the end of the study period than before logging. The more heavily logged plots responded more to disturbances, as judged by the increase in the number of species during the period after logging. This forest appears to recover its initial floristic composition after disturbance without intervention.

Growth rate of a terra firme rain forest in Brazilian Amazonia over an eight-year period in response to logging

This paper deals with growth rates of trees > 5cm dbh over an eight-year period from 257 species at the Tapajós National Forest. The discussion is centred on the behaviour of the forest after logging. Permanent sample plots were established in 1981 and measured at the first time. The area was logged in 1982. Measurements after logging occurred in 1983, 1987 and 1989. Considering all species together, diameter increment was similar for both intensities of logging until five years after logging. Light-demanding species showed significantly higher growth rates than shade-tolerant species in the logged forest, with greater increment in the heavier treatment intensity. Commercial species also had higher growth rates in the heavier logged area, although those were significantly different only in the period from one to five years after logging. In the undisturbed forest, growth rates increased with increasing dbh size. At species level, growth rate varied between and within treatments, as well as between trees within species, depending mainly on degree of canopy opening. The logging favoured the growth of commercial species, chiefly the light-demanders. Therefore, if the same growth conditions continue being given, for example by silvicultural treatments, to those species of commercial interest, the forest would reach a stock available for harvesting around year 30 after logging. However, the high variation in increment rates indicates that an eight-year period is not sufficient to allow predictions on cutting cycles or polycyclic management systems for the study forest.

Changes in population and land use over time in the Ecuadorian Amazon

This paper draws upon a detailed longitudinal survey of households living on agricultural plots in the northern three provinces of the Ecuadorian Amazon, the principal region of colonization by migrants in Ecuador since the 1970s. Following the discovery of petroleum in 1967 near what has subsequently come to be the provincial capital and largest Amazonian city of Lago Agrio, oil companies built roads to lay pipelines to extract and pump oil across the Andes for export. As a result, for the past 30 years over half of both Ecuador's export earnings and government revenues have come from petroleum extracted from this region. But the roads also facilitated massive spontaneous in-migration of families from origin areas in the Ecuadorian Sierra, characterized by minifundia and rural poverty. This paper is about those migrants and their effects on the Amazonian landscape. We discuss the data collection methodology and summarize key results on settler characteristics and changes in population, land use, land ownership, technology, labor allocation, and living conditions, as well as the relationships between changes in population and changes in land use over time. The population in the study region has been growing rapidly due to both natural population growth (high fertility) and in-migration. This has led to a dramatic process of subdivision and fragmentation of plots in the 1990's, which contrasts with the consolidation of plots that has occurred in most of the mature frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon. This fragmentation has led to important changes in land tenure and land use, deforestation, cattle raising, labor allocation, and settler welfare.

Does nitrogen availability have greater control over the formation of tropical heath forests than water stress?A hypothesis based on nitrogen isotope ratios

Global scale analyses of soil and foliage δ15N have found positive relationships between δ15N and ecosystem N loss (suggesting an open N cycle) and a negative relationship between δ15N and water availability. We show here that soils and leaves from tropical heath forests are depleted in 15N relative to 'typical' forests suggesting that they have a tight N cycle and are therefore limited by N rather than by, often suggested, water availability.

Determination of the top-quark pole mass using t(t)over-bar+1-jet events collected with the ATLAS experiment in 7 TeV pp collisions

The normalized differential cross section for top-quark pair production in association with at least one jet is studied as a function of the inverse of the invariant mass of the tt¯+1-jet system. This distribution can be used for a precise determination of the top-quark mass since gluon radiation depends on the mass of the quarks. The experimental analysis is based on proton--proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The selected events were identified using the lepton+jets top-quark-pair decay channel, where lepton refers to either an electron or a muon. The observed distribution is compared to a theoretical prediction at next-to-leading-order accuracy in quantum chromodynamics using the pole-mass scheme. With this method, the measured value of the top-quark pole mass, mpolet, is: mpolet =173.7 ± 1.5 (stat.) ± 1.4 (syst.) +1.0−0.5 (theory) GeV. This result represents the most precise measurement of the top-quark pole mass to date.

Measurement of the t(t)over-barW and t(t)over-barZ production cross sections in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production cross sections of top-quark pairs in association with massive vector bosons have been measured using data from pp collisions at s√=8 TeV. The dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector in 2012 at the LHC. Final states with two, three or four leptons are considered. A fit to the data considering the tt¯W and tt¯Z processes simultaneously yields a significance of 5.0σ (4.2σ) over the background-only hypothesis for tt¯W (tt¯Z) production. The measured cross sections are σtt¯W=369+100−91 fb and σtt¯Z=176+58−52 fb. The background-only hypothesis with neither tt¯W nor tt¯Z production is excluded at 7.1σ. All measurements are consistent with next-to-leading-order calculations for the tt¯W and tt¯Z processes.

A search for t(t)over-bar resonances using lepton-plus-jets events in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for new particles that decay into top quark pairs is reported. The search is performed with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC using an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The lepton-plus-jets final state is used, where the top pair decays to W+bW−b¯¯, with one W boson decaying leptonically and the other hadronically. The invariant mass spectrum of top quark pairs is examined for local excesses or deficits that are inconsistent with the Standard Model predictions. No evidence for a top quark pair resonance is found, and 95% confidence-level limits on the production rate are determined for massive states in benchmark models. The upper limits on the cross-section times branching ratio of a narrow Z′ boson decaying to top pairs range from 4.2 pb to 0.03 pb for resonance masses from 0.4 TeV to 3.0 TeV. A narrow leptophobic topcolour Z′ boson with mass below 1.8 TeV is excluded. Upper limits are set on the cross-section times branching ratio for a broad colour-octet resonance with Γ/m = 15% decaying to tt¯. These range from 4.8 pb to 0.03 pb for masses from 0.4 TeV to 3.0 TeV. A Kaluza-Klein excitation of the gluon in a Randall-Sundrum model is excluded for masses below 2.2 TeV.

Measurement of colour flow with the jet pull angle in t(t)over-bar events using the ATLAS detector at root s=8 TeV

The distribution and orientation of energy inside jets is predicted to be an experimental handle on colour connections between the hard--scatter quarks and gluons initiating the jets. This Letter presents a measurement of the distribution of one such variable, the jet pull angle. The pull angle is measured for jets produced in tt¯ events with one W boson decaying leptonically and the other decaying to jets using 20.3 fb−1 of data recorded with the ATLAS detector at a centre--of--mass energy of s√=8 TeV at the LHC. The jet pull angle distribution is corrected for detector resolution and acceptance effects and is compared to various models.

All over the place localization system

The MAP-i Doctoral Programme in Informatics, of the Universities of Minho, Aveiro and Porto