Seeking theta's desperately: Estimating the distribution of consumers under increasing block rates

This paper shows that the distribution of observed consumption is not a good proxy for the distribution of heterogeneous consumers when the current tariff is an increasing block tariff. We use a two step method to recover the "true" distribution of consumers. First, we estimate the demand function induced by the current tariff. Second, using the demand system, we specify the distribution of consumers as a function of observed consumption to recover the true distribution. Finally, we design a new two-part tariff which allows us to evaluate the equity of the existence of an increasing block tariff.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Sweepstakes Mail Threatens Older Iowans, April 2007

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Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Gift Card Fact Sheet – and Tips for Consumers, December 2007

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Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Sweepstakes Mail Threatens Older Iowans, April 2007

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Selling to consumers with endogenous types

For many goods (such as experience goods or addictive goods), consumers preferences may change over time. In this paper, we examine a monopolist s optimal pricing schedule when current consumption can affect a consumer s valuation in the future and valuations are unobservable. We assume that consumers are anonymous, i.e. the monopolist can t observe a consumer s past consumption history. For myopic consumers, the optimal consumption schedule is distorted upwards, involving substantial discounts for low valuation types. This pushes low types into higher valuations, from which rents can be extracted.For forward looking consumers, there may be a further upward distortion of consumption due to a reversal of the adverse selection effect; low valuation consumers now have a strong interest in consumption in order to increase their valuations. Firms will find it profitable to educate consumers and encourage forward looking behavior.

My older sibling was drunk - younger siblings' drunkenness in relation to parental monitoring and the parent-adolescent relationship.

This study explored the links between having older siblings who get drunk, satisfaction with the parent-adolescent relationship, parental monitoring, and adolescents' risky drinking. Regression models were conducted based on a national representative sample of 3725 8th to 10th graders in Switzerland (mean age 15.0, SD = .93) who indicated having older siblings. Results showed that both parental factors and older siblings' drinking behaviour shape younger siblings' frequency of risky drinking. Parental monitoring showed a linear dose-response relationship, and siblings' influence had an additive effect. There was a non-linear interaction effect between parent-adolescent relationship and older sibling's drunkenness. The findings suggest that, apart from avoiding an increasingly unsatisfactory relationship with their children, parental monitoring appears to be important in preventing risky drinking by their younger children, even if the older sibling drinks in such a way. However, a satisfying relationship with parents does not seem to be sufficient to counterbalance older siblings' influence.

Supermarket key attributes and location decisions: A comparative study between British and Spanish consumers

The Maximum Capture problem (MAXCAP) is a decision model that addresses the issue of location in a competitive environment. This paper presents a new approach to determine which store s attributes (other than distance) should be included in the newMarket Capture Models and how they ought to be reflected using the Multiplicative Competitive Interaction model. The methodology involves the design and development of a survey; and the application of factor analysis and ordinary least squares. Themethodology has been applied to the supermarket sector in two different scenarios: Milton Keynes (Great Britain) and Barcelona (Spain).

Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure risk in older adults: the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

Eliciting consumers preferences using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent ranking versus choice experiment

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to carry out a theoreticalreview of the most recent stated preference techniques used foreliciting consumers preferences and, secondly, to compare the empiricalresults of two dierent stated preference discrete choice approaches.They dier in the measurement scale for the dependent variable and,therefore, in the estimation method, despite both using a multinomiallogit. One of the approaches uses a complete ranking of full-profiles(contingent ranking), that is, individuals must rank a set ofalternatives from the most to the least preferred, and the other usesa first-choice rule in which individuals must select the most preferredoption from a choice set (choice experiment). From the results werealize how important the measurement scale for the dependent variablebecomes and, to what extent, procedure invariance is satisfied.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Consumer “Private Right of Action” -- What Consumers Need to Know, August 2009

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The relationship between fear of falling and foot clearance in older people

Introduction : Fear of falling (FOF) is associated with falls and modifications in gait parameters. Foot clearance during walking is directly linked to tripping and falling. The relationship between FOF and foot Downloaded from http://gerontologist.oxfordjournals.org/ at Université & EPFL Lausanne on January 23, 2013 436 The Gerontological Society of America clearance has never been evaluated. Methods : Participants (N=568, aged 66 to 71 years, 57.2% women) underwent gait parameters measurements using footworn sensors. Specific foot clearance parameters evaluated included maximal and minimal heel and toe clearances and their variability. FOF was assessed using a single question. Results : Overall, 27.4% of the participants reported FOF. Compared to the others, participants with FOF had decreased maximal heel (28.9 vs 30.4 cm, p<.001) and toe clearance (12.5 vs 13.8 cm, p<.001), and decreased minimal toe clearance variability (SD 3.7 vs 4.0 cm, p<.001). Conclusion : These preliminary results suggest a relationship between FOF and foot clearance parameters. Multivariate analyses are underway.

The trail making test as a screening instrument for driving performance in older drivers; a translational research.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, primary care physicians determine whether or not older drivers are fit to drive. Little, however, is known regarding the effects of cognitive decline on driving performance and the means to detect it. This study explores to what extent the trail making test (TMT) can provide indications to clinicians about their older patients' on-road driving performance in the context of cognitive decline. METHODS: This translational study was nested within a cohort study and an exploratory psychophysics study. The target population of interest was constituted of older drivers in the absence of important cognitive or physical disorders. We therefore recruited and tested 404 home-dwelling drivers, aged 70 years or more and in possession of valid drivers' licenses, who volunteered to participate in a driving refresher course. Forty-five drivers also agreed to undergo further testing at our lab. On-road driving performance was evaluated by instructors during a 45 minute validated open-road circuit. Drivers were classified as either being excellent, good, moderate, or poor depending on their score on a standardized evaluation of on-road driving performance. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operator curve for detecting poorly performing drivers was 0.668 (CI95% 0.558 to 0.778) for the TMT-A, and 0.662 (CI95% 0.542 to 0.783) for the TMT-B. TMT was related to contrast sensitivity, motion direction, orientation discrimination, working memory, verbal fluency, and literacy. Older patients with a TMT-A ≥ 54 seconds or a TMT-B ≥ 150 seconds have a threefold (CI95% 1.3 to 7.0) increased risk of performing poorly during the on-road evaluation. TMT had a sensitivity of 63.6%, a specificity of 64.9%, a positive predictive value of 9.5%, and a negative predictive value of 96.9%. CONCLUSION: In screening settings, the TMT would have clinicians uselessly consider driving cessation in nine drivers out of ten. Given the important negative impact this could have on older drivers, this study confirms the TMT not to be specific enough for clinicians to justify driving cessation without complementary investigations on driving behaviors.

Mortality associated with diabetes mellitus in comparison with history of cardiovascular disease in older women.

BACKGROUND: Women with diabetes mellitus have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and current treatment guidelines consider diabetes to be equivalent to existing CVD, but few data exist about the relative importance of these risk factors for total and cause-specific mortality in older women. METHODS: We studied 9704 women aged ≥65 years enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures) during a mean follow-up of 13 years and compared all-cause, CVD and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality among non-diabetic women without and with a prior history of CVD at baseline and diabetic women without and with a prior history of CVD. Diabetes mellitus and prior CVD (history of angina, myocardial infarction or stroke) were defined as self-report of physician diagnoses. Cause of death was adjudicated from death certificates and medical records when available (>95% deaths confirmed). Ascertainment of vital status was 99% complete. Log-rank tests for the rates of death and multivariate Cox hazard models adjusted for age, smoking, physical activity, systolic blood pressure, waist girth and education were used to compare mortality among the four groups with non-diabetic women without CVD as the referent group. Results are reported as adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: At baseline mean age was 71.7±5.3 years, 7.0% reported diabetes mellitus and 14.5% reported prior CVD. 4257 women died during follow-up, 36.6% were attributed to CVD. The incidence of CVD death per 1000 person-years was 9.9 and 21.6 among non-diabetic women without and with CVD, respectively, and 23.8 and 33.3 among diabetic women without and with CVD, respectively. Compared to nondiabetic women without prior CVD, the risk of CVD mortality was elevated among both non-diabetic women with CVD (HR=1.82, CI: 1.60-2.07, P<0.001) and diabetic women without prior CVD (HR=2.24, CI: 1.87-2.69, P<0.001). CVD mortality was highest among diabetic women with CVD (HR=3.41, CI: 2.61-4.45, P<0.001). Compared to non-diabetic women with CVD, diabetic women without prior CVD had a significantly higher adjusted HR for total and CVD mortality (P<0.001 and P<0.05 respectively). CHD mortality did not differ significantly between non-diabetic women with CVD and diabetic women without prior CVD. CONCLUSION: Older diabetic women without prior CVD have a higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality and a similar risk of CHD mortality compared to non-diabetic women with pre-existing CVD. For older women, these data support the equivalence of prior CVD and diabetes mellitus in current guidelines for the prevention of CVD.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin; New Protections for Credit Card Consumers, March 2010

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